Rate Hike Possibilities

Why the Fed’s Next Rate Move Could Be a Hike
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/why-the-feds-next-rate-move-could-be-a-hike-81e22988
A rate increase, once unthinkable, has become thinkable thanks to stubborn inflation, Iran and a resilient economy. 

Economists Debate the Effect of Minimum Wage

The 30-Year Debate Over the Minimum Wage Is Still Not Settled
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/minimum-wage-jobs-cost-debate-card-krueger-63b21af2
A 1994 paper blew up the consensus that minimum-wage increases kill jobs. Economists have been at each other’s throats ever since. 

How high is too high?
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/11/20/economists-get-cold-feet-about-high-minimum-wages
Economists get cold feet about high minimum wages.

Minimum Wages in the 21st Century

https://www.nber.org/papers/w32878   

Dube, Arindrajit, and Attila Lindner. 2021. "City Limits: What Do Local-Area Minimum Wages Do?" Journal of Economic Perspectives, 35 (1): 27–50.
https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.35.1.27

The Effects of Minimum Wages on (Almost) Everything? A Review of Recent Evidence on Health and Related Behaviors
https://www.nber.org/papers/w31191  

Related:

https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2024/09/monopsony-power.html

Affordability Crisis Facing the Middle Class

The Middle-Class Suburbanites Who Sell Their Blood Plasma to Get By
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/20/business/middle-class-sell-their-plasma.html
Across the United States, plasma centers are opening in wealthier areas as more people struggle with the high cost of housing, groceries and health care. 

Impact of the 2026 Energy Shock

The U.S. Economy Is Insulated from High Oil Prices. Americans Aren’t.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/20/business/us-economy-oil-prices-inflation-iran-war-americans.html
The overall economy has proved resilient in recent years, even as many households have struggled. The war with Iran is following the same pattern. 

America may be a petrostate. But the energy shock still hurts

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/03/19/america-may-be-a-petrostate-but-the-energy-shock-still-hurts 

 
If You Want to Know What Happens in an Oil Crisis, Look at Asia
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/20/business/oil-jetfuel-asia.html
As China and other major suppliers of refined oil in the region restrict exports, import-dependent countries are desperate to secure fuel supplies. 

The Iran War’s Economic Threat to Europe and Asia
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/19/business/iran-war-fiscal-spending-debt.html
Inflation and its consequences for growth are a growing concern for countries where memories of the 2022 energy crisis are fresh.   

Iran war fallout lands hardest on Europe's most gas‑dependent nations
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/iran-war-fallout-lands-hardest-europes-most-gasdependent-nations-2026-03-19/

History Lessons: Wars and Unintended Consequences

This Is How the Iran War Goes Global
https://www.thefp.com/p/niall-ferguson-this-is-how-the-iran
 
Before Waging War, Consult Historians First
https://www.noemamag.com/before-waging-war-consult-historians-first/
The Iran war fits into a long list of predictable miscalculations. 

Trump's Foreign Policy

An interesting take on Trump's foreign policy: 
The end of Trumpism
https://spectator.com/article/the-iran-war-is-likely-to-mark-the-end-of-trumpism/?edition=us 

The Secret to Happiness

A Nordic nation is the world’s happiest country for the ninth year in a row
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/18/travel/worlds-happiest-countries-2026-wellness
 
What makes the Nordic nations so happy?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news/what-makes-the-nordic-nations-so-happy/
Access to space is the obvious answer. It’s no coincidence that these are some of the least densely populated countries on the continent. Iceland has an average of four people living per square kilometer, while trees in Finland outnumber residents by 4,500 to one.
At a political level, a generous social welfare system – nicknamed the “Nordic Model” – promises free healthcare, education and up to a year’s paid parental leave in Denmark. Yes, the taxes are high, but when the money is well spent, and levels of economic inequality are far lower than the global average, who can complain? 

Related:

The Finnish Secret to Happiness? Knowing When You Have Enough.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/01/world/europe/finland-happiness-optimism.html
The Nordic nation has been ranked the happiest country on earth for six consecutive years. But when you talk to individual Finns, the reality is a bit more complicated. 

Are We Trading Our Happiness for Modern Comforts?
https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2020/10/why-life-has-gotten-more-comfortable-less-happy/616807/
As society gets richer, people chase the wrong things. 

Bank Capital Requirements

US moves to soften capital rules: ‘Big banks can declare mission accomplished’
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/mar/19/federal-reserve-bank-capital-requirements
 
Related:
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/the-fed-s--200-billion-bank-stimulus-poses-a-big-risk-86317.html 

Fed Takes a Cautious Approach

The Best That Markets Should Hope for From the Fed: Nothing
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/19/business/federal-reserve-iran-inflation-recession.html
A rate cut in the next few months could signal major problems in the economy. 

