China's Problem - Too Much Competition

China’s Problem with Competition: There’s Too Much of It
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/22/business/china-involution-competition-deflation.html
The Chinese government is taking steps to rein in what it calls “involution,” or excessive competition that is hurting local companies and fueling the country’s deflationary spiral. 

Asset Price Puzzles

Why Are Stocks Up? Nobody Knows
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/why-are-stocks-up-nobody-knows-e40e5f42
A torrent of bad news hasn’t been enough to sink the market.
 
A Mystery in the High-Yield Muni Market: What Are the Riskiest Bonds Worth?
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/a-mystery-in-the-high-yield-muni-market-what-are-the-riskiest-bonds-worth-22b00e47 

Can AI Run the Economy?

AI Can’t Replace Free Markets
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/algorithms-cant-replace-free-markets-artificial-intelligence-dd3b428f
Algorithms process data from the past while economic decisions are dynamic and forward-looking. 

Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War

The Economic Implications of Tariff Increases
https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/el2025-17.pdf
Trade policy in the United States has been in flux in recent months. A theoretical analysis of recent increases in U.S. tariffs, including potential retaliatory tariffs by other countries, suggests a resulting drop in overall U.S. employment, although manufacturing employment increases. Results also indicate a decline in overall real income for the United States of around 0.4%, although this number masks important variation across U.S. states.
 
Transshipment is the new dirty word of trade
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/transshipment-is-new-dirty-word-trade-2025-07-21 

The Global Economy Is Powering Through a Historic Increase in Tariffs

https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/global-economy-tariffs-trade-growth-b2c1824a

Trade, production, growth and other global economic vitals are proving resilient almost four months after President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.

China Reduces Oil Dependence

How China Curbed Its Oil Addiction—and Blunted a U.S. Pressure Point
https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-oil-demand-lower-b5ae15ed
The Chinese government is boosting domestic production and the EV industry in the name of national security. There are 14 million chargers nationwide. 

Central Banking in the Age of Fiscal Populism

‘Fiscal populism’ is coming for central banks
https://www.ft.com/content/237226e8-78e5-4326-a701-cc8b1dede1de
When monetary policy is set to meet government budgetary needs, these institutions become piggy banks.

 
Trump's Fed attacks puncture veneer of central bank independence
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/trumps-fed-attacks-puncture-veneer-central-bank-independence-2025-07-21 

Related:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/07/20/trump-every-right-berate-technocrats/

My take:

Investors beware: Fiscal dominance and financial repression ahead by VIVEKANAND JAYAKUMAR, The Hill - 07/13/25
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5397963-fed-keeping-rates-low-trump-administration/

AI at Indian GCCs

Multinationals turn to India’s back offices for AI engineers
https://www.ft.com/content/a46ee948-07c0-4083-9610-1d85d7e15cc7
McDonald’s, Bupa and others set up ‘global capability centres’ to perform core big-data tasks. 

Traditional Banks and Stablecoins

Why Banks Are on High Alert About Stablecoins
https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/why-banks-are-on-high-alert-about-stablecoins-2f308aa0
Banks fear the tokens could siphon deposits they use to fund loans to companies and consumers. 

The rise and risks of stablecoins
https://www.ft.com/content/b3063d9a-d161-4dda-96bb-ea0dfaa2488d
US law bringing the asset into the mainstream has dangers for financial stability.

The Impact of Global Demographic Shifts

There Is No Demographic Crisis. Only a Crisis of Care
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2025-jennifer-sciubba-weekend-interview/
The world’s population is expected to start shrinking this century. Political demographer Jennifer Sciubba says that’s no reason to panic. 

The Debate over Falling Fertility
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2025/06/the-debate-over-falling-fertility-david-bloom
A decline in global population later this century may threaten human progress, or it may lead to better lives.
 
Sustaining Growth in an Aging World
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2025/06/sustaining-growth-in-an-aging-world-bertrand-gruss
Older populations need not lead to slumping economic growth and mounting fiscal pressures.
 
The Longevity Dividend
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2025/06/the-longevity-dividend-andrew-scott
Aging populations should be embraced, not feared.

The mysterious statisticians shaping how we think about fertility 
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/396708/world-us-population-projections-estimates-2050-2100
Experts were wrong about overpopulation before. Could they be wrong about underpopulation now?

