Attention Economy


Friday, September 30, 2022

Insuring Property in Florida - Pricing Climate Risk


Florida’s insurance woes could make Ian’s economic wrath even worse

Hurricane Ian’s Toll Is Severe. Lack of Insurance Will Make It Worse.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/29/climate/hurricane-ian-flood-insurance.html

Hurricane Ian’s Devastation Shows the Challenge of Pricing Climate Risk
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/29/business/hurricane-ian-damage-risk.html
As severe weather events become more frequent, pricing the risk associated with them will only get trickier. 

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UK Financial Risks

Sleepy Corner of U.K.’s Pension Industry Forced the Bank of England’s Hand
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/30/business/bonds-pensions-bank-of-england.html
 
UK Outlook Cut to Negative by S&P Amid Rising Fiscal Risks
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-30/uk-outlook-cut-to-negative-by-s-p-amid-rising-fiscal-risks

‘You Can Feel the Fear’: U.K. Borrowers Face Up to a Broken Mortgage Market
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/30/business/uk-mortgage-markets.html
 
Hardly a Surprise: Pension Funds Stoked the UK Rout
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-09-30/hardly-a-surprise-pension-funds-stoked-the-uk-rout
An outsized portion of British government debt is owned by pensions, so when those money managers misjudged risk, the turmoil spread quickly.

How Kwasi Kwarteng’s budget-busting growth plan turned into week from hell
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/sep/30/kwasi-kwarteng-budget-growth-plan-tory-party-conference

Will the UK's Economic Gamble Pay Off?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3664758-will-the-uks-economic-gamble-pay-off/

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Thursday, September 29, 2022

Florida: Population Growth and Exposure to Weather Disasters

Maps show how millions of people have moved into Hurricane Ian’s path
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/09/28/florida-population-growth-hurricane-ian-path/
Florida’s allure has been a constant for generations. But recent decades have brought more transplants — and more development — than ever. In few places is that more apparent than along the swath of coastline facing disastrous impacts from Ian, from the Tampa Bay area south to Fort Myers and Naples.
From 1970 to 2020, census records show, the Cape Coral-Fort Myers area grew an astounding 623 percent, to more than 760,000 people. Over that same period, the North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton area grew to 283 percent to nearly 834,000 residents. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater saw growth of more than 187 percent and is now home to more than 3.1 million people.

Why Florida is more prone to hurricanes
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/09/27/florida-hurricane-vulnerability-explainer/ 

Related:

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Wednesday, September 28, 2022

Trussonomics - UK Government's Big Policy Gamble

Moody's threatens to downgrade UK credit rating after tax cuts
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/28/moodys-threatens-downgrade-uk-credit-rating-kwasi-kwartengs/
 
Bank of England forced to intervene in markets over ‘material risk’ to UK economy
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/28/bank-england-forced-intervene-markets-material-risk-uk-economy/

Treacherous path ahead for Bank of England and markets
https://www.ft.com/content/ab59b572-acc2-4ad8-989d-a6e5a4ca4c1a
 
Bank of England intervenes to avert credit crunch, economic fallout
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/28/boe-uk-pound-intervention/
 
The Return of Inflation Makes Deficits More Dangerous
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-return-of-inflation-makes-deficits-more-dangerous-11664366538

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Inequality - US versus Europe

Why Is Europe More Equal than the United States?
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/app.20200703
Abstract
This article combines all available data to produce pretax and posttax income inequality series in 26 European countries from 1980 to 2017. Our estimates are consistent with macroeconomic growth and comparable with US distributional national accounts. Inequality grew in nearly all European countries, but much less than in the US. Contrary to a widespread view, we demonstrate that Europe's lower inequality levels cannot be explained by more equalizing tax and transfer systems. After accounting for indirect taxes and in-kind transfers, the US redistributes a greater share of national income to low-income groups than any European country. "Predistribution," not "redistribution," explains why Europe is less unequal than the United States. 

