Attention Economy


Wednesday, May 31, 2023

Indian Economy Posts Solid Growth Figures

Fed Looks to Pause in June

Climate Change and the Insurance Industry

Climate Shocks Are Making Parts of America Uninsurable. It Just Got Worse.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/31/climate/climate-change-insurance-wildfires-california.html
The largest insurer in California said it would stop offering new coverage. It’s part of a broader trend of companies pulling back from dangerous areas. 

Why insurance companies are pulling out of California and Florida, and how to fix some of the underlying problems
https://theconversation.com/why-insurance-companies-are-pulling-out-of-california-and-florida-and-how-to-fix-some-of-the-underlying-problems-207172

Your Homeowners’ Insurance Bill Is the Canary in the Climate Coal Mine
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/07/opinion/climate-change-homeowners-insurance-housing-market.html
If you don’t think you’ve been affected by global warming, take a closer look at your last homeowners’ insurance bill: The average cost of coverage has reached $1,900 a year nationwide, but it’s $4,000 a year in New Orleans and about $5,000 a year in Miami, according to Policygenius, an online insurance marketplace. And that is pocket change compared with the impact climate change may ultimately have on the value of your home.
We have reached a turning point: Climate risk is driving insurer decisions like never before. 

Why Taiwan Matters


How Taiwan became the indispensable economy
https://ig.ft.com/taiwan-economy/

Political Dysfunction and the ‘Moron Premium’

It’s America that deserves the moron premium
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/30/debt-ceiling-moron-premium/
Britain is not the only nation with unstable politics
 
The Politics of Delusion Have Taken Hold
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/31/opinion/politics-partisanship-delusion.html
 
Politics and Car Dealerships
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2023/05/rich-republicans-party-car-dealers-2024-desantis.html 

Tuesday, May 30, 2023

Hospitals, Primary Care Facilities, and Healthcare Costs

Minnesota wanted to curb health spending. Mayo Clinic had other ideas.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/30/minnesota-health-spending-mayo-clinic-00098460
The battle showed how hard it can be to tackle rising health care costs.

Corporate Giants Buy Up Primary Care Practices at Rapid Pace
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/08/health/primary-care-doctors-consolidation.html
Large health insurers and other companies are especially keen on doctors’ groups that care for patients in private Medicare plans.

Americans are knee-deep in medical debt. Most owe hospitals.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2023/03/18/medical-debt-hits-poor-hardest/

Singapore versus Hong Kong

State of the Chinese Economy


China’s Young People Can’t Find Jobs. Xi Jinping Says to ‘Eat Bitterness.’
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/30/business/china-youth-unemployment.html

China’s three ‘grey rhinos’ – demographic crisis, debt and decoupling – are growing, threatening economic growth

Assessing Recession Risks

Did we just dodge a recession? By Vivekanand Jayakumar, The Hill - 05/30/23
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4024671-did-we-just-dodge-a-recession/
Toward the end of 2022, there was an unusually strong consensus that the U.S. economy was headed for a recession in 2023. Yet, so far this year, American consumers have remained resilient, the labor market has remained tight and the housing market has been reinvigorated by an uptick in construction and sale of newly-built homes. Even the stock market appears to have regained some swagger as analysts raise their year-end targets for major indices. 
Why did 10 consecutive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, which cumulatively pushed interest rates up by 500-basis points, fail to generate a noticeable slowdown in U.S. economic activity?  

Full list of my opinion pieces:

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Global Economy: Trio of critical signs point to global economic slowdown
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trio-of-critical-signs-point-to-global-economic-slowdown
Downturn in copper prices, weak shipping rates and historic yield inversion raise red flags

Monday, May 29, 2023

The Debt Limit Agreement

Why Spending Cuts Likely Won’t Shake the Economy
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/29/us/politics/debt-ceiling-economy.html
With low unemployment and above-trend inflation, the economy is well positioned to absorb the modest budget cuts that President Biden and Republicans negotiated.
 
What’s in the Bipartisan Debt Limit Agreement
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/29/business/debt-ceiling-agreement.html
Spending caps, additional work requirements for food stamps and a new natural gas pipeline are just several of the components in a deal President Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy reached to prevent default.
 
