China versus the West

Like in 1914 or 1939, we may be sleepwalking towards a global war that nothing can stop
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/31/like-1914-1939-may-sleepwalking-towards-global-war-nothing-can/
 
U.S. vs. China: Internal order will decide victor, Ray Dalio says
https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/Interview/U.S.-vs.-China-Internal-order-will-decide-victor-Ray-Dalio-says
 
Chinese scientists claim to have developed heat-seeking hypersonic missiles - beating US to the punch
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/12/31/chinese-scientists-claim-have-developed-heat-seeking-hypersonic/
 
China harvests masses of data on Western targets, documents show
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/china-harvests-masses-of-data-on-western-targets-documents-show/2021/12/31/3981ce9c-538e-11ec-8927-c396fa861a71_story.html 

Revealed: Huawei’s Oxbridge millions
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/revealed-huawei-s-oxbridge-millions 

Political Risk – Future of US Democracy

How does this end? Where the crisis in American democracy might be headed.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/22814025/democracy-trump-january-6-capitol-riot-election-violence
 
How to think about the threat to American democracy
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/01/01/how-to-think-about-the-threat-to-american-democracy
 
Asymmetric polarization is a powerful thing
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2022/01/01/the-republicans-are-still-donald-trumps-party-and-they-can-still-win
 
The American polity is cracked, and might collapse. Canada must prepare
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-american-polity-is-cracked-and-might-collapse-canada-must-prepare/
 
The Top 14 Causes of Political Polarization
https://www.the-american-interest.com/2018/05/16/the-top-14-causes-of-political-polarization/
 
Why So Many Democracies Are Floundering
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/29/opinion/democracy-fragmentation-america-europe.html 
Richard H. Pildes:
We pay too little attention to delivering effective government as a critical democratic value. We are familiar with the threats posed by democratic backsliding and the rise of illiberal forces in several democracies, including the United States. But the most pervasive and perhaps deepest challenge facing virtually all Western democracies today is the political fragmentation of democratic politics.

US States Experiencing Population Growth

These States Saw the Biggest Population Gains. Their Home Prices Surged.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/state-population-gains-home-prices-surged-51640818157 

Nigeria's Currency Woes

Nigeria Naira Plunges to Record Low, Falling for 9th Straight Year
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-31/naira-plunges-2-2-to-record-falls-for-ninth-straight-year 

India as a Counterbalance to China

China could be more dangerous than ever in 2022
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-great-a-threat-will-china-be-in-2022-

On volatile border between India and China, a high-altitude military buildup is underway
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/12/22/india-china-border-standoff/
The Andaman and Nicobar Islands: New Delhi’s Bulwark in the Indian Ocean
https://thediplomat.com/2021/12/the-andaman-and-nicobar-islands-new-delhis-bulwark-in-the-indian-ocean/

Striking a new global balance of power with India

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/581561-striking-a-new-global-balance-of-power-with-india
DAVID C. MULFORD AND JOHN RIVERA-DIRKS note:
Although it is in no one’s interest for China and India to go to war, it is in the global interest for India to be capable of defending itself against Chinese provocations and maintain the balance of power in the region. With India having modern military deterrents, China is less likely to be an aggressor to India or to India’s weaker neighbors like Bhutan and Nepal, who could easily suffer the same fate as Tibet. 
 

China’s Two-Ocean Strategy Puts India in a Pincer
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/04/india-china-ocean-geopolitics-sri-lanka-maldives-comoros/

Pentagon Worries About Chinese Buildup Near India
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/12/15/pentagon-india-china-border-buildup/

 
Fateful Triangle: How China Shaped U.S.-India Relations During the Cold War
https://www.brookings.edu/book/fateful-triangle/  

Unintended Consequences of Fed Policies

The Fed’s Doomsday Prophet Has a Dire Warning About Where We’re Headed
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/12/28/inflation-interest-rates-thomas-hoenig-federal-reserve-526177
Thomas Hoenig knew what quantitative easing and record-low interest rates would bring. 

An Instant Classic

Music City Bowl: Tennessee Volunteers vs. Purdue Boilermakers
https://youtu.be/IpKsHdJEgBo

Go Boilers !!

The Inflation Debate in Europe

Europe is pushing its luck by letting German inflation run wild
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/30/europe-pushing-luck-letting-german-inflation-run-wild/

Workers in Europe Are Demanding Higher Pay as Inflation Soars
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/13/business/workers-pay-europe-inflation.html 

Fighting Gerrymandering

Ungerrymandered: Michigan’s Maps, Independently Drawn, Set Up Fair Fight
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/29/us/politics/michigan-congressional-maps.html
A citizen ballot initiative took redistricting out of the hands of partisan legislators. The result: competitive political districts — and an example of how to push back against hyperpartisanship. 

