Rise and Fall of Zoomtowns

RIP Zoomtowns by James Rodriguez  
https://www.businessinsider.com/zoomtowns-real-estate-price-cuts-housing-market-winners-midwest-northeast-2025-10
Just a few years ago, housing markets in the warm, sunny parts of the US looked, well … warm and sunny. In the halcyon days of 2021 and 2022, cities like Austin, Tampa, Phoenix, and Atlanta attracted swarms of movers. Home listings reliably drew multiple offers above the asking price, and buyers plunked down all-cash offers to fast-track their purchases.
Flash forward to today, and the big "winners" of the work-from-home reshuffle — metros that drew hordes of footloose workers and disaffected coastal dwellers — have turned into losers. Fewer people are moving to so-called Zoomtowns. Home listings are piling up on the market. Prices are dropping.   

Law School Popularity - A Recession Indicator?

Why Is Going to Law School So Popular Again?
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/why-is-going-to-law-school-so-popular-again-84683.html
Bloomberg’s Justin Fox notes:
Law school has long served as a fallback for college graduates with reasonably good grades who can’t find good jobs or just can’t decide what they want to do when they grow up. With generative artificial intelligence possibly behind the hiring slowdown for young grads and definitely driving uncertainty about the future of white-collar work, there are surely more recent graduates in this position now than a few years ago. With the Trump administration on the warpath against federal civil servants and an unsettling recent barrage of corporate layoff announcements, it’s not just recent college graduates, either. The rise in law school applications may well be a warning sign of economic distress. 

Wall Street Equity Research - Mostly Useless?

Fiserv’s Only Bear Is a 26-Year-Old Analyst Who Beat Wall Street
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fiserv-only-bear-26-old-214013951.html
Fiserv’s blowup is the latest event to shine a light on an oft-cited bug in Wall Street’s research machine: The overly optimistic analysis often produced by the people charged with keeping investors abreast of companies’ strengths and weaknesses. Data compiled by Bloomberg show that only 5% of the ratings on S&P 500 companies are “sells.”
An extreme example of the trend came earlier this year, when shares of insurance giant UnitedHealth Group Inc — which sported a “buy” ratio of 97% — nosedived after the company slashed its annual forecast, replaced its chief executive officer and disclosed it is facing civil and criminal investigations over its businesses from the Justice Department. 

Value of the Scientific Method

Investors have forgotten the scientific method
https://www.reuters.com/markets/investors-have-forgotten-scientific-method-2025-10-31
Since the 1980s, technological advances have made data more widely available, facilitating abundant, sound research that has expanded our knowledge of how the market functions. And some of this research has involved rigorous testing and advanced statistical analysis.
Investors must nevertheless continue to be discriminating with respect to allegedly expert advice. Protecting their financial wellbeing depends on conscientiously differentiating between mere hypotheses – flat-out assertions based solely on opinion – and conclusions grounded in rigorous analysis that follows the scientific method. 

Housing Demand

More Home Purchases Are Falling Through in an Uncertain Economy
https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/more-home-purchases-are-falling-through-in-an-uncertain-economy-b58fe8cd
Buyers worried about job prospects are getting cold feet, or realizing that costs will be higher than expected. 

The AI Bubble Will (Eventually) Burst

Here’s How the AI Crash Happens
https://www.aol.com/articles/ai-crash-happens-215009627.html
 
Big Tech’s A.I. Spending Is Accelerating (Again)
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/31/technology/ai-spending-accelerating.html
Despite the risk of a bubble, Google, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon plan to spend billions more on artificial intelligence than they already do.
 
Big Tech Is Spending More Than Ever on AI and It’s Still Not Enough
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/big-tech-is-spending-more-than-ever-on-ai-and-its-still-not-enough-f2398cfe
Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon have said they will increase spending in 2026. Investors have given mixed signals.
 
How OpenAI Uses Complex and Circular Deals to Fuel Its Multibillion-Dollar Rise
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/10/31/technology/openai-fundraising-deals.html
Here are seven unusual financial agreements helping to drive the ambitions of the poster child of the A.I. revolution. 

AI and the Electric Grid

Why the Price of Electricity Is Spiking Around the U.S.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/30/climate/electricity-prices.html
Not all states have gotten hit equally hard. The reasons are complex.
 
Inside the Data Centers That Train A.I. and Drain the Electrical Grid
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/11/03/inside-the-data-centers-that-train-ai-and-drain-the-electrical-grid
A data center, which can use as much electricity as Philadelphia, is the new American factory, creating the future and propping up the economy. How long can this last? 

Does AI Make Us More or Less Productive?

Are LLMs making us less productive?
https://www.ft.com/content/24802151-1cd9-4a4b-b0b1-aa937a6a6606
When it comes to assessing our own work performance we are not always reliable witnesses. 

US State Capacity

The U.S. Government’s Repair Bills Are Coming Due
https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/29/trump-outsourcing-austerity-shutdown-united-states-government/
Decades of accumulated technical debt have hollowed out state capacity. 

The Trouble with Abundance

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/democrats-cannot-build-a-political-strategy-on-abundance-by-jeffrey-frankel-2025-10

In a book released earlier this year, Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson argue essentially for “competent capacity”: a US that can effectively plan, approve, and execute projects. That is a worthy goal, but “abundance” is probably not the clearest way to convey it, let alone the most effective means of achieving it.