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A Burnout Crisis

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Are Bonds Getting Cheap Enough to Buy?

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Tuesday, September 27, 2022

US Housing Market - Trends and Recent Shifts

US New-Home Sales Unexpectedly Rise in Break from Downturn
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-27/us-sales-of-new-homes-unexpectedly-rise-in-a-break-from-downturn
 
US Housing Prices Fall for First Time Since 2012
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-27/us-home-price-growth-slowed-in-july-as-housing-market-cools
 
As Home Prices Surge, Americans Are Moving to Cheaper Places
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-27/rising-home-prices-send-people-moving-to-texas-florida
 
Publicly traded corporate landlords are reporting some of their highest margins ever, while smaller operators say rent increases are eaten up by costs.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/27/business/economy/landlords-rent-inflation.html 

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Monday, September 26, 2022

Crash of the British Pound

Why the pound is falling, what it means – and what can be done about it
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/26/why-pound-falling-what-means-what-can-done/
 
Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng accused of playing ‘A-level economics’ by Tory rebels
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/09/26/liz-truss-kwasi-kwarteng-accused-playing-a-level-economics-tory/
 
Markets warn sterling slump could lead UK interest rates to triple by next year
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/26/pound-sterling-uk-interest-rates-bank-of-england
 
Why a Weak British Pound Matters
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/26/business/british-pound-weak.html
 
The UK Should Be Worried About Emerging Market Comparisons
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-09-26/emerging-market-currency-crisis-tag-is-alarming-for-britain 

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Sunday, September 25, 2022

The Bear Market Returns



High interest rates are here to stay – and markets have woken up
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/24/high-interest-rates-stay-markets-have-woken/

The stock market may be heading for a classic ‘double bottom’—but that could be a good thing for investors
https://fortune.com/2022/09/22/market-double-bottom/

Tumbling Stocks and Bonds Imperil Tech, the Dollar, and Private Equity
The Market Still Isn’t Priced for a Proper Recession
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-market-still-isnt-priced-for-a-proper-recession-11663857523
 
Don’t Give Up on the Stock Market
https://www.wsj.com/articles/dont-give-up-on-the-stock-market-equity-investors-healthcare-costs-inflation-federal-reserve-population-growth-prices-stagflation-11663789915
Though uncertainty lies ahead, the right equities investment strategy can yield portfolio stability
 
PRESCIENT COMMENTARY:
Are investors right in expecting a dovish Fed pivot? BY VIVEKANAND JAYAKUMAR | The Hill, August 2, 2022 
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3582559-are-investors-right-in-expecting-a-dovish-fed-pivot/
“Since inflation is expected to remain well above the 2 percent target level for quite a while, the central bank has to forcefully persuade investors that rate cuts will not be forthcoming anytime soon …
If investors are indeed misreading the Fed’s commitment to maintaining a tight policy for a prolonged period and are failing to adequately take into account future inflation risks, then recent stock and bond market rallies may well prove to be premature and even counterproductive”.  

New era of inflation will bedevil central banks and bond markets by Vivekanand Jayakumar | The Hill, July 1, 2022
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3543857-new-era-of-inflation-will-bedevil-central-banks-and-bond-markets/
If we do end up in a prolonged period of above-target inflation, the four-decade long bull market in bonds will finally be over…
If expected inflation and term premium, which had both been subdued for much of the past two decades, were to rise noticeably and persistently, the bond market is in for a significant surprise. Despite recent increases in U.S. Treasury bond yields, they are still relatively subdued and may not appropriately reflect the potential risk of elevated inflation over the medium or long run.

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Anxiety and Dreams

Why Adults Still Dream About School
https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2022/09/why-school-haunts-our-dreams-long-after-graduation/671506/
Long after graduation, anxiety in waking life often drags dreamers back into the classroom. 