Related:

US Labor Market - Interesting Developments

Why are red states hiring so much faster than blue states?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/05/26/hiring-red-blue-states/ 
Our analysis showed workers from low-income families face higher turnover in red states, even as folks from higher-income families actually had more job security in those same places.
The disparity seems rooted in education. The job-turnover gap between Trump and Biden states yawns widest among those with the least education. It closes as worker education rises and completely flips for workers with the highest education: They see more job security in Trump states than in Biden ones.

 
Related:
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/why-red-states-hiring-much-185822971.html


More High-School Grads Forgo College in Hot Labor Market
https://www.wsj.com/articles/more-high-school-grads-forgo-college-in-hot-labor-market-c052c773
Share of young people seeking higher education slips since pandemic began

Quants and the Stock Market Calm

Why Are Markets So Calm? Quants Are Dominating
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-are-markets-so-calm-its-revenge-of-the-quant-funds-26a93425
Firms that use computers to determine buy and sell signals have been loading up while other investors sit back 

UK’s WFH Problem

How Gen Z are proudly shirking from home – and taking the economy down with them
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/gen-z-millennials-refusing-work-hard-britain-economy/
For a generation of young Britons, remote working is the norm. But all is not well in the home offices of twenty-somethings 

High Cost of Groceries

The Real Reason Your Groceries Are Getting So Expensive
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/29/opinion/inflation-groceries-pricing-walmart.html 

Related:
Companies Push Prices Higher, Protecting Profits but Adding to Inflation
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/30/business/economy/inflation-companies-profits-higher-prices.html
The bags of Doritos, cartons of Tropicana orange juice and bottles of Gatorade drinks sold by PepsiCo are now substantially pricier. Customers have grumbled, but they have largely kept buying. Shareholders have cheered.

Evolution of the BRICS Club

Sunday, May 28, 2023

Martin Amis (1949-2023)

Martin Amis – a life in quotes
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/may/20/martin-amis-a-life-in-quotes
 
A stylist, yes, but Martin Amis was also right on the money
https://www.ft.com/content/295c3e9e-0b9a-4c60-bc97-c50fb6567b62 

ErdoÄŸan Retains Power

Europe - Economic and Political Challenges

The Dollar Is Still King in Europe, and It’s Swaying Interest Rates
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-dollar-is-still-king-in-europe-and-its-swaying-interest-rates-179f01e5
 
Germany’s slipped into recession and everyone should be worried
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-olaf-scholz-europe-eurozone-slipped-into-recession-and-everyone-should-be-worried/
 
Is the UK Suffering from Economic Amnesia?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2023/05/27/the-unbearable-cost-of-economic-amnesia/
Not so long ago, Britain’s leaders would have understood how to climb free of our current low-growth, high-inflation malaise. Take seriously the power of incentives and fight the urge to regulate everything in sight. Control the money and credit supply and grasp the role of monetary policy in keeping inflation (of assets as well as goods) in check. Release entrepreneurial energy and investment by cutting taxes, and allow much more house-building. Resist the temptation to plan the nation’s industrial policy or shake down unpopular companies for extra revenue.
 
They got Brexit done. So why are UK Tories still angry about immigration?
https://www.politico.eu/article/tories-brexit-done-uk-conservatives-on-immigration-rishi-sunak/ 

China Attempts to Break the Airbus-Boeing Duopoly

India Gets a New Parliament Building

Exclusive details of the New Parliament Building (Hindi Version)

Women Engineers in F1 Motorsport

In Formula 1, more and more women are finding careers as engineers and strategists with some of the most successful teams in the circuit.

Saturday, May 27, 2023

Generative AI - Winners and Losers

The workers getting rich off the AI revolution – while others lose their jobs
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/05/27/ai-revolution-engineer-machine-learning-coding-jobs-chatgpt/
Popularity of platforms such as ChatGPT is already producing clear winners and losers
 
The AI Gold Rush Will Take Humanity to Some Dark Places
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-05-23/the-ai-gold-rush-will-take-humanity-to-some-dark-places
Encoding iris scans on the blockchain shows a need to curb Silicon Valley’s savior complex. 
 
