Can the English Major be Saved?

The End of the English Major
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/03/06/the-end-of-the-english-major
Enrollment in the humanities is in free fall at colleges around the country. What happened? 

The Strange Views of Jeffrey Sachs

Jeffrey Sachs’s Great-Power Politics
https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/jeffrey-sachss-great-power-politics 

The Mask Mandate Debate

Here’s Why the Science Is Clear That Masks Work
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/10/opinion/masks-work-cochrane-study.html

Why the Lab-Leak and Mask Debates Are Such a Disaster
https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2023/03/covid-lab-leak-mask-mandates-science-media-information/673263/
We’re still pretending to know things about COVID that we don’t.

Don’t believe those who claim science proves masks don’t work
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/27/dont-believe-those-who-claim-science-proves-masks-dont-work 

The Mask Mandates Did Nothing. Will Any Lessons Be Learned?
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/21/opinion/do-mask-mandates-work.html 

America Needs More Electricians

America Is Trying to Electrify. There Aren’t Enough Electricians
https://www.wsj.com/articles/america-is-trying-to-electrify-there-arent-enough-electricians-4260d05b 

Related:

College is Not the Only Path to Career Success
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2023/02/college-is-not-only-path-to-career.html

Renminbi Internationalization

Russia Turns to China’s Yuan in Effort to Ditch the Dollar
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-turns-to-chinas-yuan-in-effort-to-ditch-the-dollar-a8111457
Moscow has jettisoned longstanding concerns about giving China too much leverage over its economy 

Russian companies shift to yuan as flight from dollar accelerates
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Currencies/Russian-companies-shift-to-yuan-as-flight-from-dollar-accelerates
 
China-Russia gas deal in yuan, roubles underscores efforts to reduce US dollar hegemony
https://www.scmp.com/economy/article/3191686/china-russia-gas-deal-yuan-roubles-underscores-efforts-reduce-us-dollar 

The weaponization of finance threatens the future of the dollar standard by Vivekanand Jayakumar| The Hill
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/596116-the-weaponization-of-finance-may-threaten-the-future-of-the-dollar-standard

The Decline in ERP

Buying stocks is just not worth the risk today, these analysts say. They have a better way for you to get returns as high as 5%.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buying-stocks-is-just-not-worth-the-risk-today-these-analysts-say-they-have-a-better-way-for-you-to-get-returns-as-high-as-5-2758e4f1
As inflation and expectations of a more difficult economic environment weigh on expectations for corporate profits, the nearly guaranteed returns offered by Treasurys has soared. This means the equity risk premium is once again finding use as a gauge of relative value for stocks, since it can offer helpful insights about what investors stand to gain over the short term by taking the additional risk that comes with buying stocks, or investing in stock funds. 

Markets History 101: It’s Time to Buy Bonds

https://www.wsj.com/articles/markets-history-101-its-time-to-buy-bonds-5cfe84cc

Digital Natives Suck at Using Basic Tech

‘Scanners are complicated’: why Gen Z faces workplace ‘tech shame’
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/feb/27/gen-z-tech-shame-office-technology-printers
They may be digital natives, but young workers were raised on user-friendly apps – and office devices are far less intuitive 

Premature Hype Surrounding AI and ChatGPT

As ChatGPT hype soars, FTC warns Silicon Valley not to oversell its AI
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/02/28/chatgpt-hype-soars-ftc-warns-silicon-valley-not-oversell-its-ai/

We’re watching one of the most spectacular technology implosions of all time
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/02/27/watching-one-spectacular-technology-implosions-time/
In just a few weeks, the artificial intelligence software ChatGPT made by OpenAI has had a sensational media impact. Given a short prompt, it creates plausible sounding text: letters, essays, computer code, and even poems that rhyme.
Seeking to put one over on arch rival Google, Microsoft rushed to add some ChatGPT smarts to its Bing web search engine. Microsoft’s CEO Satya Nadella even indulged in some very public goading: “I want people to know that we made [Google] dance, and I think that'll be a great day,” he said. Nadella’s taunt may be premature.
Errors in Google rushed-to-market AI search chatbot saw the market wipe $100 billion from the value of its parent company Alphabet. But those errors seem trivial compared to the performance of Microsoft’s Bing’s AI Chat over the past fortnight. We’re watching one of the most spectacular technology implosions of all time. 

One of the newest and strangest jobs in the tech world: Prompt engineer
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/02/25/prompt-engineers-techs-next-big-job/ 

'Prompt engineers’ are being hired for their skill in getting AI systems to produce exactly what they want. And they make pretty good money.

Higher Rates and the US Economy

Higher Interest Rates Slam Stocks and Profits But Spare Workers
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-27/high-interest-rates-hit-stock-market-but-spare-worker-wages
It’s common to hear analysts say that the stock market is not the economy. For decades that meant equities were soaring on the heels of low-interest-rate policies, while many lower-wage workers were being left behind. A growing share of corporate profits went to investors and higher-level executives, and rank-and-file employees got a smaller piece of the pie.
Now, as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to the highest levels in 40 years, that equation is changing. 