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India’s Digital Payments Revolution

The central bank has played a key role in the country’s digital payment boom
https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/Fandd/Article/2022/September/digital-journey-india.ashx
India’s digital payment volume has climbed at an average annual rate of about 50 percent over the past five years. That itself is one of the world’s fastest growth rates, but its expansion has been even more rapid—about 160 percent annually—in India’s unique, real-time, mobile-enabled system, the Unified Payments Interface (UPI). Transactions more than doubled, to 5.86 billion, in June from a year earlier as the number of participating banks jumped 44 percent, to 330. Values nearly doubled in the same period. 

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Saturday, September 24, 2022

Resurgent Dubai

Related:

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Muslim Immigrants, Assimilation, and Political Backlash in Europe

The far right is having a moment in Europe. Actually, everywhere.
https://www.vox.com/world/2022/9/24/23366464/italy-elections-meloni-sweden-europe-far-right
 
Anti-immigrant party helps defeat Sweden’s government
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/14/sweden-democrats-election/
Related:
https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2022/0916/Sweden-first-party-surges-to-success-furthers-right-wing-trend
 
Islamist preacher accused of ‘stirring up hatred’ in Leicester
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/09/24/islamist-preacher-accused-stirring-hatred-leicester/
Related:
https://theprint.in/opinion/leicester-clashes-show-uk-is-a-hotbed-of-islamic-radicalism-but-hindus-must-keep-calm/1139035/
 
Cracks in the Melting Pot? Religiosity and Assimilation among the Diverse Muslim Population in France
https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/712804
Abstract
The maintenance of high religiosity levels among Muslim youths in Western Europe constitutes a puzzle in need of an explanation. Focusing on France and using a new empirical strategy for the quantitative study of cultural differences between heterogeneous populations, this study first demonstrates that French Muslims form a diverse group yet one with a consistent and sizable “religiosity differential” resisting intergenerational assimilation to native levels. It then formulates and tests five hypotheses to explain the second generation’s delayed religious assimilation. Material insecurity, the perception and self-report of discrimination, parental religious socialization, transnational ties with the origin country, and neighborhood ethnic segregation are all influential but with an uneven impact across subgroups within native and Muslim populations. Together, results suggest that the religiosity differential stems from a mixture of cultural transmission from the context of origin and blocked acculturation due to stratification and social closure in the context of destination. 

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Dreaming of an Early Retirement

Millennials Want to Retire at 50. How to Afford It Is Another Matter.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/24/business/millennials-retirement.html 
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State of the Crypto Industry

Is crypto a house of cards?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/interactive/2022/crypto-exchange-bitcoin-history/
A look behind the scenes of the unstable industry. 

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Weekend Readings - Identity Politics

Stop Making Asian Americans Pay the Price for Campus Diversity
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/23/opinion/race-admissions.html

Stakeholder capitalism poisons democracy, argues Vivek Ramaswamy


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Friday, September 23, 2022

Truss Embraces Thatcherism

U.K. Government Goes Full Tilt on Tax Cuts and Free-Market Economics
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/23/world/europe/uk-tax-cuts-economy.html
 
Liz Truss has taken the biggest ideological gamble for 40 years
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2022/09/liz-truss-taken-biggest-ideological-gamble-40-years 

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Tech Workers Get a Reality Check

“The party is over”: How Meta and Google are using recession fears to clean house
https://www.vox.com/recode/2022/9/22/23366695/google-meta-recession-fears-mark-zuckerberg-sundar-pichai 

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False Hagiography

Today’s tech billionaires think they’re self-made geniuses who deserve veneration. But we don’t have to believe that.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/09/big-tech-founders-gates-neumann-jobs/671519/
Scott Galloway (Professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business) notes:
“Since the mid-1970s, income growth for middle- and low-income households has been sluggish. Income in 2021 for the bottom quintile of households is up 12 percent since 1975, compared with a 95 percent increase for the top quintile. Yes, in some areas of spending, these limited dollars could buy more than ever before—there have never been so many different kinds of sneakers for sale. But that’s cold comfort when health care, education, and housing take ever deeper bites of a stagnating income. And that doesn’t account for the busted 401(k)s, second mortgages, and general financial oppression that my industry—higher education—has levied on lower- and middle-income households.
What turns this from bad to terrible, what makes it un-American, is that these advantages are becoming entrenched. The elites are digging in, protecting their growing fortunes from the risks of the very markets they claim to support. Bailouts, tax breaks, and subsidies are the tools of entrenchment. For those at the top, our capitalism has become cronyism: rugged individualism on the way up, but socialism on the way down”. 

