Money and Sports

The Economic Case for Taxing Star Athletes
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/31/opinion/athletes-pay-tax-mbappe.html
The perennial question is why these athletes are being paid so much more than doctors, scientists and architects, let alone nurses, schoolteachers and firefighters. Some people who think athletes are overpaid will insist that only a sick society would give more money to people playing sports than people saving lives or performing other essential functions.
Economists have a familiar explanation: supply and demand. The supply of star athletes is extremely limited, so they can demand a high price for their (nonessential) services.

Don’t obsess about football selling its soul to Saudi Arabia. It sold itself to big money long ago
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/02/football-saudi-arabia-big-money-cristiano-ronaldo

Related:

How ESPN Went from Disney’s Financial Engine to Its Problem
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/02/business/media/espn-disney.html
The sports juggernaut continues to earn billions of dollars for Disney, but profits are down and opportunities for growth have dwindled.

Do We Really Want to Live in a 'Contactless' World?

The ultra-wealthy want to limit their interactions as they glide through life. But the rest of us want the ‘touch points’ they would rather avoid: ticket sellers, bank branches, customer service assistants you can actually talk to
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/30/billionaires-yearn-for-a-life-free-of-human-contact-and-they-are-imposing-this-on-the-rest-of-us

Investing in EMs

Global investors pivot from flagging China to India, Vietnam
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Global-investors-pivot-from-flagging-China-to-India-Vietnam
China's slow economic recovery and geopolitical risks lead to change in inflows 

Billionaire Mark Mobius says he's so bullish on emerging markets that all his money is outside the US
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/mark-mobius-china-investing-us-taiwan-india-korea-emerging-markets-2023-7 

China' Economic Slowdown

The End of China’s Economic Miracle
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/end-china-economic-miracle-beijing-washington

While Everyone Else Fights Inflation, China Deflation Fears Deepen
https://www.wsj.com/articles/while-everyone-else-fights-inflation-chinas-deflation-fears-deepen-4045cabf

Deflation is curbing China’s economic rise
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/07/27/deflation-is-curbing-chinas-economic-rise

 
Beijing Is Still Too Confident About China’s Economy
https://www.wsj.com/articles/beijing-is-still-too-confident-about-chinas-economy-2c120c5d

The factories on the front line of China’s economic slowdown
https://www.ft.com/content/e9f5cdd9-7fb2-4425-bd32-30739e5819cb
Manufacturers reel from falling demand, rising geopolitical tensions and sluggish post-Covid recovery

How Bad Is China’s Economy? Millions of Young People Are Unemployed and Disillusioned

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-youth-unemployment-xi-jobs-522028c5

 

China’s graduates unconvinced by calls to toil in countryside

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/29/chinas-graduates-unconvinced-by-calls-to-toil-in-countryside  

Related:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/08/business/china-youth-unemployment.html

Mexico’s Strong Peso

The Peso Is Strong and a Problem for Mexicans Working Abroad
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/31/business/strong-peso-mexico-remittances.html 

The Collapse of Local Malls

Stuck in ‘Death Spiral,’ Local Malls Plunge in Value
https://www.wsj.com/articles/local-malls-stuck-in-death-spiral-plunge-in-value-a7998b7d Crystal Mall’s cut-rate sales price shows how rapidly the value of America’s regional malls has deteriorated in recent years. 

Is Gen X Prepared for Retirement?

The Forgotten Generation: Generation X Approaches Retirement
https://www.nirsonline.org/reports/genx/ 

Economic Forecasting - More Art than Science

Why Did Economic Forecasters Get Their Recession Call Wrong?
https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/why-did-economic-forecasters-get-their-recession-call-wrong
 
A Humbling Economy for Economists
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/economic-forecasting-misses-inflation-recession-china-by-jim-o-neill-2023-07 

A US Soft Landing? Even the Fed Doesn’t Believe It
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-08-01/a-us-soft-landing-even-the-fed-doesn-t-believe-it
Unless 3.6% unemployment is the new normal, the central bank has more tightening to do. 
 
Economist Behind Popular Recession Gauge Worries She Created a ‘Monster’
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-01/us-recession-indicator-sahm-rule-might-not-hold-for-2023
Claudia Sahm thinks her eponymous rule may fail this time, meaning the US may dodge a downturn even if unemployment goes up modestly.

MY TAKE: Traditional recession indicators have misfired — are we in for a sneaky recession?

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4121540-traditional-recession-indicators-have-misfired-are-we-in-for-a-sneaky-recession/ 

A Broken Immigration System

America’s Broken Immigration System
https://www.cnn.com/videos/title-2438386

Don’t Blame Canada for Raiding America’s Tech Talent
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/08/01/canada-is-raiding-the-us-for-tech-worker-immigrants/8e06b5fc-3066-11ee-85dd-5c3c97d6acda_story.html
A dysfunctional immigration system is causing high-skilled foreigners to move north. Maybe US policymakers will notice.