Fed Holds Rates Steady as Iran War Clouds Outlook
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-holds-steady-and-maintains-rate-cut-projection-2c378384
A new oil shock is threatening to prolong the Fed’s yearslong fight to bring down inflation ahead of a leadership transition.

Related:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/kevin-warshs-first-move-fed-chair-could-be-rate-hike-2026-03-19/

Shanghai

36 Hours in Shanghai 
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/03/19/travel/things-to-do-shanghai.html 

Weather Is Getting Wilder

The Weather Is Getting Wilder, and Some See a Dire Signal in the Data
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/19/climate/the-weather-is-getting-wilder-and-some-see-a-dire-signal-in-the-data.html
Several of the Earth’s systems are changing faster than predicted as global temperatures rise, scientists say.  

CPI versus PCE

Two measures, two stories about inflation
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/03/18/business/federal-reserve-interest-rates/two-measures-two-stories-about-inflation
The Federal Reserve must contend with price readings that seem headed in opposite directions.  

Rise and Fall of NFTs

He spent $69 million on an NFT. Five years on, he believes in digital art more than ever
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/17/style/singapore-nft-vignesh-sundaresan-beeple-everydays 

What the hell happened to NFTs?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/art/artists/rise-and-fall-of-nfts/
The mad gold rush of the digital art world has come to an abrupt end – and people are losing money fast.

What were NFTs? An understandable internet fad, and the next one is just around the corner
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/27/nfts-non-fungible-tokens-pandemic-loneliness-craze 

NFT Bubbles by Andrea Barbon and Angelo Ranaldo

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.06051.pdf
Abstract
By investigating nonfungible tokens (NFTs), we provide the first systematic study of retail investor behavior through asset bubbles. Given that NFTs are recorded in public blockchains, we are able to track investor behavior over time, leading to the identification of numerous price run-ups and crashes. Our study reveals that agent-level variables, such as investor sophistication, heterogeneity, and wash trading, in addition to aggregate variables, such as volatility, price acceleration, and turnover, significantly predict bubble formation and price crashes. We find that sophisticated investors consistently outperform others and exhibit characteristics consistent with superior information and skills, supporting the narrative surrounding asset pricing bubbles.

US Economy – 2024 versus 2025

Jason Furman:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/18/opinion/economy-us-trump-biden.html
As a candidate, Donald Trump called the economy under President Joe Biden a “nightmare.” As president, he says the United States is “bigger, better, richer and stronger than ever before.” Democratic rhetoric has shifted just as sharply, from Vice President Kamala Harris touting the U.S. economy as “the strongest in the world” during the 2024 campaign to Democrats today decrying an “affordability crisis.” And that was before gas prices jumped more than $0.50 a gallon in the wake of the Iran strikes.
While the narrative on both sides has done a 180-degree turn, the economy itself has not. It didn’t change after tariffs were rolled out. It didn’t change after A.I. became more widely adopted. The economy over the last year has looked a lot like it did in 2024. 

S&P 500 Index - Selection Criteria

Can Companies Buy Their Way Into the S&P 500?

https://www.fa-mag.com/news/can-companies-buy-their-way-into-the-s-p-500-86298.html

Joining the S&P 500 can transform a company’s fortunes, making confidence in the selection process essential for investors and markets alike. But a new study finds that companies purchasing S&P credit ratings were more likely to be admitted, raising questions about the influence of commercial incentives on firms' inclusion.  

AI Boom and US Trade Deficit

The Cost of the A.I. Boom: A Trade Deficit the President Detests
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/18/business/economy/us-trade-deficit-ai-boom.html
A recent surge of A.I.-related imports has become an impediment to the smaller trade deficit President Trump wants.   

Digital Devices in Classrooms

Digital devices are dumbing us down, multiple studies indicate
https://www.ft.com/content/dcd93593-11a3-439a-ab00-577db850cbb4
Some academics are beginning to reach for paper again, but it is not always possible to eliminate phones and laptops. 

Rise of Personal-Finance Classes

High Schools Are Ditching Economics for Personal-Finance Classes
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/education/personal-finance-education-schools-852d8561
States are trading one requirement for another as they emphasize practical education. 

Fed Keeps Missing its Target

Fed Keeps Getting Hit with New Shocks in Yearslong Inflation Fight
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/federal-reserve-inflation-iran-war-678d83ca
A series of supply setbacks has kept prices above target for five years. Now officials have to put a number on what that means for interest rates. 