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Thursday, September 22, 2022

US Housing Market Dynamics – Sellers Trapped in Place

Housing Paralysis Engulfs US Buyers With Prices Starting to Fall
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-22/will-home-prices-fall-higher-mortgage-rates-are-freezing-out-us-buyers
 
After Years of Low Mortgage Rates, Home Sellers Are Scarce
https://www.wsj.com/articles/after-years-of-low-mortgage-rates-home-sellers-are-scarce-11663810759
Homeowners wearing the ‘golden handcuffs’ of low mortgage costs are reluctant to sell their homes now that rates are much higher
 
US Mortgage Rates Jump to 6.29%, Highest Since October 2008
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-22/mortgage-rates-in-us-jump-to-6-29-highest-since-october-2008 

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US Labor Market - Short-Term and Long-Term Issues


Wall Street’s Bosses Reassert Themselves With the Return of Annual Culls
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-22/wall-street-culls-signal-worker-s-job-market-is-over
Even junior bankers gained ground during the pandemic. But now the bosses—from David Solomon at Goldman Sachs on down—are preparing to shed staff and bring down bonuses.


Will This Recession See Massive Layoffs?

Men Without Work in the Post-Pandemic Era
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Financial Market Developments

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Wednesday, September 21, 2022

Women's Cricket - India Thrash England


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Fed Stays on Course

Fed raises interest rates by 0.75 points to fight inflation
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/09/21/fed-rate-hike-inflation/

Bad News from the Fed? We’ve Been Here Before.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/22/business/fed-rate-inflation-volcker.html
Fed rate increases are causing pain now. But an inside look at the Volcker era shows that conditions were far worse when the Fed tried different tacks to tame inflation.

 
Fed Rate Decision Sends U.S. Treasury Yields in Different Directions
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-treasury-yields-steady-ahead-of-fed-decision-11663770829 
 

FOMC Statement – September 21, 2022
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20220921a.htm
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3 to 3-1/4 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. 



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Can Automation Resolve the Labor Shortage Problem?

The robots are here. And they are making you fries.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/09/20/robots-automating-restaurant-industry/
Meet Flippy, Sippy and Chippy, the newest technology stepping in to address a protracted labor crunch in food service 

Starbucks Shares Shift in Strategy, to Automation and Expansion
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/13/business/starbucks-reinvention-strategy-employees.html 

The Supply Chain Broke. Robots Are Supposed to Help Fix It.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/07/business/robots-automation-supply-chain.html 

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Why India Outperforms Pakistan

India’s economy has outpaced Pakistan’s handily since Partition in 1947 – politics explains why
https://theconversation.com/indias-economy-has-outpaced-pakistans-handily-since-partition-in-1947-politics-explains-why-187053
“…India’s stronger embrace of democracy – at the same time that Pakistan experienced frequent military dictatorships and changes in government – has a lot to do with it”.
 
Pakistan Could Have Averted Its Climate Catastrophe
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/pakistan-could-have-averted-its-climate-catastrophe/2022/08/30/4c2d3d92-28b8-11ed-a90a-fce4015dfc8f_story.html
 
How Pakistan’s Catastrophic Floods Spiraled into a Nightmare
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-09-08/how-pakistan-s-catastrophic-floods-spiraled-into-a-nightmare 

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Inflation and Profit Margins

What’s Next for Profits? Cars Shed Light on a Key Inflation Question.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/21/business/economy/inflation-car-market.html 

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Miami - A Financial Hub?