 
Lionel Shriver notes:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-problem-with-the-bibby-stockholm-barge/
“New York’s asylum seekers are provided with free health care, free NYC ID, help enrolling children in free public schools, free food, free legal counsel, as well as free accommodation in a city whose average rent for a two-bedroom flat is over $5,000 (£3,900) a month. Bike New York gives asylum seekers free bicycles.
Alas, these gratuities are not free for benefactors. The city is leasing each of the Roosevelt’s 1,025 rooms for 36 months at $200 a day, totalling $219,000 per room. For each migrant family, the average cost of emergency hotels is half as much again at $339 a day. The city expects to spend a budget-busting $4.3 billion on recent migrants”

Immigration Backlashes Spread Around the World
https://www.wsj.com/articles/immigration-backlashes-spread-around-the-world-142124bc
Collapse of Netherlands government is latest sign of discord as immigration surges to record levels, fueling populism 

America’s broken immigration system has spawned a national fight, but Congress lacks the political will to fix it.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/06/19/bidens-dilemma-at-the-border

Related: https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2022/10/the-case-for-selective-immigration.html

Economics of US Trucking Industry

Trucking Giant Yellow Shuts Down Operations
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fall-of-a-trucking-giant-why-yellow-is-on-the-verge-of-collapse-3724f662

Truck drivers are leaving boom-and-bust supply chain jobs
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/07/31/truck-drivers-freight-industry-downturn/ 

Drivers of Low Inflation

Why the Drivers of Lower Inflation Matter
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-the-drivers-of-lower-inflation-matter-fe3f165d 

Climate Change - Economic and Social Impact

MIT Economist Robert Pindyck: Why it’s time to prepare for the worst on climate change
https://www.ft.com/content/2fef1c12-5646-4e8b-b8b7-dbdaf1d213fc
Business and society must invest in adaptation now despite uncertainty about the impact

It’s not just hot. Climate anomalies are emerging around the globe.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/07/31/july-hottest-month-extreme-weather-future/
A glimpse of a more tumultuous future seemed on full display throughout July, a month packed with weather events that exceeded any definition of normal.

A Climate Warning from the Cradle of Civilization
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/29/world/middleeast/iraq-water-crisis-desertification.html
 
These Photos Show How Urban Growth Fuels Extreme Heat
https://www.wsj.com/video/series/news-explainers/these-photos-show-how-urban-growth-fuels-extreme-heat/

Phoenix’s Rapid Growth Magnified Its Vulnerability to Heat
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-28/in-phoenix-record-heat-is-being-fueled-by-urban-sprawl

The Economic Cost of Houston’s Heat: ‘I Don’t Want to Be Here Anymore’

https://www.wsj.com/articles/i-dont-want-to-be-here-anymore-the-economic-cost-of-houstons-heat-3cf69016

Heat Is Costing the U.S. Economy Billions in Lost Productivity
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/31/climate/heat-labor-productivity-climate.html

The Economic Fallout from Extreme Heat Will Rise Over Time
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/18/business/extreme-heat-economy.html
Among the costs of very high temperatures: reduced labor productivity, damaged crops, higher mortality rates, trade disruption and dampened investment.  

The world’s oceans are at temperatures beyond belief. Here’s where they’re hottest.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/07/28/ocean-temperature-maps-heat-records/

The world’s poor need to know about weather disasters ahead of time
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/07/27/the-worlds-poor-need-to-know-about-weather-disasters-ahead-of-time
 
The high-tech race to improve weather forecasting
https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2023/07/26/the-high-tech-race-to-improve-weather-forecasting

As the world boils, a backlash to climate action gains strength
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/31/climate-change-political-right-action-heat-wave-global-boiling/ 

A Benefit Associated with Higher Rates

Everyday Investors Are Thriving in a World Awash in Yield
https://www.wsj.com/articles/everyday-investors-are-thriving-in-a-world-awash-in-yield-2a715361
Cash-like investments are offering their highest rates since 2001, offsetting rising interest costs 

NRA and US Politics

The Secret History of Gun Rights: How Lawmakers Armed the N.R.A.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/30/us/politics/nra-congress-firearms.html
They served in Congress and on the N.R.A.’s board at the same time. Over decades, a small group of legislators led by a prominent Democrat pushed the gun lobby to help transform the law, the courts and views on the Second Amendment. 

Real Estate and Inequality in Europe

Portugal’s bid to attract foreign money backfires as rental market goes ‘crazy’
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/29/portugals-bid-to-attract-foreign-money-backfires-as-rental-market-goes-crazy
 
The English Countryside Is a Place of Profound Inequality
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/29/opinion/british-countryside-working-class.html 

A Bank Heist

"In 2022 news broke that $2.5bn had been stolen in Iraq, the biggest bank heist ever. Nicolas Pelham, The Economist's Middle East correspondent, follows the money"

India Tries to Create an International Finance Hub

India lets companies list on new finance hub to draw foreign cash
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Finance/India-lets-companies-list-on-new-finance-hub-to-draw-foreign-cash
Gujarat International Financial Services Centre modeled on Singapore 