My take:
Are we worried about the wrong demographic problem? By Vivekanand Jayakumar
https://thehill.com/opinion/4954154-falling-birth-rates-global-economy/ 

Opportunity Cost

The Economics of DIY
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-economics-of-diy-and-opportunity-cost-for-americans-f6fbf17d
Should you hire someone to mow your lawn or clean your house? It’s a question of opportunity cost. 

Trump versus Powell

Trump’s Withering Criticism of Powell Puts Fed Decisions Under Microscope
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/18/business/trump-fed-interest-rates-powell.html
The central bank is poised to hold interest rates steady this month, but there could be a path to cut as early as September.

The ‘Fed Mahal’ Is an Act of Central-Bank Self-Sabotage
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-fed-mahal-is-an-act-of-central-bank-self-sabotage-powell-trump-143e945f
Any bureaucracy will build itself a palace if given the chance. This one is a threat to its independence.

The Global Risks That Come with the Loss of an Independent Fed
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/federal-reserve-independence-financial-markets-df8fdebc
It isn’t just the U.S. Other countries have also come to expect an independent U.S. central bank.

Trump Wants Lower Rates. Firing Powell Could Push Them Higher.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/17/business/trump-powell-federal-reserve-higher-rates.html
Investors, not the Fed, control the interest rates that matter most to businesses and consumers. They might demand higher returns if the central bank’s independence comes into question.

Why Political Pressure on Central Banks Is So Toxic for Investors
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/trump-central-bank-political-pressure-powell-investors-9798c6a8
Politicians often want lower rates; central banks seek stable prices. 

President Trump Reshapes Global Trade

Forget TACO. Trump Is Winning His Trade War.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/forget-taco-trump-is-winning-his-trade-war-8af6f777
The president wants tariffs, the higher the better. Whether that is achieved unilaterally or via deals is secondary. 

It’s No Bluff: The Tariff Rate Is Soaring Under Trump
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/14/us/politics/trump-tariffs.html
The president has earned a reputation for bluffing on tariffs. But he has steadily and dramatically raised U.S. tariffs, transforming global trade.

 

The Economy Has Been Resilient. The New Round of Tariffs May Hit Harder.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/14/us/politics/tariff-threats-us-economy.html
The economy’s resilience so far to President Trump’s global trade war risks emboldening him and unleashing the sort of economic devastation that economists have long feared.

Trump Bets Constantly Shifting Tariff Strategy Can Remake Global Trade
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-tariffs-trade-policy-negotiations-0e4dbbe3
President wants to keep other countries guessing, but his strategy faces risks.
 
Households will pay an average of $2,400 more for goods this year, thanks to Trump’s policies.
https://www.theatlantic.com/economy/archive/2025/07/trump-tariffs-trade-war-ongoing/683476/ 

Treasurys versus Gilts

British debt is a screaming buy
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/07/16/british-debt-is-a-screaming-buy/
Mispriced, overlooked and poised for a major reappraisal – UK gilts are a global bargain.

Did Economists Get it Wrong Again?

The Economy Seems Healthy. Were the Warnings About Tariffs Overblown?
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/16/business/tariffs-recession-economists.html
Economists say it will take time for the effects of trade policies to show up in economic data — but acknowledge they aren’t sure how long. 

Tariff 'doom loop' hangs over global equities
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/tariff-doom-loop-hangs-over-global-equities-2025-07-15/
The astonishing rebound in stocks since early April largely reflects investors' bet that U.S. President Donald Trump won't follow through on his tariff threats.

Bank Regulations - End of an Era?

Post-Crisis Rules to Keep Banks Safe Are on the Way Out
https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/financial-crisis-bank-regulations-lobbying-ef9bb0b4
On both sides of the Atlantic, there is a new willingness to rethink tough banking regulations. 

Interest Rates and Public Debt Management

Bessent's Interest Rate Bet Could Be a Big Loser
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-07-15/bessent-s-interest-rate-bet-could-be-a-big-loser
Regular and predictable debt management saves the government money. Why abandon it?