Related:
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2023/05/nvidia-ai-gold-rush-winner.html 

US Policy Towards Africa

Stock Ownership Trends

Stock ownership among Americans hits highest level in 15 years, poll finds
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-ownership-among-americans-hits-highest-level-in-15-years-poll-finds-201814203.html
“Baby boomers heading into retirement have had a wonderful experience owning stocks, not just for the past 10 to 15 years but in the 1980s and 1990s as well,” Benz said. “Anecdotally, it's very difficult to convince older adults to de-risk their portfolios as retirement approaches. Suggesting that they lighten up on stocks is like asking them to part with their prized possessions.” 

Shifting Priorities of Tech Workers

They built the digital world. Now they just want to sew and make chairs.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/05/27/tech-workers-new-hobby-woodworking-sewing/
Those who came up in the era of ‘move fast and break things’ are learning to slow down and make things. 

Gambling With America’s Credibility

U.S. leaders gamble with world’s most trusted asset in debt showdown
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/05/27/debt-default-financial-system-wall-street/
Episode could mean higher borrowing costs for government, companies and consumers 

Economic Factors Underlying the Decline in Birth Rates

Why Americans Are Having Fewer Babies
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-americans-are-having-fewer-babies-3be7f6a9
The U.S. birthrate is down sharply from 15 years ago, as women report that economic and social obstacles are causing them to have fewer children than they want. 

Friday, May 26, 2023

End of the Peace Dividend


The ‘Peace Dividend’ Is Over in Europe. Now Come the Hard Tradeoffs.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/03/business/economy/russia-ukraine-war-defense-spending.html
Defending against an unpredictable Russia in years to come will mean bumping up against a strained social safety net and ambitious climate transition plans.



Political Extremism in Chile

How the Far Left Paves the Way for the Far Right
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/chiles-far-left-boric-paves-way-for-far-right-kast-by-andres-velasco-2023-05
In October 2022, Chileans elected a far-left constitutional convention which produced a text so bizarrely radical that nearly two-thirds of voters rejected it. Now Chileans have elected a new Constitutional Council and put a far-right party in the driver’s seat. 

ESG - Hype versus Reality

The Hottest Trend in Investing Is Mostly a Sham
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/05/esg-woke-investing-trend-reality/674197/
ESG, which stands for “environmental, social, and governance,” purports to allow investors to put their money into companies that care about not just their bottom line, but their impact on the world. ESG has been one of the hottest trends in investing over the past five years. There are now numerous ESG indexes and hundreds of ESG funds, including from the biggest institutional investors, that collectively have garnered trillions of dollars in assets. 

Thursday, May 25, 2023

Nvidia - AI Gold Rush Winner

Why Nvidia is suddenly one of the most valuable companies in the world
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/05/25/nvidia-ai-stock-gpu-chatbots/
 
A.I. Demand Lifts Nvidia Toward Trillion-Dollar Valuation
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/25/business/dealbook/nvidia-outlook-artificial-intelligence.html
 
Nvidia Stock Hits New Closing High as Chip Maker Approaches $1 Trillion Valuation
https://www.wsj.com/articles/nvidia-shares-jump-as-chip-maker-approaches-1-trillion-valuation-7f8ccd68

Controversies Surrounding Affirmative Action

Reflections on ‘Reflections of an Affirmative Action Baby’
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/25/opinion/columnists/affirmative-action-stephen-carter.html
An early critic of groupthink, Carter warned against “the idea that Black people who gain positions of authority or influence are vested a special responsibility to articulate the presumed views of other people who are Black — in effect, to think and act and speak in a particular way, the Black way — and that there is something peculiar about Black people who insist on doing anything else.”
In the past, such ideas might have been seen as “frankly racist,” Carter noted. “Now, however, they are almost a gospel for people who want to show their commitment to equality.” This belies the reality that Black people, he said, “fairly sparkle with diversity of outlook.”
 
Related:
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2023/04/standardized-tests-and-meritocracy.html
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2022/09/merit-based-education.html
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2022/04/college-admissions-controversies.html
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2022/04/the-case-for-meritocracy-in-higher.html 

Florida's Housing Market

Fla. home prices are holding steady, and even rising, as people flock south
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/05/23/florida-home-prices-miami-tampa/
Florida home prices are holding steady — and in some cases, rising — as white-collar professionals flock to the state in search of tax breaks and beach views.
 
