https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-progressive-defends-liberal-education-11567121394
--
George Will’s interesting essay: Is the individual obsolete?
Friday, August 30, 2019
Readings for Conservative Intellectuals
https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-progressive-defends-liberal-education-11567121394
--
Relative Well-Being: Canadians versus Americans
Most Canadians Are Now Better Off Than Most
Americans
Asset Markets - Interesting Items
Negative Rates – Cool Graphics
Historic Asset Boom Passes by Half of Families
https://www.wsj.com/articles/historic-asset-boom-passes-by-half-of-families-11567157400
Challenging Environment for Democracies
The corrupting of democracy
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/08/29/the-corrupting-of-democracyAre Western democracies becoming ungovernable?
https://www.economist.com/international/2019/08/01/are-western-democracies-becoming-ungovernable
Benefits of a Global Digital Currency
The benefits of a global digital currency
https://voxeu.org/article/benefits-global-digital-currency
Related:
https://voxeu.org/article/benefits-global-digital-currency
Related:
US Economy - Evaluating Recession Risk
Parts of America may already be facing
recession
https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/08/29/parts-of-america-may-already-be-facing-recession
The Business Cycle Dating Committee issues
the definitive rulings on whether a recession has begun or ended. We should all
know what is and how it works.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/why-this-little-known-economic-committee-could--but-probably-wont--sway-the-election/2019/08/30/de37c2f0-ca94-11e9-a1fe-ca46e8d573c0_story.html
This is the factor that’s most likely to determine whether there’s
a U.S. recession
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/29/this-is-factor-thats-likely-determine-whether-theres-us-recession/
Could a US Recession End the Trade War?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/29/this-is-factor-thats-likely-determine-whether-theres-us-recession/
Could a US Recession End the Trade War?
Thursday, August 29, 2019
Reworking the Global Supply Chain - Searching for Alternatives to China
Inside the Most Ambitious Push Yet to Make
iPhones Outside China
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-08-29/apple-iphone-amazon-echo-production-moving-from-china-to-india
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-08-29/apple-iphone-amazon-echo-production-moving-from-china-to-india
Manufacturers Want to Quit China for
Vietnam. They’re Finding It Impossible.
US Labor Force - Structural Changes
Why Aren’t More Women Working? They’re
Caring for Parents
Baby Boomers upend the workforce one last time
www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2019/03/01/baby-boomers-parting-gift-workforce-one-last-mess/
www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2019/03/01/baby-boomers-parting-gift-workforce-one-last-mess/
Binder, Ariel J., and John Bound. 2019. "The Declining Labor
Market Prospects of Less-Educated Men."Journal of
Economic Perspectives, 33 (2): 163-90.
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/jep.33.2.163
Abstract
Over the last half century, US wage growth stagnated, wage inequality rose, and the labor-force participation rate of prime-age men steadily declined. In this article, we examine these worrying labor market trends, focusing on outcomes for males without a college education. Though wages and participation have fallen in tandem for this population, we argue that the canonical neoclassical framework, which postulates a labor demand curve shifting inward across a stable labor supply curve, does not reasonably explain the data. Alternatives we discuss include adjustment frictions associated with labor demand shocks and effects of the changing marriage market—that is, the fact that fewer less-educated men are forming their own stable families—on male labor supply incentives. In the synthesis that emerges, the phenomenon of declining prime-age male labor-force participation is not coherently explained by a series of causal factors acting separately. A more reasonable interpretation, we argue, involves complex feedbacks between labor demand, family structure, and other factors that have disproportionately affected less-educated men.
Abstract
Over the last half century, US wage growth stagnated, wage inequality rose, and the labor-force participation rate of prime-age men steadily declined. In this article, we examine these worrying labor market trends, focusing on outcomes for males without a college education. Though wages and participation have fallen in tandem for this population, we argue that the canonical neoclassical framework, which postulates a labor demand curve shifting inward across a stable labor supply curve, does not reasonably explain the data. Alternatives we discuss include adjustment frictions associated with labor demand shocks and effects of the changing marriage market—that is, the fact that fewer less-educated men are forming their own stable families—on male labor supply incentives. In the synthesis that emerges, the phenomenon of declining prime-age male labor-force participation is not coherently explained by a series of causal factors acting separately. A more reasonable interpretation, we argue, involves complex feedbacks between labor demand, family structure, and other factors that have disproportionately affected less-educated men.