Revisiting the Interest Rate Effects of Federal Debt
https://www.nber.org/papers/w34018 

My take:

Investors beware: Fiscal dominance and financial repression ahead by VIVEKANAND JAYAKUMAR, The Hill - 07/13/25
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5397963-fed-keeping-rates-low-trump-administration/

The Meaning/Purpose of a College Education

I’m Watching the Sacrifice of College’s Soul
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/14/opinion/college-soul-ai-education.html

This Is Who’s Really Driving the Decline in Interest in Liberal Arts Education
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/17/opinion/liberal-arts-college-students-administration.html

Rethinking Global Alliances in the Trump Era

The resurrection of the London-Paris-Berlin triangle
https://www.ft.com/content/fb29477b-6212-4974-963f-530e96491a29
In the face of geopolitical instability, close trilateral relations are essential.
 
The importance of India and Europe walking in step
https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-importance-of-india-and-europe-walking-in-step/article69811956.ece 

Trump versus Markets: Circular Logic?

Trump TACO trade contains seeds of own unravelling
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/trump-taco-trade-contains-seeds-own-unravelling-2025-07-11/
Buoyant markets may reflect hopes that the US president will always chicken out of imposing harsh tariffs. Yet Donald Trump now cites largely calm stocks as cause for fresh charges, such as a 35% Canada levy. That sows the seed for a larger correction if he sticks to his guns. 

Travel: Best Countries to Visit

The 10 best countries on Earth

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news/telegraph-travel-awards-2025-best-countries/

Shifts in Western Political Economy

Democratic socialism is dying. First the socialism, now the democracy
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/12/democratic-socialism-dying-first-socialism-then-democracy/
Janet Daley:
So what went wrong? Why are our attempts to create an ethically acceptable state, funded by free markets (which is the definition of democratic socialism) becoming untenable? As the identity crisis of the West becomes more deranging, both halves of this idealistic formula – democracy and socialism – are becoming contentious.
The socialism part has simply turned out to be infinitely expensive. As Kemi Badenoch put it last week, the UK is now in danger of becoming “a welfare state with an economy attached”. Once the principle of relieving poverty became a commitment to removing all wealth inequality, the project was headed for self-destruction. 

Related:

The left’s losing streak
https://www.newstatesman.com/ideas/2025/07/the-lefts-losing-streak
Why populists keep winning and what progressives should do about it.

Which Forecast Do You Trust?

US recession risk soars as Trump tariffs hammer households
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/07/13/us-recession-risk-five-year-high-trump-hammers-households/
 
Economists See Lower Recession Risk and Stronger Job Growth: WSJ Survey
https://www.wsj.com/economy/economists-see-lower-recession-risk-and-stronger-job-growth-wsj-survey-10d6e476 

Fiscal Dominance and Financial Repression

Investors beware: Fiscal dominance and financial repression ahead by VIVEKANAND JAYAKUMAR, The Hill - 07/13/25
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5397963-fed-keeping-rates-low-trump-administration/

Related:

Carmen Reinhart
https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/econ_focus/2025/q3_interview
On twin financial and currency crises, the future of the dollar, and sovereign debt

Trump May End Up Sorry He Tried to Control the Fed
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-may-end-up-sorry-he-tried-to-control-the-fed-852b0dc5
Presidents struggled with monetary policy even before the central bank’s formal independence.
 
About That Tariff Budget Surplus
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-tariff-revenue-scott-bessent-federal-budget-deficit-04d771fd
Tariff income won’t come close to balancing the federal fisc.

Human Skills in the Age of AI

What Do Commercials About A.I. Really Promise?
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/critics-notebook/what-do-commercials-about-ai-really-promise
If human workers don’t have to read, write, or even think, it’s unclear what’s left for them to do. 

Seeking Historical Parallels

Why Compare the Present to the Past?
https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/30/history-analogies-geopolitics-policy-ideology/
Thinking via historical analogy has become the preferred way to confront our anxieties. 

The Case for Studying Economics

Want to be a good explorer? Study economics
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/07/10/want-to-be-a-good-explorer-study-economics
The battle to reduce risk has shaped centuries of ventures. 

UK's Public Finances

Britain is slipping closer towards a devastating debt spiral
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/07/12/britain-slips-closer-towards-a-devastating-debt-spiral/

Britain faces another showdown with the bond market
https://www.newstatesman.com/business/economics/2025/07/britain-faces-another-showdown-with-the-bond-market
Governments are finding it more expensive to borrow, and Britain is in an unusually weak position.
 