What Layoffs? Many Employers Are Eager to Hang On to Workers.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/26/business/economy/staffing-layoffs.html
Despite interest rate increases meant to cool the labor market, companies outside the tech industry worry about having too few workers, not too many.

Indian Americans and US Politics

Indian Americans Rapidly Climbing Political Ranks
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/27/us/politics/indian-american-politicians.html
The relative wealth of Indian immigrants and high education levels have propelled a political ascent for the second and third generations. 

Why I’m Running for President by Vivek Ramaswamy
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-im-running-for-president-c4a8ea7
America has lost sight of the ideals that made it great—freedom and merit foremost among them.

Fallout from the Bursting of the FinTech Bubble

After Multibillion-Dollar Fintech Binge, Wall Street Has a Writedown Hangover
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-23/wall-street-s-fintech-binge-turns-into-a-writedown-hangover
Blue-chip firms spent big on companies promising new ways to make payments or manage money. Now they understand they overpaid. 

Russia's Decision to Invade Ukraine

For years, Putin didn’t invade Ukraine. What made him finally snap in 2022?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/24/vladimir-putin-invade-ukraine-2022-russia
Anatol Lieven notes:
The reason for Putin’s past restraint lies in what was a core part of Russian strategy dating back to the 1990s: trying to wedge more distance between Europe and the United States, and ultimately to create a new security order in Europe with Russia as a full partner and respected power. It was always clear that a full-scale invasion of Ukraine would destroy any hope of rapprochement with the western Europeans, driving them for the foreseeable future into the arms of the US. Simultaneously, such a move would leave Russia diplomatically isolated and dangerously dependent on China. 

I Teach International Relations. I Think We’re Making a Mistake in Ukraine.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/03/russia-ukraine-war-pundits-history-international-relations/673293/

Thomas Meaney notes:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/02/opinion/ukraine-aid-united-states-nato.html
The trouble is that Ukraine has only one surefire way of accomplishing this feat in the near term: direct NATO involvement in the war. Only the full, Desert Storm style of deployment of NATO and U.S. troops and weaponry could bring about a comprehensive Ukrainian victory in a short period of time. (Never mind that such a deployment would most likely shorten the odds of one of the grimmer prospects of the war: The more Russia loses, the more it is likely to resort to nuclear weapons.) 

Markets Get a Dose of Reality

The 2023 stock market rally looks wobbly. What’s next as investors prepare for longer inflation fight.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-2023-stock-market-rally-looks-wobbly-whats-next-as-investors-come-to-grips-with-a-further-rise-in-interest-rates-bdb3e1a3

Record-breaking global bond rally crumbles as fresh inflation fears grip investors
https://www.ft.com/content/b287997b-a048-426c-bab3-9a6a97486c17
 
Are markets right in expecting an ‘immaculate disinflation’? BY VIVEKANAND JAYAKUMAR - 02/06/23
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3844349-are-markets-right-in-expecting-an-immaculate-disinflation/    
All in all, it appears that both the stock and the bond markets may be getting ahead of themselves by assuming that the worst is over. Far too much is now riding on expectations for an early Fed pivot. Some analysts have also argued that stock investors may be ignoring negative operating leverage and a possible squeeze on profit margins.
Given the ongoing uncertainty about the future pace of disinflation, and potential risks involving premature easing of financial conditions and stickiness in services inflation, it may be in the interest of market participants to avoid excessive exuberance.
It is too early to claim victory in the inflation battle or even to rule out a resurgence in underlying inflationary pressures — that was one of the key takeaways from the experience of the 1970s.  

Healthcare Sector Pay - CEOs versus Staff

The pay gap between hospital CEOs and nurses is expanding even faster than we thought
https://www.vox.com/policy/2023/2/24/23610762/hospital-ceo-nurses-salary-study-north-carolina
Some hospital CEOs quadrupled their salaries in a few years while nurses’ pay largely stayed stagnant. 

Economic Development and Average Height of Humans

How South Koreans got so much taller
https://www.vox.com/videos/2023/2/23/23611947/world-south-koreans-people-getting-taller
Humans have gotten a lot taller in the past 100 years — and South Korea shows us why. 

Lessons from Past Wars

A Stranger in Your Own City by Ghaith Abdul-Ahad

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/21/baghdad-memories-what-the-first-few-months-of-the-us-occupation-felt-like-to-an-iraqi

Inside Iraq’s Two Decades of War
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/feb/25/a-stranger-in-your-own-city-by-ghaith-abdul-ahad-review-inside-iraqs-two-decades-of-war
Next month marks the 20th anniversary of George W Bush and Tony Blair’s criminally reckless invasion. As Abdul-Ahad notes, it was misconceived from the outset: “No amount of planning could have turned an illegal occupation into a liberation.” Though Saddam’s regime had “fossilised social, artistic and economic development” in Iraq, the bloodbath that followed its toppling has “permanently crippled democracy in the Middle East”. Moreover, Abdul-Ahad believes the very idea of Iraqi nationhood – embodied in the Arabic word watan – has been eroded.