The Top 14 Causes of Political Polarization
https://www.the-american-interest.com/2018/05/16/the-top-14-causes-of-political-polarization/

Democracy in Central and Eastern Europe

Is There a Recipe for Democratic Success?
https://www.the-american-interest.com/2020/09/10/is-there-a-recipe-for-democratic-success/
The mixed successes of transitions from communism in Central and Eastern Europe suggest that countries that cleanly broke with the past enjoyed greater success with reforms.

Inflation and MP in EMs

India Seen Breaking Ranks with Peers on Unwinding Easy Monetary Policy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-28/india-seen-breaking-ranks-with-peers-on-unwinding-easy-policy
 
Inflation Has Likely Peaked in Latin America’s Largest Economies
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-23/brazil-inflation-slows-more-than-expected-after-rate-hikes
 
Hungary Raises Interest Rates for Fifth Time Within a Month
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-09/hungary-raises-interest-rates-for-fifth-time-within-a-month

Putin Hails Central Bank for Averting Turkish-Style Crisis
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-23/putin-praises-bank-of-russia-for-averting-turkish-style-crisis
 
Turkey's currency woes are likely to get worse
https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/01/01/turkeys-currency-woes-are-likely-to-get-worse
Related:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-24/erdogan-says-turkey-won-t-again-tame-inflation-with-rate-hikes 

Central banks accelerate shift from dollar to gold worldwide
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/Central-banks-accelerate-shift-from-dollar-to-gold-worldwide

America’s Unusual Job Market

The most unusual job market in modern American history, explained
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/12/29/job-market-2021/ 

Voting Behavior of Immigrants

Mayda, Anna Maria, Giovanni Peri, and Walter Steingress. 2022. "The Political Impact of Immigration: Evidence from the United States." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 14 (1): 358-89.
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/app.20190081
Abstract
This paper studies the impact of immigration to the United States on the vote share for the Republican Party using county-level data from 1990 to 2016. Our main contribution is to show that an increase in high-skilled immigrants decreases the share of Republican votes, while an inflow of low-skilled immigrants increases it. These effects are mainly due to the indirect impact on existing citizens' votes, and this is independent of the origin country and race of immigrants. We find that the political effect of immigration is heterogeneous across counties and depends on their skill level, public spending, and noneconomic characteristics. 

US Economic Outlook

Political Fragmentation and Democratic Politics

The Top 14 Causes of Political Polarization
https://www.the-american-interest.com/2018/05/16/the-top-14-causes-of-political-polarization/

Why So Many Democracies Are Floundering

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/29/opinion/democracy-fragmentation-america-europe.html 

Richard H. Pildes:

We pay too little attention to delivering effective government as a critical democratic value. We are familiar with the threats posed by democratic backsliding and the rise of illiberal forces in several democracies, including the United States. But the most pervasive and perhaps deepest challenge facing virtually all Western democracies today is the political fragmentation of democratic politics.

The Political Center Does Have Meaning
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/political-centrism-can-still-have-meaning-by-andres-velasco-2021-12 

The Center Can Hold: Public Policy for an Age of Extremes
https://www.niskanencenter.org/the-center-can-hold-public-policy-for-an-age-of-extremes/

An Example of Political Lunacy:
5 GOP-led states extend unemployment aid to workers who lose jobs over vaccine mandates
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/12/27/5-gop-led-states-extend-unemployment-aid-workers-who-lose-jobs-over-vaccine-mandates/
Critics says the rule changes in Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Kansas and Tennessee are incentivizing people to skip shots, and undermining the White House’s pandemic response.

Chile's Political and Economic Future

Chile Rewrites Its Constitution, Confronting Climate Change Head On
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/28/climate/chile-constitution-climate-change.html
 
The Battle for Boric's Soul
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/chile-election-how-will-gabriel-boric-govern-by-jorge-g-castaneda-2021-12 

A Good Year for Test Cricket

Women’s Test cricket team of the year
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/dec/28/womens-test-cricket-team-of-the-year-from-ecclestone-to-verma
 
India’s Rising Superstar: Smriti Mandhana
https://youtu.be/1_K6SFQATbM  
https://youtu.be/ViXxwvAUz9w 

Remembering Indian cricket’s greatest moment of 2021

https://lifestyle.livemint.com/news/talking-point/remembering-indian-cricket-s-greatest-moment-of-2021-111640692893243.html

The Shady Side of Global Commodities Trading

Dubai Can’t Shake Off the Stain of Smuggled African Gold
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-12-28/where-does-gold-come-from-in-africa-suspected-smuggling-to-dubai-rings-alarms
 
