Detecting Cancer

The Catch in Catching Cancer Early
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/06/23/the-catch-in-catching-cancer-early
New blood tests promise to detect malignancies before they’ve spread. But proving that these tests actually improve outcomes remains a stubborn challenge. 

The Role of Foreign Students

Foreign Students Help Make America Great
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/international-students-help-make-america-great-higher-education-colleges-universities-8ad3ba1a 

Trump’s Crackdown on Foreign Students Threatens to Disrupt Pipeline of Inventors

https://www.wsj.com/us-news/education/trump-international-student-inventors-6a449fe1

Immigrants who came as students created the USB port and numerous other innovations.

Tariffs and Trade Distortions

Paul Solman reports on the hurdles one man in Alabama faced while trying to make a product entirely in America and what it suggests about the challenges ahead.
https://youtu.be/GTeaQApcwcM

How Weight-Loss Drugs Blew Out the U.S. Trade Deficit
https://www.wsj.com/health/pharma/how-weight-loss-drugs-blew-out-the-u-s-trade-deficit-2d8c668c
Shipments have propelled Ireland, a country of 5.4 million, to the second-largest goods-trade imbalance with the U.S., behind China. 

Related:

Disentangling trade policy uncertainty and equity market performance
https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/disentangling-trade-policy-uncertainty-and-equity-market-performance

Corporate Tax Loopholes

This Loophole Buried in Trump’s Bill Is Anything but Beautiful
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/20/opinion/budget-policy-bill-trump-manufacturing.html 

The Center-Left Now Supports Immigration Controls

A Progressive Future Depends on National Identity
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/19/opinion/border-policy-immigration-labour-party.html
Those less affluent voters have questioned the impact of mass migration for years, worried about its impact on housing, public services, wages and communities. The response of urban progressives in Britain, as in other parts of Europe and the United States, has often been to denounce working-class voters as narrow-minded or racist. It should hardly be surprising that voters responded by switching their political allegiances. Immigration, more than any other issue, symbolizes the wedge between center-left parties and their traditional class base. 

A Stuck Housing Market

Why the housing market is so stuck, in 4 charts
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-the-housing-market-is-so-stuck-in-4-charts-100054853.html
High mortgage rates, high prices and economic uncertainty all play a role in weak home sales. 

Easier Path for Aspiring Accountants

Aspiring CPAs Consider Ditching Grad-School Plans as States Revamp Laws
https://www.wsj.com/articles/aspiring-cpas-consider-ditching-grad-school-plans-as-states-revamp-laws-203c4016
Moves to combat an accountant shortage by allowing less schooling could spur college graduates to skip a master’s to start making money sooner. 

Property Taxes in Palm Beach

Million-Dollar Tax Bills Pile Up After Palm Beach Wealth Boom
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-06-19/palm-beach-real-estate-boom-fuels-rise-of-million-dollar-property-taxes
Accessible version:
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/million-dollar-tax-bills-pile-up-after-palm-beach-wealth-boom-82984.html 

Foreign Policy Errors Will Cost America

Imperial President at Home, Emperor Abroad
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/imperial-president-home-emperor-abroad
Political scientists who study autocracies recognize this for what it is: a dictator’s foreign policy. Washington has never been a paragon of virtue in its dealings abroad, but the extraordinary nature of Trump’s second term makes clear that presidents before him were indeed more constrained in their foreign policy. Unrestrained, the president is functionally equivalent to a dictator in the realm of national security—one who can translate any impulse into policy on a whim.

Trump Is Creating a Post-Western World
https://www.project-syndicate.org/magazine/trump-foreign-policy-damage-to-west-opens-door-for-the-rest-by-amitav-acharya-2025-06
Some might hope that Donald Trump’s alienation of US allies can be reversed under the next administration. Yet regardless of how his trade wars, territorial claims, and coercive tactics play out, the damage to the West as an idea and organizing principle of world order has already been done. 

Opinion of US has worsened in countries around world in last year, survey shows
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/11/opinion-of-us-has-worsened-in-countries-around-world-in-last-year-survey-shows 

A White House love-in for Pakistan’s big man outrages India
https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/06/19/a-white-house-love-in-for-pakistans-big-man-outrages-india

Will Trump Lose India?
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/will-trump-lose-india-alienating-allies-when-he-doesnt-need-to-4398709c
An ally that welcomed his return to office has serious problems with his policies. 

The Costs of Victimomics by Raghuram Rajan
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/victimomics-the-costs-of-vilifying-immigrants-and-foreign-production-by-raghuram-g-rajan-2025-06
It is all too easy for politicians to tell their voters that they are the victims of foreigners, elites, or other groups that have little to no influence on elections. But acting on this narrative almost always makes conditions worse for their constituents, because it means that merit and efficiency must be sacrificed.