Dual Citizenship

Seeking a Second Passport
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-lede/seeking-a-second-passport
For some Americans, citizenship in a country their ancestors fled is now an insurance plan. 

Dubai’s Future

The Unravelling of Dubai as a Safe Haven
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-lede/the-unravelling-of-dubai-as-a-safe-haven
What drew many people to the city was not luxury but, rather, stability, and the feeling of remove from war. As Iran attacks the U.A.E., that sense of distance is eroding.

Could This Be the End of Dubai?
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/16/opinion/dubai-hormuz-war-iran-elite.html 

Risky Times Ahead

Private Credit’s Investor Exodus Spreads to Consumer Loans
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/private-credits-investor-exodus-spreads-to-consumer-loans-de2507d7
A fund holding consumer and small-business loans made by companies including Affirm and Block is the latest corner of the private-credit market to come under stress.

Trouble is brewing among America’s corporate borrowers
https://www.economist.com/business/2026/03/15/trouble-is-brewing-among-americas-corporate-borrowers

Inside a $42 Billion Private-Credit Black Box: More Black Boxes
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/inside-a-42-billion-private-credit-black-box-more-black-boxes-e2523e8e
The Cliffwater Corporate Lending Fund’s opacity helps explain why it is facing redemptions. 

Why Bank Stocks Are Getting Beaten Up Over Private Credit
https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/why-bank-stocks-are-getting-beaten-up-over-private-credit-293560f0

Markets rose high on borrowed money. They will fall hard if fear takes hold
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/investing/stocks-shares/markets-rose-high-borrowed-money-fall-hard/
The war in the Middle East has made things unpredictable but the virtue of patience can bring rewards.

Richard Bookstaber: I Predicted the 2008 Financial Crisis. What Is Coming May Be Worse.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/16/opinion/financial-crisis-private-credit-ai-iran-taiwan.html 

College-Educated Working Class

The College-Educated Working Class
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/2026/04/college-working-class-union-labor/686059/
Can a generation of graduates frustrated by their economic prospects change American labor politics? 

Origins of Monotheism

How God Got So Great
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2026/03/09/how-god-got-so-great
What monotheism means is surprisingly hard to pin down, but there’s a reason it swept the world. 

Taxes and Politics

Red and Blue States Are Growing Further Apart on Income Tax
https://www.wsj.com/economy/republican-democrat-state-income-tax-a9d90fa2
GOP-led states are looking to entice new residents with lower taxes, while Democratic-led states seek higher taxes on top earners to shore up budgets and social services.
 
It’s Good to Be a Billionaire, Even at Tax Time
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/15/business/billionaire-income-tax-loopholes.html
Paying taxes would feel better if the truly rich were bearing a fair share, our columnist says. 

Our Inability to Live Within Our Means Makes the U.S. Vulnerable
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/12/opinion/trump-america-first-debt.html
Either the budget changes, or America’s relationship with the rest of the world does.

Sustaining Economic Development - India and China

India Can Avoid the Middle-Income Trap
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/india-can-avoid-middle-income-trap-by-arvind-panagariya-2026-03
Can India avoid the dreaded middle-income trap that has ensnared so many other developing countries in Latin America and Southeast Asia? Its favorable demographics, steadily improving economic governance and civil administration, and recent trade agreements certainly suggest so.
 
Infrastructure Investment Is the Key to China’s Growth
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-must-increase-infrastructure-investment-to-meet-growth-targets-by-yu-yongding-2026-03
China’s government has now set its growth target for 2026 at 4.5-5%. With China’s GDP deflator still in negative territory and ample policy space for more expansionary fiscal and monetary policy, this is achievable, but it will require boosting both consumption and investment spending. 

China’s Long-Promised Consumer Boom Is a Mirage
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/13/opinion/china-exports-consumer-spending.html
China may never be able to realize its longtime promise to shift away from an overreliance on exports. 

Laid Off in Midlife, China’s Reform Generation Braces for Downward Mobility
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/21/business/laid-off-in-midlife-chinas-reform-generation-braces-for-downward-mobility.html
The future once seemed boundless for those who grew up during China’s reform era. Now in middle age, they are pinned between economic stagnation and institutional age discrimination. 

Tech Stocks - Interesting Items

Big Tech Stocks Have a Free Cash Flow Problem
https://www.barrons.com/articles/tech-stocks-free-cash-flow-problem-cbac7ace

Does Apple pay dividends? A history of rewarding shareholders
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/apple-dividends
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/does-apple-pay-dividends-history-180500290.html

Apple Is Way Behind in AI—and Still Making a Fortune from It
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/apple-ai-subscriptions-strategy-7ce4ba7f
The iPhone maker’s AI revenue is set to top $1 billion this year, reassuring investors who are wary of the sky-high spending of its rivals.