EM Resilience

Asia’s Economic Growth Is Weathering Tariffs and Uncertainty
https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2025/10/16/asias-economic-growth-is-weathering-tariffs-and-uncertainty
 
Emerging Market Resilience: Good Luck or Good Policies?
https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2025/October/English/ch2.ashx 

The Art of the Deal - China Style

The Art of Letting Trump Claim a Win, While Walking Away Stronger
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/30/world/asia/china-trump-xi-trade.html
By withholding soybean purchases and rare-earth exports, China extracted relief from U.S. tariffs and delayed export controls, without conceding much in return. 

Trump's Communication Style

Trump and the Presidency That Wouldn’t Shut Up
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/11/03/how-the-president-talks-to-the-people
His posts and rants are omnipresent, ugly, and unhinged. Don’t look to history to make it make sense. 

Tackling Global Development Challenges

The Global Polytunity
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/polycrisis-is-actually-opportunity-to-transform-global-development-paradigm-by-yuen-yuen-ang-2025-10
Western leaders favor the language of “polycrisis” because it obscures the root cause of our current predicament: the industrial-colonial paradigm. Instead of focusing on fear, the world must study and tackle development challenges with a purposeful realism that draws on the creativity of a genuinely global community.  

A Divided Fed

Fed lowers interest rates as it struggles to assess state of US economy without key government data
https://theconversation.com/fed-lowers-interest-rates-as-it-struggles-to-assess-state-of-us-economy-without-key-government-data-267204

Fed Divisions Reveal New Caution Over Continued Cuts
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-divisions-reveal-new-caution-over-continued-cuts-4cf868af
Powell forcefully warned against assuming another rate cut is a done deal as officials navigate an economy where spending is solid but hiring has slowed.
 
Future Fed Rate Cuts ‘Far’ From Certain After Divided Meeting
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-cuts-interest-rates-federal-reserve-by-another-quarter-point-but-data-blackout-obscures-the-path-ahead-0268bdf6
Chair Jerome Powell injected new doubt by highlighting a “growing chorus” of officials who are wary about further reductions.
 
The Federal Reserve Won’t Pull Away the Punchbowl
https://www.aei.org/op-eds/the-federal-reserve-wont-pull-away-the-punchbowl/ 

Is the US Labor Shifting?

US job market is now 'no hire, more fire'
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-job-market-is-now-no-hire-more-fire-2025-10-29/
The U.S. labor market has been characterized as a 'no hire, no fire' landscape for much of the past year. But 'no hire, more fire' increasingly looks more accurate, providing further ammunition for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

State of US Manufacturing

U.S. Manufacturing’s Mixed Picture in 4 Charts
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/29/business/mixed-picture-united-states-manufacturing-in-four-charts.html 

The Four and Five Trillion Dollar Club

Nvidia Becomes First $5 Trillion Company
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/nvidia-first-5-trillion-company-market-cap-ae513ff0
The company’s shares have been boosted by the AI boom and a flurry of new deals.

Apple and Microsoft’s valuation hit $4tn as stock market bubble fears grow
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/10/28/apple-microsoft-valuation4tn-stock-market-bubble-fears/
The tech behemoths added billions to their market capitalizations, amid growing excitement around AI. 

Capital versus Labor

Tens of Thousands of White-Collar Jobs Are Vanishing as AI Starts to Bite
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/white-collar-jobs-ai-324b749c
Layoffs at companies ranging from Amazon to Target are sending young and experienced workers alike into an unwelcoming market.

Can AI replace junior workers?
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2025/10/13/can-ai-replace-junior-workers

Why UPS Is Increasingly Turning to Gig Drivers for Deliveries

https://www.wsj.com/business/logistics/why-ups-is-increasingly-turning-to-gig-drivers-for-deliveries-aded8b08
The company has cut thousands of drivers as it tries to improve profitability.

How U.S. Billionaires Stack Up with the Rest of the World
https://www.wsj.com/business/billionaire-wealth-us-world-comparison-0120988a
There are 3,508 billionaires on the planet. Americans dominate their collective wealth. 

A Positive Take on the AI Revolution

What AI Means for Growth and Jobs
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ai-will-boost-productivity-growth-without-harming-jobs-by-philippe-aghion-et-al-2025-10
While many commentators warn that AI will undermine employment and offer only modest productivity gains, empirical studies continue to suggest otherwise. With the right policies in place, the technology holds immense potential to drive both growth and employment. 

The end of the rip-off economy
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/10/27/the-end-of-the-rip-off-economy
From finance and medicine to used cars, artificial intelligence is radically improving market efficiency.

Stablecoins Go Mainstream

Western Union, Early Telegraph Pioneer, Joins the Crypto Arms Race
https://www.wsj.com/finance/western-union-early-telegraph-pioneer-joins-the-crypto-arms-race-a0aa7f02
The company plans to launch its own stablecoin in 2026 to send money around the globe, a move that might lower customer costs and settle transactions faster. 

Who Benefits from the One Big Beautiful Bill?

Private Jets and Car Washes Are the Latest Tax Shields for the Ultrarich
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/private-jets-and-car-washes-are-the-latest-tax-shields-for-the-ultrarich-84625.html
The key reason: a tax break solidified in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that allows people with businesses to fully write off purchases of private jets in the year they buy them. 