The World's Best Investors

Who are the world’s best investors?
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/06/19/who-are-the-worlds-best-investors
The answer is not hedge funds or quant shops or short-sellers. 

Difficult Civil Service Exams

India’s and China’s civil-service exams are notoriously difficult
https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/06/19/indias-and-chinas-civil-service-exams-are-notoriously-difficult 

ZIRP in Switzerland

Zero Interest Rates Are Back in Europe
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/19/business/zero-interest-rates-europe-trump.html
The Swiss National Bank lowered rates to zero after consumer prices fell last month. Other European central banks are grappling with uncertainty caused by President Trump’s tariffs.
 
Swiss Central Bank Cuts Interest Rate to Deter Search for Safe Haven
https://www.wsj.com/articles/switzerlands-central-bank-cuts-interest-rate-to-deter-search-for-safe-haven-6cf3a0da 

Hollywood Economics

All the Hollywood Action Is Happening Everywhere but Hollywood
https://www.wsj.com/economy/all-the-hollywood-action-is-happening-everywhere-but-hollywood-d277c314
Like in New York and Silicon Valley, jobs in Los Angeles’s core industry are moving elsewhere in search of lower costs and incentives. 

Fixing Sri Lanka's Economy

An Ex-Marxist Is Taking Risks to Reshape Sri Lanka
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-06-18/sri-lanka-s-president-is-taking-risks-to-avoid-another-crisis
President Anura Dissanayake has realized that avoiding another crisis requires burning bridges. 

Big Spenders Prop Up US Consumption

Big Spenders Have Banks Raising Prices, Perks on Premium Cards
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-18/chase-sapphire-reserve-card-vs-amex-platinum-banks-raise-fees-perks
Sweeter benefits — and higher fees — on travel cards from Chase and Amex reflect a new US economic reality, with the richest households driving half of all consumer spending. 

Corporate Layoffs on the Rise

The Biggest Companies Across America Are Cutting Their Workforces
https://www.wsj.com/business/the-biggest-companies-across-america-are-cutting-their-workforces-a0e8739a
It isn’t just Amazon. There’s a growing belief that having too many employees will slow a company down—and that anyone still on the payroll could be working harder. 

Related:

Thousands of Laid-Off Government Workers Are Flooding a Shrinking Job Market
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-20/trump-administration-layoffs-flood-job-market-for-consultants

Americans Are Side-Hustling Like We’re in a Recession
https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/side-hustle-growth-recession-04117a1c
The two-job trend these days is about necessity, not pursuing a passion.

Fed's Dot-Plot - Hardly Helpful

Fed dot plot reveals more divided central bank, but still points to two rate cuts in 2025
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-dot-plot-reveals-more-divided-central-bank-but-still-points-to-two-rate-cuts-in-2025-181721811.html

The Fed’s Dot-Plot Predicament: False Precision in Uncertain Times
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/federal-reserve-dot-plot-interest-rate-1ba785fd
Investors treat the Fed’s rate projections as a promise from central bankers. They’re not. 

The Fed Is Waiting Until the Whites of Recession’s Eyes
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-06-18/the-federal-reserve-s-hold-creates-downside-equity-risk
 
The Fed Isn’t Calling It ‘Stagflation,’ but the Risks Are Rising
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/18/business/fed-stagflation-trump-tariffs.html
President Trump’s trade war is likely to lead to higher prices and slower growth, a challenging combination for the Fed. War in the Middle East could make the job harder still.

History Lesson: US Trade Policy

Why Donald Trump Is Obsessed with William McKinley
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/06/23/why-donald-trump-is-obsessed-with-william-mckinley
Trump’s knowledge is thin, but his instincts are sharp, and if he picked the wrong individual he nevertheless picked the right era. McKinley sprang from an age when the United States’ relationship to the world was fundamentally different. It was a time of trade barriers and colonial wars, a time before what political scientists call the “liberal international order.” Trump grew up in the shadow of that order and came to resent it enormously. His attraction to the nineteenth century seems to derive from his desire to be free of liberal internationalism. But, in reaching back to that past, what sort of future is he steering toward? 

Concerns Regarding US Debt and the Dollar Standard - Is This Time Different?

When Does US Debt Become Genuinely Bad? | WSJ
https://youtu.be/Xi7RvweuIUk

The Path to Record Deficits
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/us-budget-deficit-timeline-2ad66b64
A generation ago, the federal budget was briefly in surplus. Now, it appears headed for a record stretch of peacetime deficits. Here’s what happened.
 
Trump Is Driving Off Investors and Threatening the Dollar’s Reign
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-17/trump-agenda-pressures-dollar-as-us-debt-hits-new-highs
The president’s economic agenda is dragging down the dollar and making it more difficult for the US to finance its deficits.

Aiming at the Dollar, China Makes a Pitch for Its Currency
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/18/business/china-dollar-renminbi.html
The leader of China’s central bank made a clear though indirect critique of the dollar’s role as the world’s main currency.
 
