Inflation is Still Running Hot

Inflation Cooled Just Slightly, With Worrying Details
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/14/business/economy/january-cpi-inflation-report.html

Inflation eases again, but bringing prices further down will take work
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/02/14/inflation-easing-cpi-january/
"The report showed January prices rose 0.5 percent in comparison with the previous month, a bump from the 0.1 percent rise in the December report, and a less-than-encouraging sign for economists and policymakers who argue that progress is best measured month by month…
A top concern is that the remaining sources of inflation — many of which are tied to the hot labor market and rising wages — will be difficult to tame. Last week, survey results from the University of Michigan also showed that consumers’ inflation expectations over the coming year increased, even if they’re feeling better about the economy as a whole".

US Inflation Stays Elevated, Adding Pressure for More Fed Hikes
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-14/us-inflation-stays-elevated-adding-pressure-for-more-fed-hikes
Bond Market Keeps Inflation Expectations Elevated After CPI Data
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-14/bond-market-keeps-inflation-expectations-elevated-after-cpi-data

As costs rise, many older Americans have changed the way they shop and eat out. For some, it could affect their health or leave them feeling isolated.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/14/business/inflation-food-prices-seniors.html 

From BLS:

Are markets right in expecting an ‘immaculate disinflation’? BY VIVEKANAND JAYAKUMAR - 02/06/23

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3844349-are-markets-right-in-expecting-an-immaculate-disinflation/    

All in all, it appears that both the stock and the bond markets may be getting ahead of themselves by assuming that the worst is over. Far too much is now riding on expectations for an early Fed pivot. Some analysts have also argued that stock investors may be ignoring negative operating leverage and a possible squeeze on profit margins.

Given the ongoing uncertainty about the future pace of disinflation, and potential risks involving premature easing of financial conditions and stickiness in services inflation, it may be in the interest of market participants to avoid excessive exuberance.

It is too early to claim victory in the inflation battle or even to rule out a resurgence in underlying inflationary pressures — that was one of the key takeaways from the experience of the 1970s.