 
“The World for Sale” peels back the cover on the secretive—and sometimes shady—people who make the modern world go around.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/01/world-for-sale-book-review-masters-universe-commodity-traders/ 

Foreign Policy Dilemmas

Avoiding the Worst in Ukraine and Taiwan
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/defusing-ukraine-taiwan-crises-by-jeffrey-d-sachs-2021-12
 
What the US Misunderstands About Russia
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/russia-troop-buildup-near-ukraine-security-talks-with-us-by-nina-l-khrushcheva-2021-12 

China is testing the West. We shouldn’t back down.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/12/23/china-is-testing-west-we-shouldnt-back-down/

Related:

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3161295/india-russia-ties-see-revival-china-afghanistan-and-central-asia

Rising Cost of Home Ownership

Many home insurance premiums are rising faster than inflation
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/12/27/rising-home-insurance/ 

Related:

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/12/new-york-city-rain-sewage-system-flood/621129/

The Living Wage Debate

Who Gets to Define What It Means to Live?
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/28/opinion/living-wage-calculator.html 

The Importance of Urban Centers

‘We need a new commons’: how city life can offer us the vital power of connection
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/dec/23/we-need-a-new-commons-how-city-life-can-offer-us-the-vital-power-of-connection
The pandemic has seen borders close and divisions widened. But in almost all aspects of life, humanity will only thrive by coming together 

Africa's Demographic Challenges

Africa’s population boom doesn’t spell a demographic dividend
https://www.ft.com/content/819e5d76-7652-4c4a-9157-b49d040fa1b6 

Africa’s high birth rate is keeping the continent poor – The Economist

https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2018/09/22/africas-high-birth-rate-is-keeping-the-continent-poor

Dangers of Demographic Denial

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2017/10/02/commentary/world-commentary/dangers-demographic-denial/

Global Coal Hypocrisy

Global Coal Hypocrisy
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/india-cop26-global-coal-hypocrisy-by-shashi-tharoor-2021-12
India’s stance on coal at the recent COP26 climate-change conference drew heavy criticism, but richer Western economies have done little to help developing countries’ green transition. India will make a good-faith effort to help avert climate disaster, but only within the limits of what it can feasibly do. 

BEST BOOKS OF 2021

THE ATLANTIC: THE 20 BEST BOOKS OF 2021
https://www.theatlantic.com/culture/archive/2021/12/best-books-2021-assembly-klara-and-the-sun/621088/

FT - Best Books of the Year 2021
https://www.ft.com/booksof2021

WSJ Best Business Books of 2021
https://www.wsj.com/articles/best-business-books-of-2021-11-picks-from-our-reviewers-innovators-investors-11640186219 

National Identity, Ethnic Identity, and a Sense of Belonging

Megan McArdle on Belonging, Home, and National Identity

Stanford Political Scientist, Francis Fukuyama, on Identity:
“Why National Identity Matters,” Journal of Democracy 29 (Oct. 2018): 5-15.
“Against Identity Politics," Foreign Affairs 97 (no. 5, Sept-Oct. 2018): 90-115. 

Addiction and Late Capitalism

The modern economy is built on addiction
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-modern-economy-is-built-on-addiction
Sam Leith:
The mechanisms of addiction — craving, overconsumption, dependence, shame and furtiveness, the chasing of irretrievable or imaginary highs, the diminishing returns of the old reward loop — are not just a weird deviation from the norm. They are the norm. They’re what the modern economy — and not just the Sackler fortune — is built on. The biggest tech companies in the world are built on the psychology of addiction: the craving for that next notification, that like, that retweet, the ping of an incoming email, the not-quite fulfilment of dinging another level on Candy Crush. And they’re just vanguard refinements in the limitless digital space of an economy already built on the queasy high of retail therapy, fast fashion and sugar-laden ‘treats’. 

Industry Concentration – US Beef Sector

Record Beef Prices, but Ranchers Aren’t Cashing In
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/27/business/beef-prices-cattle-ranchers.html
After years of consolidation, four companies dominate the meatpacking industry, while many ranchers are barely hanging on. 