Related: https://www.ft.com/content/ed04b26c-657d-4653-859d-c5a560c6b3e9

 
My takes:
A bond market meltdown might be inevitable by Vivekanand Jayakumar, The Hill 06/07/25
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5336348-us-fiscal-sustainability-at-risk/
Dollar collapse: The crisis is no longer just theoretical by Vivekanand Jayakumar, The Hill - 04/28/25
https://thehill.com/opinion/5270094-trump-tariffs-dollar-decline/ 

The World’s Most Livable Cities – 2025

The world’s most liveble cities in 2025
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2025/06/16/the-worlds-most-liveable-cities-in-2025

2025’s Global Liveability Index: The top 10
https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/16/travel/worlds-most-liveable-cities-for-2025

1. Copenhagen, Denmark

2. Vienna, Austria
2. Zurich, Switzerland
4. Melbourne, Australia
5. Geneva, Switzerland
6. Sydney, Australia
7. Osaka, Japan
7. Auckland, New Zealand
9. Adelaide, Australia
10. Vancouver, Canada 

Interesting: Not a single American city in the Top 20. Honolulu had the highest ranking #23.

Cryptos - Political and Environmental Issues

While Bitcoin Fuels World Leaders’ Ambitions, Poor Communities and the Environment Pay the Price
https://just-tech.ssrc.org/articles/while-bitcoin-fuels-world-leaders-ambitions-poor-communities-and-the-environment-pay-the-price/
Related: https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/the-myth-of-green-crypto/
 
The Economist: Why Africa is crypto’s next frontier
https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/03/07/why-africa-is-cryptos-next-frontier 

Investing in an Uncertain and Divided World

 It’s a Scary World, but Investing Abroad Has New Attractions
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/its-a-scary-world-but-investing-abroad-has-new-attractions-f6e39d6b
The trade-off confronting investors: The U.S.’s biggest stocks are more innovative and profitable but also far more expensive. 

Europe’s stock markets are finally having their moment in the sun
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/06/19/european-stock-markets-finally-have-moment-in-the-sun/
The Continent’s biggest advantage is that it is not America.

Red vs. Blue Is Dividing Stock Portfolios Like Never Before
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/investment-portfolios-politics-6d186f91
A political gap in optimism about markets is translating into trading decisions. 

How to Draw Down Your Retirement Savings When the Markets Are Gyrating
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/15/business/retirement-savings-rmd.html
Savers with accounts like 401(k)s and I.R.A.s are required to make withdrawals starting at a certain age. Here’s how to handle that during an unpredictable stock market. 

Why Long-Term Investing Beats Selling in Volatile Times

https://www.lpl.com/research/blog/why-long-term-investing-beats-selling-in-volatile-times.html

How Geopolitical Events Have Affected Stocks Historically

https://www.lpl.com/research/blog/israel-iran-conflict-stocks-face-another-geopolitical-test.html

Reading in the Age of AI

What’s Happening to Reading?
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/open-questions/whats-happening-to-reading
For many people, A.I. may be bringing the age of traditional text to an end. 

American Kids Are Getting Even Worse at Reading
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/education/reading-test-scores-american-students-5fb78d4e
New national test scores show a continuing slide in reading skills. 

The Foreign Aid Debate

The retreat from aid is a costly mistake
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/06/17/foreign-aid-poverty-reduction-success/
Foreign aid was helping the world’s poorest escape misery. 

Fresh Graduates Face a Tough Job Market

Young Graduates Are Facing an Employment Crisis
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/jobs-unemployment-rise-young-people-ce4704d8
Slow hiring is especially daunting for those just starting out; ‘Right now, I’m pretending employment doesn’t exist’ 

Why today’s graduates are screwed
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/06/16/why-todays-graduates-are-screwed
The bottom has fallen out of the job market.

The Chinese Consumer

The myth of the suppressed Chinese consumer
https://www.ft.com/content/bf1e8755-de42-4ef3-97bf-1215d8bf894e
In reality, the country has the fastest household spending growth rate of the 21st century.

Related:

China Is Unleashing a New Export Shock on the World
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/17/business/tariffs-china-exports.html
As President Trump’s tariffs close off the U.S. market, Chinese goods are flooding countries from Southeast Asia to Europe to Latin America.

Thailand Has Fallen into the Middle-Income Trap

Thailand's era of economic stagnation 
https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/2823259/thailands-era-of-economic-stagnation 

Financial Reporting in the AI Era

Quarterly Reports Are Written for AI
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/quarterly-reports-are-written-for-ai-business-investing-technology-fbfa6c52
My study shows that companies are appealing to algorithms, not only investors. 

Stablecoins and Financial Stability

The Genius Act Will Bring Economic Chaos
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/17/opinion/genius-act-stablecoin-crypto.html

How Stablecoins Can Be Destabilizing
https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/how-stablecoins-can-be-destabilizing-c14a98b0
Banks will retain lots of deposits, but they might become bigger and less reliable. 

