Why Did Economic Forecasters Get Their Recession
Call Wrong?
https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/why-did-economic-forecasters-get-their-recession-call-wrong
A Humbling Economy for Economists
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/economic-forecasting-misses-inflation-recession-china-by-jim-o-neill-2023-07
https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/why-did-economic-forecasters-get-their-recession-call-wrong
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/economic-forecasting-misses-inflation-recession-china-by-jim-o-neill-2023-07
A US Soft Landing? Even the Fed Doesn’t Believe It
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-08-01/a-us-soft-landing-even-the-fed-doesn-t-believe-it
Unless 3.6% unemployment is the new normal, the central bank has more tightening to do.
Economist Behind Popular Recession Gauge Worries
She Created a ‘Monster’
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-01/us-recession-indicator-sahm-rule-might-not-hold-for-2023
Claudia Sahm thinks her eponymous rule may fail this time, meaning the US may dodge a downturn even if unemployment goes up modestly.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-08-01/a-us-soft-landing-even-the-fed-doesn-t-believe-it
Unless 3.6% unemployment is the new normal, the central bank has more tightening to do.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-01/us-recession-indicator-sahm-rule-might-not-hold-for-2023
Claudia Sahm thinks her eponymous rule may fail this time, meaning the US may dodge a downturn even if unemployment goes up modestly.
MY TAKE: Traditional recession indicators have misfired — are we in for a sneaky recession?