In DeSantis’ Sunshine State, life is not all sunny
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/24/desantis-florida-blueprint-housing-insurance-00098684
A lack of affordable housing and rising insurance rates are not going unnoticed. 

Generative AI and College Education

Is AI Our Future Teacher?
https://youtu.be/4p0h6WZZyIo?t=68

Recession in Germany

Weakening German Economy Slips into a Recession
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/25/business/german-economy-q1-gdp.html

Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households

Wednesday, May 24, 2023

G7 Needs a Reality Check

The G7 must accept that it cannot run the world
https://www.ft.com/content/c8cf024d-87b7-4e18-8fa2-1b8a3f3fbba1
American hegemony and the group’s economic dominance are now history 

Adani Group is Not Going Away

After Nearly Collapsing, Indian Billionaire’s Stock Is Back on the Rise
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/24/business/adani-stock-price.html
The Adani Group’s position within India’s political economy looks strengthened, if not fully repaired. That is an important development for more than just the stock market’s winners and losers. Mr. Modi’s vision for India depends on building a great deal of infrastructure.
The country has already sped up and improved a record number of projects during his nine years in power. Airports, highways, power transmission and more are all drastically better and more plentiful, more so than other indicators like private investment, which economists say is lagging. Much of the funding comes from the government. But building needs private partners, too. 

Is Gold a Good Investment?

Tuesday, May 23, 2023

Cybersecurity and Tech

This Is Why I Teach My Law Students How to Hack
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/23/opinion/cybersecurity-hacking.html
Scott J. Shapiro notes:
Consider legal liability. The law offers few incentives for software developers to write better, more secure code. It rarely imposes substantial penalties for data breaches, which means that tech companies lack a financial motivation to take security seriously. The median American company budgets 10 percent for I.T., and 24 percent of that on security. That’s roughly 2 percent earmarked for protecting activities that companies understand, rightly, to be critical to their operations.
We can change that business calculus. We should, for example, hold software companies financially responsible for negligently building insecure software, a proposal recently endorsed by President Biden’s National Cybersecurity Strategy. Instead of shelling out money for private companies to fix bad technology, legislators should get them to produce good technology in the first place. 

What is a Good Job?

What makes a job good? New poll sheds light on the factors workers rank highest.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/05/23/post-poll-remote-work-hybrid-future/ 

UK Inflation Basics

From CPI to stagflation: how the UK tracks price rises and what key inflation terms mean
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/23/cpi-stagflation-uk-price-rises-key-inflation-terms 

Game Theory and the Debt-Ceiling Negotiations

The Game Theory of the Debt Limit Points Toward Settlement
https://www.barrons.com/articles/debt-limit-negotiations-markets-mccarthy-biden-6e27f99a
Larry Hatheway notes:
To begin, this is not a classical prisoner’s dilemma, where cooperation is preferred, but incentives not to cooperate yield a classic “lose-lose” (in other words, suboptimal) result. That is a good thing, as the (dis)incentives point to cooperation, not self-interested defeat.
If one thinks of the possible outcomes: First, each side cooperates to reach a negotiated settlement. Second, one side negotiates in good faith, but the other does not. Or third, neither side negotiates in good faith, then the debt-ceiling negotiations are not akin to a prisoner’s dilemma because the negative payoffs (the losses) associated with not cooperating are potentially so large for both sides as to make cooperation the most likely outcome. 