Will the Private Credit Bubble Burst?

A Private-Credit Winter Is Coming
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/a-private-credit-winter-is-coming-cb016ec5
Lenders quietly rewrite their collateral rules, which suggests a crisis waiting to happen.
 
City piles billions into shadow banking despite risk of ‘cockroaches’
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/10/27/the-city-is-running-scared-of-shadow-bankings-cockroaches/
Finance giants on the back foot amid fears their push into private credit could go horribly wrong 

How Bad Is Finance’s Cockroach Problem? We Are About to Find Out. 
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/27/opinion/financial-market-credit-loans.html

Do Vibes Matter?

The Good Vibes Are Back on Wall Street
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/global-stocks-markets-dow-news-10-27-2025-492733ee

Earnings, deals and trade talks helped send all three major U.S. stock indexes to records, marking a significant pickup in momentum after a bumpy stretch. 

CEO Vibes Are as Misleading as Consumer Angst
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/ceo-vibes-are-as-misleading-as-consumer-angst-84539.html

Food Deliveries and Demise of the Restaurant Culture

The Innovation That’s Killing Restaurant Culture
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/innovation-killing-restaurant-culture-191511151.html
Ellen Cushing:
In 2024, nearly three out of every four restaurant orders were not eaten in a restaurant, according to data provided to me by the National Restaurant Association, a trade group. The share of customers using delivery specifically, as opposed to picking up takeout or going to a drive-through, more than doubled from 2019 to 2024. In a recently released poll by the association, 41 percent of respondents said that delivery was “an essential part of their lifestyle.” For Millennials and Generation Z—the apex consumers of today, and of tomorrow too—it’s apparently even more essential: More than half of adults under 45 use delivery at least once a week, and 13 percent use it once a day. 

China's Energy Transition

Charting China's evolving primary energy mix through 2060
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/charting-chinas-evolving-primary-energy-mix-through-2060-2025-10-28/ 

A Consumption Target for China

China Needs a Consumption Target
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-five-year-plan-must-set-target-for-household-consumption-as-share-of-gdp-by-stephen-s-roach-2025-10
As Chinese leaders prepare the 15th Five-Year Plan, early signs indicate that it will focus on continuing China’s extraordinary technological ascendancy. But they should be more concerned with boosting consumer demand, which means setting a clear target of raising household consumption to 50% of GDP by 2035. 

Related:

Can China Catch Up with the US Economically?
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-will-avoid-the-middle-income-trap-but-fail-to-outgrow-the-us-economy-by-keun-lee-2025-10

Jobless Growth

The AI rollout is here - and it's messy | FT Working It
https://youtu.be/GY_Ywqd3mzA

More Big Companies Bet They Can Still Grow Without Hiring
https://www.wsj.com/business/companies-hiring-jobs-ai-9ef675b6  
JPMorgan Chase has a “strong bias” against adding staff, while Walmart is keeping its head

count flat.

Goldman economists on the Gen Z hiring nightmare: ‘Jobless growth’ is probably the new normal
https://fortune.com/2025/10/14/goldman-economists-gen-z-hiring-nightmare-low-fire-hire-jobless-growth-normal

Amazon Lays Off 14,000 Corporate Workers
https://www.wsj.com/tech/amazon-to-layoff-tens-of-thousands-of-corporate-workers-056ebc4d
The cuts are the first ​step in layoffs expected to ​affect up to 30,000 jobs​, or ​about 10% of the online giant’s white-collar workforce.

UPS Cuts 48,000 Jobs in Management and Operations
https://www.wsj.com/business/logistics/united-parcel-service-ups-q3-earnings-report-2025-stock-jobs-layoffs-1d954f75
The shipper disclosed 34,000 job cuts in operations as its chief executive is under pressure to reverse a long slump in the company’s stock price.

The Tyranny of the Low-Quality Job
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-27/the-tyranny-of-the-low-quality-job-it-s-not-a-way-out-of-poverty 

Trust, Democracy, and Economic Growth

Fareed's Take: Democracy's crisis of faith
https://youtu.be/nx1UGyfJiVo
 
Polarization paralyses the US economy
https://www.ft.com/content/20376247-58eb-4ba8-92ff-39188cd352f9

Delivering for Democracy: Why Results Matter
https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/delivering-for-democracy-why-results-matter
 
When do people trust their government?
https://eprints.lse.ac.uk/127880/1/When_do_people_trust_their_government.31March25.pdf
 
Growth Experiences and Trust in Government
https://cepr.org/publications/dp20062
 
Trust and state effectiveness: The political economy of compliance
https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueae030
 
Measuring Trust
https://doi.org/10.1162/003355300554926 

France - A 'Hot Mess'

Moody’s Puts France on Watch for a Credit Downgrade. Why It’s Become a ‘Hot Mess.’
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/french-bond-prices-decline-unexpected-101110279.html 

MS in Quantitative Economics Programs

MS Applied Economics and Econometrics
https://dornsife.usc.edu/econ/masters
Master of Quantitative Economics
https://master.econ.ucla.edu
MS Quantitative Economics
https://as.nyu.edu/departments/econ/graduate/ms.html
MS Economics
https://econ.wisc.edu/masters/admission
MS in Quantitative Economics and Finance
https://economics.ucsc.edu/academics/ms-program
MS in Quantitative Economics
https://www.bu.edu/econ/academics/masters-programs/ms-quantitative-economics
Master of Science in Quantitative Economics
https://www.mqe.pitt.edu
Master of Science in Quantitative Economics
https://sc.edu/study/colleges_schools/moore/study/economics/degree_programs/master_of_arts_in_economics 

Cryptos and Sanction Evasion

How Venezuela’s Autocrat Uses Crypto to Fight Trump’s Sanctions
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/26/world/americas/trump-maduro-venezuela-economy.html
President Nicolás Maduro’s opponents hope a new period of economic pain will finally topple his government. He is using cryptocurrency to hold on. 

