A coterie of tech insiders believe that “prediction
markets” can fix social ills. Are they right?
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/08/technology/prediction-markets-manifold-manifest.html
The basic idea behind Manifold Markets and similar platforms, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, goes like this: Markets aggregate information. The more information they aggregate, the more accurate they tend to be. And if enough people make enough bets, with enough information behind them, markets can tell you something useful about the future.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/08/technology/prediction-markets-manifold-manifest.html
The basic idea behind Manifold Markets and similar platforms, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, goes like this: Markets aggregate information. The more information they aggregate, the more accurate they tend to be. And if enough people make enough bets, with enough information behind them, markets can tell you something useful about the future.