Attention Economy


Sunday, April 30, 2017

Corporate Earnings versus Domestic Economic Growth

Increasingly, for many American firms, global sales matter more:
The CNBC report notes:
“So far this earnings season, the less a U.S. company is exposed to America, the better its results.
S&P 500 companies which generate more than half their revenue overseas are posting first quarter earnings growth of 19.9 percent, on average, double that of companies that conduct a majority of their business domestically, according to FactSet.”

Saturday, April 29, 2017

ESPN and the Business of Sports

ESPN’s woes are largely self-inflicted:
Bloomberg’s Joe Nocera notes:
“Only a tiny handful of cable channels get more than $2 a month per cable subscriber; ESPN charges over $7 a month per subscriber. When you throw in the rest of the ESPN channels, that number approaches $10.
At the same time, the content providers -- the professional sports leagues and college conferences -- were every bit as ruthless in their dealings with ESPN. The $1.9 billion a year ESPN pays the NFL (for one game a week, and usually a lousy one at that) is twice what any other network pays to air pro football. It signed a 12-year, $7.3 billion contract for the rights to the college football playoffs. The NBA costs it $1.4 billion a year. Its new TV deal with the Big Ten will cost 

Progressive Policy Fixes for the US Economy

Silicon Valley Congressman’s interesting proposals:

Related:
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/04/economic-inequality/524610/

An Upside-Down World

The Changing of the Global Economic Guard by Edward Luce
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/04/china-economy-populism/523989/

A World Turned Inside Out by Stephen S. Roach
Yale economist Stephen Roach notes:
“…persistent divergence between developed and developing economies has now reached a critical point. From 1980 to 2007, the advanced economies accounted for an average of 59% of world GDP (measured in terms of purchasing power parity), whereas the combined share of developing and emerging economies was 41%. That was then. According to the IMF’s latest forecast, those shares will completely reverse by 2018: 41% for the advanced economies and 59% for the developing world.
The pendulum of world economic growth has swung dramatically from the so-called advanced countries to the emerging and developing economies”.

Global Growth Hotspots - Rapidly Growth Cities in Emerging Markets
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-29/the-global-growth-hotspots-of-the-future-are-here

Related:
Kishore Mahbubani (Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore) on the rising significance of ASEAN:
http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/my-new-love-south-east-asia

Economics, Policies and Human Behavior

Under the Trump Tax Plan, We Might All Want to Become Corporations by NEIL IRWIN:

To Help Tackle Inequality, Remember the Advantages You’ve Had by SENDHIL MULLAINATHAN
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/28/upshot/income-equality-isnt-just-about-headwinds-tailwinds-count-too.html

Thursday, April 27, 2017

[MUST READ] – The False Promise of Trade Protectionism

Douglas Irwin’s Foreign Affairs piece is a great read: The False Promise of Protectionism

Related:
Trump’s Protectionist Policies

An informative piece from Megan McArdle: Trump Fixates on Canadian Softwood. You Shouldn't.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-04-25/trump-fixates-on-canadian-softwood-you-shouldn-t

UPDATE: Milk Wars Curdled U.S.-Canada Relationship Long Ago by Stephen Mihm
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-04-29/milk-wars-curdled-u-s-canada-relationship-long-ago

Prices and Consumer Surplus

Ability to rapidly change prices affects both businesses and consumers:
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/05/how-online-shopping-makes-suckers-of-us-all/521448/

Central Banking - History Lesson

A timely piece from The Economist:
http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21721354-contemporary-criticisms-central-banks-echo-debates-times-past-history-central

Tax Cuts and Economic Growth

Tax Cuts and Economic Growth:

Useful Brookings Study:
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/09_Effects_Income_Tax_Changes_Economic_Growth_Gale_Samwick.pdf

A few good ideas included in the Trump Tax Plan:
“For individuals, the plan would:
·         reduce the number of tax brackets from seven to three and cut the top marginal rate from 39.6 to 35 percent
·         double the standard deduction, while eliminating most tax breaks except for home ownership and charitable deductions

Trump Tax Plan - Winners and Losers:

Saturday, April 22, 2017

Principal-Agent Theory, Harvard Business School and the Birth of the Modern Corporate Ethos

An interesting new book (“The Golden Passport” by Duff McDonald) makes the case that HBS bears responsibility for many of corporate America’s ills. The following Newsweek piece provides a great review of how corporate America evolved over the past four decades:
“By the late 1970s, after nearly three-quarters of a century of existence, Harvard Business School had carved out a nice little niche in the management universe. It had proved itself a dependable supplier of prescreened and highly motivated graduates to big business. HBS was still a dependable supplier of highly motivated graduates in the 1980s, but they weren’t going to big business anymore. They were headed to Wall Street and consulting. HBS also continued to put a high gloss on the management myth of the day, but those myths were increasingly finance-related, in particular the merits of shareholder capitalism. And it continued to deliver pseudo-intellectual capital that practitioners could use to justify their decisions. In the 1980s, HBS had abandoned its mission of trying to educate an enlightened managerial class. Instead, it threw its lot in with Wall Street as it was dismantling the edifice of American industry HBS had helped build. HBS had nurtured the professional manager from his birth and then helped to kill him.”

Related: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-business-school-boondoggle-1492809680

Herd-Like Behavior and Market Sentiment

There is a strong possibility that once again the IMF growth forecast will prove to be overly optimistic:
IMF WEO April 2017 Update

Related:
http://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2015/07/imfs-latest-global-growth-projections.html

Friday, April 21, 2017

Profits and Competition



UPDATE:
Political Bias Towards Dominant Existing Businesses – Not the Best Way to Boost Competition
http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/the-real-trump-agenda-helping-big-business

Threats Posed by Economic Illiteracy

Columbia University economist Jeffrey Sachs warns of the risks posed by economic illiteracy:
https://www.project-syndicate.org/print/trump-economic-illiteracy-trade-war-by-jeffrey-d-sachs-2017-04

Related:
Global Supply Chains and Populist Rhetoric
A timely piece from Adam Davidson:
“The U.S. does very well in the intellectual work—the engineering, industrial design, marketing, and distribution—that goes into creating, manufacturing, and selling products. Our Chinese-made iPhones and apparel return much higher profit margins to American designers than to Chinese manufacturers. Many firms now run their design, marketing, and engineering work in the U.S. and move the manufacturing abroad. This makes perfect economic sense, but it adds to the core challenge of the U.S. economy: there are increasing opportunities for people with the kinds of education and skill that lead to new ideas, but there are diminished opportunities for those who turn those ideas into physical products.”

Thursday, April 20, 2017

Monday, April 17, 2017

Funding Schools – Private Sector versus the Government

An important lesson in the provision of a public good:
“What much fewer people realize is that the argument over “school of choice” is only the latest chapter in a decades-long political struggle between two models of freedom—one based on market choice and the other based on democratic participation. Neoliberals like DeVos often assume that organizing public spaces like a market must lead to beneficial outcomes. But in doing so, advocates of school of choice ignore the political ramifications of the marketization of shared goods like the educational system.”

Related:
How the Financing of Colleges May Lead to Disaster! By Rana Foroohar

Populism and Authoritarianism

What drove Trump voters? [Insights from detailed DATA ANALYSIS]

Turkey’s democracy suffers a huge blow

French far-left candidate rises to challenges the status quo

Related:

Saturday, April 15, 2017

International Affairs - Interesting Items

India’s Economic and Governance Reform - Two Steps Forward, One Step Back (or is it the other way around?):

Japan – Demographics and Immigration

Brexit – Post-Mortem
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/12/foreign-states-may-have-interfered-in-brexit-vote-report-says

Marine Le Pen and the French Elections

Rethinking Economics

Interview with Stanford economist Anat Admati [Highly Recommended]
“The Sense That the System Is Rigged Relates Directly to Governments’ Failure to Address Inequality and Concentration”


The University of Chicago worries about a lack of competition: Its economists used to champion big firms, but the mood has shifted
http://www.economist.com/news/business/21720657-its-economists-used-champion-big-firms-mood-has-shifted-university-chicago