Related:

Market Concentration and Competition Concerns

https://www.economist.com/schools-brief/2020/08/08/what-more-should-antitrust-be-doing

2021 Bond Market Peformance

Global Bond Winners for 2021 All Came from Emerging Markets
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-26/global-bond-winners-for-2021-all-came-from-emerging-markets 

Global bond markets on course for worst year since 1999
https://www.ft.com/content/7d11b596-7c0b-453b-a61f-9295d4103634

Pandemic's Impact on UK Real Estate Market

The great escape: where Londoners fled to during the pandemic
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/buy/great-escape-londoners-fled-pandemic/
 
Home-seekers despair as affordable property vanishes from UK hotspots
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/dec/26/home-seekers-despair-as-affordable-property-vanishes-from-uk-hotspots 

Geostrategy - The Quad

The Quad's Geo-Economic and Geostrategic Implications
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/special/p_a_w/174.html 

Why the Quad Alarms China
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-08-06/why-quad-alarms-china 

Quad must wrestle with post-AUKUS Asian dilemmas
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Quad-must-wrestle-with-post-AUKUS-Asian-dilemmas
Related:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/09/24/quad-us-india-australia-japan-china/

Why China Is Alienating the World
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2021-10-06/why-china-alienating-world

Trans-Atlantic 'Quad' prepares for new Eastern center of gravity
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Trans-Atlantic-Quad-prepares-for-new-Eastern-center-of-gravity

--

The Most Accurate Flat Map of Earth Yet
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-accurate-flat-map-of-earth-yet/

The Case for Standardized Tests

Who stands to gain most from Harvard’s SAT-optional policy? Harvard admissions officials.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/12/24/who-stands-gain-most-harvards-sat-optional-policy-harvard-admissions-officials/

By Ditching the SAT, Harvard Hurts Minority Students
https://www.wsj.com/articles/harvard-ditches-sat-hurts-minority-meritocracy-education-diversity-affirmative-action-asian-black-11640123407

Grades vs. SAT scores: Which is a better predictor of college success?

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-12-22/grades-vs-sat-scores-which-is-a-better-predictor-of-college-success

“Emily Engelschall, UC Riverside director of undergraduate admissions, says she sees the shortcomings of standardized testing but that the scores do help evaluate grades across vastly different high schools. She also worries that dropping the testing requirement could exacerbate grade inflation.

“If you don’t have some sort of standardized tests to balance out grade inflation,” she said, “then that does take one piece of the puzzle away from an admissions professional to help make a decision about a student.”

Jessica Howell, the College Board’s vice president of research, has said that a greater reliance on high school grades in the name of equity would be “misguided” because grade inflation is associated with wealth.”

The Truth About the SAT and ACT

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-truth-about-the-sat-and-act-1520521861

Standardized tests have their problems, but they remain the best way of assessing students’ academic merits.

https://www.city-journal.org/standardized-tests

Standardized Tests Predict Graduate Students' Success

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/315/5815/1080.summary 

Popularity of Global Leaders

GLOBAL LEADER APPROVAL RATINGS
https://morningconsult.com/global-leader-approval/

India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, has the highest rating
https://www.livemint.com/news/india/pm-modi-tops-in-global-leaders-approval-ratings-leaves-behind-biden-merkel-11636330004053.html 

China’s Role in Africa

Why China Is in Africa | The Daily Show
 

China’s Soft-Power Advantage in Africa
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/africa/2021-12-23/chinas-soft-power-advantage-africa 

China’s Trojan Gift: Creditor Imperialism
https://chellaney.net/2021/12/25/chinas-trojan-gift-creditor-imperialism/

The Cost of Doing Business in China

Intel should not be apologizing to Beijing — China still depends on Silicon Valley's technology
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2021/12/24/intel-should-not-apologising-beijing-china-still-depends-silicon/ 

Related:

https://www.theverge.com/2021/12/24/22852773/intel-apology-china-xinjiang-labor-goods

Did You Hear the One About Jamie Dimon and China’s Communist Party?
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-11-24/did-you-hear-the-one-about-jamie-dimon-and-china-s-communist-party
Related:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-24/jpmorgan-s-jamie-dimon-says-he-regrets-his-comments-on-china 

Wall St. Is Finally Getting Access to China. But for How Long?
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/15/business/wall-street-china.html 

In China, escalating cost of business sends some companies to the exits
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-business-foreign-companies/2021/11/25/f0ff625a-4056-11ec-9404-50a28a88b9cd_story.html

Automated Delivery Bots

Sidewalk Robots Find Foothold on College Campuses
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-23/sidewalk-delivery-robots-find-customers-in-college-kids-on-university-campuses 

History: 30th Anniversary of the Fall of the Soviet Union

Why Did the “Evil Empire” Collapse?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-did-the-evil-empire-collapse-11640185066

Who Saw the Collapse of the USSR Coming?
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-24/what-caused-the-soviet-union-to-collapse-30-years-ago 

Thirty Years Gone, the Soviet Union Is Not Quite Dead
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-23/the-soviet-union-may-have-imploded-30-years-ago-but-it-s-not-dead
 
