Happiness and Global Flourishing

How Nearly a Century of Happiness Research Led to One Big Finding
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/01/magazine/happiness-research-studies-relationships.html
Decades of wellness studies have identified a formula for happiness, but you won’t figure it out alone.

The Happiest Country in the World Isn’t What You Think
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/30/opinion/happiness-economic-development.html
 
The Global Flourishing Study: Study Profile and Initial Results on Flourishing
https://www.nature.com/articles/s44220-025-00423-5.pdf 

Investing in the Trump 2.0 Era

Under Trump, Stocks Have the Worst Start to a Presidential Term Since 1974
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/30/business/trump-stocks-tariffs.html
During the first 100 days of the Trump administration, shock waves from the chaotic tariff rollout continue to send tremors through the global financial system.

What I learnt from 100 days of investing under Trump
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/04/30/what-i-learnt-from-100-days-of-investing-under-trump/ 

Front-Loading Distorts US Economic Outlook

BEA on 2025Q1 GDP Advance Estimate
https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2025-advance-estimate
https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-04/gdp1q25-adv.pdf
Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent. The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. 

The Rush to Beat Tariffs Is Distorting the Economy. It Has Barely Started.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/the-rush-to-beat-tariffs-is-distorting-the-economy-it-has-barely-started-5180be1f
Surging U.S. imports, while likely temporary, are frustrating the president’s goal of reducing America’s trade imbalances.

Yes, the U.S. GDP Decline Is an Ominous Sign
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/yes-the-gdp-decline-is-an-ominous-sign-trade-tariffs-economy-policy-6d29f362
It isn’t a statistical artifact but a warning of a real slowdown.

Don’t blame imports for the fall in America’s GDP
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/05/01/dont-blame-imports-for-the-fall-in-americas-gdp
Why what you’ve read about the trade deficit hurting growth is wrong.

Consumer spending soared in March as Americans tried to get ahead of tariffs

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/30/business/us-pce-inflation-consumer-spending-march/index.html  

Related:
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/the-gdp-drop-isn-t-as-bad-as-it-looks-82331.html

Government Funding of Basic Science Research

Trump’s Cuts to Science Funding Could Hurt U.S. Economy, Study Shows
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/30/business/trump-science-funding-cuts-economy.html
Reducing federal support for research and development could cause long-run economic damage and reduce government revenue.
 
The Returns to Government R&D: Evidence from U.S. Appropriations Shocks
https://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/documents/research/papers/2023/wp2305r2.pdf
 
Related:
https://www.sciencecoalition.org/2025/04/29/sparking-american-economic-growth/ 

Anti-Intellectualism

In climate science, the US is now a rogue state
https://www.ft.com/content/9ac531e7-332d-44c6-9cdf-6b6cd94601b3
Failing to gather, preserve and acknowledge environmental data means less sight of what is inevitably ahead.
 
Corporate America must stand up to Trump on US innovation
https://www.ft.com/content/f143805b-513c-4ade-942f-1f6ba7af036a
The failure of business to join universities in the fight for academic research is short-sighted as well as cowardly. 

Anti-Bureaucracy Sentiment

Bonfire of the Bureaucrats
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2025/04/bonfire-of-the-bureaucrats
How civil servants became the enemy. 

Vietnam’s Evolution

Out of War’s Shadow: Vietnam on the Move
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/30/world/asia/vietnam-country-progress-growth.html
Nothing defines Vietnam more right now than the desire to be seen anew, to have the country and its people recognized for their strengths. 

Vietnam Used to Be a Safe Haven for Trade. Now It Might Not Be.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/30/business/dealbook/vietnam-trade-safe-haven-trump-tariffs-transshipping.html
On the 50th anniversary of the end of the Vietnam War, U.S. companies that have come to rely on Vietnam’s factories, like Apple and Nike, are in a bind because of Trump’s tariffs.

A New Cricket Phenom

The 14-Year-Old Slugger Who Just Stunned a Billion Sports Fans
https://www.wsj.com/sports/cricket-vaibhav-suryavanshi-india-fdac5da6
The cricket-mad nation of India was left spellbound when Vaibhav Suryavanshi announced his talent to the world by becoming the youngest man to hit a century in the Twenty20 game. 