Elon Musk's Satellite Empire

Elon Musk’s Unmatched Power in the Stars
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/07/28/business/starlink.html 

Fiscal Stimulus and US Growth

Infrastructure and green energy spending are powering the economy
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/07/28/federal-infrastructure-spending-economy-manufacturing/ 

Migration and German Politics

The Case for Banning Smartphone Usage in Classrooms

Ban smartphones from schools, says major UN report
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/07/25/smartphones-school-classroom-ban-united-nations-unesco/
Report warns excessive mobile phone use is associated with poor educational performance and emotional instability
 
Related:
https://www.unesco.org/gem-report/en/technology 

SATs and College Performance

The SAT's Predictive Power for College Grades is Systematically Underestimated Because of Range Restriction
https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/let-me-repeat-myself-the-sats-predictive 

Coastal Real Estate and Climate Risk

Coastal Real Estate Can’t Seem to Price Climate Risk
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-07-28/coastal-real-estate-in-places-like-florida-can-t-seem-to-price-climate-risk
Too few homebuyers have the right information to make decisions amid rising sea levels. Some states are moving in the right direction, but not enough. 

The Soft Landing Debate

MY TAKE: Traditional recession indicators have misfired — are we in for a sneaky recession?

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4121540-traditional-recession-indicators-have-misfired-are-we-in-for-a-sneaky-recession/ 

Soft Landing Optimism Is Everywhere. That’s Happened Before.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/27/business/economy/fed-economy-soft-landing.html
People are often sure that the economy is going to settle down gently right before it plunges into recession, a reason for caution and humility.

The U.S. Economy Is Sticking the Soft Landing
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-the-u-s-economy-is-sticking-the-soft-landing-cf140c04

Recession Odds Just Got Longer

https://www.wsj.com/articles/recession-odds-just-got-longer-7733970

Could a Recession Still Be Years Away? Soft Landing Could Deliver Another Extended Economic Cycle
https://www.wsj.com/articles/could-a-recession-still-be-years-away-soft-landing-could-deliver-another-extended-economic-cycle-e7e2c4ee 

U.S. Economy Grew at 2.4% Rate in Second Quarter
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/27/business/economy/us-economy-gdp-q2.html
Related:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/07/27/gdp-q2-2023-economy/

The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates again. When should it stop?
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/27/briefing/federal-reserve-rate-increase.html

Challenges Facing K-12 Education

Declining education degrees compound problems in the classroom
https://thehill.com/homenews/education/4121008-declining-education-degrees-compound-problems-in-the-classroom/
 
Fear and loathing in the American high school system
https://www.ft.com/content/0f348d7d-bfdc-49f4-b5b2-f2398422f429
Related: https://www.nber.org/papers/w31434 

We're Using More Oil Than Ever

The Harsh Truth: We're Using More Oil Than Ever
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-07-27/the-harsh-truth-is-we-ve-never-consumed-this-much-oil 

Related:

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230726-an-experts-guide-to-peak-oil-and-what-it-really-means

Will the West and China Decouple?

Europe Is Torn on China
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/07/24/europe-china-decoupling-derisking-european-union/ 

How US politicians are mangling the economic debate over decoupling from China
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3229041/how-us-politicians-are-mangling-economic-debate-over-decoupling-china
 

UT Economics Department Flyer

University of Tampa – New 2023 Economics Department Flyer
http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ac43d0b8#/ac43d0b8/1 

Robert Solow - Words of Wisdom

Robert Solow’s Career

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/614860/the-productive-career-of-robert-solow/ 

Related:

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2011/03/pdf/people.pdf 

Gerontocracy Hurts US Politics

It's time for Biden and his entire gerontocrat cohort to step down. They are past it
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/07/27/biden-mcconnell-old-age-retire-us-politicians-gerontocracy/
Republicans tend somewhat gracelessly to share these frequent ‘Biden fails’ online. But yesterday’s Mitch episode shows that Washington’s gerontocratic slide is bi-partisan.The Grand Old Party, as the Republicans are often called, lives up to its name in more ways than one. Chuck Grassley, the current Republican president pro tempore of the Senate, is now 89 years old. And Donald J Trump, the overwhelming favourite to be the Republican presidential nominee next year, will be 78 by the time next year’s elections come around. 

Public Sector Jobs

Jobs Sit Empty in the Public Sector, So Unions Pitch in to Recruit
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/27/business/economy/local-government-jobs-unions.html
Shortages of state and city personnel, especially those who must work on site, are so dire that unions are helping to get people in the door. 

Critique of DEI

Diversity Programs Miss the Point of a Liberal College Education
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/27/opinion/christopher-rufo-diversity-desantis-florida-university.html
The right sees the abolition of D.E.I. as a step toward meritocracy, while the left sees it as an attack on minority rights. But moving beyond reflexive partisanship, there is a strong argument for abolishing D.E.I. programs on liberal grounds. 

