Insider Trading Concerns

Lucrative bets that anticipated Trump's policy surprises warrant scrutiny, experts say
https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/lucrative-bets-that-anticipated-trumps-policy-surprises-warrant-scrutiny-experts-2026-03-29/
 
The Well-Timed Trades Made Moments Before Trump’s Policy Surprises
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/the-well-timed-trades-made-moments-before-trumps-policy-surprises-36e6963a
The president’s critics have raised concerns about the action in oil futures, S&P 500 ETF options and prediction markets.
 
Insider trading concerns around oil and military moves are on the rise. Can anyone police the bets?
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/insider-trading-prediction-markets-trump-rules-rcna265452
 
Pete Hegseth’s broker looked to buy defense fund before Iran attack
https://www.ft.com/content/744ea8dc-6d93-4fe9-a5e3-36de4f5d06db 

Long-Term Care Insurance

Many People Will Need Long-Term Care, but Most Don’t Have Insurance to Cover It
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/27/your-money/long-term-care-insurance.html 

Claudia Goldin helped WNBA Players Negotiate a Better Contract

WNBA Players Had an Ace Up Their Sleeve in Pay Negotiations: A Nobel Laureate
https://www.wsj.com/economy/wnba-players-had-an-ace-up-their-sleeve-in-pay-negotiations-a-nobel-laureate-c5040a28
Harvard economist Claudia Goldin helped WNBA players win a nearly 400% raise. Starting this season, players’ average salary will top $580,000. 

Hastening China's Rise

The Iran war will cement China’s superpower status
https://www.ft.com/content/47edd17c-366f-42e4-b0cf-c20e065210d2
Beijing’s industrial prowess positions it for economic and diplomatic gains. 

America Is Now a Rogue Superpower
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/03/trump-us-power-iran/686567/

Workplace Blues

How Working in America Became So Joyless
https://www.wsj.com/business/how-working-in-america-became-so-joyless-a1976fd2
The loss of small perks and rise of AI have conspired to strip work of all joy, making the office “feel like a funeral.” 

Financial Engineering versus Stakeholder Capitalism

Kraft Heinz and the cost of narrow capitalism by Paul Polman
https://fortune.com/2026/03/14/kraft-heinz-narrow-capitalism-warren-buffett-megamerger-gone-wrong/
The deeper story that must be addressed though, is of a company run for a handful of owners at the expense of the millions of customers, employees, suppliers, and communities who made its success possible. This is a case study in the failure of shareholder primacy. When you strip out investment and trust in return for a quick payday, you lose the very engine of growth and resilience that capitalism depends upon. A little pruning can stimulate growth. But hack at the roots and collapse is inevitable.  

Backlash Against Tech in the Classroom

Chromebook Remorse: Tech Backlash at Schools Extends Beyond Phones
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/29/technology/chromebook-remorse-kansas-school-laptops.html
No more YouTube or video games on school laptops. Textbooks and pencils are back. Some seventh graders say they prefer learning offline. 

Stocks, Bonds, and Private Credit

Battered by Stock Losses, Investors Find Little Relief in Bonds
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/battered-by-stock-losses-investors-find-little-relief-in-bonds-af3f8a14
Inflation fears and forced selling have led to a sharp increase in Treasury yields.
 
Three Reasons the Stock Market Can Endure the War
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/three-reasons-the-stock-market-can-endure-the-war-23c5f966
So far the fall in share prices has been small given the scale of disruption. Here are some of the supports keeping them aloft.
 

This Is Starting to Look Like a Slow-Motion Bank Run

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/06/opinion/banking-crisis-private-credit.html

Is Another Financial Crisis Lurking in Private Credit?
https://www.wsj.com/economy/is-another-financial-crisis-lurking-in-private-credit-cad379b1
The asset class is fast-growing, opaque and intertwined with banks but lacks the scale and leverage that cashiered the economy in 2007. 

Private-Credit Wobbles Could Prove Perilous for Trump
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/30/business/private-credit-risks-trump-administration.html
The Trump administration is poised to broaden access to risky investments that are showing signs of strain.

What Banks Stand to Lose from the Private-Credit Mess

https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/what-banks-stand-to-lose-from-the-private-credit-mess-194a5338
Potential losses from loans to private-credit funds aren’t the only concern.

Risk of a Global Food Crisis

The longer Trump’s war drags on, the worse the coming global food crisis
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/03/27/longer-trump-war-drags-on-worse-coming-global-food-crisis/ 

End of Market Complacency?

Market Dive Points to Wall Street’s Alarm Over War
https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/market-dive-points-to-wall-streets-growing-alarm-over-iran-war-f16d7f98
The recent selloff pulled the S&P 500 down for a fifth straight week and dragged the Nasdaq and Dow industrials into correction territory.
 