For China, USSR’s 1991 Collapse Is Still News It Can Use
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-23/30-years-later-soviet-union-s-collapse-still-has-lessons-for-china
 
The Kremlin’s Strange Victory
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-09-27/kremlins-strange-victory 

The Changing Face of Globalization

What ‘Squid Game’ tells us about the changing face of globalization
https://www.ft.com/content/1a661eb7-960c-4aeb-845a-a4b82c98fc3c 

India's Family Business Empires

India's Godrej family aims to quietly unwind business empire
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/India-s-Godrej-family-aims-to-quietly-unwind-business-empire
In a country notorious for billionaire business family feuds, a 124-year-old Indian family conglomerate is aiming to break the mold without a whiff of conflict, as it puts finishing touches to a succession plan that would equitably divide family assets among members and hand the businesses to a new generation of leaders. 

Standard Model in Physics

2021: a year physicists asked, ‘What lies beyond the Standard Model?’
https://theconversation.com/2021-a-year-physicists-asked-what-lies-beyond-the-standard-model-173132 

Investment Strategies for 2022

Where to Find Cheaper Alternatives to Expensive Stocks
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-23/personal-finance-here-are-some-cheap-alternatives-to-expensive-stocks
Small companies, value shares and foreign markets have been horrible performers in recent years, which is precisely why they merit another look.   
 
Markets ignore risks of conflict over Ukraine and Taiwan at their peril
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3160536/markets-ignore-risks-conflict-over-ukraine-and-taiwan-their-peril 

China is Hoarding Food Reserves

China hoards over half the world's grain, pushing up global prices
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/China-hoards-over-half-the-world-s-grain-pushing-up-global-prices 

Global Supply Chain Woes Persist

Pandemic caused perfect storm for supply chain crisis, experts say
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/dec/23/pandemic-vulnerabilities-supply-chain-model
 
Asia’s factory workers at the sharp end of the west’s supply chain crisis
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2021/dec/23/asias-factory-workers-at-the-sharp-end-of-the-wests-supply-chain-crisis 

India's Big Infrastructure Push

India is on the edge of an energy and infrastructure revolution
https://www.macquarie.com/us/en/perspectives/india-is-on-the-edge-of-an-energy-and-infrastructure-evolution.html
Related:
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20211102-greening-deserts-india-powers-renewable-ambitions-with-solar-push
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/22/green-india-energy-climate/
https://www.livemint.com/industry/energy/greening-the-deserts-how-india-is-powering-pm-modi-s-solar-ambitions-11635848027517.html
 
How Modi govt is building a new landscape in Old India
https://theprint.in/opinion/how-modi-govt-is-building-a-new-landscape-in-old-india/620968/
You could say it all started with the Vajpayee government’s Golden Quadrilateral highway programme, followed by the Manmohan Singh government planning a green energy push, blueprinting the freight corridors and even conceptualising the first bullet train service. But it is unquestionably the Modi government that has taken the powerful combination of infrastructure investment and welfarism to their current levels of ambition.
 
India's Modi Brings Tap Water to Millions as Supplies Shrink
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/21/world/asia/india-water-modi.html
 
Modi Says India Can’t Afford to Go Slow on New Infrastructure
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-13/modi-says-india-can-t-afford-to-go-slow-on-new-infrastructure 

LONG-TERM CHALLENGES:

India’s Stalled Rise: How the State Has Stifled Growth
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/india/2021-12-14/indias-stalled-rise

Turkey's Self-Inflicted Economic Woes

The Religious Roots of Turkey’s Currency Crisis
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-religious-roots-of-turkey-currency-crisis-lira-value-price-monetary-economic-policy-islam-banks-erdogan-quran-interest-rates-11640807383
Related:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/Interview/Turkey-weighs-inflation-protected-lira-bonds-to-bolster-currency

What’s wrong with Turkey’s economy? ‘Erdoganomics.’
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/12/23/turkey-economy-erdogan-management/

Making Turkey great again: Erdogan throws out the rule book
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/Making-Turkey-great-again-Erdogan-throws-out-the-rule-book
Ankara has pursued geopolitical power at all costs, but now the bill is due 

How Erdonomics Sank Turkey
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/turkey-economic-crisis-erdonomics-by-anne-o-krueger-2021-12

Shein and the Rise of Ultra-Fast Shopping

How Shein beat Amazon at its own game – and reinvented fast fashion
https://www.theguardian.com/fashion/2021/dec/21/how-shein-beat-amazon-at-its-own-game-and-reinvented-fast-fashion
By connecting China’s garment factories with western gen-Z customers, Shein ushered in a new era of ‘ultra-fast’ shopping 

Investing versus Gambling

The Paranoid Style in American Investing
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-22/the-paranoid-style-in-american-investing-in-2021
In 2021, financial prophets and online echo chambers warped stocks and crypto, inflated a bubble and opened the era of identity investing.
 
