Wednesday, April 30, 2025

Front-Loading Distorts US Economic Outlook

BEA on 2025Q1 GDP Advance Estimate
https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2025-advance-estimate
https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-04/gdp1q25-adv.pdf
Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent. The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. 

The Rush to Beat Tariffs Is Distorting the Economy. It Has Barely Started.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/the-rush-to-beat-tariffs-is-distorting-the-economy-it-has-barely-started-5180be1f
Surging U.S. imports, while likely temporary, are frustrating the president’s goal of reducing America’s trade imbalances.

Yes, the U.S. GDP Decline Is an Ominous Sign
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/yes-the-gdp-decline-is-an-ominous-sign-trade-tariffs-economy-policy-6d29f362
It isn’t a statistical artifact but a warning of a real slowdown.


Don’t blame imports for the fall in America’s GDP
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/05/01/dont-blame-imports-for-the-fall-in-americas-gdp
Why what you’ve read about the trade deficit hurting growth is wrong.


Consumer spending soared in March as Americans tried to get ahead of tariffs