 
What Ukraine Needs to Learn from Afghanistan by Jeffrey Sachs
https://www.jeffsachs.org/newspaper-articles/ye43cpa63fkaek6pddan9ggzrnefe4
Related:
https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2023/01/18/jeffrey-sachs-on-why-neutral-countries-should-mediate-between-russia-and-ukraine 

Collateral Damage
https://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/29/books/review/the-blood-telegram-by-gary-j-bass.html

Nation Building through Foreign Intervention by MELISSA DELL AND PABLO QUERUBIN
https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/dell/files/nationbuilding.pdf
Abstract
This study uses discontinuities in U.S. strategies employed during the Vietnam War to estimate their causal impacts. It identifies the effects of bombing by exploiting rounding thresholds in an algorithm used to target air strikes. Bombing increased the military and political activities of the communist insurgency, weakened local governance, and reduced noncommunist civic engagement. The study also exploits a spatial discontinuity across neighboring military regions that pursued different counterinsurgency strategies. A strategy emphasizing overwhelming firepower plausibly increased insurgent attacks and worsened attitudes toward the U.S. and South Vietnamese government, relative to a more hearts-and-minds oriented approach.

 

Did the Fed Open the Pandora’s Box?

How the Fed Opened Pandora’s Box
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/25/business/economy/federal-reserve-powe.html
Jerome H. Powell’s no-holds-barred response to the pandemic was made possible by history. It raises questions about the future. 

Related:

Have misguided policies led to recent asset bubbles and boom-bust cycles? BY VIVEKANAND JAYAKUMAR, The Hill - 02/16/21
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/538921-have-misguided-policies-led-to-recent-asset-bubbles-and-boom-bust-cycles/

Tech Guinea Pigs

With AI, We Are All Once Again Tech Companies’ Guinea Pigs
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chat-gpt-open-ai-we-are-tech-guinea-pigs-647d827b
Even the people behind new artificial intelligence systems say their buzzy products are ‘somewhat broken.’ They’re relying on us to fix them. 

Economics/Finance and Law/Politics

$1 trillion in the shade – the annual profits multinational corporations shift to tax havens continues to climb and climb
https://theconversation.com/1-trillion-in-the-shade-the-annual-profits-multinational-corporations-shift-to-tax-havens-continues-to-climb-and-climb-200034
 
The E.S.G. Fight Has Come to This: Bankers Suing Lawyers
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/24/your-money/anti-esg-investing-kentucky.html
 
Permission-Slip Culture Is Hurting America
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/02/state-licensing-requirements-cosmetologists-landscape-architecture/673196/ 

Consequences of America's Broken Immigration System

Alone and Exploited, Migrant Children Work Brutal Jobs Across the U.S.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/25/us/unaccompanied-migrant-child-workers-exploitation.html
Arriving in record numbers, they’re ending up in dangerous jobs that violate child labor laws — including in factories that make some of the country’s best-known products.
 
High-skilled visa holders at risk of deportation amid tech layoffs
https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2023/02/24/temporary-visa-h1b-tech-layoffs/ 

Base Effects and Macro Data

How ‘Base Effects’ Trip Up Our Understanding of the Economy
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-base-effects-trip-up-our-understanding-of-the-economy-66fde398
Sometimes, the most widely cited inflation figures tell us more about the past than the present 

Related:

January’s Boomlet Might Stem from December Doldrums
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/januarys-boomlet-might-stem-from-december-doldrums/2023/02/24/04b7a338-b45b-11ed-94a0-512954d75716_story.html

Banks versus ChatGPT

Wall Street’s ChatGPT Nightmare Is Over Before It Starts as Banks Crack Down
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-24/wall-street-s-chatgpt-nightmare-scenario-gets-a-reality-check
 
Banks Are Right to Clamp Down on Office ChatGPT
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-02-24/bofa-jpmorgan-goldman-are-right-to-clamp-down-on-office-chatgpt

Reconsidering Jimmy Carter's Legacy

The Wisdom and Prophecy of Jimmy Carter’s ‘Malaise’ Speech
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/23/opinion/jimmy-carter-malaise-speech.html
 
Crisis of Confidence - Jimmy Carter delivered this televised speech on July 15, 1979
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/carter-crisis/
The threat is nearly invisible in ordinary ways. It is a crisis of confidence. It is a crisis that strikes at the very heart and soul and spirit of our national will. We can see this crisis in the growing doubt about the meaning of our own lives and in the loss of a unity of purpose for our nation.
The erosion of our confidence in the future is threatening to destroy the social and the political fabric of America…
In a nation that was proud of hard work, strong families, close-knit communities, and our faith in God, too many of us now tend to worship self-indulgence and consumption. Human identity is no longer defined by what one does, but by what one owns.
 
Related:
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/repost-much-of-what-youve-heard-about
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/20/opinion/kai-bird-jimmy-carter-life.html 

Technical Progress and Long-Term Economic Growth

Brad DeLong on Intellectual and Technical Progress 
https://conversationswithtyler.com/episodes/brad-delong/
Why 1870-2010 were such extraordinary years.