Citadel’s Griffin Brings Billions to Miami with Political Winds at His Back
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-09-20/citadel-s-ken-griffin-brings-billions-to-make-miami-wall-street-south
The Citadel founder worth $29.6 billion has ditched Chicago for Wall Street South. Not everyone in Miami is so welcoming.
 
Related:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ken-griffin-makes-wall-street-south-in-miami-a-reality/2022/06/23/e590efc6-f328-11ec-ac16-8fbf7194cd78_story.html 

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There are Plentiful Jobs in the Public Sector

Government Jobs Are Plentiful, but Nobody Wants Them
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-09-16/public-sector-jobs-are-proving-hard-to-fill
While private sector employment is recovering from the pandemic, public-sector rolls are more than a million short. 

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Tuesday, September 20, 2022

Challenges Facing US and European Housing Markets

After Years of Low Mortgage Rates, Home Sellers Are Scarce
https://www.wsj.com/articles/after-years-of-low-mortgage-rates-home-sellers-are-scarce-11663810759
Homeowners wearing the ‘golden handcuffs’ of low mortgage costs are reluctant to sell their homes now that rates are much higher


A New Set of Housing Winners and Losers Is Emerging
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-09-20/personal-wealth-a-new-set-of-housing-winners-and-losers-is-emerging
Economic inequality this decade will largely be defined by those who bought homes before 2022 and those who didn’t.
 
The UK’s Rental Market Crisis Has Been Years in the Making
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-24/the-uk-s-rental-market-crisis-has-been-years-in-the-making
A squeeze in residential housing has culminated in this summer’s property drought. Many would-be renters can’t find a home at any price.
 
Who escapes the great mortgage reset? - Financial Times
https://www.ft.com/content/863d3425-306b-46fc-805d-b234db8f294a 

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Monday, September 19, 2022

The Disconnect Between Production and Employment

The puzzling disconnect between production and employment by VIVEKANAND JAYAKUMAR | The Hill, 09/19/22
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3650164-the-puzzling-disconnect-between-production-and-employment/
One of the puzzling economic developments during the first half of 2022 (2022H1) was the sharp disconnect between output and employment growth. Data released so far suggest that the economy shrank during 2022H1. Yet, employment growth was exceedingly robust during 2022H1.
Why are companies adding so many workers if aggregate production is falling? Is the disconnect mostly the result of measurement errors or is something more structural affecting the U.S. economy? How does the output-employment divergence affect the Federal Reserve’s ongoing battle against high inflation? 

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US Housing Market Cools Rapidly As Mortgage Rates Top 6%

Home-Flipper Opendoor Hit with Losses in Echo of Zillow Collapse
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-19/home-flipper-opendoor-hit-with-losses-in-echo-of-zillow-collapse
Company lost money on 42% of its August resales after it failed to anticipate slide in housing demand.
 
Here’s How Much a New Monthly Mortgage Payment Has Surged in 10 US Metros
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-19/here-s-how-much-a-new-monthly-mortgage-payment-has-surged-in-10-us-metros


Mortgage rates surpass 6 percent for the first time since 2008
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/09/15/mortgage-rates-6-percent/

Mortgage Rates Top 6% for the First Time Since the 2008 Financial Crisis
https://www.wsj.com/articles/mortgage-rates-hit-6-02-highest-since-the-financial-crisis-11663250402 


The 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Closely Tracks the benchmark 10-Year T-Note Yield
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Capital Owners versus Labor – The Case of US Railroads

Railroads’ Strategy Thrilled Wall Street, but Not Customers and Workers
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/19/business/freight-rail.html
Freight railways pushed to streamline their operations and improve their profit margins. Critics say the approach left the system stretched thin. 

