Attention Economy


Friday, August 28, 2015

Emerging Markets and the Fed

WSJ editorial is right on the mark –
“Emerging markets are often subject to cyclical capital flows. The Fed exacerbated this beginning in late 2010 with its second and third rounds of quantitative easing, in which it bought more than $2 trillion in U.S. Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.
The QE policy succeeded in driving down the value of the U.S. dollar, which had appreciated during the 2008-09 crisis as a safe haven. But it did so by making the dollar into a funding currency for investments overseas. Investors borrowed dollars at low rates, converted them into other currencies and bought assets with a higher return, a phenomenon known as a carry trade.”

Related:
A timely piece from The Economist –

“First, China believes the yuan is overvalued compared to the currencies of its trading partners, and the central bank is committed to liberalize controls and allow market forces to play a larger role in day-to-day trading. This is the optimistic reading.
Second, China is a victim of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing, which flooded the world with cheap dollar liquidity and now is poised to spark crises in emerging markets as it raises interest rates. This would mean China is trying to delink from the rising dollar more than it is trying to devalue the yuan.”

Princeton economist Alan Blinder’s commentary – “Overselling the Importance of When the Interest-Rate Rise Begins”