Boom and Bust: Why It’s Hard to Predict Economic Growth
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/boom-and-bust 

The Economist Who Knows the Miracle Is Over
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/09/brad-delong-economist-slouching-towards-utopia-book/671337/ 

The Long 20th Century Comes to a Shuddering End
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/02/history-utopia-economics-climate/

New World Bank Chief

U.S. Picks Ajay Banga to Lead World Bank
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/23/business/world-bank-president-nomination.html 

Corporate Financing - The German Way

How Quirky German Debt Is Winning Followers Abroad
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/how-quirky-german-debt-is-winning-followers-abroad/2023/02/22/8294476a-b27c-11ed-94a0-512954d75716_story.html 

Chip Building in America

Inside Taiwanese Chip Giant, a U.S. Expansion Stokes Tensions
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/22/technology/tsmc-arizona-factory-tensions.html
Some TSMC engineers said they were concerned about how the Arizona factory would blend American and Taiwanese employees. In Taiwan, engineers work long hours and weekend shifts, joking that they “sell liver” to work for the chip manufacturer, they said. Such sacrifices may be less appealing to employees in the United States, they said.
Wayne Chiu, an engineer who left TSMC last year, said he had thought about joining the company’s overseas expansion drive but lost interest after realizing he would likely have to pick up the slack for U.S. hires.
“The most difficult thing about wafer manufacturing is not technology,” he said. “The most difficult thing is personnel management. Americans are the worst at this, because Americans are the most difficult to manage.” 

Related:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/22/technology/arizona-chips-act-semiconductor.html

Cryptos - Boosters/Speculators versus Regulators

Thoughts on the Crypto Ecosystem by Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/waller20230210a.pdf
 
Bitcoin just broke $25,000, and it could be due to ordinals. Here’s everything you need to know about them
https://fortune.com/crypto/2023/02/17/ordinals-bitcoin-25k-satoshi-explanation/
Related:
https://sports.yahoo.com/bitcoin-just-broke-25-000-110000969.html
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-19/what-are-ordinals-and-can-donald-trump-nfts-boost-bitcoin-btc-blockchain

Fired by AI

AI is starting to pick who gets laid off
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/02/20/layoff-algorithms/ 

Future of Big Tech

Why Big Tech should break itself apart
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/02/20/big-tech-meta-google-amazon/
Related:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/google-case-heads-to-supreme-court-with-powerful-internet-shield-law-at-stake-e548e241 

US Housing Market - A Mixed Bag

Here are the US cities where home prices are actually falling
https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/19/homes/housing-prices-2022-fourth-quarter/index.html 

Overall, U.S. home prices rose on a year-over-year basis
https://www.wsj.com/articles/steepest-home-price-declines-in-fourth-quarter-were-in-the-west-11675962886
WSJ:
Prices are holding above year-ago levels in most markets because the inventory of homes for sale remains low. Existing homeowners with low mortgage rates are reluctant to list their homes for sale because they don’t want to buy a new home at a higher mortgage rate, real-estate agents say.
Median prices rose by more than 10% from a year earlier in 18% of the 186 metro areas, a deceleration from the third quarter when 46% of metro areas reported double-digit-percentage growth, NAR said.
Housing demand is holding up better in metro areas with strong job markets, economists say.
In the fourth quarter, the typical monthly mortgage payment for a single-family home rose to $1,969, a 58% increase from $1,249 a year earlier, NAR said. NAR’s measure of housing affordability fell in October to its lowest level since September 1985.
Florida markets remained hot. Prices rose 19.5% in the North Port, Fla., metro area, and 17.2% in Naples, Fla., the second- and third-highest year-over-year gains of the 186 metro areas. 

When It’s Easy to Be a Landlord, No One Wants to Sell
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/11/business/economy/real-estate-market-landlords.html

Is This Time Different?

It’s a Richcession, Not a Recession. Here’s Your Investing Playbook.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/its-a-richcession-not-a-recession-heres-your-investing-playbook-ddffb60
Most economic downturns hit lower-income Americans hardest, but this time is different. The stock market’s winners and losers will be different too. 

American Democracy - Tragically Flawed?

Our system doesn’t act even when we agree. That’s killing us.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/02/19/gun-laws-gridlock-majority-opinion-minority-veto-points/ 

Valuation of Adani Enterprises

Adani Isn’t India, But Its Troubles Mirror the Nation’s Woes
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/adani-isntindia-butitstroubles-mirror-the-nationswoes/2023/02/21/3d246cc0-b225-11ed-94a0-512954d75716_story.html

NYU Prof Aswath Damodaran’s Addresses Questions on Hindenburg Report & His Valuation of Adani Shares

Fraud claims targeting Gautam Adani provoke nationalist backlash in India
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/12/gautam-adani-hindenburg-india-nationalism/

Why Adani’s $100 Billion Loss Hasn’t Tanked India’s Markets
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/11/business/india-adani-market.html
The steadfastness of India’s economy attests to the size and seeming strength of the country’s broader business landscape.

‘Buy American’ - Politics versus Reality

Biden’s ‘Buy America’ bid runs into the manufacturing woes it aims to fix
https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2023/02/18/biden-buy-america-roads-bridges/
The $1 trillion infrastructure legislation that President Biden signed in 2021 insists that U.S. materials be used. But the United States no longer makes many of the items needed to modernize roads, bridges and ports. 