AI's Impact on Humanity: It's Complicated

The Age of De-Skilling: Will AI stretch our minds—or stunt them?  by Kwame Anthony Appiah
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/age-skilling-100000948.html

Will AI Bury Future Generations in Cognitive Debt?
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ai-destroying-traditional-career-automating-learning-by-doing-by-bertrand-badre-and-florian-ingen-housz-2025-10
As companies seek to automate repetitive tasks in the name of cost-cutting, they should consider the longer-term implications. If we transfer all codified knowledge to machines, we will bequeath to future generations a world where it will be ever harder to learn by doing, to achieve mastery, and thus to aspire to creative freedom.

 

What past education technology failures can teach us about the future of AI in schools

https://theconversation.com/what-past-education-technology-failures-can-teach-us-about-the-future-of-ai-in-schools-265172

 

AI Is Hollowing Out Higher Education

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ai-will-not-save-higher-education-but-may-destroy-it-by-olivia-guest-and-iris-van-rooij-2025-10

While the AI industry claims its models can “think,” “reason,” and “learn,” their supposed achievements rest on marketing hype and stolen intellectual labor. In reality, AI erodes academic freedom, weakens critical reading, and subordinates the pursuit of knowledge to corporate interests. 

International Equities Outperform US Equities in 2025

U.S. Stocks Are Breaking Records. The Rest of the World Is Doing Better.
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/u-s-stocks-are-breaking-records-the-rest-of-the-world-is-doing-better-8e1005be
A benchmark for international equities is on pace to outperform the S&P 500 by the widest margin since 2009.
 
Related:
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/ned-davis-research-grows-wary-on-u-s--stocks-versus-rest-of-world-84620.html 

Gerrymandering and the American Democracy

Gerrymandering 
https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v47/n19/aziz-huq/short-cuts
The notion that democratic elections are supposed to allow voters to make a real choice between candidates, or even kick out the bums in power, sits uneasily with the combination of untrammelled redistricting power and predictable political preferences that characterise the US today.

What to Know About Redistricting and Gerrymandering
https://bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/redistricting-and-gerrymandering-what-to-know/
 
America Is Fracturing into Red and Blue Nations, Redistricting Fight Shows
https://www.wsj.com/politics/us-gerrymandering-political-divide-a2a83a28
Less than 20% of Americans live in a state where the minority party has a meaningful voice in governance.
 
How did we get all this gerrymandering? A short history of the Republican redistricting scheme
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/aug/09/gerrymandering-republican-redistricting
A plan to redistrict states to benefit Republicans was conceived of 15 years ago. It’s been an enormous success. 

A Warning from Across the Atlantic for Both Democrats and Republicans
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/opinion/britain-democrats-republicans-labour.html

America’s Zombie Democracy
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/09/america-authoritarian-regime-ai-suicide/684350/

Free-speech hypocrisy is a symptom of the democratic decay that leads to authoritarianism. 

The Death of Competition in American Elections
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/23/us/politics/us-elections-gerrymandering.html
Most 2024 legislature races were decided by low-turnout or meaningless primaries. The trend is making politics more polarized and eroding public trust. 

US: The Casino Economy

It Is Trump’s Casino Economy Now. You’ll Probably Lose.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/26/opinion/trump-economy-casino.html
Donald Trump campaigned on bringing back American manufacturing and rebuilding what America once was — factories, workers in hard hats — from the ground up. But the investment needed to get there, in both the factories and the workers, hasn’t happened. What he has ushered in instead is a casino economy, built on speculation and risk. Across markets and policy, wagers on the future are being made with other people’s money at a cost that could prove catastrophic. 

The Economy That’s Great for Parents, Lousy for Their Grown-Up Kids
https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance/old-young-economic-divide-7a5203f0
Many older Americans are financially comfortable, but they worry their adult children won’t achieve the same kind of economic stability.

Government shutdown hasn’t left US consumers glum about the economy – for now, at least
https://theconversation.com/government-shutdown-hasnt-left-us-consumers-glum-about-the-economy-for-now-at-least-267264

The Rise and Fall of Civilizations

The Geopolitical Significance of Historical Precedent
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/historical-precedents-for-geopolitical-uncertainty-can-help-shape-response-by-jacques-attali-2025-10
The cycle of rise and decline over the centuries has established some basic tenets of power, including that civilizations can still collapse even when they are set up for success. This lesson is relevant for today’s world, in which short-termism and populism risk derailing what should be a bright future.  

Dollar's Exorbitant Privilege

Exorbitant Pillage
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/exorbitant-pillage-lael-brainard
Can the U.S. Dollar Survive the U.S. Government?