Stablecoin Legislation Will Juice Demand for Treasurys—to a Point
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stablecoin-legislation-will-juice-demand-for-treasurysto-a-point-3724fad7
Issuers of digital currencies need Treasury bills for their reserves, but analysts say the consequences are uncertain.

AI and History

A.I. Is Poised to Rewrite History. Literally.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/16/magazine/ai-history-historians-scholarship.html
The technology’s ability to read and summarize text is already making it a useful tool for scholarship. How will it change the stories we tell about the past? 

Will the Humanities Survive Artificial Intelligence?
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/the-weekend-essay/will-the-humanities-survive-artificial-intelligence
D. Graham Burnett (He teaches history of science at Princeton):
Within five years, it will make little sense for scholars of history to keep producing monographs in the traditional mold—nobody will read them, and systems such as these will be able to generate them, endlessly, at the push of a button.
But factory-style scholarly productivity was never the essence of the humanities. The real project was always us: the work of understanding, and not the accumulation of facts. Not “knowledge,” in the sense of yet another sandwich of true statements about the world. That stuff is great—and where science and engineering are concerned it’s pretty much the whole point. But no amount of peer-reviewed scholarship, no data set, can resolve the central questions that confront every human being: How to live? What to do? How to face death?
The answers to those questions aren’t out there in the world, waiting to be discovered. They aren’t resolved by “knowledge production.” They are the work of being, not knowing—and knowing alone is utterly unequal to the task. 

Risk of a Treasury Debt Default

When it comes to a U.S. debt default, never say never
https://www.reuters.com/markets/when-it-comes-us-debt-default-never-say-never-fridson-2025-06-11/
Here are a few instances over the past two and a half centuries when the U.S. government did not quite deliver what it promised.
In 1814, the financial burden of the war with Great Britain prevented the Treasury from scrounging up enough cash to service its debts. “The dividend on the funded debt has not been punctually paid,” Alexander J. Dallas, the sixth U.S. Treasury Secretary, acknowledged. “A large amount of Treasury notes has already been dishonored.”
 In 1862, the costs of fighting a war once again strained the U.S. Treasury. In response, the government paid its bills by printing pure paper money, so-called “greenbacks,” at a time when the dollar was still legally pegged to gold. During the Civil War, the greenback depreciated sharply versus gold whenever the Union army suffered a setback.
And then there was the abrogation of the gold clause. Up until Franklin D. Roosevelt’s presidency, Treasury bonds were sold with a contractual clause stating that holders could demand payment in gold. However, a joint resolution of Congress revoked that clause on June 5, 1933, and the Supreme Court upheld the Congressional action on dubious legal grounds. 

Related:

How the Federal Reserve Fuels Fiscal Profligacy
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/how-the-federal-reserve-fuels-fiscal-profligacy-national-debt-spending-4960b906
The central bank is the largest holder of U.S. debt, giving it undue influence on the federal budget.

Technology and Chronic Boredom

The big idea: should we embrace boredom?
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2025/jun/15/the-big-idea-should-we-embrace-boredom
There is evidence to suggest that chronic boredom is becoming more common, and that this uptick has coincided with the rise of smartphones. In a paper published last year, researchers noted that the proportion of students in China and the US who described themselves as bored steadily increased in the years after 2010, during the first decade of smartphone dominance. Why might digital media have this effect? Research has shown that the main reason we pick up our phones or check our socials is to relieve boredom, but that the behaviour actually exacerbates it. One study, for instance, found that people who were bored at work were more likely to use their smartphones – and subsequently feel even more bored. 

The Manufacturing Obsession

The world must escape the manufacturing delusion
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/06/12/the-world-must-escape-the-manufacturing-delusion
Governments’ obsession with factories is built on myths—and will be self-defeating. 

Nuclear Energy and Decarbonization Goals

The 32-year-old nuclear scientist busting the ‘Net Zero myth’
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06/15/tim-gregory-nuclear-scientist-net-zero/
Dr Tim Gregory tells The Telegraph why a total re-think of our decarbonization strategy is needed to achieve a future of sustainable energy. 

Creative Destruction versus Statism

The rising resistance to creative destruction
https://www.ft.com/content/4c1abb2a-f710-4aa3-80ac-d8811abad84f
Statism, easy money and risk aversion are sapping the west’s economic dynamism.
 
Creative Destruction in Economics: Nietzsche, Sombart, Schumpeter
https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-0-387-32980-2_4 

The Rise of Modern China

Travelling through China, it is clear this will soon be the most powerful nation in the world
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06/15/china-growing-power-wealth-infrastructure-world-superpower/
The Middle Kingdom is on its way back to its former pre-eminence. 