Apple’s Cheap AI Bet Could Pay Off Big
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/apples-cheap-ai-bet-could-pay-off-big-a2032a19

 
Microsoft’s IPO turns 40 today. If you invested $1,000 in Microsoft in 1986, you’d have $5.5 million today
https://fortune.com/2026/03/13/microsofts-ipo-40-years-1000-investment-5-5-million/
https://www.aol.com/articles/microsoft-ipo-turns-40-today-070800029.html
 
Microsoft Stock Hasn’t Been This Cheap in a Decade. It’s Time to Buy.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-microsoft-stock-price-pick-13ebdc40 

Are Germans Lazy?

Germans Aren’t Lazy. There’s a Reason They Work Less
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-03-12/germans-are-not-lazy-they-work-less-for-a-reason
 
Related:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/09/09/germany-work-hours-existential-crisis/ 

Oil Shock and the US Economy

Oil Shock Hits an Economy Already Showing Cracks
https://www.wsj.com/economy/oil-shock-hits-an-economy-already-showing-cracks-bf7e385d
Consumer spending was slow and inflation was stubborn even before the attack on Iran sent oil prices soaring.

Trump’s Inexcusable Unpreparedness for the Iranian Oil Crisis
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-financial-page/trumps-inexcusable-unpreparedness-for-the-iranian-oil-crisis
In the President’s first term, Iran demonstrated what tactics it would use in a confrontation with the U.S. Yet the Administration seems to have no game plan.

Challenges Facing the Global Economy

Globalization Faces Its Next Crisis
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/13/business/economy/iran-war-global-supply-chain.html
Beyond its effects on oil and gas, the unfolding war in the Middle East is roiling shipping and airfreight, threatening the availability of a vast range of goods. 

Oil Shock Hits an Economy Already Showing Cracks
https://www.wsj.com/economy/oil-shock-hits-an-economy-already-showing-cracks-bf7e385d
Consumer spending was slow and inflation was stubborn even before the attack on Iran sent oil prices soaring.

 
Echoes of the ’70s in What’s Now the Largest Oil Shock Ever
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/13/world/middleeast/oil-supply-shock-1973-embargo.html
Governments have stockpiled oil, and cars are more efficient, but the supply shock is global, and there’s no sense of when it’ll end.  

Portfolio Allocation and Retirement Planning

More Clients Should Have a Stock-Heavy Portfolio, Yale Researchers Say
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/more-clients-should-have-a-stock-heavy-portfolio--say-yale-researchers-86251.html
User guide for “Practical Finance: An Approximate Solution to Lifecycle Portfolio Choice” spreadsheet
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1hykGDl6ZHJmDJmIJ706nErIKg5gWeoTxagnEvpWmuwA/edit?usp=sharing
 
The Tax Bill Haunting Your 401(k) and I.R.A.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/15/business/roth-ira-taxes-retirement-401k.html
Most people have piled their savings into tax-deferred accounts, delaying taxes until they retire. Using Roth options can help ease your tax bite.

Why some Gen Z workers are already planning for early retirement
https://www.reuters.com/markets/on-the-money/why-some-gen-z-workers-are-already-planning-early-retirement-2026-03-12/
This 26-year-old is part of a growing wave of young savers taking advantage of employer retirement plans and using index funds to build long-term wealth. 

Safe-Haven Stocks?

Why Investors Aren’t Fleeing to Safe-Haven Stocks
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/why-investors-arent-fleeing-to-safe-haven-stocks-194194b3
Healthcare and consumer staples are supposed to be defensive. This time, it hasn’t worked out. 

War Is Raging. Tankers Are Burning. Yet the Stock Market Isn’t Panicking—for Now.
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/war-is-raging-tankers-are-burning-yet-the-stock-market-isnt-panickingfor-now-6c96af2b
Market confidence in a short war was misplaced. This isn’t a time to be confident about the outcome.

AI and the Labor Market

Are We Facing an AI Nightmare?
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ai-job-loss-scenarios-and-likely-public-responses-by-raghuram-g-rajan-2026-03
AI-doom scenarios are going viral because there are no easy public-policy responses to the problem of large-scale but not universal technological unemployment. Society’s best hope is a Goldilocks scenario, where the AI rollout is not too fast, and where the industry is not too oligopolistic.
 
AI Isn’t Lightening Workloads. It’s Making Them More Intense.
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-isnt-lightening-workloads-its-making-them-more-intense-e417dd2c
The technology is increasing the speed, density and complexity of work rather than reducing it, a new analysis of 164,000 people’s work activity shows. 