Stocks Slide to 5th Weekly Loss as Investors Lose Patience with Iran War
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/27/business/iran-war-stock-market-investors.html
 
The Oil Shocks of the ’70s Changed the World. Will the War in Iran Do the Same?
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/28/business/oil-shocks-1970s-iran-war.html 

Almost everything is going wrong for markets right now
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/almost-everything-is-going-wrong-for-markets-right-now-100005327.html
 
'Magnificent 7' stocks wipe more than $850 billion in value as stock market sell-off hits AI winners hard
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/magnificent-7-stocks-wipe-more-than-850-billion-in-value-as-stock-market-sell-off-hits-ai-winners-hard-213921360.html

Questioning Fed's Credibility

Can the Federal Reserve Please Shut Up?
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/can-the-federal-reserve-please-shut-up-4ac43808
The central bank’s faulty economic predictions hurt markets and the Fed’s own institutional credibility.
 
Resurgent Inflation Tests Faith in Fed’s Willingness to Tame It
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/27/business/inflation-federal-reserve-iran-war.html
The war in the Middle East risks worsening an inflation problem that the Federal Reserve has struggled for years to subdue. 

Trump, Powell and the Perils Ahead for the Fed
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-powell-and-the-perils-ahead-for-the-fed-90852739
The president’s meddling with the central bank’s independence spells trouble in the future.

Fed's faith in anchored inflation expectations may be coming under stress
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/feds-faith-anchored-inflation-expectations-may-be-coming-under-stress-2026-03-30/

Chokepoints and Geopolitics

Welcome to a Multidimensional Economic Disaster
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/2026/03/ai-boom-polycrisis/686559/
The AI boom wasn’t built for the polycrisis.
 
The Global Economy’s Many Chokepoints
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/addressing-single-points-of-failure-across-the-global-economy-by-michael-spence-2026-03
 
Interdependence Bites Back
https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/iran-war-tariffs-risk-turning-economic-interdependence-into-a-liability-by-sebnem-kalemli-ozcan-2026-03 

Can you Concentrate?

There’s a Good Reason Why You Can’t Concentrate
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/27/opinion/technology-mental-fitness-cognitive.html 

Finance Research Relevant to Stock Investors

Can CAPE Ratios Really Predict Stock Returns? New Research Says Yes
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/can-cape-ratios-really-predict-stock-returns--new-research-says-yes-86391.html
 
Why 'New' Value Stocks Outperform: The Hidden Driver of Value Investing
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/the-hidden-driver-of-value-investing--why--new--value-stocks-outperform-86390.html

An 800-Year-Old Math Principle May Help Find Bottom to S&P 500’s Rout
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/800-old-math-principle-may-112618053.html 

The Global Cost of the Israeli-American Military Adventure

How Trump’s Iran War Could Torch the Global Economy
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-financial-page/how-trumps-iran-war-could-torch-the-global-economy
A conflict that was supposed to be brief has sent oil prices soaring and raised the risk of a worldwide recession.

Energy-Price Shock Hits a World Already Buried in Debt
https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/energy-price-shock-hits-a-world-already-buried-in-debt-9e93e0f0
World governments had more than $100 trillion in public debt when the Iran war began—limiting their ability to cushion the effects of energy-price shocks.

Asia Is Getting Crushed Between Oil Prices and the Dollar
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/25/business/iran-war-dollar-rupee-won.html
From India to Southeast Asia to South Korea, currencies are crumbling as governments race to secure fuel that is priced in American money. 

Iran oil shock sets US Treasury seismograph twitching
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/iran-oil-shock-sets-us-treasury-seismograph-twitching-2026-03-26/
The Iran oil shock has upended rate forecasts and roiled U.S. Treasury markets - driving volatility to its highest in nearly a year and forcing selling that is taking a serious toll on liquidity. The ​risk is that the tremors spread further.

The everything shock
https://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/economy-international-politics/2026/03/the-everything-shock-iran-war-oil
From the price of food to the AI industry, the Iran war will transform the world as we know it.

AI and Consciousness

Is AI Conscious? It Depends What Consciousness Is
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/is-ai-conscious-it-depends-what-consciousness-is-4f8dd121
Philosophy and theology are now joined by machine intelligence in shining a light on what is human. 

Related:

Does A.I. Need a Constitution?
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2026/03/30/does-ai-need-a-constitution
A new set of precepts is meant to make the chatbot Claude wise, decent, and safe. It also marks a striking transfer of public responsibility from constitutional government to private tech firms.

AI and the Software Stocks Selloff

1 Theory on Why the Software Stock Sell-Off Could Get Even Worse
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/1-theory-why-software-stock-132300999.html
 
Why The Hype Around AI Risk in Software Lending Misses the Point
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/why-the-hype-around-ai-risk-in-software-lending-misses-the-point-86375.html 

Key Stocks Under Pressure:

Salesforce, Inc. (CRM)

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRM/

ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW)

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NOW/

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/

Workday, Inc. (WDAY)

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WDAY/

Risky Investment Bets

Why Are Young People Taking So Many Unwise Financial Risks?
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/why-are-young-people-taking-so-many-unwise-financial-risks-86349.html
 
Related: 
Americans' Finances are Improving - But Some Still Feel Behind and are Turning to Prediction Markets, Sports Betting and Crypto to Catch Up, According to Northwestern Mutual's 2026 Planning & Progress Study 

Will the US Dollar Maintain its Global Supremacy?