The Sports Gambling Gold Rush Is Absolutely Off the Charts
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-opinion-online-sports-betting-future-of-american-gambling/ 

The Good Life

Three countries provide lessons for improving health and promoting happiness
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2021/12/pdf/Country-cases.pdf 

Profiles of Leading Economists

Amy Finkelstein
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2021/12/pdf/PIE-Data-Driven.pdf
Rohini Pande
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2021/06/pdf/profile-of-economist-rohini-pande-yale-university.pdf
Lisa D. Cook
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2020/12/pdf/profile-of-economist-lisa-cook-michigan-state-university.pdf
Mariana Mazzucato
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2020/09/pdf/economics-agitator-mariana-mazzucato.pdf
Assaf Razin
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2021/03/pdf/profile-of-economist-assaf-razin-telaviv-university.pdf
Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banerjee
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2020/06/pdf/MIT-poverty-fighters-abhijit-banerjee-and-esther-duflo.pdf
Edward Glaeser
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2019/12/pdf/profile-of-harvard-economist-edward-glaeser.pdf
 
Related:
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2021/02/profiles-of-new-generation-of-star.html 

A Nice Christmas Story

A Box of Cash, a Secret Donor and a Big Lift for Some N.Y.C. Students
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/21/nyregion/city-college-mystery-donor.html 

US Economic Outlook

How the 2020s Economy Could Resemble the 1980s
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/21/upshot/how-the-2020s-economy-could-resemble-the-1980s.html

Lingering Virus, Lasting Inflation: A Fed Official Explains Her Pivot
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/21/business/economy/mary-daly-federal-reserve-inflation.html
Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, wanted to withdraw economic help slowly. Now, she might support a rate increase as soon as March.

The economy is going great. Employment is up and so are stocks and housing prices, but political divisiveness is undermining everything.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/12/20/economy-2021-inequality-divisiveness/
 
Portraits from inside the wild, messy, overheating and confounding economy of 2021
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2021/economy-2021/ 

Biden Presidency - A Tough Year

Why Joe Biden’s woes threaten calamity for the Democrats and the US republic.
https://www.newstatesman.com/long-reads/2021/12/the-stalled-presidency

Chinese Aggression

China’s Spat with Lithuania Is a Test for the World’s Democracies
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-21/china-s-spat-with-lithuania-is-a-test-for-the-world-s-democracies

China's Global Hybrid War
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-xi-jinping-three-warfares-by-brahma-chellaney-2021-12
 
Pentagon Worries About Chinese Buildup Near India
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/12/15/pentagon-india-china-border-buildup/ 

China Is a Declining Power—and That’s the Problem
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/24/china-great-power-united-states/

Social Science - Interesting Items

Routine Maintenance - Embracing habit in an automated world
https://harpers.org/archive/2022/01/routine-maintenance-embracing-habit-in-an-automated-world-meghan-ogieblyn/

The Economic Cost of Solitude
https://voxeu.org/article/alone-and-lonely-economic-cost-solitude
Western countries are facing an ‘epidemic of solitude’. Though its impact on mental health has attracted considerable attention, little is known about its economic effects. This column distinguishes between two forms of solitude – loneliness and living alone – and studies their influence on the economic performance of European regions at the local level. Greater shares of people living alone drive economic growth, whereas an increase in loneliness has damaging economic consequences. Though the relationship is complex and non-linear, a region with more lonely people will experience lower aggregate economic growth. 

South Dakota and Wyoming - US Tax Havens

The ‘Cowboy Cocktail’: How Wyoming became one of the world’s top tax havens for the wealthy
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2021/wyoming-trusts-finance-pandora-papers/

The Man Who Turned a State into America’s Switzerland
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-10-16/south-dakota-wouldn-t-be-a-u-s-switzerland-without-bill-janklow
How “Wild Bill” Janklow, a very creative governor of South Dakota, built a financial center catering to the world’s most powerful banks and wealthiest clients. 

FOREIGN MONEY SECRETLY FLOODS U.S. TAX HAVENS. SOME OF IT IS TAINTED.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2021/booming-us-tax-haven-industry/
 
How money has flowed from the sugar fields of the Dominican Republic to the burgeoning tax haven of South Dakota
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2021/central-romana-tax-haven-south-dakota/

The United States of Dirty Money
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/10/how-south-dakota-became-haven-dirty-money/620298/
How landlocked South Dakota became one of the world’s hottest destinations for offshore funds.