Smart Money versus Dumb Money

Smart Money, Dumb Money, It’s All Just Money
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/smart-money-dumb-money-its-all-just-money-706cd1e3
The biggest difference between individual and institutional investors: Institutions have a lot more money to make bad decisions with. 

High Fuel Prices - US Economic Impact

Iran oil price shock scrambles Fed outlook, rate discussions
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/iran-oil-price-shock-scrambles-fed-outlook-rate-discussions-183201187.html

Elevated Energy Prices Add to Fed’s Dilemma on Interest Rates
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/business/fed-oil-iran-interest-rates.html
Investors now expect that the Fed will delay a rate cut until September instead of July, as they had before the war in Iran began. 

 
America Is an Oil Exporter. Why Does a Mideast War Raise U.S. Gas Prices?
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/business/gasoline-price-energy-costs.html
 
Rising Fuel Costs Pressure Airlines and Truckers
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/business/energy-environment/jet-fuel-diesel-airlines-truckers-iran.html
The price of jet fuel and diesel has surged since the war in Iran began, which could force airlines and trucking companies to pass on higher costs to their customers. 

China's Economic Exposure to Mideast Conflict

China Has Spent Years Preparing for the Iran Oil Crisis
https://www.wsj.com/world/china-has-spent-years-preparing-for-the-iran-oil-crisis-b0ff5577
Massive oil stockpiles and a shift to electric vehicles are helping to insulate the Chinese economy from supply disruptions in the Middle East.
 
For China, Billions of Dollars Are at Risk from a Widening War
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/09/business/china-trade-persian-gulf-iran.html 

China Gets Interested in the Classics

How China Learned to Love the Classics
https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-education/how-china-learned-to-love-the-classics
The Chinese Communist Party has embraced the study of Greek and Latin—as, in some ways, an antidote to the modern West. 

Money and Elections

The Scale of Billionaires’ Campaign Donations Is Overwhelming U.S. Politics
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/09/us/billionaires-federal-election-campaign-contributions.html
Billionaires made 19 percent of all reported federal campaign contributions in 2024, a Times analysis shows, and even more in some local elections. Wealthy donors are reaping the rewards. 

Military Conflicts - Economic and Financial Impact

‘The Old Game Is Back’: Oil Is a Potent Geopolitical Tool Again
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/09/business/energy-environment/oil-gas-iran-war.html

What the Markets Are Telling Us About the War in the Gulf
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/what-the-markets-are-telling-us-about-the-war-in-the-gulf-4af5655e
The investment question now is whether signs of worry are a reason to buy the dip or a reason to get out.
 
Why the Oil Shock Probably Won’t Derail the Economy. And One Way It Might.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/why-the-oil-shock-probably-wont-derail-the-economy-and-one-way-it-might-c8603382
The U.S. is a net petroleum exporter and productivity is improving, but the bigger risk is stubborn inflation.
 
War in the Middle East Threatens Global Food Production
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/07/business/middle-east-war-fertilizer-supplies.html
The Persian Gulf is a major source of fertilizers, making the conflict disruptive to the global production of food.
 
Insider Trading Is Going to Get People Killed
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/2026/03/polymarket-insider-trading-going-get-people-killed/686283/
War markets are a national-security threat. 

Declining Birthrates - A Problem?

Are Declining Birthrates Really a Problem?
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/08/opinion/declining-birthrates.html
The world’s population has more than doubled since 1960. During that same period, global wildlife populations, according to the World Wildlife Fund and other sources, have fallen by nearly 70 percent. Forests, coral reefs and freshwater systems are under severe strain. We are living in what scientists call a sixth mass extinction. In that context, a gradual decline in birthrates — especially when driven by education, opportunity and access to contraception — may not be a crisis. It may be a stabilizing force. The goal should not be more births at all costs. It should be children born into conditions of security, love and ecological stability. A world where families can thrive without pushing planetary systems past their limits. 

Workforce Training: Skills-Trade Certification versus College Education

America rethinks how to train its workforce
https://www.ft.com/content/f9cdc9ca-c2a9-4fe1-89fc-c27b53d936b9
Oren Cass:
In the first two decades of the 21st century, the US added college graduates twice as fast as its labor market added jobs that require a college degree. Now, the unemployment rate for young college grads equals the level reached in the depths of the so-called Great Recession. For the first time since the 1970s, the unemployment rate for bachelor’s degree holders is higher than for occupational degree holders.
The second key trend is that the supposedly inevitable migration of economic opportunity from the physical world to the “knowledge economy” has suddenly reversed course. 

