The Perils of Economic Forecasting

A fantastic piece from Bloomberg:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-04/it-s-been-a-rough-year-for-analysts-forecasting-central-bank-decisions

Market Risk Assessment

Hedge Funds and Bad Bets on Commodities

From the WSJ:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-a-blackrock-bet-on-african-gold-lost-its-luster-1446602000

“BlackRock fund manager Evy Hambro’s wager on Congo gold shows how conservative investors, once averse to such plays, took more risk during the commodities boom—at their peril.”

‘Brexit’ and Political Risk Assessment

Should UK face a ratings downgrade if some politicians persist with push to get Britain out of the EU?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11974221/One-in-three-chance-Britain-will-leave-the-EU-warns-Morgan-Stanley.html

A Stunning Development – American Newspaper Publishes a Positive Story on China’s Economy

A relatively positive story on the Chinese economy – China’s Middle Class Buoys Some Consumer Businesses – WSJ

Given the relentlessly negative coverage of China in the American media, it is indeed a rare sighting.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/as-chinas-economy-slows-consumers-pick-up-some-of-the-slack-1446581526

Related:

Chinese find creative ways to skirt capital controls -

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2015-11-02/china-s-money-exodus

US Corporate Taxes – Desperately in Need of Reform

How Tech Majors Reduce Their Tax Bills –

http://www.wired.com/2015/04/big-tech-companies-make-tax-bills-vanish/

http://www.wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2014/05/start/us-tax-patent-shuffle

Microsoft and International Tax Arbitrage

http://www.smh.com.au/business/microsoft-defends-using-hubs-in-ireland-singapore-and-puerto-rico-to-cut-tax-rate-20150211-13boea.html

http://blogs.reuters.com/muniland/2014/04/01/the-puerto-rico-corporate-tax-question/

Transfer Pricing and Corporate Taxes

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/03/business/how-apple-and-other-corporations-move-profit-to-avoid-taxes.html

Related:

http://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2015/10/the-controversial-carried-interest-tax.html

Can Mortality Rates Actually Rise in an Advanced Economy?

Interesting and troubling new research finding –

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/a-group-of-middle-aged-american-whites-is-dying-at-a-startling-rate/2015/11/02/47a63098-8172-11e5-8ba6-cec48b74b2a7_story.html

“A large segment of white middle-aged Americans has suffered a startling rise in its death rate since 1999, according to a review of statistics published Monday that shows a sharp reversal in decades of progress toward longer lives. The mortality rate for white men and women ages 45-54 with less than a college education increased markedly between 1999 and 2013, most likely because of problems with legal and illegal drugs, alcohol and suicide, the researchers concluded. Before then, death rates for that group dropped steadily, and at a faster pace.”

Related:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/03/health/death-rates-rising-for-middle-aged-white-americans-study-finds.html
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/11/03/the-economic-roots-of-the-climbing-death-rate-for-middle-aged-whites/

Rising morbidity and mortality in midlife among white non-Hispanic Americans in the 21st century by Case and Deaton (2015)
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2015/10/29/1518393112.full.pdf

Which Countries Receive the Most Foreign Aid from the US?

A brilliant graphic (that illustrates the sad reality that it is neither the poorest nor the neediest that receive US foreign aid):

http://chrisblattman.com/files/2015/10/USaidmoneyHowMuch.jpg

America's counter-intuitive foreign policy
http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/tP3lznP5LnrlXCa5HGMBlM/Americas-broken-Pakistan-policy.html

Economics of Surge Pricing

Uber’s pricing algorithm – apparently, not all that impressive

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/10/how-uber-surge-pricing-works/413335/