The Global Energy Race

There’s a Race to Power the Future. China Is Pulling Away.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/06/30/climate/china-clean-energy-power.html
Beijing is selling clean energy to the world, Washington is pushing oil and gas. Both are driven by national security. 

End of Fed Independence?

The Independent Federal Reserve Is on Death Row
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-06-30/the-independent-fed-is-on-death-row  
Disempowering the Fed just as concerns mount about tariff-driven inflation and surging public debt threatens a perfect economic storm.

Fed independence is already dead: Trump will get his monetary bailout
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/07/01/fed-independence-already-dead-trump-monetary-bail-out/

 
President Trump has repeatedly attacked Jerome H. Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, for resisting his demands for lower interest rates.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/30/business/trump-powell-fed-handwritten-note.html 

The Preference for Dividends

Why Investors Are Right to Love Dividends
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/dividend-investing-stocks-volatility-068c4e5a
The payouts often aren’t about income, and that’s all right.
 
Related:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-MB-27133
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/can-dividend-investing-rise-from-the-dead-8da3ddfc
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.1080/096031097333628
https://www.pm-research.com/content/iijwealthmgmt/28/1/22 

Exchange Rates and Relative Performance of Equity Markets

With a Weakening Dollar, It’s America Second
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2025-06-30/with-a-weakening-dollar-it-s-america-second
The new S&P 500 record doesn’t look like one in any other major currency. 

Manufacturing Jobs - The Case of India

Trump Wants America to Make iPhones. Here’s How India Is Doing It.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/30/business/apple-foxconn-india.html
India is carving out a new space for Foxconn and other high-end manufacturers, just as President Trump demands American companies do at home. 

The Top 10 Percent

They’re in the Top 10% of Earners. They Still Don’t Feel Rich.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/high-earners-financial-fragility-871a4aa4
By many measures, the most affluent Americans are thriving. But $250,000 doesn’t mean what they thought it would. 

Is Another Green Revolution Necessary?

Seeds of Doubt
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/06/30/do-we-need-another-green-revolution  
As the global population grows, we’ll have to find ways of feeding the planet without accelerating climate change. Do we need another Green Revolution? 

Boom-Bust Cycles in Clean Energy

Why green investors keep getting carried away
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/why-green-investors-keep-getting-carried-away-2025-06-26/
A leading index of clean energy stocks has peaked and crashed twice in the past two decades. One recurring error is that companies and their financial supporters become entranced with extravagant growth forecasts. It’s based on a misguided idea of how energy technology evolves. 

Do Consumer Sentiments Really Matter?

America’s Top Consumer-Sentiment Economist Is Worried
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-06-26/university-of-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index-shows-us-consumers-feel-bad
University of Michigan’s Joanne Hsu can tell US households are in a foul mood. Is anyone listening? 

Shifts in Bargaining Power

The Golden Age for Employers Is Ending
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-06-27/as-nations-curb-immigration-the-golden-age-for-employers-is-ending
Business will have to adjust to a world in which immigrants are much rarer, and jobs are harder to fill. 

Will the US Economy Remain Resilient?

The U.S. Economy Pushes Through the Trade War
https://www.wsj.com/economy/u-s-economy-shrugs-off-trade-war-and-soldiers-on-e4d18881
Employers and investors braced for economic meltdown. It hasn’t happened, though there are headwinds.
 
This Time Is Different for the US Economy
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-06-25/the-us-economy-is-losing-momentum
Downside risks to the labor market are becoming more of a concern for Fed policymakers, with some open to a July interest rate cut. 

Related:
https://www.ft.com/content/6d247f2b-0c0c-44e6-b6cc-25b3b9197091

University of Toronto Enjoys a Brain Gain

Canada’s Trump-Fueled Brain Gain
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/28/world/canada/trump-universities-professors-toronto.html
The University of Toronto has attracted several U.S. professors amid turmoil between American higher-education institutions and the Trump administration. 

Related:

Europe Is Recruiting Academics Disenchanted with America
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/europe-is-recruiting-academics-disenchanted-with-america-c4bae422
U.K., France, among others have set up funds to help U.S. researchers relocate to the continent.

A Generation that Saves for Retirement

Gen Z, It Turns Out, Is Great at Saving for Retirement
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/28/business/retirement/gen-z-retirement-savings.html
They are contributing to their 401(k)s much earlier than millennials did, reports show, and young women in particular are being aggressive about saving. 

IORB and the Fed Balance Sheet

Ted Cruz Stumbles on a Source of Monetary Madness
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/ted-cruz-stumbles-on-a-source-of-monetary-madness-b182a59c
The Fed’s paying interest on bank reserves is a far knottier problem than the senator likely realizes.
 