Wednesday, August 28, 2019
Cabbage Inflation and the Russian Economy
What cabbage inflation tells us about the
Russian economy
https://www.ft.com/video/69cd8024-475b-4d6e-8f2c-1df1ac8b3e67Brexit and British Politics
Boris Johnson Is Suspending Parliament. What
Next for Brexit?
Is Britain Becoming a Failed State?
Brexit could cause a crisis that drags in even the
queen
Tuesday, August 27, 2019
Monetary Economists on Recent Developments
Talking Rates in the Maine Woods With
Economists Over Good Wine
EM Assets – Time to Buy?
GMO Says Emerging Markets Stocks Will
Trounce U.S. Equities
Indian Stocks Back on Some Foreign Radars
After Policy Moves
Lower US yields make EM spreads attractive
Trump versus the Fed
Former President of NYFED, Bill Dudley, notes:
The Fed Shouldn’t
Enable Donald Trump
“U.S. President
Donald Trump’s trade war with China keeps undermining the confidence of
businesses and consumers, worsening the economic outlook. This manufactured
disaster-in-the-making presents the Federal Reserve with a dilemma: Should it
mitigate the damage by providing offsetting stimulus, or refuse to play along?
If the ultimate
goal is a healthy economy, the Fed should seriously consider the latter
approach.”
Bloomberg’s John Authers notes:
“The presidential
Twitter feed has long provided an insight into Trump’s personality, and most
have disliked what they have seen. But for the most part, it has been possible
until recently to dismiss the missives. Trump’s tweets reveal the president to
be self-obsessed and vain, the argument went, but so what? Other politicians
have similar flaws; the only difference is that they try to hide them.
It’s hard to
dismiss the tweets of the last few days this way. The average professional
investor is not equipped to be a psychiatrist, which makes the problem harder.
But to the layman, Trump appears to have moved from pettiness and vanity to
something more serious. Retweeting with approving comments someone who likened
him to the “King of Israel” and subsequently joking about being the “chosen
one” seems unhinged to many in markets. You can throw in his “ordering” U.S.
companies to boycott China, and speculating about whether Federal Reserve
Chairman Jerome Powell is the greatest “enemy” of the U.S.”
Stephen S.
Roach, a faculty member at Yale University and former Chairman of Morgan
Stanley Asia, notes:
“Despite years of
denial, there can no longer be any doubt that the US is pursuing a bipartisan
containment strategy vis-Ã -vis China. Whether justified or not, the real
problem with this strategy is less the merits of the allegations leveled by US
politicians than the incoherence of the Trump administration’s policies to
address them.
MMT – Heterodox Economic Theory Gains Attention
The Economist Who Believes the Government
Should Just Print More Money
Modern Monetary Theory, explained
Is modern monetary theory nutty or
essential?
Modern Monetary Theory: Fiasco in Latin
America, Option in U.S.?
Hedge Fund Titan Ray Dalio on MMT
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/its-time-look-more-carefully-monetary-policy-3-mp3-modern-ray-dalio/
Everything You Want to Know About Modern
Monetary Theory
Monday, August 26, 2019
Have Things Really Changed All That Much?
“Have you ever, in
listening to a debate among adult and presumably responsible people, been
fretted by the extraordinary inability of the average debater to speak to the
question, or to meet and refute the arguments of speakers on the other side? Or
have you ever pondered upon the extremely high incidence of irrelevant matter
which crops up at committee meetings, and upon the very great rarity of persons
capable of acting as chairmen of committees? And when you think of this, and
think that most of our public affairs are settled by debates and committees,
have you ever felt a certain sinking of the heart?”
-
Dorothy Sayers, "The Lost Tools of
Learning" [1948]
Economics and Quality of Life
Columbia University Law Professor Tim Wu notes:
“Since the 1980s, American economic policy has insisted on the central importance of two things: cheaper prices for consumers and maximum returns for corporate shareholders. There is some logic to this: We all buy things, after all, and most of us own at least some stock.