Update - Chilean Elections and Turkish Crisis

Leftist Gabriel Boric, 35, wins Chile's presidential election
https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/19/americas/chile-election-gabriel-boric-intl-nk/index.html
Related:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/19/world/americas/chile-president-election.html
 
Chile Assets Tumble After Left-Wing Boric’s Presidential Win
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-20/chilean-assets-tumble-after-left-wing-boric-s-presidential-win
 
Lira Slides After Erdogan Says Islam Demands Lower Rates
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-19/turkey-s-erdogan-says-islam-demands-lower-rates-and-so-does-he
 
Turkey Can’t Take Much More of Its Currency Crisis
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-19/turkey-can-t-take-much-more-of-its-currency-crisis 

Sunday Readings - International Affairs

The Cold War is over. Why do we still treat Russia like the Evil Empire?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/12/17/russia-united-states-cold-war/

Germany faces pressure to risk its energy future to get back at Putin. That’s a tough choice.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/12/20/nord-stream-pipeline-germany-scholz/

In Today’s Wars, Everything Is a Weapon
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-19/max-hastings-russia-and-china-show-everything-can-be-weaponized
 
Is nuclear energy green? France and Germany lead opposing camps.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/12/18/nuclear-energy-climate-france-germany/
 
Global Democracy Is Doing Fine. U.S. Democracy Is in Trouble.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-19/niall-ferguson-destroying-u-s-democracy-is-a-bipartisan-effort 

Debating India's Economic Future

Constitutionalism And India's Economic Future

(The Q&A session that follows the presentation is quite good. This shouldn't be surprising given that Chennai is the cultural and intellectual center of Southern India and audiences at public talks are typically quite smart)
 
Raghuram Rajan is the Katherine Dusak Miller Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago's Booth School.
https://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/raghuram-rajan

Fed's Pivot and Interest Rate Hikes in 2022

The Fed’s Pivot Is the Opposite of Hawkish
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-20/the-fed-s-pivot-is-the-opposite-of-hawkish

The Fed’s words still don’t measure up to the challenge of inflation
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/12/16/lawrence-summers-fed-inflation/
 
Federal Reserve Makes a Welcome Pivot but Has More to Do
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-16/federal-reserve-makes-a-welcome-pivot-but-has-more-to-do
 
The Bond Market Isn’t Buying Fed’s Sketch of Rate Hike Plans
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-18/the-bond-market-isn-t-buying-fed-s-sketch-of-rate-hike-plans 

Why Jerome Powell Pivoted on Inflation
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/15/upshot/jerome-powell-inflation-pivot.html

Federal Reserve Turns Hawkish Now to Avoid Real Pain Later
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-15/fed-decision-central-bank-turns-hawkish-now-to-avoid-real-pain-later

Paul Krugman’s Mea Culpa on Inflation

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/16/opinion/inflation-economy-2021.html

Political Instability

‘We are closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe,’ new study says
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/12/17/how-civil-wars-start-barbara-walter-research/ 

Is America Ready for Omicron?

America Is Not Ready for Omicron
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/12/america-omicron-variant-surge-booster/621027/
The new variant poses a far graver threat at the collective level than the individual one—the kind of test that the U.S. has repeatedly failed. 

Life After Quitting

Life after quitting: What happened next to the workers who left their jobs
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/12/16/quit-job-what-came-next/ 

US Public Debt Explosion

How U.S. federal debt got so big
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2021/us-debt-growth/ 

The Red-Hot US Housing Market

A New Year Brings a New Surge in Housing Prices
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-15/housing-market-reheats-for-the-new-year-on-soaring-rents
People are ricocheting between skyrocketing rents and a red-hot home market, upending old seasonal patterns as job and wage growth drive a new economic cycle.
 
Related:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2021/investors-rental-foreclosure/ 

Long-Term Unemployed

Jobless for a Year? That Might Be Less of a Problem Now.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/15/business/economy/employment-resume-gaps.html
People who were out of work for a while have typically found it much harder to get a job. The pandemic may have changed how employers view people who have been unemployed for months or years. 

