Zoom Stock Wins in Current Crisis, But Wall Street
Finds Its Valuation Hard to Defend
From
NYU’s valuation guru Aswath Damodaran:
Wednesday, April 1, 2020
Scientific Debate Surrounding the Transmission of Covid-19
How the coronavirus travels through the air has
become one of the most divisive debates in this pandemic.
“The question, then, isn’t whether the coronavirus is
“airborne” in the tediously academic way the word has been defined. As the
journalist Roxanne Khamsi puts it, the virus is “definitely borne by air.” The
better questions are: How far does the virus move? And Is it stable and
concentrated enough at the end of its journey to harm someone’s health?”
Fading Hopes for a V-Shaped Economic Recovery
Why the Global Recession Could Last a Long Time
Economists Are Losing Hope in a ‘V-Shaped’
Post-Virus Recovery
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-31/a-quick-rebound-from-virus-economists-have-reason-to-doubt-it
V, L or ‘Nike Swoosh’? Economists Debate Shape of
Global Recovery
Expected/Unexpected Consequences of the Coronavirus Shock
China’s Divorce Spike Is a Warning to Rest of
Locked-Down World
“Although China publishes nationwide statistics on
divorce only annually, media reports from various cities show uncouplings
surged in March as husbands and wives began emerging from weeks of
government-mandated lockdowns intended to stop the spread of the novel
coronavirus. Incidents of domestic violence also multiplied. The trend may be
an ominous warning for couples in the U.S. and elsewhere who are in the early
stages of isolating at home: If absence makes the heart grow fonder, the
opposite might be true of too much time spent together in close quarters.”
Critics of Stock Buybacks Will Outlast Coronavirus
The coronavirus may sink the cruise-ship business
Covid-19 Changed How the World Does Science,
Together
Pandemics - History Lessons
Pandemics and the Shape of Human History
Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health
Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu
Abstract
What are the economic consequences of an influenza
pandemic? And given the pandemic, what are the economic costs and benefits of
non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI)? Using geographic variation in mortality
during the 1918 Flu Pandemic in the U.S., we find that more exposed areas
experience a sharp and persistent decline in economic activity. The estimates
imply that the pandemic reduced manufacturing output by 18%. The downturn is
driven by both supply and demand-side channels. Further, building on findings
from the epidemiology literature establishing that NPIs decrease influenza
mortality, we use variation in the timing and intensity of NPIs across U.S.
cities to study their economic effects. We find that cities that intervened
earlier and more aggressively do not perform worse and, if anything, grow
faster after the pandemic is over. Our findings thus indicate that NPIs not
only lower mortality; they also mitigate the adverse economic consequences of a
pandemic.
THE CORONAVIRUS AND THE GREAT INFLUENZA PANDEMIC:
LESSONS FROM THE “SPANISH FLU” FOR THE CORONAVIRUS’S POTENTIAL EFFECTS ON
MORTALITY AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Cutting GDP to Counter the Coronavirus Pandemic by Robert
Barro
https://www.nber.org/papers/w26866.pdf
The Macroeconomics of Epidemics by Martin S. Eichenbaum, Sergio Rebelo, Mathias Trabandt
https://www.nber.org/papers/w26882.pdf
We extend the canonical epidemiology model to study the interaction between economic decisions and epidemics. Our model implies that people’s decision to cut back on consumption and work reduces the severity of the epidemic, as measured by total deaths. These decisions exacerbate the size of the recession caused by the epidemic. The competitive equilibrium is not socially optimal because infected people do not fully internalize the effect of their economic decisions on the spread of the virus. In our benchmark scenario, the optimal containment policy increases the severity of the recession but saves roughly 0.6 million lives in the U.S.
American Experience Documentary
Related:
Social Distancing During the Black Death
The Macroeconomics of Epidemics by Martin S. Eichenbaum, Sergio Rebelo, Mathias Trabandt
https://www.nber.org/papers/w26882.pdf
We extend the canonical epidemiology model to study the interaction between economic decisions and epidemics. Our model implies that people’s decision to cut back on consumption and work reduces the severity of the epidemic, as measured by total deaths. These decisions exacerbate the size of the recession caused by the epidemic. The competitive equilibrium is not socially optimal because infected people do not fully internalize the effect of their economic decisions on the spread of the virus. In our benchmark scenario, the optimal containment policy increases the severity of the recession but saves roughly 0.6 million lives in the U.S.
American Experience Documentary
Let's Not Forget Climate Change and Weather Disasters
Abnormally warm Gulf of Mexico could intensify
upcoming tornado and hurricane seasons
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