But these priorities also generate an internal conflict, for they neglect, repress and even enslave our other selves: our identities as employees, producers, family members, citizens.”
Related:
Are Large Budget Deficits no Longer a Cause for Concern?
The great deficit gamble by Robert J. Samuelson
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/were-making-a-high-stakes-gamble-on-the-deficit/2019/08/25/82b0494e-c5c5-11e9-b5e4-54aa56d5b7ce_story.html
In the U.S., interest payments on government
debt are rising again after a long decline. That’s weird.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-28/u-s-interest-payments-on-government-debt-are-rising
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-28/u-s-interest-payments-on-government-debt-are-rising
Sunday, August 25, 2019
Why Economics Matters
Reviews of The Economists' Hour
https://www.economist.com/books-and-arts/2019/08/29/when-economists-ruled-the-world
https://www.economist.com/books-and-arts/2019/08/29/when-economists-ruled-the-world
Marion Foucade ("Economics: The View from
Below") notes:
“In the course of the twentieth century, economists
have been able to establish a remarkable position for themselves, as experts in
local and national governmental organizations, in independent agencies and
central banks, in international institutions, in business and finance, and in
the media. They supplanted lawyers in government and historians in the public
sphere. As such, they have been involved with some of the most consequential
decisions that societies make—decisions having to do, for instance, with the
level of unemployment that might be left unattended, because it should be
considered “natural”; with whether or not to authorize the purchase and sale of
untested financial products or with how to organize the delivery of clean
water, vaccines or electricity.
This involvement has come at a cost. As Robert
Chernomas and Ian Hudson put it, “economics has the awkward distinction of
being both the most influential and the most reviled social science” (2016, 3).
We might add: economics may be the most reviled social science precisely
because it is the most influential. First, for better or for worse, economics
has become the science of making social choices, and as such it always cuts
right through the heart of politics and morality.”
Why politicians and economists often don’t get
along
Related:
Friday, August 23, 2019
In Search of a New Global Monetary Order
We are finally experiencing the inevitable chaos arising
from the election of incompetent and buffoonish populists to power in recent
years. The world is clearly unprepared to deal with the resultant economic
consequences.
It is time to think about the post-2020 world order.
An important first step in that direction was provided by the Canadian-born Governor
of the Bank of England, Mark Carney:
The Growing Challenges for Monetary Policy in the
current International Monetary and Financial System
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2019/the-growing-challenges-for-monetary-policy-speech-by-mark-carney.pdf
Related:
Will a Self-Inflicted Supply Shock and/or Bad Leadership Cause the Next Recession?
Nouriel Roubini notes:
“Unlike the 2008 global financial crisis, which was mostly a large negative aggregate demand shock, the next recession is likely to be caused by permanent negative supply shocks from the Sino-American trade and technology war.”
U.S., China dig in over trade; Trump calls
on firms to cut ties with Beijing
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/23/china-hits-us-with-tariffs-billion-worth-goods-reinstates-auto-levies-state-media-report/
When will Trump supporters finally say, ‘Okay, this is not normal’?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/23/china-hits-us-with-tariffs-billion-worth-goods-reinstates-auto-levies-state-media-report/
When will Trump supporters finally say, ‘Okay, this is not normal’?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/08/23/when-will-trump-supporters-finally-say-okay-this-is-not-normal/
How to respond to a manic president driving the
economy into the ditch
Once a beacon of stability, the U.S. has become a source of tumult.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-22/ahead-of-jackson-hole-emerging-markets-lose-faith-in-the-fed
The Trump economy: A chaotic, contradictory response to a slowdown
The Trump economy: A chaotic, contradictory response to a slowdown
Trump’s recession strategy will be trying to prove his wrong ideas are right
Can Monetary Policy Save the Day?
‘Animal Spirits’ and Recessions
Challenges for Monetary Policy – Remarks
by Jerome H. Powell Chair Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Whither Central Banking?