Ted Cruz Has a Weird Idea About the Federal Reserve
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-06-27/ted-cruz-and-the-fed-are-not-a-good-mix
Ending interest on bank reserves wouldn’t save money or protect taxpayers, but it would make the central bank’s job much harder. 

Stocks Defy Naysayers

Five Risks for Stocks That Cloud the Outlook for the Second Half
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-28/five-risks-for-stocks-that-cloud-the-outlook-for-the-second-half
 
Stocks Are Defying the Naysayers. They Can Keep Going.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-06-27/s-p-500-keeps-defying-the-naysayers-it-can-keep-going
There are plenty of tail risks, and you might think that investors are being cavalier. But don’t forget about the upside risks. 

The Stock-Market Rally Is Moving Beyond Big Tech and Investors Are Thrilled
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/sp-500-rally-sectors-efe6ba9b
One measure of market breadth recently touched a new high, as financial and industrial names fuel stocks’ climb.

The Unlikely Stocks That Drove the Market to a Record High
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/stock-rally-dollar-general-magnificent-seven-6615ab62
Dollar General, not the Magnificent Seven, is the rally’s hero. It makes for a healthier market when unloved stocks get a bit of attention too.

S&P 500 Surges Through Trump Turmoil to a Record High
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/27/business/sp-500-record-trump.html
“It is incomprehensible that markets are so buoyant,” said Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist at Man Group, a global investment manager, pointing to tariff uncertainty and slowly worsening economic indicators. “Yet stocks keep climbing higher,” she added. “It seems to be a recipe for disappointment.”

Is AI Destroying Originality?

A.I. Is Homogenizing Our Thoughts
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/infinite-scroll/ai-is-homogenizing-our-thoughts
Recent studies suggest that tools such as ChatGPT make our brains less active and our writing less original. 

Energy Politics and International Affairs

Trump owes his victory to America’s shale revolution. Now beware hubris
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/06/24/trump-owes-victory-america-shale-revolution-beware-hubris/
The US president has triumphed over Iran but the long-term prize will go to the masters of electro-tech. 

Choosing a College Major in the Age of AI

The College-Major Gamble
https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2025/06/the-college-major-gamble/683358/
What should young people study when AI threatens to take their jobs? 

The Computer-Science Bubble Is Bursting
https://www.theatlantic.com/economy/archive/2025/06/computer-science-bubble-ai/683242/
Artificial intelligence is ideally suited to replacing the very type of person who built it.

As college graduates hit the job market, here are the lowest- and highest-paying majors

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2025-06-17/college-graduation-majors-pay 

China’s new army of engineers
https://www.economist.com/china/2025/06/26/chinas-new-army-of-engineers
Its ranks will swell as the country’s high-tech industries grow.

As graduates fight AI for grunt work, Labour’s making it even worse
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/06/30/labour-has-made-this-the-worst-summer-ever-to-graduate/
This might be the worst summer ever to be leaving university in search of a job.

Commodity Market Volatility

Why commodities are on a rollercoaster ride
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/06/26/why-commodities-are-on-a-rollercoaster-ride 

The Bernanke Consensus on Oil Shocks Is Truer Than Ever
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-06-24/the-bernanke-consensus-on-oil-shocks-is-truer-than-ever
It was always a bit silly to equate oil shocks with tighter monetary policy.

Equity Markets - Investing for the Long Run

A Recipe for Doubling Your Stock Returns, Again and Again
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/27/business/stock-market-investing-index-funds.html
Time is the secret ingredient of investing, a market veteran says. Over many decades, diversified stock index funds have produced extraordinary results.
 
How to escape taxes on your stocks
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/06/26/how-to-escape-taxes-on-your-stocks
Not that American investors need a guide—a booming industry is doing the job for them. 

Fiscal Challenges

The National Debt Is Already Causing Bigger Problems Than People Realize
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/27/opinion/trump-budget-big-beautiful-bill.html
 
The eternal dilemma of how to tax the super-rich
https://www.ft.com/content/04c764f4-18c6-4bf2-9c6e-88cde288e2d6
It is becoming harder to keep wealthy nomads and ordinary voters happy.
 
Britain has bungled its taxes on the super-rich
https://www.economist.com/britain/2025/06/26/britain-has-bungled-its-taxes-on-the-super-rich
Wealthy people are often accused of crying wolf. This time feels different. 

My take:
A bond market meltdown might be inevitable by Vivekanand Jayakumar, The Hill 06/07/25
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5336348-us-fiscal-sustainability-at-risk/

Rise of Chinese Brands

Chinese brands are sweeping the world. 
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/06/26/chinese-brands-are-sweeping-the-world-good
From fast food to video games, new marques are making their mark. 