Financial Insecurity and Populism

Financial Insecurity, Not Immigration, Is Driving Populist Politics
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/economic-insecurity-not-immigration-fueling-political-discontent-in-uk-and-across-europe-by-lorenza-antonucci-2026-03
Nearly a decade after Brexit and Donald Trump’s first election victory, populism is still often portrayed as a revolt by working-class voters struggling to keep up with economic change. But today’s electoral shifts reflect everyday forms of insecurity affecting a much broader segment of the population. 

US Labor Market - Data and Trends

Big Revisions Are a Reason to Question Jobs Numbers, Not Dismiss Them
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/06/business/economy/economy-data-revisions.html
Economists say estimates from official agencies are reliable, but they worry the quality of data is eroding.
 
Health Care Has Become the Lifeblood of the Labor Market 
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/06/business/economy/health-care-hiring-labor-market.html 

The Month Healthcare Jobs Stopped Propping Up the Labor Market
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/the-month-healthcare-jobs-stopped-propping-up-the-labor-market-200cf6c1
A rough February jobs report exposed just how much the U.S. has relied on health workers.

Economic Growth and Development - Interesting Items

To understand why countries grow, look at their firms
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/03/05/to-understand-why-countries-grow-look-at-their-firms
The third way in development economics.
 

The future of Africa will be shaped by investment rather than aid
https://www.economist.com/international/2026/03/19/the-future-of-africa-will-be-shaped-by-investment-rather-than-aid

In African development, big is beautiful again
https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/03/05/in-african-development-big-is-beautiful-again
With aid declining, grand visions for growth are back in fashion. 

A Stronger Work Ethic Won’t Fix Advanced Economies
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/advanced-economies-productivity-growth-depends-on-strategic-investment-not-labor-by-jun-du-2026-03
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz learned the wrong lesson on his recent trip to China. Advanced economies expand and remain competitive not through additional labor inputs but through capital deepening, technological progress, and total factor productivity growth.

History Lesson: Native Americans and Rule of Law

The Indian Removal Act: unchecked expansionism and disregard for the rule of law
https://www.economist.com/essay/2026/02/02/the-indian-removal-act-unchecked-expansionism-and-disregard-for-the-rule-of-law
IN 1817, GENERAL Andrew Jackson invaded Florida, claimed by the Spanish empire but inhabited mostly by Seminole people. Jackson and his troops used scorched-earth tactics: destroying villages, burning cornfields and sacking storehouses, in the hope that terror and hunger would drive Seminoles to surrender. They killed warriors and civilians alike, and captured the Native leaders Hillis Harjo and Homathle Micco as well as Alexander Arbuthnot and Robert Ambrister, two British citizens who had aided the indigenous communities. Jackson executed them all without proper due process. 

Rebalancing China’s Economy

China Signals New Era of Slower Economic Growth
https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-signals-new-era-of-slower-economic-growth-73454b91
China set a historically low growth target of 4.5% to 5%, suggesting that the world’s second-largest economy is entering an era of slower expansion. 

China Sets Its Lowest Economic Growth Target in Decades
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/business/china-gdp-target-2025.html
The goal of between 4.5 percent and 5 percent, announced at a gathering of Communist Party leaders, was the lowest since 1991 and can offer clues about China’s policymaking plans.

China needs a more ambitious growth target
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/03/04/china-needs-a-more-ambitious-growth-target
Otherwise a fourth year of deflation awaits.

Related: https://www.economist.com/china/2026/03/05/china-sets-its-lowest-growth-target-for-a-generation

Investing During Turbulent Times

A Week of Turmoil Leaves Stocks in Negative Territory for 2026
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/06/business/stocks-jobs-report.html
Market movements this week had already been choppy as investors weighed the inflationary impact of the conflict in the Middle East. On Friday, the jobs report complicated matters.

Dollar, bonds, or gold - which is the safest haven to hold?
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/dollar-bonds-or-gold-which-is-safest-haven-hold-2026-03-05/
 
How Much Should You Allocate to Safer Assets?
https://www.morningstar.com/portfolios/how-much-should-you-allocate-safer-assets
 
The Best Playbook for Investing During a War Is Usually Doing Nothing
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/business/iran-us-israel-war-investing-stocks-bonds.html  

Fintechs versus Traditional Banks

Crypto Fans Have an Alternative to Savings Accounts. Banks Are Freaking Out.
https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/crypto-fans-have-an-alternative-to-savings-accounts-banks-are-freaking-out-b42fdec5
Stablecoins—and the yields they can offer—are at the center of a fight between the crypto and banking industries.
 