China’s “low-altitude economy” is taking off
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2025/06/12/chinas-low-altitude-economy-is-taking-off
The authorities have found a new industry they want Chinese firms to dominate.

China made millions of drones. Now it has to find uses for them
https://www.ft.com/content/65e4bb30-b04c-4f0e-8686-effb96398999
Authorities bet ‘low-altitude economy’ will be next driver of growth.

Gold - The Flight-to-Safety Asset

Gold is the new risk-free asset instead of the dollar and Treasurys, as Israel-Iran conflict rattles investors
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-is-the-new-risk-free-asset-instead-of-the-dollar-and-treasurys-as-israel-iran-conflict-rattles-investors-98c8e46e
The gold rush is picking up — but it will hit a limit, says DWS Americas head of fixed income. 

The Economics of Modern Love

Materialists Offers a Frank Take on Love and Money That’s Long Overdue
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-19/dating-in-finance-celine-song-s-materialists-is-a-frank-take-on-love-and-money

Film Director/Writer Celine Song’s (Past Lives, Materialist) take:
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/13/movies/celine-song-materialists.html
People want a mate who makes them feel like a more valuable commodity.
Song: Oh, yeah. And part of the frustration is, “With everything else, I can get the higher version because I can pay for it. So why not my partner?” You can upgrade a car, you can renovate a home, but people are people and they’re going to show up as they are. It’s a complete mystery why you’re going to connect with somebody. 

The career boost of marrying well
https://www.ft.com/content/e808e11b-fc0f-478b-9a98-82e56065a93b
Emotionally competent partners are valuable to workers and bosses alike.

Bride prices are surging in China
https://www.economist.com/china/2025/06/12/bride-prices-are-surging-in-china
Why is the government struggling to curb them?

Who is a Real Conservative?

Reagan Wasn’t the Conservative He’s Made Out to Be
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-06-13/trump-is-the-conservative-that-reagan-wasn-t
The real aberration in the American conservative tradition is not Donald Trump, but the predecessor with whom he is often compared.

William F. Buckley, Jr., and the Invention of American Conservatism
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/06/02/buckley-sam-tanenhaus-book-review
A new biography traces the ascent of a man who made the postwar right at once urbane, combative, and camera-ready.

 
George Will’s interesting essay: Is the individual obsolete?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/opinions/george-will-is-the-individual-obsolete/
The more educated a nation becomes, the wealthier it is apt to become, and the wealthier it becomes, the more benefits its government can dispense to the citizenry. The wealthier the citizens become, the more they pay in taxes, and the more benefits they expect from government. So, although prosperity makes people confident and assertive, and gives them the means to be self-sufficient, it is not conducive to small government or to self-sufficiency. So perhaps democratic life undermines the prerequisites of democracy. It produces first a toleration of dependency, then a hunger for it, and finally an insistence that dependency is a fundamental right. 

Is the Fed Behind the Curve?

The Fed Is Behind the Curve on Cutting Interest Rates
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-fed-is-behind-the-curve-on-cutting-interest-rates-2dbe71ac
Its flawed models depend on slowing growth to avoid overheating the economy. 

The Case for Rate Cuts Is Growing
https://www.wsj.com/economy/the-case-for-rate-cuts-is-growing-4eb75bc1
Tariff inflation has been muted, and cracks are appearing in the labor market. 

Why the Federal Reserve risks falling behind the curve as recession fears rise by Vivekanand Jayakumar, The Hill. May 10, 2025
https://thehill.com/opinion/5292727-data-confusion-market-challenges/

Trading with China

Trade With China Is Becoming a One-Way Street
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/china-us-export-market-222ebc3a
Trump is trying to further open up China’s market to U.S. companies as Beijing’s appetite for the rest of the world’s exports is diminishing. 

Asset Management Sector in India

India’s wealth boom is within reach for foreigners
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/indias-wealth-boom-is-within-reach-foreigners-2025-06-11/ 

Oil Supply and Geopolitics

An Israel-Iran War May Not Rattle the Oil Market
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-06-13/an-israel-iran-war-may-not-rattle-the-oil-market
Abundant supply means the conflict may not worry crude — at least for the time being. 

Oil in the new age of volatility
https://www.ft.com/content/1a5c8449-69b6-4be6-acce-11d4e273da6c

Petrostate America
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/petrostate-america
The Downsides of Energy Independence.

The Sad Decline of English Literature

English literature’s last stand
https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/books/book-of-the-day/2025/06/stefan-collini-review-english-literatures-last-stand 

The Inflation Puzzle

Where’s the Inflation from Tariffs? Just Wait, Economists Say.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/13/business/economy/tariff-trade-war-inflation.html
Are predictions for a jump in consumer prices too early, or just wrong?
 
Why Is Inflation Defying Tariff Fears?
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-06-11/why-is-inflation-defying-tariff-fears
It’s still early to say that Trump’s levies won’t fan prices, but the Fed’s stewardship and softening consumption are helping to buffer the impact.
 