Inflation Battle Continues

Companies Aren’t Eager to Cut Their Prices as Costs Fall
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/26/opinion/inflation-greedflation-prices-profits.html
 
Companies Push Prices Higher, Protecting Profits but Adding to Inflation
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/30/business/economy/inflation-companies-profits-higher-prices.html
 
Federal Reserve Raises Interest Rates to 22-Year High
https://www.wsj.com/articles/federal-reserve-raises-interest-rates-to-22-year-high-3c3e499c
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/07/26/fed-july-interest-rate-hike/ 

What Fed Hikes? Much of Americans’ Debt Is Still Riding Ultralow Rates
https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-fed-hikes-much-of-americas-consumer-debt-is-still-riding-ultralow-rates-e10ab199

Youth Unemployment in China

China’s Soaring Youth Unemployment Threatens Xi’s Economic Vision
https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-youth-unemployment-xi-jobs-522028c5   

Credit Concerns

Credit Markets Are Creaking, Creating Economic Uncertainty
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/26/business/credit-markets-uncertainty-interest-rates.html
Analysts warn that bankruptcies and defaults could jump as the world adjusts to higher interest rates. 

Inflation-Linked Bonds

The World Tied $3.5 Trillion-Plus of Debt to Inflation. The Costs Are Now Adding Up.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-world-tied-3-5-trillion-plus-of-debt-to-inflation-the-costs-are-now-adding-up-b8db69d5 

The Fed - History

 

Where are US Equities Headed?

After a Misjudged First Half, Strategists Face a Short Squeeze
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-07-21/short-squeeze-market-strategists-try-getting-the-rest-of-2023-right
 
‘We Were Wrong’: Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Offers Stocks Mea Culpa
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-24/-we-were-wrong-morgan-stanley-s-wilson-offers-stocks-mea-culpa
 
Meme Stocks Are Back, Raising a ‘Red Flag’ for the Broader Market
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-11/meme-stocks-are-back-waving-a-short-term-red-flag-for-s-p-500
 
BIG PICTURE:
Forget 5 Months. Where Will Markets Be in 3, 7 or 10 Years?
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-07-24/market-forecasts-short-term-lack-of-method-long-term-likelihood-of-meh
Shorter-term forecasts are less likely to be accurate. But even a decade from now, a repeat of the equity gains we’ve come to expect looks unlikely.

MNC Tax Arbitrage and Euro Area Macro Data

Swings in Ireland’s pharmaceutical industry, often rooted in tax moves by U.S.-based firms, have outsize impact on European output.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-u-s-drug-companies-could-tip-europe-into-recession-aa6f34cf 

Labor Supply, Inflation, and Monetary Policy

A Flood of New Workers Has Made the Fed’s Job Less Painful. Can It Persist?
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/24/business/economy/labor-supply-federal-reserve.html
 
The share of people between 25 and 54 either working or seeking jobs rose this year to the highest level since 2002.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/americans-working-job-market-prime-age-9fdc339b
 
Why the Fed Isn’t Ready to Declare Victory on Inflation
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-the-fed-isnt-ready-to-declare-victory-on-inflation-e882b4d9 

Controversies Surrounding the Admissions Process at Elite US Colleges

How Ivy League Schools Tilt Your Odds in the Lottery of Life
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-ivy-league-schools-tilt-your-odds-in-the-lottery-of-life-590f8ec1
Smart, diligent students will prosper no matter their alma mater. Yet for a few, a top college is the difference between doing well and reaching the top.

Study of Elite College Admissions Data Suggests Being Very Rich Is Its Own Qualification
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/07/24/upshot/ivy-league-elite-college-admissions.html
The new data shows that among students with the same test scores, the colleges gave preference to the children of alumni and to recruited athletes, and gave children from private schools higher nonacademic ratings. The result is the clearest picture yet of how America’s elite colleges perpetuate the intergenerational transfer of wealth and opportunity.
“What I conclude from this study is the Ivy League doesn’t have low-income students because it doesn’t want low-income students,” said Susan Dynarski, an economist at the Harvard Graduate School of Education, who has reviewed the data and was not involved in the study.
In effect, the study shows, these policies amounted to affirmative action for the children of the 1 percent, whose parents earn more than $611,000 a year. It comes as colleges are being forced to rethink their admissions processes after the Supreme Court ruling that race-based affirmative action is unconstitutional.
 
Related:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/24/briefing/college-admissions-elite-students.html
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2023/07/americas-elite-colleges-rhetoric-versus.html
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2023/07/the-case-for-active-meritocracy-in.html
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2023/07/why-affirmative-action-does-not-matter.html
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2023/06/race-and-college-admissions.html
 