Britain’s public finances are bad. Their future looks worse
https://www.economist.com/britain/2025/07/10/britains-public-finances-are-bad-their-future-looks-worse 

How Labour can balance the books without doing more damage
https://www.ft.com/content/2691ecb1-a05e-45d2-8e87-23747db47570
The government must make painful spending cuts and broad-based tax rises.

Zero-Sum Mindset

To understand America today, study the zero-sum mindset, writes Stefanie Stantcheva
https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2025/07/07/to-understand-america-today-study-the-zero-sum-mindset-writes-stefanie-stantcheva
Young people and city-dwellers are among those most likely to see one group’s gain as another’s loss. 

Immigration versus Asylum

Scrap the asylum system—and build something better
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/07/10/scrap-the-asylum-system-and-build-something-better
Rich countries need to separate asylum from labor migration.
 
The global asylum system is falling apart
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2025/07/10/the-global-asylum-system-is-falling-apart
 
How governments gaslight
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-governments-gaslight/
 
The unspoken truth about 7/7
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-unspoken-truth-about-7-7/ 

Market Melt-Up

Battle-Hardened Wall Street Bulls Are Proving Very Hard to Scare
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-11/battle-hardened-wall-street-bulls-are-proving-very-hard-to-scare
 
The Danger of a Market Melt-Up
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/11/business/stock-market-melt-up-downturn.html
Traders have repeatedly shrugged off President Trump’s disruptive tariff wars and fiscal policy, pushing U.S. stock prices back into expensive territory, our columnist says. 

The markets are picking a dangerous fight with Donald Trump
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/07/11/the-markets-are-picking-a-dangerous-fight-with-donald-trump/
Investors think they’re calling the US president’s bluff. But somebody is paying for his historic trade taxes.

The Rest of the World Gets a Brain Gain

America’s Brain Drain Could Become the World’s Brain Gain
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/us-brain-drain-recruitment-02df18a7
Research-funding cuts and immigration changes threaten some of America’s economic advantages. 

Solar Power

4.6 Billion Years On, the Sun Is Having a Moment
https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-a-warming-planet/46-billion-years-on-the-sun-is-having-a-moment
In the past two years, without much notice, solar power has begun to truly transform the world’s energy system. 

Demographics and Economic Growth

Without Remedy, Countries with Aging Populations Are Set for Weaker Income Growth, Says OECD
https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/without-remedy-countries-with-aging-populations-are-set-for-weaker-income-growth-says-oecd-7ad9d2e7
The ratio of those who are past working age to those between 20 and 64 will likely jump above 75% in Italy, Japan, Poland, Spain and South Korea. 

The Dollar Debate

What will the global economy look like if it loses its monetary anchor?
https://www.ft.com/content/65a64965-028b-416a-9eac-fe9fb15ce38e
Too much of a good thing: The role of the global US dollar
https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/too-much-good-thing-role-global-us-dollar
A world with no safe assets
https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/world-no-safe-assets
Trumponomics, dollar diplomacy, and multipolarity
https://www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/monetizing-primacy/ 

The Dollar’s in Trouble, but Not for the Reason You Think
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/11/opinion/dollar-money-currency-payment.html

The exorbitant burden of exporting dollars makes it hard for America to govern at home

https://www.ft.com/content/95a77bb1-10c5-4dbc-ad8c-213c17131332

Is the Dollar’s Era of Exorbitant Privilege Ending?
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-07-15/us-dollar-s-exorbitant-privilege-may-end-with-trump-administration
The Trump administration wants a less globalized economy and a still-preeminent dollar. Getting both won’t be easy.

A Divided Fed

What Division Inside the Fed Means for Future Interest-Rate Cuts
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/what-division-inside-the-fed-means-for-future-rate-cuts-c5a9bdb8
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has sketched out new conditions that could trigger rate cuts by summer’s end, but inflation remains a big question. 