Overseas renminbi lending surges as China steps up campaign to de-dollarize
https://www.ft.com/content/4577100f-8b71-4647-8e7e-fead115d9552
Beijing’s push will speed moves to multi-polar monetary system, analysts say.

Dollar's haven status may have always been a mirage
https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/dollars-haven-status-may-have-always-been-mirage-2025-09-08 

China is ditching the dollar, fast
https://www.economist.com/china/2025/09/10/china-is-ditching-the-dollar-fast
Officials believe that the yuan has finally come of age.

Related:

Dollar collapse: The crisis is no longer just theoretical by Vivekanand Jayakumar, The Hill - 04/28/25
https://thehill.com/opinion/5270094-trump-tariffs-dollar-decline/ 

Big Tech’s Predatory Platform Model

Big Tech’s Predatory Platform Model Doesn’t Have to Be Our Future
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/25/opinion/big-tech-platforms-reform.html 

Kissinger Biography

Kissinger, a new two-part, three-hour biography
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/films/kissinger/

It’s (Still) Henry Kissinger’s World
https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/24/henry-kissinger-pbs-documentary-review/
A new documentary argues Nixon’s secretary of state learned the wrong lessons from his experiences with Nazi Germany. 

Politics and Economics - Debates Surrounding Public Debt

Rich country debt will spur tax and price hikes
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/rich-country-debt-will-spur-tax-price-hikes-2025-10-27/
Government borrowing is heading towards 100% of global GDP and is unsustainable in the US and much of Europe. There is also huge pressure to increase spending on climate, defence and ageing populations. Some mixture of higher taxes and inflation will ultimately be unavoidable.

The Perils of Economic Centrism in a Polarized World
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/loneliness-of-the-centrist-economist-by-kenneth-rogoff-2025-10
Few ideas in economics have been as misrepresented as the link between debt and growth. More than a decade ago, a prominent analysis was falsely cast as a call for austerity when, in fact, it showed something far more mundane: countries burdened by heavy debt often have limited room to invest or respond when crises strike.  

The Economist Special Report: Governments going broke

https://www.economist.com/special-report/2025-10-18

Related:
Investors beware: Fiscal dominance and financial repression ahead by VIVEKANAND JAYAKUMAR, The Hill - 07/13/25
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5397963-fed-keeping-rates-low-trump-administration/  

Asset Bubbles and Financial Sector Risks

How a stock market collapse can lead to a slump
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/how-stock-market-collapse-can-lead-slump-2025-10-23

Why Bubbles Can Keep Inflating in Plain Sight
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/why-bubbles-can-keep-inflating-in-plain-sight-a4af6aef
Bulls hope incessant bubble talk is a contrarian signal to buy AI stocks. It isn’t. 

Back to 3%

CPI Inflation
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf

Getting Used to 3% Inflation
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/inflation-3-percent-consumer-prices-washington-federal-reserve-jerome-powell-4829ae34
Prices keep rising, but the White House is calling it a victory.

 
Companies Have Shielded Buyers from Tariffs. But Not for Long.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/business/economy/companies-have-shielded-buyers-from-tariffs-but-not-for-long.html
Cars, toys and tea are among products set to get more expensive as tariffs weigh on corporate profits. 

AI and Capex Spending

American big business faces a $1trn capex question
https://www.economist.com/business/2025/10/23/american-big-business-faces-a-1trn-capex-question
Looking under the bonnet of the non-AI economy. 

It’s Not Just Rich Countries. Tech’s Trillion-Dollar Bet on AI Is Everywhere.
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/its-not-just-rich-countries-techs-trillion-dollar-bet-on-ai-is-everywhere-1781a117
As part of ‘AI decolonization,’ developing nations push Silicon Valley to build locally.

Libertarianism and Autocracy

How a Fringe Movement of Gun Nuts, Backwoodsmen and Free Marketers Paved the Way for Autocracy
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/opinion/crypto-trump-libertarianism-corruption.html 

India and Global Demographics

India’s Most Valuable Export: Tens of Millions of Workers
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/business/india-labor-mobility-migration-germany-japan.html
India plans to send its vast work force abroad to countries with labor shortages, like Germany and Japan. 

Related:

Are we worried about the wrong demographic problem? By Vivekanand Jayakumar
https://thehill.com/opinion/4954154-falling-birth-rates-global-economy/ 

Time to Get Rid of Legacy Admissions

A Backlash Is Growing Against Another Elite College Practice: ‘Legacy’ Admissions
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/education/legacy-college-admissions-preferences-backlash-772c88be
Advocates who helped abolish affirmative action have set their sights on the longtime practice of giving preferences to the children of alumni. 

Reagan on Free Trade

Ontario Ad:

 
President Reagan's Radio Address on Free and Fair Trade on April 25, 1987
https://youtu.be/5t5QK03KXPc

Related:

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/29/opinion/trump-reagan-tariffs-canada.html

The Reagan foundation did Trump a solid on tariffs – at the expense of Reagan’s ideals
https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/25/politics/reagan-foundation-trump-tariffs

Tariffs are a weaker weapon than Trump thinks
https://www.ft.com/content/afdd9fd5-ba70-42e8-8046-c03c053c528b
Access to the US market is not the significant point of leverage the president believes it to be.