Revolut, the British Finance App, Seeks a U.S. Banking Charter
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/05/business/dealbook/revolut-us-banking-charter.html
The company said that the move, if approved, would allow it to offer more products to American customers as it seeks to grow globally. 

A Crypto Coin Is Gobbling Up U.S. Treasuries
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/08/business/stablecoins-crypto-treasuries-risks.html
A new generation of cryptocurrency, pegged to the dollar, is growing rapidly, promising faster payments and potentially lower interest rates. But regulators and bankers warn of risks. 

Is the Stablecoin Economy Structurally Sound?
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/stablecoins-tokenization-blockchain-safety-reliability-cant-be-assumed-by-neha-narula-2026-03
If stablecoins and tokenized assets become systemically important, blockchains will become a form of systemically important infrastructure. But this shift will bring new risks, because not all blockchains are created equal, and they have largely avoided the degree of scrutiny the public expects of critical infrastructure.

Bonds and Geopolitics

Bonds Are Still Safe--If You Know How to Pick Them
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/bonds-are-still-safe--if-you-know-how-to-pick-them-86075.html 

Investors Sell Global Bonds as Middle East Crisis Stokes Inflation Worries
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investors-sell-global-bonds-as-middle-east-crisis-stokes-inflation-worries-15a12d9d
The market is focused on the inflationary impact of higher energy prices rather than the safe-haven nature of bonds.
 
Asian Government Bonds Fall as Middle East Conflict Stokes Inflation Fears
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/asian-government-bonds-fall-as-middle-east-conflict-stokes-inflation-fears-982d9944
Rising energy prices are outweighing safe-haven demand for bonds, analysts say.

Mideast Conflict - Global Repercussions

The cynical opportunities of ‘Epic Fury’
https://www.ft.com/content/ff712094-c211-428e-aaca-c8a60d7c7de2
With this US administration, the best bet is that a business deal is to be reached with Iran.

U.S. Success Against Iran Could Be a Game Changer for World Oil Security
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-s-success-against-iran-could-be-a-game-changer-for-world-oil-security-38b705a9
Changed regimes in Iran and Venezuela would neutralize two of the world’s most disruptive oil powers.

 
9 Million Indians Live in the Persian Gulf. The Money They Send Home Is a Lifeline.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/business/india-workers-iran-persian-gulf.html
A huge number of Indians spend their lives hopping across the Arabian Sea — remitting billions of dollars a year, supporting their families and the Indian economy.

War-Induced Inflation Spike Looms Over Europe’s Economic Recovery
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/business/iran-oil-gas-europe-inflation-economy.html
Europe has been encouraged by better-than-expected economic growth. A disruption to energy supplies from the Middle East could knock it off course. 

Mideast crisis highlights risk of dollar liquidity shock
https://www.reuters.com/markets/mideast-crisis-highlights-risk-dollar-liquidity-shock-2026-03-04/

Financial Sector Risks

Wall Street Faces Its Biggest Crisis of Confidence in Years
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/business/private-credit-crisis-blue-owl-capital.html
Lending troubles at Blue Owl Capital and other so-called private credit behemoths are setting off fears of a “bank run,” as one hedge fund put it.

They Built the Hottest Firm on Wall Street. Now They Have to Save It.
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/blue-owl-private-credit-downfall-b657a53a
Doug Ostrover and Marc Lipschultz made Blue Owl a private-credit behemoth with bets on software, AI and individual investors. It is starting to show cracks.
 
Retail investors shun private credit funds after Blue Owl gating
https://www.ft.com/content/ea11d307-73af-4403-840d-b47dffce9cd0
Fears mount that outflows may soon overwhelm inflows to some of largest players.
 
Blue Owl turmoil adds to strain in $2 trillion US private credit sector
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/blue-owl-turmoil-adds-strain-2-trillion-us-private-credit-sector-2026-02-27/
 
Banks’ capital steroid use warrants extra scrutiny
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/banks-capital-steroid-use-warrants-extra-scrutiny-2026-03-02/
In athletics, performance-enhancing drugs aren't necessarily banned per se. It's sometimes a question of how often a substance is used, and in what dose. A similar principle applies to "risk transfer" deals, through which Western banks have flattered their equity ratios by shifting losses on 750 billion euros ($885 billion) of loans. It's a broadly safe piece of financial engineering. Yet the sector’s rapid growth and changing nature mean it’s time regulators and shareholders pushed for better disclosure. 

Gen Z Is Unprepared for the Workplace

A New Lost Generation: Why Gen Z Is Unprepared for the Workplace
https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/gen-z-worker-skills-294463f6
Young employees often don’t have the skills they need to navigate organizations. Leaders need to understand the problem, and how to fill the gaps. 