The US currency is under attack like never before
https://spectator.com/article/the-us-currency-is-under-attack-like-never-before/
 
The Decline and Fall of the Dollar Empire
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/dollar-international-role-trajectory-resembles-roman-denarius-by-barry-eichengreen-2026-04

Trump’s war in Iran threatens to topple the dollar
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/03/25/trumps-war-in-iran-threatens-to-topple-the-dollar/
The Gulf conflict is challenging assumptions that underpin the US currency’s dominance.

US Institutional Decay Is Threatening Global Finance
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-attacks-on-fed-sec-ftc-independence-threaten-global-financial-system-by-jayant-sinha-2026-03
Even through tumultuous political cycles, the Federal Reserve, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Federal Trade Commission have been able to signal that US markets operate under clear, impersonal, reliably enforced rules. But this is no longer true, and the implications for the rest of the world are dire. 

Private Credit Woes

The Private-Credit Industry’s Trouble: Surging Redemptions, Slower Fundraising
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/the-private-credit-industrys-trouble-surging-redemptions-slower-fundraising-2f209383
Investors are debating what the data shows about the health of private credit.

New Limits on Investors and a Debt Downgrade Add to Private Credit Woes
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/24/business/moodys-private-credit-downgrade.html
Investors are concerned about the health of the industry, which ballooned over the past decade.
 
New Bank Regulations Could Favor Loans to Private Credit
https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/new-bank-regulations-could-favor-loans-to-private-credit-674e1106
Proposed changes to bank capital requirements risk adding to incentives to lend to other lenders. 

Best Employers

Finding the Best Place to Work: A Look at Careers at More Than 1,700 Companies
https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/finding-the-best-place-to-work-a-look-at-careers-at-more-than-1-700-companies-736ff9fd
A new analysis shows which workplaces provide the best earnings potential and professional growth—overall and for your specific job. 

2026 Graduates Face a Tough Job Market

Young U.S. Graduates Face the Grimmest Job Market in Years
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/24/business/economy/college-graduates-job-market-hiring.html
Artificial intelligence could reshape work, but for now a low-hire, low-fire labor market is the main impediment for young people seeking. 

Why College Graduates Feel Betrayed
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/27/business/college-graduates-economy-unemployment-.html
Their anger goes far beyond the recent rise of unemployment and the looming threat of A.I. 

Economics of Regulating AI

The Economics of Regulating AI
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-economics-of-regulating-ai-7773e722
Government often tries to make rules for industries it doesn’t understand. There’s a better way. 

The AI Trilemma: How to Regulate a Revolutionary Technology
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/ai-trilemma 

‘Woke’ AI Feud Escalates Between Pentagon and Anthropic
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/woke-ai-spat-escalates-between-pentagon-and-anthropic-433b7c5c
The Pentagon might ask contractors and vendors to certify that they don’t use Anthropic’s Claude amid tensions over how its tools are used.
 
Land Grab for Data Centers Is One More Obstacle to Much-Needed Housing
https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/data-center-land-deals-housing-shortage-81ea6e09
Resistance grows to more land sales in Northern Virginia. “They’d rather have homes than data,” said a former Prince William County supervisor.

AI's Potential Impact on the Labor Market

AI is starting to look terrifying if you have a job
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ai-is-starting-to-look-terrifying-if-you-have-a-job-123053638.html
 
How AI is reshaping the business of law
https://www.ft.com/content/b2c3e8b6-cc2f-46dc-808f-d237bfacbde8

Research: How AI Is Changing the Labor Market

https://hbr.org/2026/03/research-how-ai-is-changing-the-labor-market

 

Redeployment plans to slow hiring: Here's what bank CEOs are saying AI is doing to their head counts

https://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-citi-goldman-bofa-wells-how-ai-impact-headcounts-2026

 

Hybrid jobs: How AI is rewriting work in finance

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/hybrid-jobs-how-ai-is-rewriting-work-in-finance/

 

AI Is Reshaping Accounting Jobs by Doing the “Boring” Stuff

https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/insights/ai-reshaping-accounting-jobs-doing-boring-stuff

Streamlining routine bookkeeping gives accountants more time to help clients and handle complex tasks.

 

How will accountants learn new skills when AI does the work?

https://www.journalofaccountancy.com/issues/2026/mar/how-will-accountants-learn-new-skills-when-ai-does-the-work/
 
This Time, the Hype Around Self-Driving Cars Feels Real
https://www.wsj.com/tech/this-time-the-hype-around-self-driving-cars-feels-real-e37f2e7f
A new excitement is building for autonomous vehicles to become mainstream.
 
What Young Workers Are Doing to AI-Proof Themselves
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/ai-jobs-young-people-careers-14282284
They’ve got their whole careers ahead of them, and they’re navigating a technology with a still-uncertain impact.
 
