Attention Economy


Tuesday, October 24, 2023

The New Normal is the Old Normal

New Normal or No Normal? How Economists Got It Wrong for 3 Years.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/24/business/economy/economy-interest-rates-inflation.html
Economists first underestimated inflation, then underestimated consumers and the labor market. The key question is why.

The Price of Money Is Going Up, and It’s Not Because of the Fed
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-19/why-the-price-of-money-is-going-to-stay-high-for-decades
A model devised by Bloomberg Economics that looks as far out as 2050 shows Treasury yields may stay as high as 6%.


MY TAKE: 
Traditional recession indicators have misfired — are we in for a sneaky recession?
Will the ‘Great Moderation’ Give Way to the ‘Great Volatility’? By VIVEKANAND JAYAKUMAR
https://www.ut.edu/uploadedFiles/Academics/Business/TBESpring2023_Final.pdf