Is the US Addicted to War?

The United States Is Still Addicted to War
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/02/trump-iran-war-united-states-addicted/
Why every U.S. president ends up in a major military campaign.
 
Trump Spent Years Denouncing U.S. Intervention. Now He’s Toppling Foreign Leaders.
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/trump-iran-us-regime-change-a6f60e6b
The operation in Iran marked a sharp reversal for a president whose political rise was fueled by American fatigue with regime change.

The Perils of a Power Vacuum in Iran
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/power-vacuum-in-iran-heightens-nuclear-threat-by-stephen-holmes-2026-03

The US sees regimes it can strike and concludes that striking them resolves the dangers they pose. But eliminating a visible adversary does not neutralize the underlying threat; it merely transforms that threat into something elusive, decentralized, unaccountable, and impossible to negotiate with or monitor.  

Colonization and Path Dependency

Abad, L., Maurer, N. The long shadow of history? the impact of colonial labor institutions on economic development in Peru. J Econ Growth 30, 521–565 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-024-09249-9
Abstract
We examine a canonical case of forced labor: the mita and the encomienda in colonial Peru. The mita was a labor draft designed to provide workers for mines, churches, and public works in colonial Peru and Bolivia. The encomienda granted a select group of Spanish settlers the right to extract labor and tribute from indigenous peoples. We examine the impact of forced labor using a dataset of 500 indigenous settlements scattered across modern-day Peru. We find that forced labor gravely impacted the Peruvian communities subjected to it, but the effects nearly dissipated before the end of the colonial period (1532-1811). We test for a possible “reversal of fortune” in the postcolonial period by looking at an array of variables for the 19th to the 21st centuries (literacy, access to land, road density, and luminosity) and find no significant differences. The results hold when we examine the mita and encomienda separately. The mechanisms that caused its impact to fade were migration, growing outside options for indigenous labor, and opposition from the Crown and new Spanish settlers who lacked access to forced labor. 

Dell, M. Persistence and transformation in economic development. Ind. Econ. Rev. 56, 285–311 (2021).
https://doi.org/10.1007/s41775-021-00122-9  
Abstract
Much work in economic history has been done to study patterns of development in the USA and Europe. However, insights from other areas and regions are also required to better inform policy today that helps elucidate how policy interacts with the broader historical and institutional context and how the effects of these policies unfold over time. In this light, the paper focuses on illustrations from previous works of the author on extractive colonial institutions and their persistent effects on development paths later on. The first example is of the Peruvian mining mita. Here, the natives of Peru were forced by the Spanish to work in silver mines. The study focusses on the persistence of differential land tenures and public goods provision. The second example, a joint work with Ben Olken, considers Java's cultivation system in the 19th century, where the Javanese were forced to produce sugar that was sold in the world market by the Dutch. It shows that the sugar factory areas of the 19th century are more industrialized today. They are richer with better infrastructure and education levels as compared to the nearby counterfactual locations.

The Treasury Trap

Iran war traps Treasuries investors in stagflationary oil dilemma
https://www.reuters.com/markets/iran-war-traps-treasuries-investors-stagflationary-oil-dilemma-2026-03-02/
U.S. Treasuries just clocked their best month in a year. But with war suddenly raging in the Middle East, investors must decide whether safe-haven demand will accelerate the bond market rally or if an inflationary surge in oil prices will send it screeching into reverse. 

Tariffs and Corruption

The Big Problem with Tariffs Isn’t the Rates. It’s the Corruption.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/02/opinion/tariffs-trump-corruption.html 

Credentials, Certificates, and the Job Market

Professional credentials and certifications are booming, but 'many of them are crap'
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/professional-credentials-and-certifications-are-booming-but-many-of-them-are-crap-170138114.html/
 
The credential boom is here, but which ones actually help workers?
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/credential-boom-which-ones-help-workers/ 

Dangote's Mission

This Billionaire Traded Glam for a Mission to Industrialize Nigeria
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/27/world/africa/nigeria-dangote-refinery.html
Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man, has an ambitious vision for the continent’s most populous nation, but hurdles stand in his way. 

Retirement Savings

4 Ways to Enjoy Your Savings in Retirement Without Going Broke
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/28/business/retirement-savings-spending-finances.html
Once paychecks stop, it can be frightening to shift out of the savings habit. But there are strategies to enjoy your nest egg and make it last.  

Why more retirees are moving abroad — and where they're settling
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-more-retirees-are-moving-abroad--and-where-theyre-settling-143031133.html/