Tuesday, April 8, 2025

What is the Tariff Endgame?

The hopeful tariff endgame isn’t so hopeful
https://www.ft.com/content/91879b7b-c492-4329-a412-ab597ca96b04
Jason Furman:
A hopeful endgame for the tariff fiasco is making the rounds on Wall Street and in Washington. Donald Trump cuts quick deals with countries around the world, declares victory, and eliminates or dramatically reduces the “reciprocal” tariffs, leaving only the 10 per cent across-the-board ones plus miscellaneous others like steel and aluminium. The hope is that markets would cheer the certainty, businesses would return to planning for their futures, and everyone could turn their attention elsewhere. That this settlement would be viewed as a victory shows just how far and how quickly the Overton window — or policy ideas regarded as acceptable — has shifted to a tariff rate that would put the US on par with Iran and Venezuela.


Trade Is a Two-Way Street
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trade-is-a-two-way-street-tariffs-policy-economics-global-2f2b5f2a
Trump’s tariffs will make it harder for U.S. exporters to sell their products in foreign markets.
 
Wall Street Bursts with Anger Over Tariff ‘Stupidity’
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/08/business/trump-tariff-wall-street-reaction.html
Billionaire investors are in an unfamiliar position, watching and cringing as tariffs roll on and the stock market reels.
 
For Xi, China’s Strongman Leader, Ceding to Trump Is Not an Option
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/07/world/asia/china-trump-tariffs.html
China sees little to gain in capitulating to President Trump’s tariff threats, labeling them “blackmail” and vowing to “fight to the end.”