The Risks Associated with ‘Buy American’ Provisions
https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2023/02/buy-american-joe-biden-free-trade-industrial-policy-supply-chain/672977/ 

Structural Changes in the Real Estate Space

By Adding Apartments, Malls Seek to Bring Shopping Closer to Home
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/16/business/shopping-malls-residences.html
Facing an existential crisis over empty space, owners are trying to fill malls with residences, building on the live-work-play model sought by young adults.
 
What Would It Take to Turn More Offices into Housing?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/27/business/what-would-it-take-to-turn-more-offices-into-housing.html 

AI in the Workplace

AI in the Workplace Is Already Here. The First Battleground? Call Centers.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ai-chatgpt-chatbot-workplace-call-centers-5cd2142a 

Climate Change and Inflation

How Climate Change Is Making Tampons (and Lots of Other Stuff) More Expensive
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/18/climate/climate-change-cotton-tampons.html
Cotton farmers in Texas suffered record losses amid heat and drought last year, new data shows. It’s an example of how global warming is a “secret driver of inflation.” 

Addicted to Conflict and Large-Scale Military Spending

Can America Thrive Without War?
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/18/opinion/cold-war-china-ukraine.html
Mark Hannah notes:
The 1990s provide a vivid illustration of how prosperity and political compromise can flourish when we shed a false sense of national insecurity and the militant global posture which often accompanies it. American participation in major conflicts was limited, and the Clinton administration’s primary foreign policy goal was to promote trade.
Defense contractors might argue military spending creates commercial activity and jobs (conveniently distributed across key congressional districts). After decades of overly militarized foreign policy, Americans should be wary of using the defense budget to contribute to economic growth.
 
Related:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/17/business/active-shooter-industry-us.html 

New Age/Fusion Music

Ricky Kej: The Indian Grammy winner finding new listeners at home
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-64593047
 
Himalayas | Stewart Copeland | Ricky Kej | Divine Tides
https://youtu.be/wA1pf86wZ_A
Art Of Devotion | Stewart Copeland | Ricky Kej | Divine Tides
https://youtu.be/kgOQwDHmcnc
Mother Earth | Stewart Copeland | Ricky Kej | Divine Tides
https://youtu.be/QR56NkP3yaU 

Neoliberalism, Democracy, and Economics

Is the Marriage Between Democracy and Capitalism on the Rocks?
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/15/books/review/books-democracy-capitalism.html
 
US historian Gary Gerstle explains how globalization helped entrench neoliberalism while also bringing about its demise
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/Series/Analytical-Series/cafe-econ-a-new-political-order-emerges
 
Rescuing Economics from Neoliberalism
https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/dani-rodrik-rescuing-economics-neoliberalism/
Related:
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/nov/14/the-fatal-flaw-of-neoliberalism-its-bad-economics
Harvard’s Dani Rodrik:
The roots of such behavior lie deep in the culture of the economics profession. But one important motive is the zeal to display the profession’s crown jewels – market efficiency, the invisible hand, comparative advantage – in untarnished form, and to shield them from attack by self-interested barbarians, namely the protectionists. Unfortunately, these economists typically ignore the barbarians on the other side of the issue – financiers and multinational corporations whose motives are no purer and who are all too ready to hijack these ideas for their own benefit.
As a result, economists’ contributions to public debate are often biased in one direction, in favor of more trade, more finance and less government. That is why economists have developed a reputation as cheerleaders for neoliberalism, even if mainstream economics is very far from a paean to laissez-faire. The economists who let their enthusiasm for free markets run wild are in fact not being true to their own discipline. 

Politics and Education

To Increase Equity, School Districts Eliminate Honors Classes
https://www.wsj.com/articles/to-increase-equity-school-districts-eliminate-honors-classes-d5985dee
 
America Should Be in the Middle of a Schools Revolution
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/16/opinion/america-schools-revolution.html
 
The Right Don’t Need No Education
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/16/opinion/education-desantis.html 

Reconsidering 'Golden Visa' Policies

It’s Getting Harder to Obtain a ‘Golden Visa’ in Europe
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-17/best-golden-visa-in-europe-portugal-ireland-cut-foreign-investment-programs
Portugal is joining other countries in scrapping its residency-by-investment program, which has been a draw for wealthy foreigners. 

Management Consultancy - A Big Con?

The Big Con by Mariana Mazzucato and Rosie Collington review – how consultancy firms cash in
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/feb/16/the-big-con-by-mariana-mazzucato-and-rosie-collington-review-how-consultancy-firms-cash-in
 
In The Big Con Mariana Mazzucato and Rosie Collington reveal how management consultants promise to fix governments but end up enfeebling them
https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/books/book-of-the-day/2023/02/consultancy-bleeds-britain-dry-book-review-covid-19 

The Return of IMF Conditionalities – The Case of Egypt

After months of punishing inflation and a plummeting currency, Egyptians are growing louder about the crisis. In exchange for a bailout, the I.M.F. is imposing stern conditions on the government.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/23/world/middleeast/egypt-economy.html
Egypt had long used dollars to prop up its currency, the pound, to maintain Egyptians’ ability to buy imported goods. The I.M.F. has forced it to let the pound’s value slide and fluctuate without interference.
In a demand that strikes at the heart of Egypt’s power structure, the I.M.F. is also requiring Egypt to sell off some state-owned companies to raise money and to strip military-owned companies of tax breaks and other privileges, allowing private businesses to compete. 