Is a plumbing career the future?
https://www.ft.com/content/df07d2dc-dc56-4602-a36f-758860cb1374
Plumbing is the future. Or so Geoffrey Hinton, the “godfather of AI”, has said. “The jobs that are going to survive AI for a long time are jobs where you have to be very adaptable and physically skilled, and plumbing’s that kind of job.”
He is not the only one. Jensen Huang, chief executive of chipmaker Nvidia, told Channel Four News: “If you’re an electrician, you’re a plumber, a carpenter — we’re going to need hundreds of thousands of them to build all of these factories.” 

Rate Hike Possibilities

Why the Fed’s Next Rate Move Could Be a Hike
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/why-the-feds-next-rate-move-could-be-a-hike-81e22988
A rate increase, once unthinkable, has become thinkable thanks to stubborn inflation, Iran and a resilient economy. 

Economists Debate the Effect of Minimum Wage

The 30-Year Debate Over the Minimum Wage Is Still Not Settled
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/minimum-wage-jobs-cost-debate-card-krueger-63b21af2
A 1994 paper blew up the consensus that minimum-wage increases kill jobs. Economists have been at each other’s throats ever since. 

How high is too high?
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/11/20/economists-get-cold-feet-about-high-minimum-wages
Economists get cold feet about high minimum wages.

Clemens, Jeffrey. 2021. "How Do Firms Respond to Minimum Wage Increases? Understanding the Relevance of Non-employment Margins." Journal of Economic Perspectives 35 (1): 51–72.
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/jep.35.1.51
 
Lindner, Attila; Dube, Arindrajit; (2024) Minimum Wages in the 21st Century. In: Dustmann, Christian and Lemieux, Thomas, (eds.) Handbook of Labor Economics. (pp. 261-383). Elsevier
https://www.nber.org/papers/w32878
 
Bassier, Ihsaan, Arindrajit Dube, and Suresh Naidu. 2022. "Monopsony in Movers: The Elasticity of Labor Supply to Firm Wage Policies." Journal of Human Resources, 57(S), S50-S86.

https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.monopsony.0319-10111R1  

Dube, Arindrajit, and Attila Lindner. 2021. "City Limits: What Do Local-Area Minimum Wages Do?" Journal of Economic Perspectives, 35 (1): 27–50.
https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.35.1.27

The Effects of Minimum Wages on (Almost) Everything? A Review of Recent Evidence on Health and Related Behaviors
https://www.nber.org/papers/w31191  

Related:

https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2024/09/monopsony-power.html

Affordability Crisis Facing the Middle Class

The Middle-Class Suburbanites Who Sell Their Blood Plasma to Get By
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/20/business/middle-class-sell-their-plasma.html
Across the United States, plasma centers are opening in wealthier areas as more people struggle with the high cost of housing, groceries and health care. 

Impact of the 2026 Energy Shock (Updated)

Why $100 oil won't break the American consumer
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/why-100-oil-wont-break-american-consumer-2026-03-23/
No one likes expensive oil, especially in the U.S., where driving, spending, and energy-intensive economic activity are on such a vast scale. But despite fears to the contrary, the average U.S. consumer has never been better equipped to deal with $100-a-barrel oil.
 
Oil execs warn of long-term damage from Iran war as US downplays crisis
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ceraweek-oil-execs-warn-long-term-damage-iran-war-us-downplays-crisis-2026-03-23/
 
Crude oil's Catch-22: Pricing for Trump TACO trade makes it less likely
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/crude-oils-catch-22-pricing-trump-taco-trade-makes-it-less-likely-2026-03-23/
The crude oil futures markets are still largely pricing for an early resolution to the conflict in the Middle East that results in the full re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. Economy Is Insulated from High Oil Prices. Americans Aren’t.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/20/business/us-economy-oil-prices-inflation-iran-war-americans.html
The overall economy has proved resilient in recent years, even as many households have struggled. The war with Iran is following the same pattern. 

America may be a petrostate. But the energy shock still hurts

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/03/19/america-may-be-a-petrostate-but-the-energy-shock-still-hurts 

They’re the First Victims of the Diesel-Price Shock, but Likely Won’t be the Last
https://www.wsj.com/economy/truckers-are-the-first-victims-of-the-diesel-price-shock-52ff802d
Truck drivers in the U.S. are feeling some of the first economic effects of the rapid surge in the cost of diesel. A broader economic impact could hit soon.

 
If You Want to Know What Happens in an Oil Crisis, Look at Asia
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/20/business/oil-jetfuel-asia.html
As China and other major suppliers of refined oil in the region restrict exports, import-dependent countries are desperate to secure fuel supplies. 

As War Disrupts India’s Gulf Ties, Economy Faces ‘New Broadside’
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/22/business/india-economy-middle-east.html

The Iran War’s Economic Threat to Europe and Asia
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/19/business/iran-war-fiscal-spending-debt.html
Inflation and its consequences for growth are a growing concern for countries where memories of the 2022 energy crisis are fresh.   

Iran war fallout lands hardest on Europe's most gas‑dependent nations
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/iran-war-fallout-lands-hardest-europes-most-gasdependent-nations-2026-03-19/

History Lessons: Wars and Unintended Consequences

This Is How the Iran War Goes Global
https://www.thefp.com/p/niall-ferguson-this-is-how-the-iran
 
Before Waging War, Consult Historians First
https://www.noemamag.com/before-waging-war-consult-historians-first/
The Iran war fits into a long list of predictable miscalculations. 