The Non-Weirdness of Negative Interest Rates
Negative Rates Are Coming for Your Savings
Thursday, August 22, 2019
Electric Vehicles and Transportation in India
Inside India’s Messy Electric Vehicle Revolution
Bike sharing apps dominate the Indian market
Data Revisions and Recent US Economic Performance
Job Gains Were Weaker Than Reported, by Half a
Million
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/21/business/economy/jobs-growth-revision.html
New GDP data confirms Trump’s tax cuts aren’t working
https://www.vox.com/2019/7/26/8931569/gdp-q2-trump-tax-failed
Trump's greatest success: the drying up of U.S. investment.
Trump's greatest success: the drying up of U.S. investment.
Long-Term Growth Performance of Western Economies
Per-capita GDP growth in some rich countries has
been awfully slow lately.
Real World Entrepreneurs
How Payal Kadakia Danced Her Way to a $600 Million
Start-Up
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/16/business/payal-kadakia-classpass-corner-office.html
Education Billionaire - Byju Raveendran, a former school teacher, is India’s newest billionaire
Education Billionaire - Byju Raveendran, a former school teacher, is India’s newest billionaire
Grade Inflation and the Declining Value of a British University Degree
The great university con: how the British degree
lost its value
“According to Professor Fenton of Goldsmiths,
“Students come to us now with an entirely different mindset. They want to know
what you want to hear in order to get a First.” Students, she says, turn up
expecting to find “bite-sized chunks of knowledge that you put in certain
boxes. It’s that learnt process of gaming an A* [at A-level]. That’s the
complete opposite to what a university education is.” Or rather, was. “That’s
what changed,” she says. “Students have been shackled in the way they learn.” …
“Ideas that students readily understood ten to 15
years ago, they struggle to understand today,” Peter Dorey, professor of
British politics at the University of Cardiff, told the Commons inquiry in
2009. “Many of them are semi-literate.” Dorey described seminars in which
students sat listlessly, waiting to be told how to “pass our exams”. “They will
brazenly admit to having read nothing,” he told the hearing.”
Related: Impact of the 1963 Robbins committee report
https://www.timeshighereducation.com/features/robbins-50-years-later/2008287.article
The winners and losers of England’s great university free-for-all
https://www.timeshighereducation.com/features/robbins-50-years-later/2008287.article
The winners and losers of England’s great university free-for-all
https://www.economist.com/britain/2019/08/22/the-winners-and-losers-of-englands-great-university-free-for-all
Additional Readings:
Additional Readings:
The Grade Inflation Problem
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2015/09/the-grade-inflation-epidemic-at.htmlWhat Does College Rankings Reflect?
College rankings might as well be student rankings
“Schools may want to take as much credit as they can
for the education and opportunities they give students. But if a school enrolls
the top students to begin with, it’s hardly surprising that such a school would
end up on top in terms of other outcomes. A college’s success may be less about
the quality of its instruction and more about the talent it can recruit.”
Wednesday, August 21, 2019
Shareholders and Corporations
The Economist Who Put Stock Buybacks in
Washington’s Crosshairs
https://www.newyorker.com/business/currency/the-economist-who-put-stock-buybacks-in-washingtons-crosshairs
Share Buybacks
CEO group says maximizing shareholder profits can
no longer be primary goal
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/19/lobbying-group-powerful-ceos-is-rethinking-how-it-defines-corporations-purpose/
Milton Friedman Was Wrong
Milton Friedman Was Wrong
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/08/milton-friedman-shareholder-wrong/596545/
Big business is beginning to accept broader social responsibilities
Big business is beginning to accept broader social responsibilities
Related:
International Student Enrollment Trends
The International Student Slump Isn’t Just
About Trump
[Lots of Interesting Charts]
Challenges facing UK Universities
[Lots of Interesting Charts]
Chinese students and US universities become pawns in the trade war
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Cover-Story/Chinese-students-and-US-universities-become-pawns-in-the-trade-war
Rising Importance of STEM-Designated MBA programs
https://poetsandquants.com/2019/06/19/stem-mba-programs-at-u-s-b-schools
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Cover-Story/Chinese-students-and-US-universities-become-pawns-in-the-trade-war
Rising Importance of STEM-Designated MBA programs
https://poetsandquants.com/2019/06/19/stem-mba-programs-at-u-s-b-schools
Challenges facing UK Universities
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/aug/12/is-a-british-university-degree-really-worth-it-any-more
Germany – An Increasingly Attractive Destination for Foreign Students
Germany – An Increasingly Attractive Destination for Foreign Students
US Institutions Under Threat
Trump’s War on Evidence
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-census-usda-relocation-by-anne-krueger-2019-08
“The return of a vanquished disease reflects historical amnesia, declining faith in institutions, and a troubling lack of concern for the public good.”