Skills Mismatch?

Why Factories Are Having Trouble Filling Nearly 400,000 Open Jobs
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/23/business/factory-jobs-workers-trump.html
For every 20 positions, there’s one qualified candidate, says one manufacturing chief executive. Some of President Trump’s policies are likely to exacerbate the problem. 

The hidden crisis threatening to sink Trump’s manufacturing dream
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/06/24/hidden-crisis-threatens-sink-trump-manufacturing-dream/
Unfortunately for the US president, the critical gap is not a lack of jobs – but a lack of people.

Young Graduates Are Facing an Employment Crisis
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/jobs-unemployment-rise-young-people-ce4704d8
Slow hiring is especially daunting for those just starting out; ‘Right now, I’m pretending employment doesn’t exist’ 

Central Bankers in the News

Trump’s Relentless Fed Pressure Creates Lose-Lose Scenario for Powell
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/federal-reserve-interest-rates-pressure-trump-4ffd1edd
Two Fed officials appointed by Trump have become the first to speak out in favor of lowering rates after having supported last week’s decision to hold them steady.

Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, is less reserved than the average banker. He explains why vibes are overrated, why the Fed’s independence is non-negotiable, and why tariffs could bring the economy back to the Covid era.
https://freakonomics.com/podcast/fault-finder-is-a-minimum-wage-job/ 

Unintended Policy Shifts and Unexpected Consequences by Michelle Bowman
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bowman20250623a.htm
 
The Economic Outlook and Appropriate Monetary Policy by Adriana D. Kugler
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/kugler20250605a.htm

Bond Market Math - Politics versus Economics

Treasury buyers will be the ultimate arbiters on whether MAGA math adds up.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-23/what-mike-tyson-and-the-bond-market-can-teach-trump-on-debt 

A bond market meltdown might be inevitable by Vivekanand Jayakumar, The Hill 06/07/25
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5336348-us-fiscal-sustainability-at-risk/

A Positive Effect from the Crackdown on Illegal Immigration?

A New Meatpacking Plant’s Novel Pitch to Attract American Workers
https://www.wsj.com/business/meatpacking-american-workers-immigration-d6bdd47a
A Nebraska slaughterhouse offers ergonomic work stations and no night shift to lure employees as the immigration crackdown threatens its traditional labor force. 

Regional Exposure to International Trade

What Parts of the United States Trade the Most?
https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-insights/2025/what-parts-of-usa-trade-most
In this article, we show that places in the middle of the country trade the most because they are concentrated in the manufacturing industry or the natural resources and mining industry (or both). These industries import and export the most, and they are most likely to receive tariff protection via import tariffs. 

History Lesson: Continental Money

Happy Birthday, Money
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/opinion/happy-birthday-money.html
The Continental currency, like the Revolutionary War, had its origins in Massachusetts. For most of history, money had been tangible: gold, silver, wampum, salt blocks, jewelry beads. Paper in the form of private bills of exchange or promissory notes was rare (China and Japan are the notable exceptions here), used mainly by merchants and bankers, and generally able to be converted into some underlying commodity. 

Will Big Tech Stocks Continue to Outperform?

Ordinary Investors Are Souring on Big Tech
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/ordinary-investors-are-souring-on-big-tech-b581323e
Some worry about stretched valuations after a big run-up.  

Can Europe Survive on its Own?

Europe Is Finally Ready to Spend More on Defense. The Hard Part Is How.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/business/europe-nato-defense-spending.html
After a yearslong debate over NATO spending, European nations are poised to commit more funds to deter Russia. Now the region must decide how to unify its fragmented manufacturing.
 
Trump has handed Europe a chance to shape its own future
https://www.ft.com/content/74186fb2-886f-431d-a705-4315651a373f
American retreat should be the catalyst for deeper integration and with it a stronger EU.

Europe’s Growing Fear: How Trump Might Use U.S. Tech Dominance Against It
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/20/technology/us-tech-europe-microsoft-trump-icc.html
To comply with a Trump executive order, Microsoft recently helped suspend the email account of an International Criminal Court prosecutor in the Netherlands who was investigating Israel for war crimes.  

War and Peace

U.S. Military Is Pulled Back into Middle East Wars
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/21/us/politics/military-middle-east-wars.html
The strikes on Iran ushered in a period of high alert as the Pentagon braced for almost-certain retaliation against American forces in the region.
 