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The Significance of Mathematics

Math Is the Great Secret
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/18/opinion/math-adolescence-mystery.html
Alec Wilkinson notes:
But if I had understood how deeply mathematics is embedded in the world, how it figures in every gesture we make, whether crossing a crowded street or catching a ball, how it figures in painting and perspective and in architecture and in the natural world and so on, then perhaps I might have seen it the way the ancients had seen it, as a fundamental part of the world’s design, perhaps even the design itself. If I had felt that the world was connected in its parts, I might have been provoked to a kind of wonder and enthusiasm. I might have wanted to learn. 

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Saturday, September 17, 2022

Growing Risk of a Global Recession

Global economy weakening amid inflation fight, war and lingering pandemic
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/09/17/global-recession-inflation-central-banks/  


Stocks fall after FedEx warns of global recession
https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/16/investing/dow-stock-market-today/index.html  
 
The World Bank warns the risk of a ‘global recession’ is rising as central banks worldwide raise rates simultaneously
https://fortune.com/2022/09/16/world-bank-warns-global-recession-central-banks-raise-rates-in-unison/

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US Foreign Policy Errors - The Case of Pakistan

Biden’s Dangerous Embrace of Pakistan
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/biden-embraces-pakistan-terrorist-ties-by-brahma-chellaney-2022-09
 
30 years on, Zia ul-Haq’s extremist, military legacy alive and well in Pakistan
https://theprint.in/india/governance/30-years-on-zia-ul-haqs-extremist-military-legacy-alive-and-well-in-pakistan/100329/
But it was Zia’s measure aligning Islamic radicalism along with the sophisticated weaponry that was given to Pakistan by the US to help overthrow the Soviets in Afghanistan that will remain his unfortunate, lasting legacy. When the Soviets withdrew in 1989, badly bruised and beaten, the Americans stopped their gun-funding and Pakistan lapsed back into the Third World.
But the guns remained and the Islamic parties proliferated. By now, millions of Afghan refugees had streamed into Pakistan and they brought heroin with them. The preacher’s extremist fatwa was backed by boys with guns. Pakistan’s moderate, civilian space began to shrink.

What’s 50 Times More Dangerous Than Afghanistan?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-withdrawal-afghanistan-pakistan-nuclear-lashkar-e-taiba-tehreek-e-taliban-islamist-11629402468
Sadanand Dhume notes:
“Between 2002 and 2018, the U.S. government gave Pakistan more than $33 billion in assistance, including about $14.6 billion in so-called Coalition Support Funds paid by the Pentagon to the Pakistani military. (Donald Trump ended nearly all military assistance and also slashed nonmilitary aid from its peak in the Obama years.) During the same period, Pakistan ensured the failure of America’s Afghanistan project by surreptitiously sheltering, arming and training the Taliban”.
 
Pakistan and China hail 'brotherhood' but IMF terms spell friction
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Pakistan-and-China-hail-brotherhood-but-IMF-terms-spell-friction 

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Reconsidering the Original Results from the Marshmallow Test

New Study Disavows Marshmallow Test’s Predictive Powers
https://anderson-review.ucla.edu/new-study-disavows-marshmallow-tests-predictive-powers/
 
Predicting mid-life capital formation with pre-school delay of gratification and life-course measures of self-regulation
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2019.08.016
Abstract
How well do pre-school delay of gratification and life-course measures of self-regulation predict mid-life capital formation? We surveyed 113 participants of the 1967–1973 Bing pre-school studies on delay of gratification when they were in their late 40’s. They reported 11 mid-life capital formation outcomes, including net worth, permanent income, absence of high-interest debt, forward-looking behaviors, and educational attainment. To address multiple hypothesis testing and our small sample, we pre-registered an analysis plan of well–powered tests. As predicted, a newly constructed and pre-registered measure derived from preschool delay of gratification does not predict the 11 capital formation variables (i.e., the sign-adjusted average correlation was 0.02). A pre-registered composite self-regulation index, combining preschool delay of gratification with survey measures of self-regulation collected at ages 17, 27, and 37, does predict 10 of the 11 capital formation variables in the expected direction, with an average correlation of 0.19. The inclusion of the preschool delay of gratification measure in this composite index does not affect the index’s predictive power. We tested several hypothesized reasons that preschool delay of gratification does not have predictive power for our mid-life capital formation variables.