Related:

When the IMF comes to town: why they visit and what to watch out for
https://theconversation.com/when-the-imf-comes-to-town-why-they-visit-and-what-to-watch-out-for-188302

Silicon Valley and Tech Bubbles

The Silicon Valley Loop How the dot-com crash created Palo Alto’s clueless investor class.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/02/the-silicon-valley-loop-malcolm-harriss-palo-alto.html 

Border Disputes

Trouble at the Roof of the World
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/trouble-roof-world
Why America Can’t Afford to Ignore India and China’s Border Dispute 

Mystery Coders and Bitcoin's Future

Bitcoin’s Future Depends on a Handful of Mysterious Coders
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoin-core-maintainers-crypto-7b93804 

Knee-Jerk Macro Analysis

WSJ Reporting on US Consumers
Apparently, US consumers completely changed their minds in just three weeks. 
 
U.S. Households Lifting Economy After Being Stung by Climbing Prices Last Year - Feb. 16, 2023
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-households-lifting-economy-after-being-stung-by-climbing-prices-last-year-228f0bc
 
The U.S. Consumer Is Starting to Freak Out - Jan. 30, 2023
https://www.wsj.com/articles/consumer-spending-inflation-economy-11675093472 

Impostor Syndrome

Why Everyone Feels Like They’re Faking It
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/02/13/the-dubious-rise-of-impostor-syndrome
The concept of Impostor Syndrome has become ubiquitous. Critics, and even the idea’s originators, question its value. 

Climate Change and Property Values - YIKES!!!

Where U.S. house prices may be most overvalued as climate change worsens
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/02/16/flood-risk-housing-market-property-value/
While individual homeowners stand to collectively lose billions as hurricanes and heavy rains intensify flooding, local governments that rely on property taxes also could suffer crippling decreases in revenue 

Social Media's Impact on Teenagers

American Teens Are Really Miserable. Why?
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/18/opinion/depression-teen-social.html
Related:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/02/15/teen-girls-mental-health-suicide/ 

The Advantage of Switching Jobs

Half of US Job Switchers Beat Inflation with Wage Bump in 2022
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-15/half-of-us-job-switchers-beat-inflation-with-wage-bump-in-2022
Alexandre Tanzi:
“The tight US labor market during the last couple of years benefited the bold.
Almost half of the workers who changed jobs were rewarded with a pay raise that exceeded the rate of inflation, meaning that their real hourly wage was going up” 

Classifying China's Economy

Emerging or developed market? China’s economic uniqueness defies labels
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3209808/emerging-or-developed-market-chinas-economic-uniqueness-defies-labels 

Geography, Colonialism, Institutions, and Economic Development

The Enduring Malformation of West Africa
https://republic.com.ng/february-march-2023/the-malformation-of-west-africa/
Why Economics Alone Cannot Explain West Africa’s Slow Development

Jamaica is doing OK
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/jamaica-is-doing-ok
Jamaica Is Not Doing Ok
https://rasheedgriffith.substack.com/p/jamaica-is-not-doing-ok

Explaining the Mixed Legacies of Colonial Legislative Institutions
https://broadstreet.blog/2021/10/08/explaining-the-mixed-legacies-of-colonial-legislative-institutions/
Ken Ochieng' Opalo (Assistant Professor at Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service) notes:
Institutional persistence is an inherent assumption in the “European colonial origins” literature. Yet, as demonstrated by the historical institutionalism literature, coherent accounts of persistence must also be able to account for change. Furthermore, the “domestication” of adopted European institutions was significantly shaped by local political and social conditions. Colonized populations had agency in shaping the realized impacts of institutions. In colonies that did not see significant European settlement, administration was characterized by a “thin White line” of officials whose diurnal conduct was arbitrary, autocratic, and far removed from stylized accounts of Western institutional order. Finally, the mere establishment of colonial institutions did not mark the end of politics. Different political actors in the colonies saw their powers wax and wane, in ways that shaped institutional development.
Assumptions of linear persistence of colonial institutions elides important mechanisms driving institutional persistence and change. This calls for detailed historical institutionalist accounts to uncover the sources of colonial institutional persistence and change. What specific institutions were created under colonialism and what factors shaped institutional design? What logics drove their internal operations? How did political realities in the colonies shape the persistence and/or change of specific institutional processes and outcomes? 