Related:
The Way Out of the Debt Crisis Could Lead Back Through the Civil War
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/24/opinion/debt-crisis-civil-war.html
 
The unique absurdity of the U.S.’s looming debt default
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/24/debt-ceiling-denmark-united-states-default/

Market Concentration Problem in the US Defense Industry

Military contract price gouging: Defense contractors overcharge Pentagon

Twitter Financial Sentiment Index

More than Words: Twitter Chatter and Financial Market Sentiment
Authors: Travis Adams, Andrea Ajello, Diego Silva, Francisco Vazquez-Grande
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2023034pap.pdf
Abstract:
We build a new measure of credit and financial market sentiment using Natural Language Processing on Twitter data. We find that the Twitter Financial Sentiment Index (TFSI) correlates highly with corporate bond spreads and other price- and survey-based measures of financial conditions. We document that overnight Twitter financial sentiment helps predict next day stock market returns. Most notably, we show that the index contains information that helps forecast changes in the U.S. monetary policy stance: a deterioration in Twitter financial sentiment the day ahead of an FOMC statement release predicts the size of restrictive monetary policy shocks. Finally, we document that sentiment worsens in response to an unexpected tightening of monetary policy. 

Summer 2023 Book Recommendations

 


Beware of the AI Gold Rush

The AI Gold Rush Will Take Humanity to Some Dark Places
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-05-23/the-ai-gold-rush-will-take-humanity-to-some-dark-places
Encoding iris scans on the blockchain shows a need to curb Silicon Valley’s savior complex. 

India-Australia - A New Strategic and Economic Partnership

 

Rise in Corporate Bankruptcies

Corporate bankruptcies are creeping up as pressures in the economy grow
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/05/23/corporate-bankruptcies-increase/ 

Corporate bankruptcies are on the rise — and the pain won’t end for a while
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/22/economy/bankruptcies-pick-up-pace/index.html

History Lesson: Universal Basic Income

The triumph of cash: How universal basic income was adapted for the neoliberal era.
https://www.newstatesman.com/the-weekend-essay/2023/05/triumph-cash-basic-income-oliver-eagleton 

Declining Literacy - A Cause for Concern

Real Estate Economics: Housing Markets in US and Europe

Are home prices falling? See what it’s like in your area.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2023/housing-market-price-trends/

US new home sales soar to 13-month high in April
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-new-home-sales-soar-13-month-high-april-2023-05-23/
Related:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-23/us-new-home-sales-unexpectedly-increase-for-a-second-month
 
In Today’s Housing Market, It’s Timing Over Location
https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-todays-housing-market-its-timing-over-location-eefdb890
Steep increases in home prices and mortgage rates have set buyers on divergent financial trajectories—even when they bought only a year or two apart.

A Housing Bust Comes for Thousands of Small-Time Investors
https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-housing-bust-comes-for-thousands-of-small-time-investors-3934beb3
They were offered the benefits of owning apartment-building rentals without any of the work, in real-estate investments that have already left some people empty-handed.
 
The Biggest South Florida Housing Boom Is Near the Rail Stations
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-biggest-south-florida-housing-boom-is-near-the-rail-stations-d6101467
 
Imagine a Renters’ Utopia. It Might Look Like Vienna.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/23/magazine/vienna-social-housing.html
Soaring real estate markets have created a worldwide housing crisis. What can we learn from a city that has largely avoided it? 

Monday, May 22, 2023

AI and Stock Trading

ChatGPT-powered Wall Street: The benefits and perils of using artificial intelligence to trade stocks and other financial instruments
https://theconversation.com/chatgpt-powered-wall-street-the-benefits-and-perils-of-using-artificial-intelligence-to-trade-stocks-and-other-financial-instruments-201436 

Forget AI. The Real Risk Is the Dumbing Down of Markets.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-05-23/artificial-intelligence-the-real-risk-is-the-dumbing-down-of-markets
As the indexing trend of recent years shows, replacing smart humans with stupid computers has more downside than upside for markets.
Related:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/05/23/artificial-intelligence-the-real-risk-is-the-dumbing-down-of-markets/67190e58-f958-11ed-bafc-bf50205661da_story.html
 
An A.I.-Generated Spoof Rattles the Markets
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/23/business/ai-picture-stock-market.html

Nepotism has a Long History

The History of Nepo Babies Is the History of Humanity
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/05/29/the-world-a-family-history-of-humanity-simon-sebag-montefiore-book-review
From ancient dynasties to modern fortunes, family has long defined our past, present, and future. 

Does Monetary Policy Matter?