What happens when r > g

Jared Bernstein:
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/09/opinion/debt-deficit-economy-shock.html
The sustainability of our nation’s debt is determined by three variables: the size of our annual deficits, the rate of interest on the debt, and how fast the economy is growing. …
For decades, the interest rate America paid on its debts was low relative to its growth rate. As a result, the likelihood of some dangerous event, like lenders suddenly insisting on much higher interest rates, was also low. …
But … the interest rate our country pays on its debt has increased sharply, driven in part by government spending during the pandemic and by higher inflation. It’s shot up so much that it is now equal to our growth rate. That’s a potential game changer for debt sustainability.
 
The Debt Is About to Matter Again
https://www.theatlantic.com/economy/archive/2025/05/trump-tax-cut-debt/682922/
When interest rates outpace growth, very bad things can happen. 

A New Crypto Bubble?

Bitcoin’s Path to a New All-Time High, in Charts
https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/bitcoins-path-to-a-new-all-time-high-in-charts-b10370f1
Trump’s pro-crypto policies, corporate stockpiling and a stock-market rebound help fuel the latest rally.

When Coffee Shops Buy Bitcoin, Things Get Frothy
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-07-09/bitcoin-buying-and-coffee-are-too-frothy-a-mix
Raising cash for cryptocurrency is to corporate treasury what the NFT craze was to art. 

The Rise of BYD

Why Americans Can’t Buy the World’s Best Electric Car
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/08/opinion/byd-china-car-ev.html

Who Will be the Next Fed Chair?

Two Kevins Battle to Be Next Fed Chair in Trump’s ‘Apprentice’-Style Contest
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/trump-fed-chair-hassett-warsh-3373fe8e
Kevin Hassett has emerged as a contender to succeed Jerome Powell, posing a possible threat to Kevin Warsh, an early favorite.

Fed Governor Waller Is Trump’s Best Powell Replacement
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-07-08/trump-s-best-powell-replacement-is-fed-governor-waller
Appointing a candidate trusted by markets to lead an independent central bank is the best path to lower borrowing costs. 

Shifting Preferences and Declining Fertility Rates

Why Is Fertility So Low in High Income Countries? By Melissa Schettini Kearney & Phillip B. Levine
https://www.nber.org/papers/w33989
This paper considers why fertility has fallen to historically low levels in virtually all high-income countries. Using cohort data, we document rising childlessness at all observed ages and falling completed fertility. This cohort perspective underscores the need to explain long-run shifts in fertility behavior. We review existing research and conclude that period-based explanations focused on short-term changes in income or prices cannot explain the widespread decline. Instead, the evidence points to a broad reordering of adult priorities with parenthood occupying a diminished role. We refer to this phenomenon as “shifting priorities” and propose that it likely reflects a complex mix of changing norms, evolving economic opportunities and constraints, and broader social and cultural forces. We review emerging evidence on all these factors. We conclude the paper with suggestions for future research and a brief discussion of policy implications. 

South India - The Next Manufacturing Hub?

Will Trade War Make South India the Next Manufacturing Hub? By Dan Strumpf and Ruchi Bhatia
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-08/will-trade-war-make-south-india-the-next-manufacturing-hub
States like Tamil Nadu are dangling tax breaks and fast-tracking infrastructure, helping the country shake off its reputation as a difficult place to do business. 

Stock Markets – Time for a Reality Check?

What Me Worry? Markets Face a Rendezvous with Reality
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-07-08/stock-markets-face-a-rendezvous-with-economic-and-fiscal-reality
Investors have so far shrugged off the administration’s shambolic tariff wars, profligate fiscal policies and assaults on the central bank. Good luck with that. 

Investors Come Around to Trump’s Uncertainty
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/trump-market-uncertainty-investors-02be1e8b
Are the effects of geopolitical and tariff uncertainty on the economy still to come, or were they overestimated?

Meme Stocks and YOLO Bets Are Back and Fueling the Market’s Rally

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/market-speculation-meme-stocks-cd331396
Shares of unprofitable companies have outperformed since early April, and investors are now speculating like it’s 2021. 

Related:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/some-complacency-has-crept-in-how-fomo-and-speculative-bets-are-driving-the-2025-market-rally-133011080.html/

Congressional Bills – The Devil is in the Details

GOP megabill littered with special tax breaks
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/04/from-rum-to-gun-silencers-tailored-tax-breaks-add-billions-to-megabill-00438962
GOP lawmakers said the provisions provided needed economic relief for some industries, while they took fire from deficit hawks. 
 