 
Diversifying Society’s Leaders? The Determinants and Causal Effects of
Admission to Highly Selective Private Colleges
https://opportunityinsights.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/CollegeAdmissions_Paper.pdf
Abstract
Leadership positions in the U.S. are disproportionately held by graduates of a few highly selective private colleges. Could such colleges — which currently have many more students from high-income families than low-income families — increase the socioeconomic diversity of America’s leaders by changing their admissions policies? We use anonymized admissions data from several private and public colleges linked to income tax records and SAT and ACT test scores to study this question. Children from families in the top 1% are more than twice as likely to attend an Ivy-Plus college (Ivy League, Stanford, MIT, Duke, and Chicago) as those from middle-class families with comparable SAT/ACT scores. Two-thirds of this gap is due to higher admissions rates for students with comparable test scores from high-income families; the remaining third is due to differences in rates of application and matriculation. In contrast, children from high-income families have no admissions advantage at flagship public colleges. The high-income admissions advantage at private colleges is driven by three factors: (1) preferences for children of alumni, (2) weight placed on non-academic credentials, which tend to be stronger for students applying from private high schools that have affluent student bodies, and (3) recruitment of athletes, who tend to come from higher-income families. Using a new research design that isolates idiosyncratic variation in admissions decisions for waitlisted applicants, we show that attending an Ivy-Plus college instead of the average highly selective public flagship institution increases students’ chances of reaching the top 1% of the earnings distribution by 60%, nearly doubles their chances of attending an elite graduate school, and triples their chances of working at a prestigious firm. Ivy-Plus colleges have much smaller causal effects on average earnings, reconciling our findings with prior work that found smaller causal effects using variation in matriculation decisions conditional on admission. Adjusting for the value-added of the colleges that students attend, the three key factors that give children from high-income families an admissions advantage are uncorrelated or negatively correlated with post-college outcomes, whereas SAT/ACT scores and academic credentials are highly predictive of post-college success. We conclude that highly selective private colleges currently amplify the persistence of privilege across generations, but could diversify the socioeconomic backgrounds of America’s leaders by changing their admissions practices. 

America needs to stop relying on the choices made by elite colleges

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/07/30/college-admissions-elite-ivy-rich/

AI and the Pace of Tech Adoption

Your employer is (probably) unprepared for artificial intelligence
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/07/16/your-employer-is-probably-unprepared-for-artificial-intelligence 

Can AI Replace Humans? We Went to the Fast-Food Drive-Through to Find Out
https://www.wsj.com/articles/can-ai-replace-humans-we-went-to-the-fast-food-drive-through-to-find-out-193c03e9

Related:

Why is technology not making us more productive?
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-66233654

Inflation Battle: Mission Accomplished?

Discombobulation, Recombobulation and Disinflation
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/21/opinion/inflation-federal-reserve.html 

Active versus Passive Investing in the Era of Big Tech

Big tech’s dominance is straining the logic of passive investing
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/07/20/big-techs-dominance-is-straining-the-logic-of-passive-investing
Both index providers and fund managers must adjust to the dominance of a few firms 

Assessing Florida's Covid Response

The Steep Cost of Ron DeSantis’s Vaccine Turnabout
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/22/us/politics/ron-desantis-covid.html
Once a vaccine advocate, the Florida governor lost his enthusiasm for the shot before the Delta wave sent Covid hospitalizations and deaths soaring. It’s a grim chapter he now leaves out of his rosy retelling of his pandemic response. 

Transforming Mumbai

US Foreign Aid Priorities

With Israel, It’s Time to Start Discussing the Unmentionable
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/22/opinion/israel-military-aid.html
Israel is in the headlines, evoking tumultuous debate. Yet one topic remains largely unmentionable, so let me gingerly raise it: Is it time to think about phasing out American aid for Israel down the road?
This is not about whacking Israel. But does it really make sense for the United States to provide the enormous sum of $3.8 billion annually to another wealthy country? 

AI and College Degrees

Will AI Finally End Our Love Affair with College?
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-07-22/will-ai-finally-end-our-love-affair-with-college
Enrollments to university are down and the threat to white-collar jobs is rising. Perhaps we are ready to value trade and vocational schools a little bit more.
 
Related:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/07/22/will-ai-finally-end-our-love-affair-with-college/96922d24-288b-11ee-9201-826e5bb78fa1_story.html 

Inflation in Florida

Here’s why Florida’s inflation is so high
https://thehill.com/changing-america/4110288-heres-why-floridas-inflation-is-so-high/
The state’s rocky housing market is mostly to blame. 

A Sensible Bet on India

Western leaders are making a sensible bet on India
https://www.ft.com/content/c9de715e-2e29-4a7f-880b-1509c04bf11b
Its population and economy are both forecast to grow rapidly over coming decades, offering a counterweight to China 

India can be a bigger winner in the supply chain shift from China
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/India-can-be-a-bigger-winner-in-the-supply-chain-shift-from-China

Modi pitches India as 'reliable' base for chipmaking
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Modi-pitches-India-as-reliable-base-for-chipmaking

Related:

The Movement Shaping a Modern India
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-movement-shaping-a-modern-india-rss-modi-hindu-nationalism-e70586d9

UK’s Economic Travails

Britain’s Conservative government faces a morass of problems, some new, others longstanding, that are stymying Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/19/world/europe/sunak-uk-economy-inflation.html
 
Economic complacency is creating a chasm between British and American living standards
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/07/22/us-economy-productivity-salaries-higher-uk-growth/ 

What if Profit-Maximization is the Primary/Sole Objective

How a Drug Maker Profited by Slow-Walking a Promising H.I.V. Therapy
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/22/business/gilead-hiv-drug-tenofovir.html
Gilead delayed a new version of a drug, allowing it to extend the patent life of a blockbuster line of medications, internal documents show. 