Why Countries Are Suddenly Broadcasting Their Spies’ Exploits
https://www.wsj.com/world/why-countries-are-suddenly-broadcasting-their-spies-exploits-f455a666
Commandos, secret operations and drones now offer action video that is effective for messaging on social media.
 
The world’s ‘most peaceful country’ is the perfect holiday destination for our turbulent times
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinations/europe/iceland/iceland-worlds-most-peaceful-country-holiday-destination/

Historical Parallels to Today's America

America Is Watching the Rise of a Dual State
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2025/05/trump-executive-order-lawlessness-constitutional-crisis/682112/
For most people, the courts will continue to operate as usual—until they don’t.
 
The Way Trump’s America Most Closely Resembles 1930s Germany
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2025/05/trump-america-1930s-germany-dual-state.html

We are witnessing the death of American democracy
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/06/19/we-are-witnessing-the-death-of-american-democracy/
There are parallels but also differences between Trump’s America and Germany in the early 1930s.

Stephen Miller’s Fingerprints Are on Everything in Trump’s Second Term

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/stephen-miller-trump-immigration-c1e0e924

The deputy chief of staff has played an outsize role in immigration—and amassed more power than almost anyone else at the White House.

 
A White Nationalist Wrote a Law School Paper Promoting Racist Views. It Won Him an Award.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/21/us/white-supremacist-university-of-florida-paper.html
The University of Florida student won an academic honor after he argued in a paper that the Constitution applies only to white people. From there, the situation spiraled. 

Tech and the Job Search Process

A.I. Sludge Has Entered the Job Search
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/21/business/dealbook/ai-job-applications.html
Candidates are frustrated. Employers are overwhelmed. The problem? An untenable pile of applications — many of them generated with the help of A.I. tools. 

Blame AI for your grueling job interview
https://www.ft.com/content/afeaab73-94c3-4698-84df-6557ab1f3c71
Efforts to push back against unsuitable mass applications are turning a dispiriting situation into a miserable one. 

Detecting Cancer

The Catch in Catching Cancer Early
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/06/23/the-catch-in-catching-cancer-early
New blood tests promise to detect malignancies before they’ve spread. But proving that these tests actually improve outcomes remains a stubborn challenge. 

The Role of Foreign Students

Foreign Students Help Make America Great
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/international-students-help-make-america-great-higher-education-colleges-universities-8ad3ba1a 

Trump’s Crackdown on Foreign Students Threatens to Disrupt Pipeline of Inventors

https://www.wsj.com/us-news/education/trump-international-student-inventors-6a449fe1

Immigrants who came as students created the USB port and numerous other innovations.

US immigration crackdown will leave deeper scars than tariffs
https://www.ft.com/content/a58e183e-bdde-4dcf-8fea-3a16f78ed6f8

Tariffs and Trade Distortions

Paul Solman reports on the hurdles one man in Alabama faced while trying to make a product entirely in America and what it suggests about the challenges ahead.
https://youtu.be/GTeaQApcwcM

How Weight-Loss Drugs Blew Out the U.S. Trade Deficit
https://www.wsj.com/health/pharma/how-weight-loss-drugs-blew-out-the-u-s-trade-deficit-2d8c668c
Shipments have propelled Ireland, a country of 5.4 million, to the second-largest goods-trade imbalance with the U.S., behind China. 

Related:

Disentangling trade policy uncertainty and equity market performance
https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/disentangling-trade-policy-uncertainty-and-equity-market-performance

Corporate Tax Loopholes

This Loophole Buried in Trump’s Bill Is Anything but Beautiful
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/20/opinion/budget-policy-bill-trump-manufacturing.html 

The Center-Left Now Supports Immigration Controls

A Progressive Future Depends on National Identity
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/19/opinion/border-policy-immigration-labour-party.html
Those less affluent voters have questioned the impact of mass migration for years, worried about its impact on housing, public services, wages and communities. The response of urban progressives in Britain, as in other parts of Europe and the United States, has often been to denounce working-class voters as narrow-minded or racist. It should hardly be surprising that voters responded by switching their political allegiances. Immigration, more than any other issue, symbolizes the wedge between center-left parties and their traditional class base. 

A Stuck Housing Market

Why the housing market is so stuck, in 4 charts
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-the-housing-market-is-so-stuck-in-4-charts-100054853.html
High mortgage rates, high prices and economic uncertainty all play a role in weak home sales. 

Easier Path for Aspiring Accountants

Aspiring CPAs Consider Ditching Grad-School Plans as States Revamp Laws
https://www.wsj.com/articles/aspiring-cpas-consider-ditching-grad-school-plans-as-states-revamp-laws-203c4016
Moves to combat an accountant shortage by allowing less schooling could spur college graduates to skip a master’s to start making money sooner. 