How Trump’s Very MAGA Tax Cuts Break with GOP Tradition
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/07/05/trump-tax-cuts-megabill-republicans-00439787
Republicans have long been in favor of lower rates and a simpler tax code. For Trump, only one of those priorities mattered.

Big Beautiful Bill? It’s Certainly Big
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/big-beautiful-bill-its-certainly-big-22ec3fa7
But the ugly new law is one of the least popular acts ever.

 
Related:
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-financial-page/the-economic-consequences-of-the-big-odious-bill 

AI's Impact on Workers

Which Workers Will A.I. Hurt Most: The Young or the Experienced?
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/07/business/ai-job-cuts.html
Amid layoffs at Microsoft and other large tech companies, experts are debating whose jobs are most likely to be spared.
 
Welcome to Your Job Interview. Your Interviewer Is A.I.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/07/technology/ai-job-interviews.html
You thought artificial intelligence was coming for your job? First, it’s coming for your job interviewer. 

CEOs Start Saying the Quiet Part Out Loud: AI Will Wipe Out Jobs
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-white-collar-job-loss-b9856259
Ford chief predicts AI will replace ‘literally half of all white-collar workers’.

It’s a bad time to be a graduate
https://www.ft.com/content/002a0943-f977-44bd-bc78-957c877dfed1
AI is only one of the many pressures facing university leavers.

UK's Economic Malaise

Pension and housing policy is a war on Britain’s young
https://www.ft.com/content/e22a0d56-8d8a-4150-8133-44e7ec90da27
Residential property has become a tax-free retirement fund that excludes younger generations.
 
The roots of the British malaise lie in a sick economy
https://www.ft.com/content/8a4995cd-1f4e-4d39-a20f-880122a80853
Political responses to a bad situation tend towards either charlatanism or timidity. 

America's Political and Economic Splits

A tale of two Americas
https://www.ft.com/content/f4ee4500-6784-400b-940b-9bba928075c2
Donald Trump’s policy agenda does not address Republican economic realities. 

A New Era in Tennis

The Sincaraz Era Is Tennis Reborn
https://www.newyorker.com/sports/sporting-scene/the-sincaraz-era-is-tennis-reborn
In Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, the sport has not only its next great rivalry but a moment that highlights everything the sport can be. 

The Dilemmas Facing the Political Left

The Crisis of the Welfare State in Profile
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-crisis-of-the-welfare-state-in-profile-britain-labour-party-disability-reform-4789157d
Britain’s Labour Party revolts against modest disability reform.

Progressives’ Disdain of Genius Is a Problem for the West
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-07-04/progressives-disdain-of-genius-is-a-problem-for-the-west  
Geniuses are the most important natural resource of our age. 

Downside of the Two-Party System

The Institutions Protecting US Democracy Have Turned into Traps
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-03/us-democracy-s-strengths-turned-out-to-be-weaknesses
America’s two-party system has long been intended as a barrier against an extremism. Polarization is making it an accelerant instead. 

US versus International Stocks

How Much of Your Portfolio Should Be in International Stocks?
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/international-stocks-investing-portfolio-9f13600e
Overseas equities are beating domestic shares for one of the few times in 15 years, and some financial pros say it’s time for U.S. investors to get back in.

Tech Superstars

Superstar coders are raking it in. Others, not so much
https://www.economist.com/business/2025/07/01/superstar-coders-are-raking-it-in-others-not-so-much
For a few AI whizzes, pay is going ballistic. 

Threat of Fiscal Dominance

Trump’s ‘Fiscal Dominance’ Play
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/trump-federal-reserve-fiscal-dominance-1b74cd09
The president is pressuring the Fed to lower rates to make deficits easier to finance. This could end badly, but for now investors are on board.

The best check on Fed politicization is fear of being judged a failure, says Richard Clarida
https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2025/06/30/the-best-check-on-fed-politicisation-is-fear-of-being-judged-a-failure-says-richard-clarida
To install a loyalist, Donald Trump will have to overcome barriers in the courts, in Congress and in markets.

The Long Term Consequences of Trumpism

Trumponomics 2.0 will erode the foundations of America’s prosperity
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/07/03/trumponomics-20-will-erode-the-foundations-of-americas-prosperity
The Big Beautiful Bill is symptomatic of a wider malaise.
 