2023 AEA Presidential Address by Christina Romer, University of California-Berkeley
Topic: Does Monetary Policy Matter? The Narrative Approach after 35 Years [Video]
https://www.aeaweb.org/webcasts/2023/aea-presidential-address

The Impressive Rally in Nikkei 225

Japan stocks lead Asia with $400bn in gains, twice as much as China
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Japan-stocks-lead-Asia-with-400bn-in-gains-twice-as-much-as-China
Overseas investors drive rally with biggest buying in years
 
Related:
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2023/05/is-japan-finally-back.html 



College Education: The Return on Investment Calculus

The ROI Riddle: Federal and state officials are pushing for new clarity on career outcomes, but that may not matter to many.
https://www.chronicle.com/article/better-data-on-graduates-earnings-is-coming-soon-to-a-dashboard-near-you-will-it-make-a-difference 

Related:

AI and the Future of Education

The AI revolution already transforming education
https://www.ft.com/content/47fd20c6-240d-4ffa-a0de-70717712ed1c
Schools and universities are using ChatGPT in the classroom, but will it devalue the fundamentals of learning?

Shifting Labor Market: White-Collar Jobs Under Threat

Nine Rounds of Interviews and No Call Back: It’s Harder Than Ever to Land a White-Collar Job
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-its-harder-than-ever-to-land-white-collar-job-978c7bc7

The Disappearing White-Collar Job
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-disappearing-white-collar-job-af0bd925
A once-in-a-generation convergence of technology and pressure to operate more efficiently has corporations saying many lost jobs may never return 

Almost 200,000 Job Cuts in Tech Pushes New Grads to Wall Street
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-23/how-to-get-a-job-in-2023-young-workers-eye-finance-with-tech-struggling
With prominent companies culling workers and cutting pay for new hires, more young workers are reconsidering finance jobs.

Harvard MBA Grads Enter a Tepid Job Market Hoping for the Best
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-01/harvard-mba-grads-anxiously-navigate-a-tepid-job-market
Students and faculty say the final semester has been suffused with worry and a higher share of the class leaving school unemployed.

Why job searches suck right now
https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-chatgpt-hiring-ghost-interviews-job-search-weird-labor-market-2023-5
Applicants are sending out hundreds of job applications and hearing nothing back. Ghost jobs, AI résumé screening, and a lopsided economy are making the job search miserable.



No Degree? No Problem. Biden Tries to Bridge the ‘Diploma Divide.’
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/15/us/politics/biden-working-class-voters.html
President Biden is trying to appeal to working-class voters by emphasizing his plans to create well-paid jobs that do not require a college degree.

Evolution of US Truck Stops

Hyundai's Cool Factor

How Did Hyundai Get So Cool?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/hyundai-kia-ev-tesla-7936b777
The Korean carmaker known for its budget brands has become an EV innovator. Now its electric vehicles are turning heads at rival car companies—and among buyers. 

Banking Sector Issues

Bank Runs Trash Long-Held Assumption on Deposits
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bank-runs-trash-long-held-assumption-on-deposits-474afcc5
Bank executive and regulators have long believed that a lender’s deposit business goes up in value when rates increase. This year’s bank failures are upending that theory.
 
For banks, commercial property is a risk — and an opportunity
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/05/22/commercial-property-default-loans-banks/

Are Superstar Cities in Trouble?

Bye-Bye New York, Hello Fayetteville.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-05-22/new-york-is-losing-to-smaller-cities-in-the-talent-race
It’s easier for small towns to develop the services and amenities to attract new talent than it is for New York City to build affordable housing. 

Coastal Cities Priced Out Low-Wage Workers. Now College Graduates Are Leaving, Too.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/05/15/upshot/migrations-college-super-cities.html 

Related:
The Pre-Pandemic View 
Richard Florida's interesting take on the dominance of 'Superstar Cities'
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/04/richard-florida-winner-take-all-new-urban-crisis/522630/

The Case for Industrialization

Want to Save the Planet? Re-Industrialize
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/2023/05/15/energy-revolution-want-to-save-the-planet-re-industrialize/5013f71e-f35d-11ed-918d-012572d64930_story.html
Andy Mukherjee:
Just as the machine-smashing Luddites of the 19th century were wrong about the consequences of technical progress for jobs, so may be the champions of the more recent theory of “degrowth.” Sold as our best chance against global warming, it threatens to trap 80% of the world’s population at living standards the developed world would never tolerate. 