Trump's Foreign Policy

An interesting take on Trump's foreign policy: 
The end of Trumpism
https://spectator.com/article/the-iran-war-is-likely-to-mark-the-end-of-trumpism/?edition=us 

The Secret to Happiness

A Nordic nation is the world’s happiest country for the ninth year in a row
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/18/travel/worlds-happiest-countries-2026-wellness
 
What makes the Nordic nations so happy?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news/what-makes-the-nordic-nations-so-happy/
Access to space is the obvious answer. It’s no coincidence that these are some of the least densely populated countries on the continent. Iceland has an average of four people living per square kilometer, while trees in Finland outnumber residents by 4,500 to one.
At a political level, a generous social welfare system – nicknamed the “Nordic Model” – promises free healthcare, education and up to a year’s paid parental leave in Denmark. Yes, the taxes are high, but when the money is well spent, and levels of economic inequality are far lower than the global average, who can complain? 

Related:

The Finnish Secret to Happiness? Knowing When You Have Enough.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/01/world/europe/finland-happiness-optimism.html
The Nordic nation has been ranked the happiest country on earth for six consecutive years. But when you talk to individual Finns, the reality is a bit more complicated. 

Are We Trading Our Happiness for Modern Comforts?
https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2020/10/why-life-has-gotten-more-comfortable-less-happy/616807/
As society gets richer, people chase the wrong things. 

Bank Capital Requirements

US moves to soften capital rules: ‘Big banks can declare mission accomplished’
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/mar/19/federal-reserve-bank-capital-requirements
 
Related:
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/the-fed-s--200-billion-bank-stimulus-poses-a-big-risk-86317.html 

Fed Takes a Cautious Approach

The Best That Markets Should Hope for From the Fed: Nothing
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/19/business/federal-reserve-iran-inflation-recession.html
A rate cut in the next few months could signal major problems in the economy. 

Fed Holds Rates Steady as Iran War Clouds Outlook
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-holds-steady-and-maintains-rate-cut-projection-2c378384
A new oil shock is threatening to prolong the Fed’s yearslong fight to bring down inflation ahead of a leadership transition.

Related:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/kevin-warshs-first-move-fed-chair-could-be-rate-hike-2026-03-19/

Shanghai

36 Hours in Shanghai 
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/03/19/travel/things-to-do-shanghai.html 

Weather Is Getting Wilder

The Weather Is Getting Wilder, and Some See a Dire Signal in the Data
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/19/climate/the-weather-is-getting-wilder-and-some-see-a-dire-signal-in-the-data.html
Several of the Earth’s systems are changing faster than predicted as global temperatures rise, scientists say.  

CPI versus PCE

Two measures, two stories about inflation
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/03/18/business/federal-reserve-interest-rates/two-measures-two-stories-about-inflation
The Federal Reserve must contend with price readings that seem headed in opposite directions.  

Rise and Fall of NFTs

He spent $69 million on an NFT. Five years on, he believes in digital art more than ever
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/17/style/singapore-nft-vignesh-sundaresan-beeple-everydays 

What the hell happened to NFTs?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/art/artists/rise-and-fall-of-nfts/
The mad gold rush of the digital art world has come to an abrupt end – and people are losing money fast.

What were NFTs? An understandable internet fad, and the next one is just around the corner
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/27/nfts-non-fungible-tokens-pandemic-loneliness-craze 

NFT Bubbles by Andrea Barbon and Angelo Ranaldo

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.06051.pdf
Abstract
By investigating nonfungible tokens (NFTs), we provide the first systematic study of retail investor behavior through asset bubbles. Given that NFTs are recorded in public blockchains, we are able to track investor behavior over time, leading to the identification of numerous price run-ups and crashes. Our study reveals that agent-level variables, such as investor sophistication, heterogeneity, and wash trading, in addition to aggregate variables, such as volatility, price acceleration, and turnover, significantly predict bubble formation and price crashes. We find that sophisticated investors consistently outperform others and exhibit characteristics consistent with superior information and skills, supporting the narrative surrounding asset pricing bubbles.

US Economy – 2024 versus 2025

Jason Furman:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/18/opinion/economy-us-trump-biden.html
As a candidate, Donald Trump called the economy under President Joe Biden a “nightmare.” As president, he says the United States is “bigger, better, richer and stronger than ever before.” Democratic rhetoric has shifted just as sharply, from Vice President Kamala Harris touting the U.S. economy as “the strongest in the world” during the 2024 campaign to Democrats today decrying an “affordability crisis.” And that was before gas prices jumped more than $0.50 a gallon in the wake of the Iran strikes.
While the narrative on both sides has done a 180-degree turn, the economy itself has not. It didn’t change after tariffs were rolled out. It didn’t change after A.I. became more widely adopted. The economy over the last year has looked a lot like it did in 2024. 