 
Supply-Chain Economics Beats Tariff Politics
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/america-will-pay-price-for-misunderstanding-supply-chain-dynamics-by-jun-du-2025-10 

The German Economy

The German Economic Miracle, Then and Now
https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/german-postwar-economic-miracle-revisited-by-barry-eichengreen-2025-10
Why did Germany, defeated in both World War I and WWII, recover so strongly after the latter, but not after the former? Two new books suggest that conventional accounts of the Wirtschaftswunder – West Germany’s miraculous economic ascent after WWII – get it wrong. 

Making Germany Grow Again
https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/Fandd/Article/2025/06/Malmendier.ashx

Germany’s much-ballyhooed “autumn of reforms” is a damp squib
https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/10/23/germanys-much-ballyhooed-autumn-of-reforms-is-a-damp-squib
Friedrich Merz’s government is drifting as the economy stagnates.

Quantum Computing Breakthrough

Google’s Quantum Computer Makes a Big Technical Leap
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/22/technology/googles-quantum-computer-leap.html
Designed to accelerate advances in medicine and other fields, the tech giant’s quantum algorithm runs 13,000 times as fast as software written for a traditional supercomputer. 

Prediction Markets and Sports Betting

NHL Deal with Kalshi, Polymarket Adds to Pressure on Sports-Betting Companies
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/nhl-deal-with-kalshi-polymarket-adds-to-pressure-on-sports-betting-companies-2b06ebeb
The licensing agreement is the first of its kind between a major U.S. professional sports league and prediction markets. 

The Problem with Excessive Leverage

Popular Leveraged Funds Shock Investors with Huge Losses
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/popular-leveraged-funds-shock-investors-with-huge-losses-5714f1ac
Some funds that offer to double single-stock moves have veered sharply off course from the shares they track. 

AI Disrupts the Labor Market

AI Destroys the Old Learning Curve
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/ai-destroys-the-old-learning-curve-41ac8599
Wright’s Law is being rewritten, and leaders who don’t adapt to this new world will be replaced.
 
Amazon Plans to Replace More Than Half a Million Jobs with Robots
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/21/technology/inside-amazons-plans-to-replace-workers-with-robots.html
 
Amazon Testing New Warehouse Robots and AI Tools for Workers
https://www.wsj.com/tech/amazon-testing-new-warehouse-robots-and-ai-tools-for-workers-8e3d885a
Retail giant invests in technologies to help it ship ever more packages with less human labor. 

Could AI help identify skill in fund managers?
https://www.ft.com/content/23992b20-f00f-4fba-b466-01a7476a1744
As the market bubble builds, research shows progress in spotting investors who produce fundamental value.
 
Meet the AI chatbots replacing India's call-center workers
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/meet-ai-chatbots-replacing-indias-call-center-workers-2025-10-15
Rather than pump the brakes as the technology threatens jobs built on routine tasks, the country is accelerating, wagering that a let-it-rip approach will create enough new opportunities to absorb those displaced, Reuters found. The outcome of India's gamble carries weight far beyond its borders — a test case for whether embracing AI-driven disruption can elevate a developing economy or render it a cautionary tale. 

Future of Costco

Can the Golden Age of Costco Last?
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/10/27/can-the-golden-age-of-costco-last
With its standout deals and generous employment practices, the warehouse chain became a feel-good American institution. In a fraught time, it can be hard to remain beloved. 

Dostoyevsky on the Nature of Human Existence

The Light of “The Brothers Karamazov”
https://www.newyorker.com/books/second-read/the-light-of-the-brothers-karamazov
Although Fyodor Dostoyevsky wrote with wildness and urgency, he patiently insisted on asking an essential question: What are we living for? 

Choice of College Major in the Age of AI

In the age of AI, what should your kids study at university?
https://www.ft.com/content/24332e6e-513e-489e-adc3-9527449a4027
Artificial intelligence is changing the calculus when it comes to career paybacks. 

Is Monetary Policy Accommodative or Restrictive?

The Fed Might Be More Dovish Than Powell Thinks
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-22/fed-interest-rates-might-be-more-dovish-than-powell-thinks
If monetary policy isn’t actually holding back the economy, further interest-rate cuts could be an inflationary mistake.  

The Fed can’t help America’s young tech workers who are struggling to find a job
https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/25/business/tech-workers-jobs-fed

The Natural Rate of Interest Foretells America’s Fiscal Doom
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-21/natural-rate-of-interest-foretells-america-s-fiscal-doom

Circular AI Deals

Is the Flurry of Circular AI Deals a Win-Win—or Sign of a Bubble?
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/is-the-flurry-of-circular-ai-deals-a-win-winor-sign-of-a-bubble-8a2d70c5
How round-trip deals could echo history and hit a wall. 

Related:

What Does the Market Really Think About AI?
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ai-economic-potential-what-markets-are-really-saying-by-isaiah-andrews-and-maryam-farboodi-2025-10
Despite all the enthusiasm for AI, which has undoubtedly demonstrated impressive capabilities, the signal from bond markets suggests that investors are unconvinced that the technology will generate sustained or widespread growth, let alone a more extreme positive or negative outcome. What accounts for this disconnect? 