Following Your Passion - Bad Career Advice?

The Most Common Graduation Advice Tends to Backfire
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/22/opinion/stem-women-gender-disparity.html
Sapna Cheryan and Therese Anne Mortejo:
As American high school and college students graduate and embark on the next phases of their lives, one piece of advice they will undoubtedly receive is to “follow your passions” or some equivalent sentiment. It seems like fine guidance, however clichéd: Do something that feels true to yourself, rather than conforming to expectations.
But following your passions often turns out to be a bad idea. New research that we and our colleagues conducted found that when asked to identify their passions, women and men tend to cite stereotypically feminine and masculine interests and behavior. Women are more likely to say they want to make art or help people, for instance, while men are more likely to say they want to do science or play sports.
 
Related:
Does the follow-your-passions ideology cause greater academic and occupational gender disparities than other cultural ideologies?
https://psycnet.apa.org/buy/2023-68958-001 

Sunday, May 21, 2023

Is Japan Finally Back?

Investors Are Putting Big Money into Japan Again. Here’s Why.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/14/business/japan-stock-markets.html

In Contrast to China, Japan at G-7 Basks in Newfound Appeal to Companies
https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-contrast-to-china-japan-at-g-7-basks-in-newfound-appeal-to-companies-c3da2ce
 
Japan stocks surge to highest since 1990
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/19/asia-markets.html 

Adverse Impact of Social Media

Dr. Sanjay Gupta: Parenting in the era of ubiquitous screens and social media
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/20/health/parenting-social-media-screens-gupta-wellness/index.html
Like many parents, I thought of devices for my kids as glorified toys that could entertain them if needed and provide a valuable communication tool in case of an emergency. That changed after I read a book by Jean Twenge called “iGen: Why Today’s Super-Connected Kids Are Growing Up Less Rebellious, More Tolerant, Less Happy – and Completely Unprepared for Adulthood – and What That Means for the Rest of Us.”...
Twelfth-graders now are more like eighth-graders from previous generations, waiting longer to take part in activities associated with independence and adulthood, according to Twenge. They are less likely to go out with friends, drive, go to prom or drink alcohol than Gen X 12th-graders were. They are more likely to lie on their beds and scroll through endless social media feeds. They may be physically safer, but the long-term effect on their mental and brain health is a big question mark. 

The AI Debate Roils Silicon Valley

The debate over deadly AI is ripping Silicon Valley apart
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/05/20/ai-existential-risk-debate/
Prominent tech leaders are warning artificial intelligence could take over. Other researchers and executives say it’s science fiction. 

Retiring Abroad

Here’s What Retirement Looks Like for Americans Abroad
https://www.wsj.com/articles/heres-what-retirement-looks-like-for-americans-abroad-e2ee4294
Six retirees open up about the financial and personal challenges of relocating overseas in retirement 

Importance of the Treasury Bond Market

Saturday, May 20, 2023

Multipolar World Order

This is the hour of the global south
https://www.ft.com/content/53d6a7ef-2aa8-4607-a8c6-1c28ffb96c16
Alec Russell:
Many non-western nations have looked on at the west’s full-throttle support for Ukraine and seen hypocritical powers yet again prioritising their own interests and concerns over the big global issues such as health and climate change. They also sense two major opportunities: to play the US and China off against each other, and, as they see it, a long overdue rewriting of the post-1945 world order.
 
Modi says he will 'amplify concerns of Global South' at G-7
https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/Interview/Modi-says-he-will-amplify-concerns-of-Global-South-at-G-7 

The Two-Percent Inflation Target

Wall Street Increasingly Doubts Fed Can Meet 2% Inflation Target
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-20/wall-street-increasingly-doubts-fed-can-meet-2-inflation-target
 
I stated in my piece for The Hill on April 19, 2022:
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3272668-is-4-percent-inflation-the-new-normal/
Given the Fed’s belated actions and the limitations of its policy tools, financial markets and the citizenry may have to consider the possibility that inflation will remain elevated (above the 2 percent target) for an extended period. The new normal for inflation may, in fact, be between 3-4 percent.


