Wednesday, April 9, 2025

A Global Trade War Could Generate a GFC

Trade war risks global financial crisis, Bank of England warns
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/04/09/trumps-trade-war-risks-financial-crisis-bank-england-warns/
A steep rise in global tariffs beginning at 5am on Wednesday “had contributed to a material increase in the risks to global growth”, according to the Bank’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC), adding that tit-for-tat action risked “harming financial stability” …
The FPC said: “Risks associated with debt sustainability concerns, including sharp increases in government bond yields, could crystallise relatively quickly, particularly if accompanied by rapid capital outflows. Increased debt levels and servicing costs for governments as debt was refinanced could also reduce their capacity to respond to future shocks.” 

For U.S. and China, a Risky Game of Chicken with No Off-Ramp in Sight
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/09/world/asia/china-us-tariff-trade.html
Neither side wants to look weak by backing down on tariffs. But if their trade relationship collapses, the global consequences could be profound.