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Betting Big on India

The world’s biggest bet on India
https://www.economist.com/business/2022/09/14/the-worlds-biggest-bet-on-india
What Tata’s $90bn pivot to its home market says about the planet’s fifth-biggest economy
 
Vedanta, Foxconn to invest $19.5 billion in India's Gujarat for chip, display project
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/vedanta-foxconn-sign-mou-with-modis-home-state-20-bln-chip-foray-2022-09-13/

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Central America and the Migrant Crisis - Background Info

The U.S. Vowed to Defend Central American Democracy. Autocrats Had Other Plans.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/17/world/americas/central-america-democracy-biden.html
 
To Solve the Border Crisis, Look Beyond the Border
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/11/08/border-crisis-guatemala-migration-honduras-central-latin-america/
U.S. policy should focus on legal circular migration, targeted investments, and leveraging diaspora networks to make staying put a viable option for Central Americans.
 
A Persistent Crisis in Central America
https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/why-the-central-america-crisis-is-so-persistent/
 
Fleeing a hell the US helped create: why Central Americans journey north
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/dec/19/central-america-migrants-us-foreign-policy

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Friday, September 16, 2022

Miami's Real Estate Boom

How Miami became the center of America’s housing crisis
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Zambia's Debt Trap

Lenders urged to cancel Zambia debt as country faces economic collapse
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/16/zambia-debt-lenders-urged-to-cancel
Economists accuse bondholders of standing to make huge profits at the expense of the crisis-hit country 

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Weather Shocks and the Global Economy

The World Has a $1 Trillion La Nina Problem
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-la-nina-weather-risk-global-economies/
It’s all but guaranteed the world will see another year of weather disasters
that destroy homes, ruin crops, disrupt shipping and threaten lives. 

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Thursday, September 15, 2022

Roger Federer Retires


Roger Federer, a 20-time Grand Slam champion, announces his retirement.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/09/15/roger-federer-retires/
 
Roger Federer’s rivalry with Rafael Nadal lifted tennis – and sport – to a height we will never see again
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2022/09/15/roger-federers-rivalry-rafael-nadal-lifted-tennis-sport/


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Costly Disinflation

New Inflation Developments Are Rattling Markets and Economists. Here’s Why.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/15/business/economy/inflation-markets-economy.html
Inflation is less about pandemic and war surprises and more about economic momentum. That could make the solution more painful. 

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US Demographics: Declining Birth Rate and Population Shifts

U.S. Population Growth Has Nearly Flatlined. Is That So Bad?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/14/opinion/population-birthrate-decline.html 

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Bolsonaro and the Future of Brazilian Democracy

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Sweden Lurches to the Right

Sweden’s Far Right Just Made History. Is It the Country’s Future?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/14/world/europe/sweden-elections-right.html
The anti-immigration Sweden Democrats beat out more moderate right-wing parties in a country famed for liberal governance. It is the latest example of the right’s staying power across Europe. 

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Wednesday, September 14, 2022

Norway's Windfall

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Economists in Silicon Valley

Big Tech is Hiring Economists from Elite Grad Schools
https://www.economist.com/business/2022/09/07/why-economists-are-flocking-to-silicon-valley
 
Athey, Susan, and Michael Luca. 2019. "Economists (and Economics) in Tech Companies." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33 (1): 209-30.
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.33.1.209

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Health and Lifestyle


Plastic Might Be Making You Obese
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/plastic-might-be-making-you-obese/2022/09/11/73c0f132-31d2-11ed-a0d6-415299bfebd5_story.html
Scientists are exploring how chemicals found in packaging and other everyday products boost production of fatty tissues.