Related:
Why Is Inflation So Stubborn? Cars Are Part of the Answer.

American Prestige

The True Cost of an Extended US Debt-Ceiling Standoff
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-18/debt-ceiling-standoffs-threaten-an-already-wobbly-dollar
Saleha Mohsin and Enda Curran note:
America’s sway over the world economy is being eroded by self-inflicted policy wounds, with a dangerous standoff over the debt ceiling putting renewed scrutiny on the dollar’s preeminent status in global trade and finance.
A behind-the-curve Federal Reserve struggling to corral inflation, a string of bank failures and now a political deadlock over the government’s ability to borrow are chipping away at US authority. 

It is Dangerous to Underestimate China's Capabilities

China’s advanced DF-27 hypersonic missile which can strike parts of US has been in service for several years, source says
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3221198/chinas-advanced-df-27-hypersonic-missile-which-can-strike-parts-us-has-been-service-several-years
  • PLA wanted to keep the weapon, which can reach all major US Asia-Pacific bases, under wraps after it unveiled its predecessor in 2019, according to the source
  • The intermediate-range ballistic missile is capable of striking Hawaii, and the Pentagon says there is a ‘high probability’ it can penetrate its defences

Friday, May 19, 2023

Chinese Travelers and Global Tourism

World’s Biggest Tourism Spenders Aren’t Traveling—and May Not for Years
https://www.wsj.com/articles/worlds-biggest-tourism-spenders-arent-travelingand-may-not-for-years-3195de39
Limited flights and other bottlenecks are keeping many Chinese from venturing abroad, depriving the world of needed spending 

Who Will Succeed Xi Jinping?

Xi Jinping’s Succession Problem—and China’s
https://www.wsj.com/articles/xis-jinpings-succession-problemand-chinas-21a8eb9c
As he turns 70, the Chinese leader has cleared the field of all potential rivals, with no heir in sight—a situation that could destabilize China and rock the foundations of the global order.

Job Market Facing Class of 2023

Congrats, College Grad. Good Luck Finding That Dream Job
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-19/can-i-get-a-job-college-grads-struggle-to-get-hired-in-2023
The Class of ‘23 is graduating into a shaky economy, with some at Ivy League schools and elsewhere struggling to find employment. 

Inflation During the US Civil War

The Money War: Democracy, taxes and inflation in the U.S. Civil War
Ariel Ron & Sofia Valeonti, Cambridge Journal of Economics, March 2023, Pages 263-288 
Abstract:
Both sides in the U.S. Civil War financed military spending by issuing new fiat currencies. The Union 'greenback' underwent moderate inflation (by wartime standards), but the Confederate 'greyback' suffered hyperinflation. Existing explanations for these price movements typically treat only one of the two cases and adopt either a quantity theory or rational expectations approach. We compare Union and Confederate policies directly and highlight the importance of taxation for assuring the value of inconvertible money. Combining monetary and fiscal history literatures, we find that tax policies were determined by long-term development of democratic governing institutions. Higher levels of democracy in the North, as compared to the slaveholding South, meant greater tax policy legitimacy and administrative competence. The Union drew on this legacy to back its money effectively, while the Confederacy failed to do so. We contribute to credit theories of money by drawing attention to the political determinants of effective fiscal policy. 

Future of Crypto



Lessons from the Crypto Bubble Burst
Crypto: New. Fraud: Old.

The AI Bubble is Well Underway

AI boom could expose investors' natural stupidity
https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/ai-boom-could-expose-investors-natural-stupidity-2023-05-19/
 
BofA Strategist Says Sell US Stocks as AI Seen Forming a Bubble
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-19/bofa-s-hartnett-says-sell-us-stocks-as-ai-seen-forming-a-bubble
Related: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bofa-strategist-says-sell-us-073803555.html
 
Colleges Race to Hire and Build Amid AI ‘Gold Rush’
https://www.insidehighered.com/news/tech-innovation/artificial-intelligence/2023/05/19/colleges-race-hire-and-build-amid-ai-gold
Cue the bulldozers to make room for hordes of new AI faculty. But computer scientists willing to teach are in short supply, and innovation’s trajectory is rarely predictable.