Property Taxes in Palm Beach

Million-Dollar Tax Bills Pile Up After Palm Beach Wealth Boom
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-06-19/palm-beach-real-estate-boom-fuels-rise-of-million-dollar-property-taxes
Accessible version:
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/million-dollar-tax-bills-pile-up-after-palm-beach-wealth-boom-82984.html 

Foreign Policy Errors Will Cost America

Imperial President at Home, Emperor Abroad
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/imperial-president-home-emperor-abroad
Political scientists who study autocracies recognize this for what it is: a dictator’s foreign policy. Washington has never been a paragon of virtue in its dealings abroad, but the extraordinary nature of Trump’s second term makes clear that presidents before him were indeed more constrained in their foreign policy. Unrestrained, the president is functionally equivalent to a dictator in the realm of national security—one who can translate any impulse into policy on a whim.

Trump Is Creating a Post-Western World
https://www.project-syndicate.org/magazine/trump-foreign-policy-damage-to-west-opens-door-for-the-rest-by-amitav-acharya-2025-06
Some might hope that Donald Trump’s alienation of US allies can be reversed under the next administration. Yet regardless of how his trade wars, territorial claims, and coercive tactics play out, the damage to the West as an idea and organizing principle of world order has already been done. 

Opinion of US has worsened in countries around world in last year, survey shows
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/11/opinion-of-us-has-worsened-in-countries-around-world-in-last-year-survey-shows 

A White House love-in for Pakistan’s big man outrages India
https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/06/19/a-white-house-love-in-for-pakistans-big-man-outrages-india

Will Trump Lose India?
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/will-trump-lose-india-alienating-allies-when-he-doesnt-need-to-4398709c
An ally that welcomed his return to office has serious problems with his policies. 

The Costs of Victimomics by Raghuram Rajan
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/victimomics-the-costs-of-vilifying-immigrants-and-foreign-production-by-raghuram-g-rajan-2025-06
It is all too easy for politicians to tell their voters that they are the victims of foreigners, elites, or other groups that have little to no influence on elections. But acting on this narrative almost always makes conditions worse for their constituents, because it means that merit and efficiency must be sacrificed.

The World's Best Investors

Who are the world’s best investors?
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/06/19/who-are-the-worlds-best-investors
The answer is not hedge funds or quant shops or short-sellers. 

Difficult Civil Service Exams

India’s and China’s civil-service exams are notoriously difficult
https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/06/19/indias-and-chinas-civil-service-exams-are-notoriously-difficult 

ZIRP in Switzerland

Zero Interest Rates Are Back in Europe
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/19/business/zero-interest-rates-europe-trump.html
The Swiss National Bank lowered rates to zero after consumer prices fell last month. Other European central banks are grappling with uncertainty caused by President Trump’s tariffs.
 
Swiss Central Bank Cuts Interest Rate to Deter Search for Safe Haven
https://www.wsj.com/articles/switzerlands-central-bank-cuts-interest-rate-to-deter-search-for-safe-haven-6cf3a0da 

Hollywood Economics

All the Hollywood Action Is Happening Everywhere but Hollywood
https://www.wsj.com/economy/all-the-hollywood-action-is-happening-everywhere-but-hollywood-d277c314
Like in New York and Silicon Valley, jobs in Los Angeles’s core industry are moving elsewhere in search of lower costs and incentives. 

Fixing Sri Lanka's Economy

An Ex-Marxist Is Taking Risks to Reshape Sri Lanka
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-06-18/sri-lanka-s-president-is-taking-risks-to-avoid-another-crisis
President Anura Dissanayake has realized that avoiding another crisis requires burning bridges. 

Big Spenders Prop Up US Consumption

Big Spenders Have Banks Raising Prices, Perks on Premium Cards
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-18/chase-sapphire-reserve-card-vs-amex-platinum-banks-raise-fees-perks
Sweeter benefits — and higher fees — on travel cards from Chase and Amex reflect a new US economic reality, with the richest households driving half of all consumer spending. 

Corporate Layoffs on the Rise

The Biggest Companies Across America Are Cutting Their Workforces
https://www.wsj.com/business/the-biggest-companies-across-america-are-cutting-their-workforces-a0e8739a
It isn’t just Amazon. There’s a growing belief that having too many employees will slow a company down—and that anyone still on the payroll could be working harder. 

Related:

Thousands of Laid-Off Government Workers Are Flooding a Shrinking Job Market
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-20/trump-administration-layoffs-flood-job-market-for-consultants

Americans Are Side-Hustling Like We’re in a Recession
https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/side-hustle-growth-recession-04117a1c
The two-job trend these days is about necessity, not pursuing a passion.

