Attention Economy


Tuesday, May 30, 2023

Assessing Recession Risks

Did we just dodge a recession? By Vivekanand Jayakumar, The Hill - 05/30/23
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4024671-did-we-just-dodge-a-recession/
Toward the end of 2022, there was an unusually strong consensus that the U.S. economy was headed for a recession in 2023. Yet, so far this year, American consumers have remained resilient, the labor market has remained tight and the housing market has been reinvigorated by an uptick in construction and sale of newly-built homes. Even the stock market appears to have regained some swagger as analysts raise their year-end targets for major indices. 
Why did 10 consecutive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, which cumulatively pushed interest rates up by 500-basis points, fail to generate a noticeable slowdown in U.S. economic activity?  

Full list of my opinion pieces:

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Global Economy: Trio of critical signs point to global economic slowdown
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trio-of-critical-signs-point-to-global-economic-slowdown
Downturn in copper prices, weak shipping rates and historic yield inversion raise red flags