Trump’s tariffs have so far caused little inflation
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/06/05/trumps-tariffs-have-so-far-caused-little-inflation

The Fog of Trade War Is Causing Confusion About Price Increases
https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/why-did-that-price-go-up-welcome-to-the-fog-of-trade-war-ae605e9c
Americans are trying to size up whether tariffs really are behind certain price hikes.

Economics as a Science

Harvard economist Greg Mankiw:
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/is-economics-a-science-what-would-einstein-say-hennessey-vance-mankiw-luskin-12a9ee88
I always find it amusing when people assert that economics isn’t a science. Such statements suggest that they don’t know what scientists do. Here’s a reminder: Scientists observe the world. They develop theories that aim to explain what they see. They collect data to test their theories and reject those that don’t conform to the data. They try their best to put aside ideological preferences and preconceived notions. Most important, they always remain open to changing their minds when presented with better theories or new data. This approach can be applied whether one is studying apples falling from a tree or gross domestic product fluctuating over time. As Albert Einstein put it: “The whole of science is nothing more than a refinement of everyday thinking.” 

Private Equity and the Demise of the American Dream

“We’ve Been Sold a Story That Isn’t Remotely True”: How Private-Equity Billionaires Killed the American Dream
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/megan-greenwell-bad-company-interview#
In her new book, Bad Company, journalist Megan Greenwell shows how the secretive industry has insinuated itself into average Americans’ lives. 

Dollar is the Loser in the Trade War

King Dollar's Crown Wobbles. Brace for Fallout.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-06-13/iran-strike-king-dollar-s-crown-wobbles-brace-for-fallout
Foreign-exchange vigilantes could tip the greenback to new lows.

US trade war enters precarious slow grind
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-trade-war-enters-precarious-slow-grind-2025-06-12/
 
The dollar's crown is slipping, and fast
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/dollars-crown-is-slipping-fast-2025-06-12/
 
Related:
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/bulls-load-up-asian-currencies-trade-uncertainty-knocks-dollar-2025-06-12/ 

China has Leverage in the Trade Battle

How China beat Trump before the trade battle even started
https://www.ft.com/content/adfd6aa4-a95f-4dfd-8db1-954b15f8d989
Beijing has used rare earth controls to win the first skirmishes in the war over commerce.
 
Trouble is brewing in China for the West’s retail giants
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/06/12/trump-wants-to-sell-america-to-china-but-will-they-buy/
As Trump crows about his trade war ‘win’ with Beijing, the reality is far less promising for the US. 

Xi Plays Long Game on US-China Trade as Trump Seeks Quick Wins
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-12/xi-plays-long-game-on-us-china-trade-as-trump-seeks-quick-wins

The Decline in the Equity Risk Premium

US stocks-bonds warnings flash amber again
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/us-stocks-bonds-warnings-flash-amber-again-2025-06-11/
Stocks are looking expensive in absolute terms, and in relation to bonds. The equity risk premium (ERP), the difference between equity yields and bond yields, is near historically low levels.
According to analysts at PIMCO, the ERP is now zero. The previous two times it fell to zero or below were in 1987 and 1996–2001. In both instances, the ultra-low ERP precipitated a steep equity drawdown and sharp fall in long-dated bond yields. 

Is France Headed for a Debt Crisis?

Big-spending Macron has pushed France perilously close to a debt crisis
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/06/10/macron-has-pushed-france-perilously-close-to-debt-crisis/
A moribund government and an out-of-control budget deficit are a lethal combination. 

Only a crisis will wean the west off debt
https://www.ft.com/content/85bc7495-32ea-4136-957d-5af584e4a87f

A Soggy Economy

Why this strategist says not everything is fine with the US economy
https://youtu.be/MDAyJJw5iz0
 
Spreading Sogginess and The Market Party
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/spreading-sogginess-and-the-market-party-82839.html 

Fiscal Problems Facing America

How the U.S. Government Borrows to Fund Its Massive Budget Shortfall
https://www.wsj.com/finance/federal-government-debt-deficit-charts-3289eff8
Growing federal debt is threatening to drive up borrowing costs for Americans.
 
8 key moments that show how national debt grew to $36 trillion
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2025/national-debt-36-trillion/
 
GOP can’t agree whether Trump’s bill would shrink or grow deficit
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/06/11/deficit-big-bill-republicans/
President Donald Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson say their tax-and-spending bill will slash the deficit. A growing number of their Republican colleagues disagree.
 
The Republican Budget Bill Is a Fiscal Mirage
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-06-11/gop-budget-bill-is-a-fiscal-mirage
Three risks undescore how the legislation winding its way through Congress threatens to accelerate America’s debt crisis. 