Fed's Dot-Plot - Hardly Helpful

Fed dot plot reveals more divided central bank, but still points to two rate cuts in 2025
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-dot-plot-reveals-more-divided-central-bank-but-still-points-to-two-rate-cuts-in-2025-181721811.html

The Fed’s Dot-Plot Predicament: False Precision in Uncertain Times
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/federal-reserve-dot-plot-interest-rate-1ba785fd
Investors treat the Fed’s rate projections as a promise from central bankers. They’re not. 

The Fed Is Waiting Until the Whites of Recession’s Eyes
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-06-18/the-federal-reserve-s-hold-creates-downside-equity-risk
 
The Fed Isn’t Calling It ‘Stagflation,’ but the Risks Are Rising
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/18/business/fed-stagflation-trump-tariffs.html
President Trump’s trade war is likely to lead to higher prices and slower growth, a challenging combination for the Fed. War in the Middle East could make the job harder still.

History Lesson: US Trade Policy

Why Donald Trump Is Obsessed with William McKinley
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/06/23/why-donald-trump-is-obsessed-with-william-mckinley
Trump’s knowledge is thin, but his instincts are sharp, and if he picked the wrong individual he nevertheless picked the right era. McKinley sprang from an age when the United States’ relationship to the world was fundamentally different. It was a time of trade barriers and colonial wars, a time before what political scientists call the “liberal international order.” Trump grew up in the shadow of that order and came to resent it enormously. His attraction to the nineteenth century seems to derive from his desire to be free of liberal internationalism. But, in reaching back to that past, what sort of future is he steering toward? 

Concerns Regarding US Debt and the Dollar Standard - Is This Time Different?

When Does US Debt Become Genuinely Bad? | WSJ
https://youtu.be/Xi7RvweuIUk

The Path to Record Deficits
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/us-budget-deficit-timeline-2ad66b64
A generation ago, the federal budget was briefly in surplus. Now, it appears headed for a record stretch of peacetime deficits. Here’s what happened.
 
Trump Is Driving Off Investors and Threatening the Dollar’s Reign
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-17/trump-agenda-pressures-dollar-as-us-debt-hits-new-highs
The president’s economic agenda is dragging down the dollar and making it more difficult for the US to finance its deficits.

Aiming at the Dollar, China Makes a Pitch for Its Currency
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/18/business/china-dollar-renminbi.html
The leader of China’s central bank made a clear though indirect critique of the dollar’s role as the world’s main currency.
Related: https://www.ft.com/content/ed04b26c-657d-4653-859d-c5a560c6b3e9

China’s new currency order faces same old problems
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/chinas-new-currency-order-faces-same-old-problems-2025-06-19/
Related:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/06/21/eu-fantasies-of-toppling-the-dollar-are-totally-delusional/

 
My takes:
A bond market meltdown might be inevitable by Vivekanand Jayakumar, The Hill 06/07/25
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5336348-us-fiscal-sustainability-at-risk/
Dollar collapse: The crisis is no longer just theoretical by Vivekanand Jayakumar, The Hill - 04/28/25
https://thehill.com/opinion/5270094-trump-tariffs-dollar-decline/ 

The World’s Most Livable Cities – 2025

The world’s most liveble cities in 2025
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2025/06/16/the-worlds-most-liveable-cities-in-2025

2025’s Global Liveability Index: The top 10
https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/16/travel/worlds-most-liveable-cities-for-2025

1. Copenhagen, Denmark

2. Vienna, Austria
2. Zurich, Switzerland
4. Melbourne, Australia
5. Geneva, Switzerland
6. Sydney, Australia
7. Osaka, Japan
7. Auckland, New Zealand
9. Adelaide, Australia
10. Vancouver, Canada 

Interesting: Not a single American city in the Top 20. Honolulu had the highest ranking #23.

Cryptos - Political and Environmental Issues

While Bitcoin Fuels World Leaders’ Ambitions, Poor Communities and the Environment Pay the Price
https://just-tech.ssrc.org/articles/while-bitcoin-fuels-world-leaders-ambitions-poor-communities-and-the-environment-pay-the-price/
Related: https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/the-myth-of-green-crypto/
 
The Economist: Why Africa is crypto’s next frontier
https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/03/07/why-africa-is-cryptos-next-frontier 

Investing in an Uncertain and Divided World

 It’s a Scary World, but Investing Abroad Has New Attractions
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/its-a-scary-world-but-investing-abroad-has-new-attractions-f6e39d6b
The trade-off confronting investors: The U.S.’s biggest stocks are more innovative and profitable but also far more expensive. 