Related:

Drugmakers Are ‘Throwing the Kitchen Sink’ to Halt Medicare Price Negotiations
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/23/us/politics/medicare-drug-price-negotiations-lawsuits.html
The government will soon announce the first 10 medications that will be subject to price negotiations with Medicare under a new law. Drugmakers are fighting the measure in court.

Insurance Turmoil Hits California and Florida Residents

Why California and Florida Have Become Almost Uninsurable
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/21/opinion/california-florida-insurance-climate-change.html 

How Florida let a top insurer abandon homeowners in their time of greatest need
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/08/04/how-florida-let-top-insurer-abandon-homeowners-their-time-greatest-need/

Reassessing Recession Risks

Could America’s economy escape recession?
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2023/07/20/could-americas-economy-escape-recession

US Recession Becomes Closer Call as Economists Rethink Forecasts
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-21/us-recession-becomes-closer-call-as-economists-rethink-forecasts
 
Could the Recession in the Distance Be Just a Mirage?
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/19/business/economy/economy-soft-landing.html 

The Markets Are Counting on the Fed to Solve a Tricky Puzzle
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/21/business/fed-inflation-recession.html
Lowering inflation to 2 percent without causing a recession and throwing people out of work would be a rare achievement. The markets are acting as if it has already happened.

The Bear Market Has Nearly Been Erased, Fewer Than 20 Months After It Began
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-21/s-p-500-s-great-bear-market-unwinding-is-happening-at-a-frenetic-clip

Related:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/soft-landing-is-powell-most-successful-fed-chief-ever-mcgeever-2023-07-18/

My take from May 2023:

Did we just dodge a recession? 
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4024671-did-we-just-dodge-a-recession/

US Payments System Enters the Twenty First Century

What the Federal Reserve’s new FedNow payment system means for you
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/07/20/federal-reserve-fednow-payments/
 
Related:
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/fed-set-launch-long-awaited-instant-payments-service-modernizing-system-2023-07-20/

Labor Hours

How Working Hours May Be a Recession Indicator | WSJ

Good Times for the Airline Sector

Airlines Are Thriving as People Keep Traveling
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/20/business/airlines-profits-summer-travel.html
Three large U.S. airlines have reported strong quarterly sales and profits in recent days because of strong demand, high fares and relatively low fuel prices. 

The Post-Pandemic US Economy

The Pandemic’s Labor Market Myths
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/19/business/economy/pandemic-labor-market-myths.html
Amid the pandemic, people thought the labor market had permanently changed in important ways. It was a bad bet.

Homeowners Don’t Want to Sell, So Home Builders Are Booming.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-home-sales-boom-builders-6c736630
High mortgage rates are dissuading sellers, leaving new construction the only game in town; ‘there was no inventory’ 

Don’t Let Inflation Bury the Memory of a Government Triumph

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/20/opinion/inflation-pandemic-wages-unemployment.html

Is Tampa Becoming a Cool Destination?

Tampa: Why Gen Z and Millennial Tourists Are Flocking to This Retirement Mecca
https://www.wsj.com/articles/tampa-why-gen-z-and-millennial-tourists-are-flocking-to-this-retirement-mecca-1e2be027
Miami? Passé. Thanks to an influx of young travelers and residents drawn by its food and bar scene—and its walkability—this sleepy Sun Belt city is waking up fast. 

Tech and Jobs: The Rise and Fall of Telephone Operators

Telephone operation was a good career for women. Then it got automated.
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2023/7/18/23794187/telephone-operator-switchboard-automation-att-feigenbaum-gross
 
Answering the Call of Automation: How the Labor Market Adjusted to the Mechanization of Telephone Operation
https://www.nber.org/papers/w28061
Abstract
Telephone operation was among the most common jobs for young American women in the early 1900s. Between 1920 and 1940, AT&T adopted mechanical switching technology in over half of the U.S. telephone network, replacing manual operation. Although automation eliminated most of these jobs, it did not affect future cohorts’ overall employment: the decline in operators was counteracted by reinstating demand in middle-skill clerical jobs and lower-skill service jobs. Using a new genealogy-based census-linking method, we show that incumbent telephone operators were most impacted, and a decade later more likely to be in lower-paying occupations or have left the labor force.
 
