Attention Economy


Sunday, September 25, 2022

The Bear Market Returns



High interest rates are here to stay – and markets have woken up
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/24/high-interest-rates-stay-markets-have-woken/

The stock market may be heading for a classic ‘double bottom’—but that could be a good thing for investors
https://fortune.com/2022/09/22/market-double-bottom/

Tumbling Stocks and Bonds Imperil Tech, the Dollar, and Private Equity
The Market Still Isn’t Priced for a Proper Recession
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-market-still-isnt-priced-for-a-proper-recession-11663857523
 
Don’t Give Up on the Stock Market
https://www.wsj.com/articles/dont-give-up-on-the-stock-market-equity-investors-healthcare-costs-inflation-federal-reserve-population-growth-prices-stagflation-11663789915
Though uncertainty lies ahead, the right equities investment strategy can yield portfolio stability
 
PRESCIENT COMMENTARY:
Are investors right in expecting a dovish Fed pivot? BY VIVEKANAND JAYAKUMAR | The Hill, August 2, 2022 
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3582559-are-investors-right-in-expecting-a-dovish-fed-pivot/
“Since inflation is expected to remain well above the 2 percent target level for quite a while, the central bank has to forcefully persuade investors that rate cuts will not be forthcoming anytime soon …
If investors are indeed misreading the Fed’s commitment to maintaining a tight policy for a prolonged period and are failing to adequately take into account future inflation risks, then recent stock and bond market rallies may well prove to be premature and even counterproductive”.  

New era of inflation will bedevil central banks and bond markets by Vivekanand Jayakumar | The HillJuly 1, 2022
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3543857-new-era-of-inflation-will-bedevil-central-banks-and-bond-markets/
If we do end up in a prolonged period of above-target inflation, the four-decade long bull market in bonds will finally be over…
If expected inflation and term premium, which had both been subdued for much of the past two decades, were to rise noticeably and persistently, the bond market is in for a significant surprise. Despite recent increases in U.S. Treasury bond yields, they are still relatively subdued and may not appropriately reflect the potential risk of elevated inflation over the medium or long run.