Running the Economy Hot - The Inflation-Unemployment Trade-off

Inflation Jeopardizes the Fed’s Goal for Inclusive Employment
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-14/fed-chair-powell-s-goal-for-inclusive-employment-jeopardized-by-inflation

No, the Fed Can’t Make People Go Back to Work
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-14/the-fed-can-t-make-people-return-to-work

Related:
My piece from Feb 2021 - The pros and cons of running the economy hot
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/536691-the-pros-and-cons-of-running-the-economy-hot 

Xi's ‘Common Prosperity’ Agenda

China’s Big New Idea
Why Xi Jinping won’t stop talking about “common prosperity”
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/12/china-getting-worried-about-income-inequality/620993/
 
The new 'common prosperity' doctrine hearkens back to the Mao era
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/Bombard-the-headquarters-Xi-Jinping-s-crackdown-keeps-growing 

Related:

The West needs to understand that China's people are not a monolith
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/The-West-needs-to-understand-that-China-s-people-are-not-a-monolith

Climate Change has Destabilized the Earth’s Poles

Climate change has destabilized the Earth’s poles, putting the rest of the planet in peril
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2021/12/14/climate-change-arctic-antarctic-poles/

Arctic temperature soared to an unprecedented 100 degrees in 2020, scientists confirm
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/12/14/arctic-temperature-hottest/

Rising From the Antarctic, a Climate Alarm
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/12/13/climate/antarctic-climate-change.html 

Related:
https://theconversation.com/2021-arctic-report-card-reveals-a-human-story-of-cascading-disruptions-extreme-events-and-global-connections-172136

Turkish Economy - Erdogan's Policy Errors

How Did Turkey’s Economy Go So Wrong?
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/14/business/economy/turkey-inflation-economy-lira.html
Even before the pandemic, Turkey was trying to ward off financial meltdown. The crisis has accelerated as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has doubled down on his unorthodox policies. 

Inflationary Wave Changes Political Terrain for Right-Wing Populists
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/13/business/inflation-turkey-brazil-hungary.html

Inflation Worriers

Worried About Inflation? Here’s What That May Reveal About You.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/14/business/economy/inflation-age-region-education-income.html
Age, region, education and income all influence what people think consumer prices will be a few years from now. And that creates a policy puzzle.

Chile's Elections - Implications for Democracy in Latin America

Chile’s election will define its national identity and political struggles all over Latin America
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/12/13/chiles-election-will-define-its-national-identity-political-struggles-all-over-latin-america/

Populism Has Killed Latin America’s Once-Powerful ‘Technopols’
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-03/populism-has-killed-latin-america-s-once-powerful-finance-ministers 

Why Has Chile Embraced the Extremes?
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/chile-presidential-election-political-extremes-by-andres-velasco-2021-12

US Diplomatic Failure in Afghanistan

The Secret History of the U.S. Diplomatic Failure in Afghanistan
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/12/20/the-secret-history-of-the-us-diplomatic-failure-in-afghanistan 

The Man Who Predicted Climate Change

How Syukuro Manabe Predicted Climate Change
https://www.newyorker.com/news/persons-of-interest/the-man-who-predicted-climate-change
In the nineteen-sixties, Syukuro Manabe drew a graph that foretold our world today—and what’s to come. 

Foreign Ownership of US Real Estate Assets

Yellen Says U.S. May Be the Best Place to Launder Dirty Money
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-09/yellen-says-u-s-may-be-the-best-place-to-launder-dirty-money
 
Biden Eyes Tighter Rules for Shell-Company Real Estate Purchases
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-06/biden-eyes-shell-company-real-estate-purchases-for-tighter-rules
 
U.S. Housing as a Global Safe Asset: Evidence from China Shocks
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3965183 

Demographics and Covid Mortality Rates

As U.S. Nears 800,000 Virus Deaths, 1 of Every 100 Older Americans Has Perished
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/13/us/covid-deaths-elderly-americans.html
They are among the most vaccinated groups, but people 65 and older make up about three-quarters of the nation’s coronavirus death toll. 

Choice of College Major and the Gender Wage Gap

College Majors, Occupations, and the Gender Wage Gap
https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.35.4.223
Abstract
The paper assesses gender differences in pre-labor market specialization among the college-educated and highlights how those differences have evolved over time. Women choose majors with lower potential earnings (based on male wages associated with those majors) and subsequently sort into occupations with lower potential earnings given their major choice. These differences have narrowed over time, but recent cohorts of women still choose majors and occupations with lower potential earnings. Differences in undergraduate major choice explain a substantive portion of gender wage gaps for the college-educated above and beyond simply controlling for occupation. Collectively, our results highlight the importance of understanding gender differences in the mapping between college major and occupational sorting when studying the evolution of gender differences in labor market outcomes over time.

Policies to Deal with Trade Dislocation

Washington Hasn’t Learned the Real Lesson of the China Shock
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-10/american-domestic-economic-policy-shows-failure-to-respond-to-china-shock
Related:
https://gps.ucsd.edu/_files/faculty/hanson/hanson_publications_china-shock_102016.pdf
https://www.nber.org/papers/w29401
https://www.nber.org/papers/w29241
 
Misreading China's WTO Record Hurts Global Trade
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/misreading-china-wto-record-hurts-global-trade-by-shang-jin-wei-2021-12