S&P 500 Index - Selection Criteria

Can Companies Buy Their Way Into the S&P 500?

https://www.fa-mag.com/news/can-companies-buy-their-way-into-the-s-p-500-86298.html

Joining the S&P 500 can transform a company’s fortunes, making confidence in the selection process essential for investors and markets alike. But a new study finds that companies purchasing S&P credit ratings were more likely to be admitted, raising questions about the influence of commercial incentives on firms' inclusion.  

AI Boom and US Trade Deficit

The Cost of the A.I. Boom: A Trade Deficit the President Detests
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/18/business/economy/us-trade-deficit-ai-boom.html
A recent surge of A.I.-related imports has become an impediment to the smaller trade deficit President Trump wants.   

Digital Devices in Classrooms

Digital devices are dumbing us down, multiple studies indicate
https://www.ft.com/content/dcd93593-11a3-439a-ab00-577db850cbb4
Some academics are beginning to reach for paper again, but it is not always possible to eliminate phones and laptops. 

Rise of Personal-Finance Classes

High Schools Are Ditching Economics for Personal-Finance Classes
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/education/personal-finance-education-schools-852d8561
States are trading one requirement for another as they emphasize practical education. 

Fed Keeps Missing its Target

Fed Keeps Getting Hit with New Shocks in Yearslong Inflation Fight
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/federal-reserve-inflation-iran-war-678d83ca
A series of supply setbacks has kept prices above target for five years. Now officials have to put a number on what that means for interest rates. 

Dual Citizenship

Seeking a Second Passport
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-lede/seeking-a-second-passport
For some Americans, citizenship in a country their ancestors fled is now an insurance plan. 

Dubai’s Future

The Unravelling of Dubai as a Safe Haven
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-lede/the-unravelling-of-dubai-as-a-safe-haven
What drew many people to the city was not luxury but, rather, stability, and the feeling of remove from war. As Iran attacks the U.A.E., that sense of distance is eroding.

Could This Be the End of Dubai?
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/16/opinion/dubai-hormuz-war-iran-elite.html 

Risky Times Ahead

Private Credit’s Investor Exodus Spreads to Consumer Loans
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/private-credits-investor-exodus-spreads-to-consumer-loans-de2507d7
A fund holding consumer and small-business loans made by companies including Affirm and Block is the latest corner of the private-credit market to come under stress.

Trouble is brewing among America’s corporate borrowers
https://www.economist.com/business/2026/03/15/trouble-is-brewing-among-americas-corporate-borrowers

Inside a $42 Billion Private-Credit Black Box: More Black Boxes
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/inside-a-42-billion-private-credit-black-box-more-black-boxes-e2523e8e
The Cliffwater Corporate Lending Fund’s opacity helps explain why it is facing redemptions. 

Why Bank Stocks Are Getting Beaten Up Over Private Credit
https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/why-bank-stocks-are-getting-beaten-up-over-private-credit-293560f0

Markets rose high on borrowed money. They will fall hard if fear takes hold
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/investing/stocks-shares/markets-rose-high-borrowed-money-fall-hard/
The war in the Middle East has made things unpredictable but the virtue of patience can bring rewards.

Richard Bookstaber: I Predicted the 2008 Financial Crisis. What Is Coming May Be Worse.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/16/opinion/financial-crisis-private-credit-ai-iran-taiwan.html 

College-Educated Working Class

The College-Educated Working Class
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/2026/04/college-working-class-union-labor/686059/
Can a generation of graduates frustrated by their economic prospects change American labor politics? 

Origins of Monotheism

How God Got So Great
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2026/03/09/how-god-got-so-great
What monotheism means is surprisingly hard to pin down, but there’s a reason it swept the world. 

Taxes and Politics

Red and Blue States Are Growing Further Apart on Income Tax
https://www.wsj.com/economy/republican-democrat-state-income-tax-a9d90fa2
GOP-led states are looking to entice new residents with lower taxes, while Democratic-led states seek higher taxes on top earners to shore up budgets and social services.
 
It’s Good to Be a Billionaire, Even at Tax Time
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/15/business/billionaire-income-tax-loopholes.html
Paying taxes would feel better if the truly rich were bearing a fair share, our columnist says. 

Our Inability to Live Within Our Means Makes the U.S. Vulnerable
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/12/opinion/trump-america-first-debt.html
Either the budget changes, or America’s relationship with the rest of the world does.

Sustaining Economic Development - India and China

India Can Avoid the Middle-Income Trap
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/india-can-avoid-middle-income-trap-by-arvind-panagariya-2026-03
Can India avoid the dreaded middle-income trap that has ensnared so many other developing countries in Latin America and Southeast Asia? Its favorable demographics, steadily improving economic governance and civil administration, and recent trade agreements certainly suggest so.
 
Infrastructure Investment Is the Key to China’s Growth
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-must-increase-infrastructure-investment-to-meet-growth-targets-by-yu-yongding-2026-03
China’s government has now set its growth target for 2026 at 4.5-5%. With China’s GDP deflator still in negative territory and ample policy space for more expansionary fiscal and monetary policy, this is achievable, but it will require boosting both consumption and investment spending. 