A bond market meltdown might be inevitable by VIVEKANAND JAYAKUMAR, The Hill 06/07/25
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5336348-us-fiscal-sustainability-at-risk/

Four Reasons Why US Treasury Yields Are Rising
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/rising-treasury-yields-reflect-loss-of-confidence-in-us-economic-policy-by-dambisa-moyo-2025-06
Investor confidence in US economic policy is eroding amid rising public debt, fiscal dysfunction, and escalating geopolitical tensions. As faith in America’s economic leadership fades, the longstanding status of Treasuries and the dollar as the world’s leading safe-haven assets is increasingly in doubt. 

Explaining the national debt, how we got here and what it means for future generations
https://youtu.be/T2iOtFK0dtA?si=bbjRgV_LqPtuTjy8&t=22

Rise of the Solo Spender

The rise of the loner consumer
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/06/09/the-rise-of-the-loner-consumer
Solo spenders are a new economic force. 

The Second Gilded Age

Why US Democracy Is Failing – and How to Restore It
https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/why-us-democracy-has-fallen-into-oligarchy-and-how-to-restore-it-by-mordecai-kurz-2025-05
The image of a mega-rich, high-tech, unelected oligarch gloating at the side of an elected president confirms that America is in a second Gilded Age. The ultra-wealthy are now openly running the country, and millions of workers without a college degree have turned against liberal democracy. 

College Degrees - No Longer a Risk-Free Investment

A College Degree Is No Longer a Risk-Free Investment by Allison Schrager
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-06-10/college-degree-is-no-longer-a-risk-free-investment
As the financial returns to education decline, graduates have to be smarter and more flexible about their careers. 

Want to Get Ahead in the Age of AI? Skip College
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2025-06-15/is-a-college-degree-worth-it-in-the-age-of-ai
All the technological knowledge you need to get a job will soon be available with the click of a button.

New Grads Join Worst Entry-Level Job Market in Years
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-09/college-grads-face-tough-job-market-as-trade-war-ai-create-uncertainty
As companies freeze hiring and AI makes some less-skilled roles obsolete, the Class of 2025 is finding a lot of doors are closed.

This A.I. Company Wants to Take Your Job
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/11/technology/ai-mechanize-jobs.html
Mechanize, a San Francisco start-up, is building artificial intelligence tools to automate white-collar jobs “as fast as possible.”

Britain Appears Broken

Why Britain is trapped in a never-ending debt nightmare
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/06/10/rachel-reeves-debt-crisis-budget-tool/
 
The Left’s contempt for our culture will destroy Britain by Tim Stanley
A refusal to deal honestly with history and ethnicity will turn the state into a sinister leviathan
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06/08/can-we-still-be-britain-without-the-british1/
Immigration is ultimately a numbers game. A democratic society can get along fine with any minority, so long as it remains small in number. But when a government fails to police its borders, and thus loses control over numbers, it will feel obliged to police society to maintain harmony: monitoring, deporting, rewriting history, and indoctrinating us in a strange new variant on national character, a parody of kindness best described as “sinister twee”. 

Global Imbalances - Historical Perspective

Unequal Exchange and North-South Relations: Evidence from Global Trade Flows and the World Balance of Payments 1800-2025
https://wid.world/document/unequal-exchange-and-north-south-relations-evidence-from-global-trade-flows-and-the-world-balance-of-payments-1800-2025-world-inequality-lab-working-paper-2025-11/
Abstract:
This paper constructs a new database on global trade flows and the world balance of payments (including goods, services, income and transfers) covering 57 core territories (48 main countries + 9 residual regions) over the 1800-2025 period. This allows us to analyze patterns of global imbalances, current account surplus/deficit and net foreign wealth accumulation over more than two centuries. We quantify the role of colonial transfers and low commodity prices (due to forced labor and other factors) in the build-up of Europe’s foreign wealth during the 1800-1914 period. We compare this experience to the global imbalances which developed during the 1970-2025 period. We stress the persistent role of unequal bargaining power and terms of exchange and the need for collective rules. We also provide counterfactual simulations on foreign wealth accumulation under alternative trade & monetary regimes. 

Headwinds Facing the Global Economy

Global Economy Faces Trade-Related Headwinds
https://bit.ly/GEP-June-2025-Full-Report 

US Housing Market - Are Supply Constraints the Real Problem?

Supply Constraints do not Explain House Price and Quantity Growth Across U.S. Cities
https://www.nber.org/papers/w33576
Abstract:
The standard view of housing markets holds that the flexibility of local housing supply–shaped by factors like geography and regulation–strongly affects the response of house prices, house quantities and population to rising housing demand. However, from 2000 to 2020, we find that higher income growth predicts the same growth in house prices, housing quantity, and population regardless of a city's estimated housing supply elasticity. We find the same pattern when we expand the sample to 1980 to 2020, use different elasticity measures, and when we instrument for local housing demand. Using a general demand-and-supply framework, we show that our findings imply that constrained housing supply is relatively unimportant in explaining differences in rising house prices among U.S. cities. These results challenge the prevailing view of local housing and labor markets and suggest that easing housing supply constraints may not yield the anticipated improvements in housing affordability. 