The big, beautiful bill reveals the hollowness of Trumponomics
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2025/07/02/the-big-beautiful-bill-reveals-the-hollowness-of-trumponomics

India’s License Raj offers America important lessons
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/07/02/indias-licence-raj-offers-america-important-lessons
Even when a protectionist system is dismantled, its problems can endure.

The Lunar Society is a cautionary tale for Trump’s America
https://www.ft.com/content/4612e9f1-09b5-4787-8b4c-5609bfd491cf
When political populism collides with scientific innovation, there is usually only one winner.
 
Related:
https://www.researchprofessionalnews.com/rr-news-world-2025-7-trump-s-science-cuts-will-see-china-overtake-us-this-year/
https://www.ft.com/content/96cb64bd-3985-4fef-bbb1-97020e9bf452

Innovator's Dilemma - The Case of Apple

Apple fruitlessly ponders the innovator’s dilemma
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/apple-fruitlessly-ponders-innovators-dilemma-2025-07-01/ 

Questions Surrounding the Quality (and Integrity) of US Economic Data

Why some fear government data on the U.S. economy is losing integrity
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/07/03/federal-reserve-economic-benchmarks-data-challenges/ 

America’s economic data are becoming murkier
https://www.economist.com/united-states/2025/06/29/americas-economic-data-are-becoming-murkier
Choked for funds, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is cutting corners.

Crisis Ahead for Social Security?

The Social Security Crisis Is Coming
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-social-security-crisis-is-coming-532074f7
The system’s trust fund is expected to run out by 2033 unless Congress takes action. 

Can Europe Compete with America and China?

In Europe, Economists See a Chance to Rise on the Global Stage
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/03/business/europe-economy-trump-competition.html
Central bankers who gathered in Portugal this week focused on ways that Europe could improve its competitiveness with the United States and China. 

The Big, Beautiful Bill

US fiscal folly could create big, beautiful debt spiral
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-fiscal-folly-could-create-big-beautiful-debt-spiral-2025-07-03/

Wall Street Worries as Crisis-Level Deficits Become the Government’s Default Mode
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/wall-street-crisis-deficits-default-mode-bf1f5940
New legislation could push federal debt into dangerous territory—without an emergency requiring it.

Congress just pushed the U.S. toward a debt crisis. The Fed can’t save us.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/07/03/debt-crisis-congress-budget-federal-reserve/

How Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ Will Make China Great Again
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/03/opinion/trump-bill-clean-energy-china.html

Trump has dropped a big, beautiful bomb on America’s economy
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/07/03/trump-has-dropped-big-beautiful-bomb-on-americas-economy/

 
How Bad Is This Bill? The Answer in 10 Charts
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/07/03/opinion/domestic-policy-bill-in-charts.html
 
The Republican Budget Bill Is an Economy Killer
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-07-03/republicans-one-big-beautiful-bill-is-an-economy-killer
This legislation promises to become a poster child of Congress working against the country’s interests and in stubborn opposition to economists’ advice.
 
Magical Thinking at the CEA
https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/magical-thinking-at-the-cea
The CEA's analysis of the OBBBA leaves much to be desired. 

Is the US Labor Market Deteriorating?

The Job Market Is Humming? Surely This Isn’t as Good as It Gets
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-07-03/the-job-market-is-humming-surely-this-isn-t-as-good-as-it-gets

The labor market is discouraging more and more workers. Immigrants and young grads may be stepping away.

The Jobs Market Is Starting to Fall Apart
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/job-market-labor-us-economy-a3e94136
Even if Thursday’s jobs report comes in strong, a look behind the headline number tells a different story. 

Higher Education in the Age of AI

We’re Losing the Plot on AI in Universities
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-07-06/we-re-losing-the-plot-on-ai-in-universities  
Implementing new technology is messy. The most important parts of learning cannot be replaced by a machine.

What Happens After A.I. Destroys College Writing?
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/07/07/the-end-of-the-english-paper
The demise of the English paper will end a long intellectual tradition, but it’s also an opportunity to reexamine the purpose of higher education. 