China’s Long-Promised Consumer Boom Is a Mirage
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/13/opinion/china-exports-consumer-spending.html
China may never be able to realize its longtime promise to shift away from an overreliance on exports. 

Laid Off in Midlife, China’s Reform Generation Braces for Downward Mobility
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/21/business/laid-off-in-midlife-chinas-reform-generation-braces-for-downward-mobility.html
The future once seemed boundless for those who grew up during China’s reform era. Now in middle age, they are pinned between economic stagnation and institutional age discrimination. 

Tech Stocks - Interesting Items

Big Tech Stocks Have a Free Cash Flow Problem
https://www.barrons.com/articles/tech-stocks-free-cash-flow-problem-cbac7ace

Does Apple pay dividends? A history of rewarding shareholders
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/apple-dividends
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/does-apple-pay-dividends-history-180500290.html

Apple Is Way Behind in AI—and Still Making a Fortune from It
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/apple-ai-subscriptions-strategy-7ce4ba7f
The iPhone maker’s AI revenue is set to top $1 billion this year, reassuring investors who are wary of the sky-high spending of its rivals.

Apple’s Cheap AI Bet Could Pay Off Big
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/apples-cheap-ai-bet-could-pay-off-big-a2032a19

 
Microsoft’s IPO turns 40 today. If you invested $1,000 in Microsoft in 1986, you’d have $5.5 million today
https://fortune.com/2026/03/13/microsofts-ipo-40-years-1000-investment-5-5-million/
https://www.aol.com/articles/microsoft-ipo-turns-40-today-070800029.html
 
Microsoft Stock Hasn’t Been This Cheap in a Decade. It’s Time to Buy.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-microsoft-stock-price-pick-13ebdc40 

Are Germans Lazy?

Germans Aren’t Lazy. There’s a Reason They Work Less
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-03-12/germans-are-not-lazy-they-work-less-for-a-reason
 
Related:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/09/09/germany-work-hours-existential-crisis/ 

Oil Shock and the US Economy

Oil Shock Hits an Economy Already Showing Cracks
https://www.wsj.com/economy/oil-shock-hits-an-economy-already-showing-cracks-bf7e385d
Consumer spending was slow and inflation was stubborn even before the attack on Iran sent oil prices soaring.

Trump’s Inexcusable Unpreparedness for the Iranian Oil Crisis
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-financial-page/trumps-inexcusable-unpreparedness-for-the-iranian-oil-crisis
In the President’s first term, Iran demonstrated what tactics it would use in a confrontation with the U.S. Yet the Administration seems to have no game plan.

Challenges Facing the Global Economy

Globalization Faces Its Next Crisis
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/13/business/economy/iran-war-global-supply-chain.html
Beyond its effects on oil and gas, the unfolding war in the Middle East is roiling shipping and airfreight, threatening the availability of a vast range of goods. 

Oil Shock Hits an Economy Already Showing Cracks
https://www.wsj.com/economy/oil-shock-hits-an-economy-already-showing-cracks-bf7e385d
Consumer spending was slow and inflation was stubborn even before the attack on Iran sent oil prices soaring.

 
Echoes of the ’70s in What’s Now the Largest Oil Shock Ever
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/13/world/middleeast/oil-supply-shock-1973-embargo.html
Governments have stockpiled oil, and cars are more efficient, but the supply shock is global, and there’s no sense of when it’ll end.  

Portfolio Allocation and Retirement Planning

More Clients Should Have a Stock-Heavy Portfolio, Yale Researchers Say
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/more-clients-should-have-a-stock-heavy-portfolio--say-yale-researchers-86251.html
User guide for “Practical Finance: An Approximate Solution to Lifecycle Portfolio Choice” spreadsheet
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1hykGDl6ZHJmDJmIJ706nErIKg5gWeoTxagnEvpWmuwA/edit?usp=sharing
 
The Tax Bill Haunting Your 401(k) and I.R.A.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/15/business/roth-ira-taxes-retirement-401k.html
Most people have piled their savings into tax-deferred accounts, delaying taxes until they retire. Using Roth options can help ease your tax bite.

Why some Gen Z workers are already planning for early retirement
https://www.reuters.com/markets/on-the-money/why-some-gen-z-workers-are-already-planning-early-retirement-2026-03-12/
This 26-year-old is part of a growing wave of young savers taking advantage of employer retirement plans and using index funds to build long-term wealth. 

Safe-Haven Stocks?

Why Investors Aren’t Fleeing to Safe-Haven Stocks
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/why-investors-arent-fleeing-to-safe-haven-stocks-194194b3
Healthcare and consumer staples are supposed to be defensive. This time, it hasn’t worked out. 

War Is Raging. Tankers Are Burning. Yet the Stock Market Isn’t Panicking—for Now.
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/war-is-raging-tankers-are-burning-yet-the-stock-market-isnt-panickingfor-now-6c96af2b
Market confidence in a short war was misplaced. This isn’t a time to be confident about the outcome.