The Golden Age of Men's Tennis Continues

Tennis Was Supposed to Get Boring. Nobody Told Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner.
https://www.wsj.com/sports/tennis/carlos-alcaraz-jannik-sinner-french-open-final-8a99b11f
As the Big Three era fades from view, a fresh pair of generational stars paint a masterpiece in Paris. 

Related:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/tennis/2025/06/09/carlos-alcaraz-jannik-sinner-rivalry-french-open-final2/

End of Leprechaun Economics?

No more leprechaun economics: Ireland’s tax swindle is finally ending
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06/07/eu-ireland-magic-act-end-trump-tariffs-economy-europe/ 

How Ireland became the Saudi Arabia of siphoned-off global profits
https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/06/12/how-ireland-became-the-saudi-arabia-of-siphoned-off-global-profits

Dumb and Dumber?

Businesses Are Bingeing on Crypto, Dialing Up the Market’s Risks
https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/cryptocurrency-bitcoin-company-balance-sheets-16a1e2b8
About 60 companies with no prior ties to the crypto market have embraced the so-called bitcoin treasury strategy popularized by Michael Saylor. 

Blue MAGA?

The congressman pushing Democrats to go ‘blue Maga’ and recruit Musk
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2025/06/08/congressman-pushing-democrats-go-maga-recruit-musk/
“The biggest mistake we recognize is the total abandonment of these blue-collar communities for decades, where people were just told to move, suck it up, go get some other kind of job,” Mr. Khanna said.
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, the former president and vice-president, also made “blunders” by failing to get a grip on illegal crossings of the US border.
And Democrats have gone from rebelling against the establishment to a “sanctimonious party” that is “lecturing folks and cancelling folks if they don’t meet all our tests”, Mr. Khanna said. “That’s fine if you want to revel in your own moral superiority, but it’s not a way to build a governing majority or to win an election, and I don’t think it’s the way to bring the country together.” 

Trump's America

Corruption Has Flooded America. The Dams Are Breaking.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/08/opinion/trump-corruption.html
 
The Wolf-Krugman Exchange Podcast: The cost of losing trust in the US | FT
https://youtu.be/CFGnCTAO2xc

America Is No Longer a Stable Country
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/08/opinion/trump-newsom-los-angeles-national-guard.html

America’s Weak Strongman
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/only-americans-are-intimidated-by-trump-by-timothy-snyder-2025-06
US President Donald Trump is strong in a relative sense: after he destroys institutions, what remains is his presence, surrounded by incompetent sycophants. But he is weak because, having destroyed so much state capacity, the United States has no actual tools to deal with the rest of the world.
 
America’s Retreat Is Europe’s Big Opportunity
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-us-global-retreat-big-opportunity-for-europe-to-catch-up-by-pinelopi-koujianou-goldberg-2025-06
In light of recent domestic and global developments, European policymakers increasingly see America’s retreat as a chance for their own countries to catch up and thrive in the twenty-first-century economy. But to succeed, they will have to address four politically difficult questions that have long been swept under the rug.  

US Economic Growth - Be Wary of the Hype

Republicans and Economists at Odds Over Whether Megabill Will Spur Growth Boom
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trump-tax-spending-bill-economic-growth-949a61a5
Debate over policies’ economic effects is at the core of this summer’s fiscal fight in Congress.
 
Donald Trump’s investment deals are a mirage by Tej Parikh
https://www.ft.com/content/58c17421-f0f2-4d51-a1a1-ae8ee11926a0
Dubious pledges and uncertainty cast a shadow over the president’s manufacturing boom. 

An Investment Puzzle

How to Invest When Everything Yields the Same
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/investing-yields-stocks-treasuries-convergence-147c90da
WSJ’s James Mackintosh notes:
Here’s an investment puzzle: Treasurys, stocks, cash and corporate bonds all yield about the same. Either risky assets are less rewarding than usual or safe assets are less safe than usual. Or, perhaps, both. 

Related:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-08/yield-hunters-fuel-a-331-billion-wave-of-emerging-bond-sales

Shifting Preferences

More and more parents around the world prefer girls to boys
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2025/06/05/more-and-more-parents-around-the-world-prefer-girls-to-boys
The bias in favor of boys is shrinking in developing countries even as a preference for girls emerges in the rich world. 

Sino-Russian Ties

Secret Russian Intelligence Document Shows Deep Suspicion of China
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/07/world/europe/china-russia-spies-documents-putin-war.html
Russia’s spy hunters are increasingly worried about China’s espionage, even as the two countries grow closer.  

Related:

The Russia That Putin Made
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/russia-putin-made-alexander-gabuev
Moscow, the West, and Coexistence Without Illusion