Europe’s stock markets are finally having their moment in the sun
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/06/19/european-stock-markets-finally-have-moment-in-the-sun/
The Continent’s biggest advantage is that it is not America.

Red vs. Blue Is Dividing Stock Portfolios Like Never Before
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/investment-portfolios-politics-6d186f91
A political gap in optimism about markets is translating into trading decisions. 

How to Draw Down Your Retirement Savings When the Markets Are Gyrating
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/15/business/retirement-savings-rmd.html
Savers with accounts like 401(k)s and I.R.A.s are required to make withdrawals starting at a certain age. Here’s how to handle that during an unpredictable stock market. 

Why Long-Term Investing Beats Selling in Volatile Times

https://www.lpl.com/research/blog/why-long-term-investing-beats-selling-in-volatile-times.html

How Geopolitical Events Have Affected Stocks Historically

https://www.lpl.com/research/blog/israel-iran-conflict-stocks-face-another-geopolitical-test.html

Reading in the Age of AI

What’s Happening to Reading?
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/open-questions/whats-happening-to-reading
For many people, A.I. may be bringing the age of traditional text to an end. 

American Kids Are Getting Even Worse at Reading
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/education/reading-test-scores-american-students-5fb78d4e
New national test scores show a continuing slide in reading skills. 

The Foreign Aid Debate

The retreat from aid is a costly mistake
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/06/17/foreign-aid-poverty-reduction-success/
Foreign aid was helping the world’s poorest escape misery. 

Fresh Graduates Face a Tough Job Market

Young Graduates Are Facing an Employment Crisis
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/jobs-unemployment-rise-young-people-ce4704d8
Slow hiring is especially daunting for those just starting out; ‘Right now, I’m pretending employment doesn’t exist’ 

Why today’s graduates are screwed
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/06/16/why-todays-graduates-are-screwed
The bottom has fallen out of the job market.

The Chinese Consumer

The myth of the suppressed Chinese consumer
https://www.ft.com/content/bf1e8755-de42-4ef3-97bf-1215d8bf894e
In reality, the country has the fastest household spending growth rate of the 21st century.

Related:

China Is Unleashing a New Export Shock on the World
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/17/business/tariffs-china-exports.html
As President Trump’s tariffs close off the U.S. market, Chinese goods are flooding countries from Southeast Asia to Europe to Latin America.

Thailand Has Fallen into the Middle-Income Trap

Thailand's era of economic stagnation 
https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/2823259/thailands-era-of-economic-stagnation 

Financial Reporting in the AI Era

Quarterly Reports Are Written for AI
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/quarterly-reports-are-written-for-ai-business-investing-technology-fbfa6c52
My study shows that companies are appealing to algorithms, not only investors. 

Stablecoins and Financial Stability

Stablecoins Fall Short as Cornerstone of Monetary System, Central Banks Say

https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/stablecoins-fall-short-as-cornerstone-of-monetary-system-central-banks-say-e0b33e70
Loss of monetary sovereignty and capital flight are major concerns, particularly for emerging markets.

Uncle Sam’s stablecoin passion has shaky rationale
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/global-markets-breakingviews-2025-06-19/

Why Passing the Stablecoin GENIUS Act Might Not Be So Smart
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-financial-page/why-passing-the-stablecoin-genius-act-might-not-be-so-smart
Critics say enacting the pro-crypto legislation will make the financial system less safe and less stable—and further enrich Donald Trump.

The Genius Act Will Bring Economic Chaos
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/17/opinion/genius-act-stablecoin-crypto.html

How Stablecoins Can Be Destabilizing
https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/how-stablecoins-can-be-destabilizing-c14a98b0
Banks will retain lots of deposits, but they might become bigger and less reliable. 

Stablecoin Legislation Will Juice Demand for Treasurys—to a Point
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stablecoin-legislation-will-juice-demand-for-treasurysto-a-point-3724fad7
Issuers of digital currencies need Treasury bills for their reserves, but analysts say the consequences are uncertain.

AI and History

A.I. Is Poised to Rewrite History. Literally.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/16/magazine/ai-history-historians-scholarship.html
The technology’s ability to read and summarize text is already making it a useful tool for scholarship. How will it change the stories we tell about the past? 