Does the German Economy Need a Fiscal Stimulus Boost?
The World Has a Germany Problem
Does Germany need a stimulus package to cope
with recession?
Inefficient Military Spending
Inside America’s Dysfunctional
Trillion-Dollar Fighter-Jet Program
Related:
Related:
Monday, August 19, 2019
International Capital Flows - Asia
How Asia Can Protect Its Crazy Riches
China’s capital outflow problem still a ‘grey rhino’ despite signs of stabilization
Economic Causes of the Hong Kong Protests
Why Hong Kong’s angry and disillusioned youth are making their voices heard
Friday, August 16, 2019
US Business Cycle Turning Points
A recession will come. How bad will it be?
UPDATE:
This is the factor that’s most likely to determine whether there’s a U.S. recession
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/29/this-is-factor-thats-likely-determine-whether-theres-us-recession/
What is an ‘inverted yield curve’ and why does it
matter?
What the Yield Curve Says About When the Next
Recession Could Happen
UPDATE:
This is the factor that’s most likely to determine whether there’s a U.S. recession
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/29/this-is-factor-thats-likely-determine-whether-theres-us-recession/
Thursday, August 15, 2019
Economic Reforms in India
Modi seeks reforms to India's stuttering
economy
Monitoring India’s macro-fiscal performance
https://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/ey-economy-watch-july-2019/$File/ey-economy-watch-july-2019.pdf
Modi Has United India Like No Prime Minister in Decades
http://time.com/5595467/narendra-modi-india-unite-prime-minister/
Modinomics – Realistic Appraisal
Modi Has United India Like No Prime Minister in Decades
http://time.com/5595467/narendra-modi-india-unite-prime-minister/
Modinomics – Realistic Appraisal
Modi's New Challenge Is Embracing Urbanization
India’s a Land of Cities, Not Villages
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-01-12/india-is-already-a-land-of-cities-not-villages
India Needs Its Own Canary Wharf
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-04-07/india-s-next-government-can-create-a-canary-wharf-for-mumbai
India's Economy Needs Tougher Reform.
A Reform Agenda for the Next Indian Government by Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyar
Global Economic Slowdown
Markets are braced for a global downturn
Germany’s economy is now shrinking
Nine countries are in or nearing a
recession, with fears the U.S. could follow
Political Shifts and US Grad School Enrollment
Recent Trends in US Grad School Enrollment
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-15/how-trump-is-saving-law-schools-and-hurting-business-schoolsWednesday, August 14, 2019
Debt Matters
U.S. National Debt Has Grown by $4 Trillion Since
2017
The Truth About Student Debt: 7 Facts No One Is
Talking About
Trade War Uncertainty and a Potential US Recession
U.S. Businesses Are Stuck in Trade War Uncertainty
WSJ Op-Ed: A Navarro Recession?
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-14/u-s-businesses-are-stuck-in-trade-war-uncertainty
As Global Order Crumbles, Risks of Recession Grow
https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-global-order-crumbles-risks-of-recession-grow-11565784000
Is the economy turning against Trump
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/is-the-economy-turning-against-trump/2019/08/11/a3f9f022-bacc-11e9-b3b4-2bb69e8c4e39_story.html
Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz notes:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/is-the-economy-turning-against-trump/2019/08/11/a3f9f022-bacc-11e9-b3b4-2bb69e8c4e39_story.html
Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz notes:
“America should be in a boom, with three enormous fiscal-stimulus measures in the past three years. The 2017 tax cut, which mainly benefited billionaires and corporations, added some $1.5-2 trillion to the ten-year deficit. An almost $300 billion increase in expenditures over two years averted a government shutdown in 2018. And at the end of July, a new agreement to avoid another shutdown added another $320 billion of spending. If it takes trillion-dollar annual deficits to keep the US economy going in good times, what will it take when things are not so rosy”
Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman: China Tries to Teach Trump Economics
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