 
Automated telephone switching eventually displaced the women at the switchboards. But they kept their jobs for decades after the technology arrived
https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/RichmondFedOrg/publications/research/econ_focus/2019/q4/economic_history.pdf 

Hollywood Strikes

Hollywood’s Slo-Mo Self-Sabotage

https://www.newyorker.com/culture/cultural-comment/hollywood-self-sabotage-writer-strike

We Are All Background Actors
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/16/arts/television/hollywood-strike-background-actors.html
 
As Hollywood actors strike, here’s why A-listers are next in the firing line
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/jul/17/who-will-start-feeling-most-uncomfortable-during-the-hollywood-strikes-the-best-paid-actors
 
Annual Cost of SAG-AFTRA, DGA, WGA Contracts May Be $450M-$600M a Year, Moody’s Estimates
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/hollywood-strike-wall-street-analysts-assess-losers-costs-1235535871/
 
Have Hollywood studios blown it with the streaming glut? They can’t say they weren’t warned
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/jul/17/disney-marvel-pixar-have-the-studios-blown-it-streaming-glut-blockbuster

India versus China – Divergent Economic Prospects

India's consumer sentiment rebounds past pre-COVID levels
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/India-s-consumer-sentiment-rebounds-past-pre-COVID-levels
 
Real estate and job worries slow China's economy
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Real-estate-and-job-worries-slow-China-s-economy 

Market Optimism

Markets Are Propelled by What Hasn’t Happened
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-07-17/markets-are-propelled-by-what-hasn-t-happened
The economy hasn’t contracted, the labor market hasn’t collapsed, and bank disruptions haven’t upended the financial system. Traders are relieved. 

Risks Remain -

CRE in NYC: The city’s mega-office landlords are panicking, pivoting, and shedding what’s worthless.

https://www.curbed.com/article/nyc-office-real-estate-rechler-rxr-project-kodak.html

The Underlying Rationale for Foreign Collaboration

America Can’t Build a Green Economy Without China
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/17/opinion/america-china-clean-energy.html
But for all the overheated rhetoric, the truth is that free-flowing, in-person collaboration has been the fundamental mode of how technology moves across borders. With few exceptions, you either let yourself learn from your competitors, or you fail to compete with them at all.
Other countries understand this. It is the United States that has had to learn this lesson again and again. 

Europe's Economic Woes

Europeans Are Becoming Poorer. ‘Yes, We’re All Worse Off.’
https://www.wsj.com/articles/europeans-poorer-inflation-economy-255eb629
An aging population that values its free time set the stage for economic stagnation. Then came Covid-19 and Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The deindustrialization of Germany
https://www.politico.eu/article/rust-belt-on-the-rhine-the-deindustrialization-of-germany/
If Europe’s economic motor stalls, the Continent’s already polarized political landscape will shudder.
 
As Germany’s Business Model Wobbles, Firms Reassess Reliance on China
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/06/world/europe/germany-china-business-economy.html 

Australia's Approach to Immigration

Australia's immigration experience holds lessons for aging Asia
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Australia-s-immigration-experience-holds-lessons-for-aging-Asia 

Water and International Economics

How a Saudi firm tapped a gusher of water in drought-stricken Arizona
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/07/16/fondomonte-arizona-drought-saudi-farm-water/
Lax rules let a Saudi-owned company pump water from Arizona state land to grow alfalfa for the kingdom’s cattle. 

UK's Flailing National Health Service

A National Treasure, Tarnished: Can Britain Fix Its Health Service?
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/16/world/europe/uk-nhs-crisis.html 

Global Demographic Shifts

How a Vast Demographic Shift Will Reshape the World
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/07/16/world/world-demographics.html 

Were the Prophets of Doom Wrong?

The conventional wisdom about the global economy is that the rich have been getting richer and the poor have been getting poorer. What if that isn’t true?
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/07/economics-inequality-piketty-milanovic/674702/

The Great Convergence: Global Equality and Its Discontents by Branko Milanovic
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/great-convergence-equality-branko-milanovic

Related:
Two Theories of What I’m Getting Wrong
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/16/opinion/climate-change-biden-building-investment.html 

Chinese Aid

China as an International Lender of Last Resort
https://www.aiddata.org/publications/china-as-an-international-lender-of-last-resort 

Related:

China Props Up Belt-and-Road Borrowers Via Unusual Channel
https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-props-up-belt-and-road-borrowers-via-unusual-channel-11670727153
In Africa, China is building influence, brick by brick
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3202883/africa-china-building-influence-brick-brick 

America’s Elite Colleges - Rhetoric versus Reality

Elite Colleges Are About to Become the Villains
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/07/13/harvard-affirmative-action-diversity-00105967
The contradictions between Harvard’s rhetoric and the reality of the makeup of its student body have already caused great damage and compromised Harvard’s legal position before the Supreme Court. Justice Neil Gorsuch noted that Harvard could have achieved its current level of racial diversity by giving socioeconomically disadvantaged applicants half the boost it offers to so-called ALDC students, comprising athletes (the “A”), the children of alumni (also known as “legacies,” the “L”), the children of donors (“D”), and the children of faculty and staff (the “C”).
 