Will the Humanities Survive Artificial Intelligence?
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/the-weekend-essay/will-the-humanities-survive-artificial-intelligence
D. Graham Burnett (He teaches history of science at Princeton):
Within five years, it will make little sense for scholars of history to keep producing monographs in the traditional mold—nobody will read them, and systems such as these will be able to generate them, endlessly, at the push of a button.
But factory-style scholarly productivity was never the essence of the humanities. The real project was always us: the work of understanding, and not the accumulation of facts. Not “knowledge,” in the sense of yet another sandwich of true statements about the world. That stuff is great—and where science and engineering are concerned it’s pretty much the whole point. But no amount of peer-reviewed scholarship, no data set, can resolve the central questions that confront every human being: How to live? What to do? How to face death?
The answers to those questions aren’t out there in the world, waiting to be discovered. They aren’t resolved by “knowledge production.” They are the work of being, not knowing—and knowing alone is utterly unequal to the task. 

Risk of a Treasury Debt Default

When it comes to a U.S. debt default, never say never
https://www.reuters.com/markets/when-it-comes-us-debt-default-never-say-never-fridson-2025-06-11/
Here are a few instances over the past two and a half centuries when the U.S. government did not quite deliver what it promised.
In 1814, the financial burden of the war with Great Britain prevented the Treasury from scrounging up enough cash to service its debts. “The dividend on the funded debt has not been punctually paid,” Alexander J. Dallas, the sixth U.S. Treasury Secretary, acknowledged. “A large amount of Treasury notes has already been dishonored.”
 In 1862, the costs of fighting a war once again strained the U.S. Treasury. In response, the government paid its bills by printing pure paper money, so-called “greenbacks,” at a time when the dollar was still legally pegged to gold. During the Civil War, the greenback depreciated sharply versus gold whenever the Union army suffered a setback.
And then there was the abrogation of the gold clause. Up until Franklin D. Roosevelt’s presidency, Treasury bonds were sold with a contractual clause stating that holders could demand payment in gold. However, a joint resolution of Congress revoked that clause on June 5, 1933, and the Supreme Court upheld the Congressional action on dubious legal grounds. 

Related:

How the Federal Reserve Fuels Fiscal Profligacy
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/how-the-federal-reserve-fuels-fiscal-profligacy-national-debt-spending-4960b906
The central bank is the largest holder of U.S. debt, giving it undue influence on the federal budget.

Technology and Chronic Boredom

The big idea: should we embrace boredom?
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2025/jun/15/the-big-idea-should-we-embrace-boredom
There is evidence to suggest that chronic boredom is becoming more common, and that this uptick has coincided with the rise of smartphones. In a paper published last year, researchers noted that the proportion of students in China and the US who described themselves as bored steadily increased in the years after 2010, during the first decade of smartphone dominance. Why might digital media have this effect? Research has shown that the main reason we pick up our phones or check our socials is to relieve boredom, but that the behaviour actually exacerbates it. One study, for instance, found that people who were bored at work were more likely to use their smartphones – and subsequently feel even more bored. 

The Manufacturing Obsession

The world must escape the manufacturing delusion
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/06/12/the-world-must-escape-the-manufacturing-delusion
Governments’ obsession with factories is built on myths—and will be self-defeating. 

Nuclear Energy and Decarbonization Goals

The 32-year-old nuclear scientist busting the ‘Net Zero myth’
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06/15/tim-gregory-nuclear-scientist-net-zero/
Dr Tim Gregory tells The Telegraph why a total re-think of our decarbonization strategy is needed to achieve a future of sustainable energy. 

Creative Destruction versus Statism

The rising resistance to creative destruction
https://www.ft.com/content/4c1abb2a-f710-4aa3-80ac-d8811abad84f
Statism, easy money and risk aversion are sapping the west’s economic dynamism.
 
Creative Destruction in Economics: Nietzsche, Sombart, Schumpeter
https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-0-387-32980-2_4 

The Rise of Modern China

Travelling through China, it is clear this will soon be the most powerful nation in the world
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06/15/china-growing-power-wealth-infrastructure-world-superpower/
The Middle Kingdom is on its way back to its former pre-eminence. 

China’s “low-altitude economy” is taking off
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2025/06/12/chinas-low-altitude-economy-is-taking-off
The authorities have found a new industry they want Chinese firms to dominate.

China made millions of drones. Now it has to find uses for them
https://www.ft.com/content/65e4bb30-b04c-4f0e-8686-effb96398999
Authorities bet ‘low-altitude economy’ will be next driver of growth.

Gold - The Flight-to-Safety Asset

Gold is the new risk-free asset instead of the dollar and Treasurys, as Israel-Iran conflict rattles investors
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-is-the-new-risk-free-asset-instead-of-the-dollar-and-treasurys-as-israel-iran-conflict-rattles-investors-98c8e46e
The gold rush is picking up — but it will hit a limit, says DWS Americas head of fixed income.