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State of the US Job Market

In New York City, Pandemic Job Losses Linger
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/14/nyregion/nyc-covid-job-losses.html
Who Are America’s Missing Workers?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/12/business/economy/labor-participation-covid.html
 
It’s White-Collar Jobs That Are at Risk in the Next Recession
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-13/tech-layoffs-2022-portend-white-collar-recession
Industries such as tech, finance, and real estate are poised to see the biggest layoffs in a downturn.
 
Starbucks Shares Shift in Strategy, to Automation and Expansion
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/13/business/starbucks-reinvention-strategy-employees.html 

The Supply Chain Broke. Robots Are Supposed to Help Fix It.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/07/business/robots-automation-supply-chain.html 

Goldman Sachs to kick off Wall Street layoff season with hundreds of job cuts this month
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/12/goldman-sachs-to-kick-off-wall-street-layoff-season-with-hundreds-of-job-cuts-this-month.html

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Tuesday, September 13, 2022

State of the US Economy

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Inflation Remains Stubbornly High

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Monday, September 12, 2022

US Labor Force Participation - Will 'Missing Workers' Return?

Who Are America’s Missing Workers?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/12/business/economy/labor-participation-covid.html
The labor market appears hot, but the share of people who are either working or actively looking for a job still hasn’t quite recovered. 

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Flood Risk and Real Estate Values

Real Estate Listings with Flood Scores Shift Home-Shopper Habits
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-12/real-estate-listings-with-flood-scores-shift-home-shopper-habits
Redfin users who were shown home flood scores went on to view lower-risk properties, an experiment by the company found.
 
Homebuyers With Access to Flood-Risk Data Bid on Lower-Risk Homes
https://www.redfin.com/news/redfin-users-interact-with-flood-risk-data/ 

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War on Terror - Costly Endeavor with Mixed Results

The enormous costs and elusive benefits of the war on terror.
https://www.vox.com/22654167/cost-deaths-war-on-terror-afghanistan-iraq-911
 
With Government Paralyzed and Militias Fighting, Iraq’s Instability Deepens
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/08/world/middleeast/iraq-failed-state-militias.html 

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A Better World Order

How to Build a Better Order
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/build-better-order-great-power-rivalry-dani-rodrik-stephen-walt
Limiting Great Power Rivalry in an Anarchic World 

Nobody Wants the Current World Order
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/nobody-wants-current-world-order
How All the Major Powers—Even the United States—Became Revisionists
 
Why U.S.-Chinese Tensions Put Developing Countries at Risk
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/sri-lanka/sri-lankan-debt-crisis-harbinger 


Andrew Sheng’s thought-provoking piece is worth reading:
Whose world? What order? Time has passed for the West to call the shots
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3183734/whose-world-what-order-time-has-passed-west-call-shots
 
The other side of US exceptionalism
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-exceptionalism-china-challenge-international-order-by-dani-rodrik-2022-06
Harvard economist Dani Rodrik offers a biting critique of US foreign policy:
To those who wonder why we should care about the decline of America’s relative power, US foreign-policy elites respond with a rhetorical question: Would you rather live in a world dominated by the US or by China? In truth, other countries would rather live in a world without domination, where smaller states retain a fair degree of autonomy, have good relations with all others, are not forced to choose sides, and do not become collateral damage when major powers fight it out. The sooner US leaders recognise that others do not view America’s global ambitions through the same rose-tinted glasses, the better it will be for everyone.  

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Rising Consumer Credit – A Cause for Concern?

Consumer Credit Is Soaring in the US. So What?
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-09-12/is-soaring-consumer-credit-bad-for-us-economy
Americans are borrowing at an unprecedented pace, but it’s way too soon to suggest it means they are having a tougher time making ends meet. 

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QT and the Treasury Bond Market

Fed’s Exit Puts World’s Biggest Bond Market on Shakier Ground
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/11/business/fed-treasury-market.html 

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Britain's Imperial Delusions



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