AI and the Labor Market

Are We Facing an AI Nightmare?
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ai-job-loss-scenarios-and-likely-public-responses-by-raghuram-g-rajan-2026-03
AI-doom scenarios are going viral because there are no easy public-policy responses to the problem of large-scale but not universal technological unemployment. Society’s best hope is a Goldilocks scenario, where the AI rollout is not too fast, and where the industry is not too oligopolistic.
 
AI Isn’t Lightening Workloads. It’s Making Them More Intense.
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-isnt-lightening-workloads-its-making-them-more-intense-e417dd2c
The technology is increasing the speed, density and complexity of work rather than reducing it, a new analysis of 164,000 people’s work activity shows. 

Smart Money versus Dumb Money

Smart Money, Dumb Money, It’s All Just Money
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/smart-money-dumb-money-its-all-just-money-706cd1e3
The biggest difference between individual and institutional investors: Institutions have a lot more money to make bad decisions with. 

High Fuel Prices - US Economic Impact

Iran oil price shock scrambles Fed outlook, rate discussions
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/iran-oil-price-shock-scrambles-fed-outlook-rate-discussions-183201187.html

Elevated Energy Prices Add to Fed’s Dilemma on Interest Rates
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/business/fed-oil-iran-interest-rates.html
Investors now expect that the Fed will delay a rate cut until September instead of July, as they had before the war in Iran began. 

 
America Is an Oil Exporter. Why Does a Mideast War Raise U.S. Gas Prices?
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/business/gasoline-price-energy-costs.html
 
Rising Fuel Costs Pressure Airlines and Truckers
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/business/energy-environment/jet-fuel-diesel-airlines-truckers-iran.html
The price of jet fuel and diesel has surged since the war in Iran began, which could force airlines and trucking companies to pass on higher costs to their customers. 

China's Economic Exposure to Mideast Conflict

China Has Spent Years Preparing for the Iran Oil Crisis
https://www.wsj.com/world/china-has-spent-years-preparing-for-the-iran-oil-crisis-b0ff5577
Massive oil stockpiles and a shift to electric vehicles are helping to insulate the Chinese economy from supply disruptions in the Middle East.
 
For China, Billions of Dollars Are at Risk from a Widening War
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/09/business/china-trade-persian-gulf-iran.html 

China Gets Interested in the Classics

How China Learned to Love the Classics
https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-education/how-china-learned-to-love-the-classics
The Chinese Communist Party has embraced the study of Greek and Latin—as, in some ways, an antidote to the modern West. 

Money and Elections

The Scale of Billionaires’ Campaign Donations Is Overwhelming U.S. Politics
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/09/us/billionaires-federal-election-campaign-contributions.html
Billionaires made 19 percent of all reported federal campaign contributions in 2024, a Times analysis shows, and even more in some local elections. Wealthy donors are reaping the rewards. 

Military Conflicts - Economic and Financial Impact

‘The Old Game Is Back’: Oil Is a Potent Geopolitical Tool Again
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/09/business/energy-environment/oil-gas-iran-war.html

What the Markets Are Telling Us About the War in the Gulf
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/what-the-markets-are-telling-us-about-the-war-in-the-gulf-4af5655e
The investment question now is whether signs of worry are a reason to buy the dip or a reason to get out.
 
Why the Oil Shock Probably Won’t Derail the Economy. And One Way It Might.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/why-the-oil-shock-probably-wont-derail-the-economy-and-one-way-it-might-c8603382
The U.S. is a net petroleum exporter and productivity is improving, but the bigger risk is stubborn inflation.
 
War in the Middle East Threatens Global Food Production
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/07/business/middle-east-war-fertilizer-supplies.html
The Persian Gulf is a major source of fertilizers, making the conflict disruptive to the global production of food.
 
Insider Trading Is Going to Get People Killed
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/2026/03/polymarket-insider-trading-going-get-people-killed/686283/
War markets are a national-security threat. 

Declining Birthrates - A Problem?

Are Declining Birthrates Really a Problem?
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/08/opinion/declining-birthrates.html
The world’s population has more than doubled since 1960. During that same period, global wildlife populations, according to the World Wildlife Fund and other sources, have fallen by nearly 70 percent. Forests, coral reefs and freshwater systems are under severe strain. We are living in what scientists call a sixth mass extinction. In that context, a gradual decline in birthrates — especially when driven by education, opportunity and access to contraception — may not be a crisis. It may be a stabilizing force. The goal should not be more births at all costs. It should be children born into conditions of security, love and ecological stability. A world where families can thrive without pushing planetary systems past their limits. 

Workforce Training: Skills-Trade Certification versus College Education

America rethinks how to train its workforce
https://www.ft.com/content/f9cdc9ca-c2a9-4fe1-89fc-c27b53d936b9
Oren Cass:
In the first two decades of the 21st century, the US added college graduates twice as fast as its labor market added jobs that require a college degree. Now, the unemployment rate for young college grads equals the level reached in the depths of the so-called Great Recession. For the first time since the 1970s, the unemployment rate for bachelor’s degree holders is higher than for occupational degree holders.
The second key trend is that the supposedly inevitable migration of economic opportunity from the physical world to the “knowledge economy” has suddenly reversed course.