FOMO meets FOWO

FOMO meets FOWO in edgy markets
https://www.reuters.com/markets/fomo-meets-fowo-edgy-markets-2025-10-21
Investors' long-held "fear of missing out" is now vying with their "fear of wipeout", creating a peculiar situation in which there are simultaneously anxieties about all the risks that could upset today's stretched markets, as well as concerns about pulling back from an equity boom that could just keep running.
The tension between the two instincts was on full display last week. The mere suggestion of a credit wobble at U.S. regional banks sent global equities plunging and volatility spiking, yet buyers were drawn back within 24 hours. 

Bubble-talk is breaking out everywhere
https://www.ft.com/content/ce8bc257-5f06-4005-bd36-b094a9b91938

International MBAs - An Attractive Alternative

Interest in American M.B.A. Programs Shrinks
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/education/interest-in-american-m-b-a-programs-shrinks-but-schools-across-asia-are-booming-d2fb6258
Visa restrictions and worries about job security put a damper on applications to U.S. business schools. 

At The Indian School of Business, One Prof Is Using AI & VR To Build Smarter, More Strategic MBAs
https://poetsandquants.com/2025/06/30/at-the-indian-school-of-business-one-prof-is-using-ai-vr-to-build-smarter-more-strategic-mbas/
 
‘WE’RE NOT LEARNING ANYTHING’: Stanford GSB Students Sound the Alarm Over Academics
https://poetsandquants.com/2025/07/23/were-not-learning-anything-stanford-gsb-students-sound-the-alarm-over-academics/ 

Ozempic for All?

Ozempic for All
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/10/ozempic-weight-loss-data/684601/
Ensuring GLP-1s are covered by Medicaid in all states would save lives—and not be as costly as some people fear. 

The Digital Economy's Big Vulnerability

The Day Amazon Broke the Internet for Millions of Americans
https://www.wsj.com/tech/aws-outage-impact-what-happened-becce0e7
The prolonged outage offered a reminder of the fragility of global internet connectivity and Amazon’s role underpinning much of online infrastructure.

Amazon failure exposes our dangerous digital dependencies
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/10/20/amazon-failure-exposes-our-dangerous-digital-dependencies/
Critics say web blackout should act as a wake-up call for our reliance on a handful of tech giants.
 
What Is Amazon Web Services?
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/20/business/amazon-web-services-aws-down-what.html
The cloud-computing division of the internet giant is used by thousands of internet customers, many of whom reported disruptions on Monday. 

Stocks at Record High - Cause for Concern?

The Warning Signs Lurking Below the Surface of a Record Market
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-warning-signs-lurking-below-the-surface-of-a-record-market-a1db25d4
Investors have turned to industries that reliably churn out profits as they pull back from holdings more sensitive to a slowing economy. 

Are We in a Financial Bubble?
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ai-bubble-market-signals-to-watch-by-dambisa-moyo-2025-10
While there is ample reason to believe that AI-driven investments are in bubble territory, the real question is when – and how – the end might come. For anyone hazarding a guess, the lessons of past bubbles, combined with key financial-market indicators, offer a useful guide. 
 
Why gold and stocks are partying together
https://www.ft.com/content/f54be5f0-7d6b-43b5-8aad-a4b9d7e3cae5

Volatility Returns to Stalk the Stock Market
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/volatility-returns-to-stalk-the-stock-market-342b2ec0
Wall Street’s “fear gauge” touched its highest midday level since late April. The abrupt end of the calmest stretch in years rattled traders and left many betting that the swings will continue.

Can Gold Keep Rising? Depends if You Think This Time Is Different
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/gold-prices-rise-is-it-possible-f667b8b8
The danger is that gold is in the grip of the sort of speculative excess that creates bubbles in other parts of the financial system. 

Happy Diwali

What to Know About Diwali, the Hindu Festival of Lights
https://www.nytimes.com/article/diwali-india-festival-lights.html
The biggest public holiday in India, Diwali features prayers for prosperity and good fortune — and lots of sweets. 

AI, Energy, Environment, and Economic Growth

From Mexico to Ireland, Fury Mounts Over a Global A.I. Frenzy
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/20/technology/ai-data-center-backlash-mexico-ireland.html
As tech companies build data centers worldwide to advance artificial intelligence, vulnerable communities have been hit by blackouts and water shortages. 
 
How Chile Embodies A.I.’s No-Win Politics
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/20/technology/chile-ai-politics.html
Political debates have flared across Chile over artificial intelligence. Should the nation pour billions into A.I. and risk public backlash, or risk being left behind?  

Energy transition set to divide manufacturers across the Atlantic
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/energy-transition-set-divide-manufacturers-across-atlantic-2025-10-17/
Manufacturers in North America and Europe are set to embark on starkly different power-source paths in the decades ahead, which could reshape the future prospects for goods producers on both sides of the Atlantic.

More energy means more growth, and China is crushing the West
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/10/18/more-energy-means-growth-and-china-is-crushing-the-west/
Beijing has a stranglehold over the key technologies other countries need to hit net zero. 

Significance of Blood Pressure

The blood pressure secret: everything you need to know to improve yours – and live a longer, healthier life
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2025/oct/19/the-blood-pressure-secret-everything-you-need-to-know-to-improve-yours-and-live-a-longer-healthier-life 

Immigration in Japan

Can Immigration Save Japan’s Aging Economy?