Background Readings:
Understanding Institutions by Daron Acemoglu
https://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/cp161.pdf
Institutions Matter, but Not for Everything by Jeffrey D. Sachs
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2003/06/pdf/sachs.pdf

The Weird and Unpredictable Economy

Don’t believe what anyone says about the economy. Including me.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/02/14/inflation-economy-data-prices-jobs/ 

The Economy Is Still Very, Very Weird
https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2023/02/economics-statistics-up-down-gas-used-cars-housing-tech/672935/

Here’s Why the Economy Seems Weird
https://www.wsj.com/articles/heres-why-the-economy-seems-weird-345bc327

The Federal Debt Problem

Congressional Kabuki aside, federal debt is a real problem
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/02/15/congress-defuse-debt-bomb/ 

U.S. Government Borrowing Costs Rise as Debt Ceiling Fuels Partisan Clash
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-government-borrowing-costs-rise-as-debt-ceiling-fuels-partisan-clash-a4b8cbe2
 
US debt default could trigger dollar’s collapse – and severely erode America’s political and economic might
https://theconversation.com/us-debt-default-could-trigger-dollars-collapse-and-severely-erode-americas-political-and-economic-might-198395 

MY TAKE:

The debate should be about the quality – not the size – of government by VIVEKANAND JAYAKUMAR, August 2020
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/513007-the-debate-should-be-about-the-quality-not-size-of-government/
The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many people around the world to reevaluate state capacity in their own country and contrast it with that of other peer countries. For far too long, the debate involving government’s role in society has been dominated by economists (especially those sympathetic to the small-government movement) who created the impression that the raw size of the government (measured, for instance, by government consumption’s share of GDP) was of critical importance. Recent developments and insights from political science and other related disciplines suggest that we should have placed greater emphasis on the factors that influence the quality of the government instead of being distracted by a never-ending and ideologically-driven battle over the superficial size of the government.

Are EVs Environmentally Friendly?

Just How Good for the Planet Is That Big Electric Pickup Truck?
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/02/17/climate/electric-vehicle-emissions-truck-suv.html

How lithium gets from the earth into your electric car
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2023/how-is-lithium-mined/ 

The hidden environmental costs of transitioning to electric vehicles
https://www.npr.org/2023/01/29/1152387283/the-hidden-environmental-costs-of-the-transitioning-to-electric-vehicles

Humanitarian Tragedy

Earthquake victims in rebel-held area of Syria left without aid, rescue operations

 

UK - Dysfunctional Politics

The Tory party is dying on the cross of hard Brexit
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/02/14/tory-party-dying-cross-hard-brexit/
The purists have become part of the very same British disease they complain of in others
 
As Sunak Tries to Move Ahead, He’s Haunted by Prime Ministers Past
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/07/world/europe/britain-sunak-cabinet-boris-johnson.html 

The New Normal in the Auto Market

New Cars Are Only for the Rich Now as Automakers Rake in Profits
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-02-14/new-car-prices-are-so-high-only-rich-americans-can-afford-them
With pandemic-era chip shortages fading, manufacturers are keeping inventories low — and prices high. The shift to EVs will make things worse. 

College is Not the Only Path to Career Success

High-paying jobs that don't need a college degree? Thousands of them sit empty
https://www.npr.org/2023/02/14/1155405249/high-paying-jobs-that-dont-need-a-college-degree-thousands-of-them-are-sitting-e
"Like most other American high school students, Garret Morgan had it drummed into him constantly: Go to college. Get a bachelor's degree.
"All through my life it was, 'If you don't go to college you're going to end up on the streets,' " Morgan said back in 2018. "Everybody's so gung-ho about going to college."
So he tried it for a while. Then he quit and started training as an ironworker, which is what he was doing on a weekday morning in a nondescript high-ceilinged building with a concrete floor in an industrial park near the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport.
Morgan and several other men and women were dressed in work boots and hard hats, clipped to safety harnesses with heavy wrenches hanging from their belts. They were being timed as they wrestled 600-pound I-beams into place.
Back then, the demand for ironworkers was rising – and it still is: the sector is growing 4% annually, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Ironworkers earn, on average, $27.48 per hour, or $57,160 per year. Morgan was already working on a job site when he wasn't at the Pacific Northwest Ironworkers shop. At 20, he was earning $28.36 an hour, plus benefits".

Five charts document rise in college going and degrees but there could be trouble ahead
https://hechingerreport.org/proof-points-new-higher-ed-data-by-race-and-ethnicity/

My take: Is the US higher education bubble about to burst?
https://thehill.com/opinion/education/590971-will-the-us-higher-education-bubble-finally-burst  

Inflation is Still Running Hot

Inflation Cooled Just Slightly, With Worrying Details
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/14/business/economy/january-cpi-inflation-report.html

Inflation eases again, but bringing prices further down will take work
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/02/14/inflation-easing-cpi-january/
"The report showed January prices rose 0.5 percent in comparison with the previous month, a bump from the 0.1 percent rise in the December report, and a less-than-encouraging sign for economists and policymakers who argue that progress is best measured month by month…
A top concern is that the remaining sources of inflation — many of which are tied to the hot labor market and rising wages — will be difficult to tame. Last week, survey results from the University of Michigan also showed that consumers’ inflation expectations over the coming year increased, even if they’re feeling better about the economy as a whole".