The Seductions of A.I. for the Writer’s Mind
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/18/opinion/ai-chatgpt-school.html
Ensnaring students is not a long-term solution to the challenge A.I. poses to the humanities. This summer, educators and administrators need to reckon with what generative A.I. is doing to the classroom and to human expression. We need a coherent approach grounded in understanding how the technology works, where it is going and what it will be used for. As a teacher of creative writing, I set out to understand what A.I. could do for students, but also what it might mean for writing itself. My conversations with A.I. showcased its seductive cocktail of affirmation, perceptiveness, solicitousness and duplicity — and brought home how complicated this new era will be.

Junk Food for the Mind
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/03/opinion/aritificial-intelligence-education.html
David Brooks:
Researchers have a method called dynamic directed transfer function, or D.D.T.F., which measures the coherence and directionality of the neural networks and can be interpreted in the context of executive function, attention regulation and other related cognitive processes. The brain-only writers had the highest D.D.T.F. connectivity. The search engine group demonstrated between 34 percent to 48 percent lower total connectivity, and the A.I. group demonstrated up to 55 percent lower D.D.T.F. connectivity.
The researchers conclude, “Collectively, these findings support the view that external support tools restructure not only task performance but also the underlying cognitive architecture.”

How Do You Teach Computer Science in the A.I. Era?
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/30/technology/computer-science-education-ai.html
Universities across the country are scrambling to understand the implications of generative A.I.’s transformation of technology.

Tariffs and Inflation - Extent of Passthrough Matters

The Surprising Tariff Lesson Buried in Inflation Data
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-07-02/the-surprising-tariff-lesson-inflation-history-teaches
Businesses tend to shield consumers from outsized price gains — at least for a time. 

Debt Burden in LDEs

As Debt Piles Up, Countries See Fiscal Relief as Political Leverage
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/01/business/debt-eu-africa-china.html
With developing nations crushed by unaffordable borrowing and Washington on the sidelines, some leaders are brokering debt forgiveness deals. 

US Real Estate Market - Trouble Ahead

The Worst Housing Market in America Is Now Florida’s Cape Coral
https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/florida-cape-coal-home-prices-3f64a0df
Home prices have been battered by everything from overbuilding to insurance costs. Realtors warn there’s further to fall. 

Boom-and-Bust Oil Puts Houston at Center of Real Estate Crisis
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-06-30/trump-s-drill-baby-drill-meets-empty-real-estate-in-oil-capital-houston

More Homeowners Find Themselves Underwater
https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/underwater-mortgages-negative-equity-charts-4e5978a1
Some who bought around the market peak in pandemic boomtowns owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. 

Trends in US Healthcare Expenditure

National Health Expenditure Projections, 2024–33: Despite Insurance Coverage Declines, Health to Grow as Share of GDP (Health Affairs, July 2025).
https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/epdf/10.1377/hlthaff.2025.00545 

How Health Care Remade the U.S. Economy
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/07/03/business/economy/healthcare-jobs.html

Broken Politics

America’s Broken Politics Is Breaking Economics, Too
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-07-01/america-s-broken-politics-is-breaking-economics-too
Disputes over economic policy are no longer between right and left, but between populist and centrist.
 
Thom Tillis Knew What the GOP Refused to Hear
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-07-01/on-senate-tax-bill-thom-tillis-knew-what-the-gop-refused-to-hear
The GOP reconciliation bill is forcing independent-minded Republicans to make hard choices — like whether to stay in politics at all.
 
Trump’s True Colors, Revealed
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/01/opinion/trump-big-beautiful-bill-populism.html
The Trump tax-and-spending bill comes in the wake of one of the most significant developments in American politics over the past quarter-century: The Republican Party, once the representative of Wall Street and Main Street, has become the party of low-income white America while remaining committed to the trickle-down economic policies of the 1980s.
“The ongoing shift of the class profile of the two parties has radically changed the character of Republican and Democratic areas of the country,” Jacob Hacker, a political scientist at Yale, wrote by email. “Districts represented by Republican members of Congress — as well as counties that supported Trump in the last election — are poorer, more rural, less dense, have fewer college graduates and are more likely to be in areas scarred by deindustrialization.”
 
Related:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/07/01/trump-healthcare-cuts-risk-turning-rural-poor-off-maga/