Obstfeld on International Macro

Maurice Obstfeld on trade and the international financial system
https://www.youtube.com/live/5HyOsDKPYTk
 
Krugman and Obstfeld on International Macro
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/talking-with-maurice-obstfeld 

China's Growth Challenges

China’s Innovation Paradox
https://www.ft.com/content/b44458cc-03fd-46a1-b003-b7a097419e66
Industrial policy has delivered impressive technological gains without productivity growth.
 
A New Challenge for China’s Economy: ‘Involution’
https://www.wsj.com/world/china/a-new-challenge-for-chinas-economy-involution-419500f1
Beijing is fighting to limit the damage from a pattern of price wars and excess capacity across multiple industries. 

Dalrymple on Ancient India

On GPS: A secretly influential ancient civilization
https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/12/world/video/gps-1012-influential-ancient-civilization-india
Fareed talks to historian William Dalrymple, author of a new book about the debt the world owes to ancient India, which was the origin of key ideas and innovations like the number zero, the game of chess and the idea that the earth revolves around the sun. 

The Golden Road: How Ancient India Transformed the World by William Dalrymple 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/sep/01/hidden-story-ancient-india-west-maths-astronomy-historians
https://www.theguardian.com/books/article/2024/sep/07/the-golden-road-how-ancient-india-transformed-the-world-william-dalyrmple-review 

US Consumer Spending: The Haves and the Have Nots

K-shaped economy: Why the wealthy are thriving as most Americans fall behind
https://youtu.be/xgQlAZ3uTYY

Wealthy Americans Are Spending. People With Less Are Struggling.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/business/economic-divide-spending-inflation-jobs.html
Data show a resilient economy. But that largely reflects spending by the rich, while others pull back amid high prices and a weakening labor market.

Lower-Income Americans Are Missing Car Payments, a Sign They Are Struggling
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/20/business/car-loans-missed-payments.html
Inflation and a tough job market are making it harder for some people to pay back the car loans they signed in better times.

America's wealthiest shoppers are boosting spending — and the US economy — while lower earners pull back

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/americas-wealthiest-shoppers-are-boosting-spending--and-the-us-economy--while-lower-earners-pull-back-090035895.html

Delta and United Are Leaving Other Airlines Behind
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/16/business/delta-united-airlines-profits.html
Delta Air Lines and United Airlines have accounted for most of the industry’s profits since 2022. Their appeal to wealthy travelers could become a liability if the economy weakens.  

Signs of Financial Stress

World’s banking system risks a $4.5tn shock from the shadows
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/10/18/worlds-banking-system-risks-a-45tn-shock-from-the-shadows/
Traders fear problems in America’s private credit market could spread to Europe.

‘Finances are getting tighter’: US car repossessions surge as more Americans default on auto loans
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/17/us-car-repossessions-economy
Wall Street sounds alarm over strain throughout car lending market as experts warn of potential risks for wider economy.
 
Auto loan delinquencies are soaring, with consumers hit by high car prices
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/auto-loan-delinquencies-are-soaring-with-consumers-hit-by-high-car-prices-152104464.html
 
America’s bankers are riding high. Why are they so worried?
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/10/15/americas-bankers-are-riding-high-why-are-they-so-worried 

How First Brands Group collapsed
https://youtu.be/OPI3i6ZywoI

Ancient Myths

The Hunt for the World’s Oldest Story
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/10/20/review-the-roots-of-ancient-mythology-books
From thunder gods to serpent slayers, scholars are reconstructing myths that vanished millennia ago. How much further can we go—and what might we find? 

Fed's Data Conundrum

Shutdown Leaves Fed in Dark on Data as It Weighs Next Rate Move
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-economic-data-government-shutdown-0f85f2d1
Officials were already divided about the economic outlook. A lapse in funding suspended data releases that could help reconcile disagreements. 

Powell Signals Another Cut as Weak Hiring Pressures Unemployment
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/powell-signals-another-cut-as-weak-hiring-pressures-unemployment-84460.html
 
Could central banks ease too much?
https://www.ft.com/content/9511d544-a649-4cbe-9b72-c02e6b03a049

Speculative Fever

From Sports to AI, America Is Awash in Speculative Fever. Washington Is Egging It On.
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/from-sports-to-ai-america-is-awash-in-speculative-fever-washington-is-egging-it-on-c1e5c814
The Fed is lowering rates, the Trump administration is loosening regulations across the financial system and Trump’s own family is cashing in. 

The endless IOU powering Silicon Valley’s AI boom
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/10/16/the-endless-iou-powering-silicon-valleys-latest-tech-boom/
Circular deals and sky-high valuations are testing how far investors’ faith can stretch.
 
Will the AI Bubble Trigger a Financial Crisis?
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ai-bubble-will-it-cause-a-financial-crisis-by-hilary-j-allen-2025-10
Experts might not expect a stock-market crash to cause a financial crisis, but what if they are wrong? With leverage built up in so many parts of the system and asset-price movements so closely correlated, the current US financial system looks like a tinder box just waiting for a spark to land on it. 
 
AI has a cargo cult problem
https://www.ft.com/content/f2025ac7-a71f-464f-a3a6-1e39c98612c7
Spending vast sums and inflating an investment bubble is no guarantee of unleashing technological magic.
 
For 3 Years, the Bull Market Defied Inflation, Tariffs and Gravity
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/17/business/bull-market-trump-biden.html
Born during the Biden administration, the market’s bull run almost ended in April, but stocks got a second wind with the artificial intelligence boom.