Graham Allison: “American politics is driving
towards a provocation that China could not avoid”
https://www.newstatesman.com/the-weekend-interview/2023/04/graham-allison-interview-american-politics-is-driving-towards-provocation-china
As the American political scientist Graham Allison first noted in 2012, throughout history when an emerging power has threatened to displace an existing great power this has more often than not led to war, even when neither side sought it. Allison led a research project into “Thucydides’s Trap” at Harvard University that investigated 16 such cases over the previous five centuries, starting with the rise of Spain challenging Portugal in the late-15th century Atlantic. Twelve of these cases led to war.
The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War? By GRAHAM ALLISON
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/09/united-states-china-war-thucydides-trap/406756/
“The defining question about global order for this generation is whether China and the United States can escape Thucydides’s Trap. The Greek historian’s metaphor reminds us of the attendant dangers when a rising power rivals a ruling power—as Athens challenged Sparta in ancient Greece, or as Germany did Britain a century ago. Most such contests have ended badly, often for both nations, a team of mine at the Harvard Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs has concluded after analyzing the historical record. In 12 of 16 cases over the past 500 years, the result was war. When the parties avoided war, it required huge, painful adjustments in attitudes and actions on the part not just of the challenger but also the challenged.”
https://www.newstatesman.com/the-weekend-interview/2023/04/graham-allison-interview-american-politics-is-driving-towards-provocation-china
As the American political scientist Graham Allison first noted in 2012, throughout history when an emerging power has threatened to displace an existing great power this has more often than not led to war, even when neither side sought it. Allison led a research project into “Thucydides’s Trap” at Harvard University that investigated 16 such cases over the previous five centuries, starting with the rise of Spain challenging Portugal in the late-15th century Atlantic. Twelve of these cases led to war.
The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War? By GRAHAM ALLISON
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/09/united-states-china-war-thucydides-trap/406756/
“The defining question about global order for this generation is whether China and the United States can escape Thucydides’s Trap. The Greek historian’s metaphor reminds us of the attendant dangers when a rising power rivals a ruling power—as Athens challenged Sparta in ancient Greece, or as Germany did Britain a century ago. Most such contests have ended badly, often for both nations, a team of mine at the Harvard Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs has concluded after analyzing the historical record. In 12 of 16 cases over the past 500 years, the result was war. When the parties avoided war, it required huge, painful adjustments in attitudes and actions on the part not just of the challenger but also the challenged.”