US Inflation Stays Elevated, Adding Pressure for More Fed Hikes
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-14/us-inflation-stays-elevated-adding-pressure-for-more-fed-hikes
Bond Market Keeps Inflation Expectations Elevated After CPI Data
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-14/bond-market-keeps-inflation-expectations-elevated-after-cpi-data

As costs rise, many older Americans have changed the way they shop and eat out. For some, it could affect their health or leave them feeling isolated.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/14/business/inflation-food-prices-seniors.html 

From BLS:

Are markets right in expecting an ‘immaculate disinflation’? BY VIVEKANAND JAYAKUMAR - 02/06/23

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3844349-are-markets-right-in-expecting-an-immaculate-disinflation/    

All in all, it appears that both the stock and the bond markets may be getting ahead of themselves by assuming that the worst is over. Far too much is now riding on expectations for an early Fed pivot. Some analysts have also argued that stock investors may be ignoring negative operating leverage and a possible squeeze on profit margins.

Given the ongoing uncertainty about the future pace of disinflation, and potential risks involving premature easing of financial conditions and stickiness in services inflation, it may be in the interest of market participants to avoid excessive exuberance.

It is too early to claim victory in the inflation battle or even to rule out a resurgence in underlying inflationary pressures — that was one of the key takeaways from the experience of the 1970s.   

US Public Universities - Flagships versus Regionals

Flagships Across the Country Prosper While Regional Colleges Wither
https://www.chronicle.com/article/flagships-prosper-while-regionals-suffer 

Preparing for Natural Disasters

Like Finland, Imagine Everything That Could Go Wrong by Jared Diamond
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/13/opinion/earthquake-natural-disaster.html 

Climate-change migrants

AI and the Justice System

Can AI Improve the Justice System?
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/02/ai-in-criminal-justice-system-courtroom-asylum/673002/
A fairer legal system may need to be a little less human. 

Algorithms were supposed to make Virginia judges fairer. What happened was far more complicated.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/11/19/algorithms-were-supposed-make-virginia-judges-more-fair-what-actually-happened-was-far-more-complicated/

Related:

https://www.wired.com/story/algorithms-shouldve-made-courts-more-fair-what-went-wrong/

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/06/should-we-be-afraid-of-ai-in-the-criminal-justice-system/592084/

Can China Provide a Boost to the World Economy?

Don’t Count on China to Save the World Economy
https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-economy-consumer-spending-11675980834 

IT Spending

Beyond Silicon Valley, Spending on Technology Is Resilient
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/13/technology/technology-spending-resilient.html 

Super Bowl as an Economic Indicator

The Super Bowl Is an Economic Indicator
https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2023/02/super-bowl-ads-crypto-inflation-touch-grass-economy/673019/ 

Challenges Ahead for BOJ

BOJ governor pick Ueda faces disentangling decade of ultraloose policy
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Bank-of-Japan/BOJ-governor-pick-Ueda-faces-disentangling-decade-of-ultraloose-policy 

An Extreme Form of Inter-Generational Conflict

A Yale Professor Suggested Mass Suicide for Old People in Japan. What Did He Mean?  
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/12/world/asia/japan-elderly-mass-suicide.html 

The Ukraine Conflict - A War without End?

Jeremy Warner notes:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/02/11/zelensky-plays-fawning-western-suitors-like-violin/
Whatever the answer, Zelensky plays his fawning suitors like a violin. Never mind war planes; fast track entry into the European Union is now virtually assured.
But first he's got to win the war. Western aid or not, there is little sign of the required breakthrough, or even a plausible answer to what “winning” really means. Is it taking back all the disputed territory, including Crimea? Without regime change in Russia, there is no chance of that.
In any case, it is remarkable just how resigned we seem to have become to the prospect of war without end, even uninterested.
 

Russian exodus stands to redefine the country for generations
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/13/russia-diaspora-war-ukraine/

What Russia Got Wrong: Can Moscow Learn from Its Failures in Ukraine?
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/what-russia-got-wrong-moscow-failures-in-ukraine-dara-massicot 

1969 versus 2023

Enter our time machine to 1969, the last time unemployment was this low
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/02/07/1969-vs-2023/ 

Glen Loury - A Thought-Provoking and Controversial Economist

Glen Loury - Conversations with Tyler Cowen
https://youtu.be/p_8tdVSTf8Q
 
2014 – Minneapolis Fed Interview with Glenn Loury
https://www.minneapolisfed.org/~/media/files/pubs/region/14-06/region_june_2014_interview_glenn_loury.pdf 

Post-Pandemic Labor Market - Prospects Improve for Less-Skilled

Americans With a College Degree Saw Wages Decline the Most in Two Decades
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-10/americans-with-a-college-degree-saw-wages-decline-most-in-two-decades
In 2022, median annual pay was $52,000 for Americans with a bachelor’s degree, according to data released by the New York Federal Reserve Friday. That’s a 7.4% decline in inflation-adjusted terms — the steepest plunge since 2004, erasing nearly all of the pandemic-era gains. It was sharpest for those earning the most.

Restaurants can’t find workers because they’ve found better jobs
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/02/03/worker-shortage-restaurants-hotels-economy/
An estimated 2.5 million people have died, retired or otherwise dropped out since 2020. Americans older than 55, in particular, stopped working at heightened rates during the pandemic because of covid-related health risks. Plus, rapid run-ups in home values and stock prices made it financially viable for scores of older Americans to retire. Those extra vacancies in the job market, researchers have found, created room for people in the service industry to move into new lines of work. 

Related:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/biggest-pay-raises-went-to-black-workers-young-people-and-low-wage-earners-11674425793