Related:
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2023/07/the-case-for-active-meritocracy-in.html 

A Potential Headache for US Telecoms

AT&T, Other Telecom Stocks Sink After WSJ Investigation on Toxic Lead Cables
https://www.wsj.com/articles/at-t-other-telecom-stocks-sink-in-wake-of-wsj-investigation-on-toxic-lead-cables-7f0f9293 

Europe and the World

Europe Keeps Acting Like It Can’t Defend Itself Against Russia
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/14/opinion/europe-defense-nato-russia.html
Related:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/07/14/europe-military-alliance-britain-poland-ukraine/
 
France fetes India's Modi at Bastille Day celebration
https://www.reuters.com/world/france-fete-indias-modi-bastille-day-celebration-2023-07-14/
 
India buys French fighter jets, submarines as Modi visits Macron
https://www.politico.eu/article/india-buys-french-rafale-fighter-jets-and-submarines-as-narendra-modi-visits-emmanuel-macron/
Related:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-13/france-nears-submarine-deal-with-india-as-us-allies-court-modi 

The Top 1% in America

America’s Top 1% Is Different in Each State: From a $370k to $950K Income
https://smartasset.com/data-studies/top-1-percent-income-2023 

Confusion Surrounding Climate Risk

Why people struggle to understand climate risk
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/07/13/why-people-struggle-to-understand-climate-risk 

Insurer’s Retreat in Florida Signals Crisis with No Easy Fix
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/14/business/farmers-homeowners-insurance-florida.html
Farmers is ending some policies in the Sunshine State as insurers struggle with the rising costs of covering climate change-related damage. No one can agree on whom to blame.

New Heat Wave Descends on Europe, as It Struggles to Adapt

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/14/world/europe/europe-heat-wave-italy.html

Rule of Law in China

Rule by law, with Chinese characteristics
https://www.economist.com/china/2023/07/13/rule-by-law-with-chinese-characteristics 

Bullard Heads to Purdue

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard Steps Down
https://www.wsj.com/articles/st-louis-fed-president-james-bullard-to-step-down-32937636
The longest serving current Fed president will become dean of the business school at Purdue University. 

The Sunbelt Feels Less Attractive

Maine Is the New Florida for Climate Migrants
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-07-14/climate-change-migration-why-maine-is-the-new-florida
The millions of Americans who migrated to the Sun Belt are now contemplating how to escape its blistering summers. 

Tech Wars

Meta and Google are blocking links to news in Canada. The US might be next.
https://www.vox.com/technology/2023/7/14/23794623/meta-google-canada-c-18-online-news-act-fight
 
America’s Silicon Blockade Against China
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/12/magazine/semiconductor-chips-us-china.html
 
Mukesh Ambani, India's richest man, bets on country's 'cheapest' phone
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-Spotlight/Mukesh-Ambani-India-s-richest-man-bets-on-country-s-cheapest-phone 

Back to Immaculate Disinflation?

Inflation drops to lowest levels since March 2021 as economy cools
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/07/12/june-cpi-inflation-report/
 
How Fast Can Inflation Cool? Not Fast Enough (Yet) for the Fed
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-fast-can-inflation-cool-not-fast-enough-yet-for-the-fed-faa756f3
 
Measure It Differently, and Inflation Is Behind Us
https://www.wsj.com/articles/measure-it-differently-and-inflation-is-behind-us-6a6a89c1
 
NEC Director Lael Brainard:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/07/12/remarks-as-prepared-for-delivery-by-nec-director-lael-brainard-at-the-economic-club-of-new-york/
The economy is defying predictions that inflation would not fall absent significant job destruction. Just today, we saw new and encouraging evidence that the U.S. economy is on the path to moderate inflation accompanied by a resilient jobs market. Annual CPI inflation is 3.0 percent—close to the 2.9 percent average level that prevailed in the nearly two decades leading up to the financial crisis. Annual inflation has now declined every month for 12 months in a row. And inflation in the United States is now the lowest among G-7 nations – for both headline and core inflation – even as our economic recovery from the pandemic has been the strongest.
 
Wall Street’s Recession Warning Is Flashing. Some Wonder if It’s Wrong.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/12/business/recession-yield-curve-rates.html
The yield curve has been suggesting since last year that the economy was headed for a slump. 

The Unit Labor Cost Debate:

Unit Labor Costs are Literally Constructed Using Prices
https://www.employamerica.org/blog/unit-labor-costs-do-not-drive-inflation-they-are-inflation/
Related:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/17/opinion/inflation-unit-labor-cost.html

Be Wary of Public Debt Burden

The U.S. debt tsunami meets with a reflexive, mindless bipartisan shrug
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/07/12/national-debt-domestic-threat/
 
It Turns Out That the Debt Matters After All
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/07/national-debt-fiscal-trajectory/674665/ 

Related:

America’s long-term fiscal sustainability challenge
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3965613-americas-long-term-fiscal-sustainability-challenge/

Xi's Biggest Mistake

Xi has picked a border fight with India that China cannot win
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-xi-has-picked-a-border-fight-with-india-that-china-cannot-win/
 
India Is Becoming a Power in Southeast Asia
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/07/07/india-southeast-asia-china-security-strategy-military-geopolitics-vietnam-philippines-indonesia/ 

India Is Pushing Back Against China in South Asia
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/08/16/india-china-south-asia-geopolitics-competition-strategy-modi-bangladesh-sri-lanka-bhutan-nepal-maldives-afghanistan/