Blackout in the Iberian Peninsula

How Spain’s Success in Renewable Energy May Have Left It Vulnerable
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/29/business/spain-renewable-energy-power-grid.html
The Iberian Peninsula’s widespread blackout raises questions about the resilience of the electric power infrastructure in the two countries — and to an extent, the rest of Europe. 

Related:
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/how-the-lights-went-out-in-spain-solar-power-electric-grid-0096bbc7

Manufacturing - US versus China

Did international trade really kill American manufacturing?
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2025/04/25/did-international-trade-really-kill-american-manufacturing
By Donald Trump’s telling it did. The data suggest otherwise.

The trouble with MAGA’s manufacturing dream

https://www.economist.com/business/2025/04/28/the-trouble-with-magas-manufacturing-dream
Donald Trump underestimates the difficulty of producing in America—and how his own policies will make it harder. 

Manufacturing jobs are never coming back
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/408949/manufacturing-jobs-tariffs-trump-trade-automation
Putting Americans back to work in factories isn’t just hard. It’s impossible.

How America Lost Manufacturing

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/how-america-lost-manufacturing-reporter-1980s-watched-us-industries-fail-to-adapt-926753f0

As a reporter in the 1980s, I watched U.S. industries as they failed to adapt to foreign competition.

A Good Man for U.S. Manufacturing Is Hard to Find
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/a-good-man-for-u-s-manufacturing-is-hard-to-find-young-males-worker-shortage-labor-30255cce
President Trump proclaims his tariffs will bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. Good luck finding workers to fill them. A common lament among employers, especially manufacturers, is they can’t find reliable, conscientious workers who can pass a drug test. Single women might commiserate: A good worker, like a good man, can be hard to find these days. 

Why It’s So Difficult for Robots to Make Your Nike Sneakers
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/why-its-so-difficult-for-robots-to-make-your-nike-sneakers-47b882b5
Trump sees tariffs as a way to boost U.S. manufacturing, but Nike’s struggle to move production from Asia is a cautionary tale. 

China Has an Army of Robots on Its Side in the Tariff War
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/23/business/china-tariffs-robots-automation.html
Enormous investments in factory equipment and artificial intelligence are giving China an edge in car manufacturing and other industries.

US Merchandise Goods Trade Deficit Reaches a Record High

U.S. trade deficit in goods soars to all-time high as businesses aimed to beat Trump tariffs
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-trade-deficit-in-goods-soars-to-record-high-as-businesses-aimed-to-beat-tariff-price-hikes-66a88512
 
Related: https://www.reuters.com/business/us-goods-trade-deficit-widens-sharply-march-2025-04-29/ 

Understanding the Effects of Tariffs
https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Understanding-the-Effects-of-Tariffs.pdf

Can Europe Rise to the Occasion?

Europe Needs Its Own AI Infrastructure
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/breaking-dependence-on-us-big-tech-starts-with-building-european-ai-by-diane-coyle-2025-04
As European governments contend with an openly hostile US administration, the need for a strategic alternative to American technology is becoming increasingly urgent. A coordinated, EU-led, commercially driven AI initiative could help Europe achieve both industrial and strategic autonomy.
 
Navigating a fractured horizon: risks and policy options in a fragmenting world
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2025/html/ecb.sp250429~5c32473955.en.html
Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB:
“If the EU upholds its status as a reliable partner that defends trade openness, investor protection, the rule of law and central bank independence, the euro has the potential to play the role of a global public good. This requires a deep, trusted market for internationally accepted euro debt securities. That is why policy efforts to integrate and deepen European capital markets must go hand in hand with efforts to issue European safe assets.” 

The Quick and Easy Way to Put Trump in His Place
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-tariffs-call-for-global-retaliation-to-eliminate-us-leverage-by-paul-de-grauwe-2025-05
Even though the United States represents only 15% of global trade, Donald Trump has taken it upon himself to launch a trade war against the entire world. If the countries representing the other 85% can come together and impose their own tariffs on US exports, Trump’s leverage will instantly vanish. 

Manufacturing the iPhone

Why Trump can’t build iPhones in the US
https://ig.ft.com/us-iphone/ 

An American-Made iPhone: Just Expensive or Completely Impossible?
https://www.wsj.com/tech/personal-tech/apple-iphone-us-manufacturing-f730c39c
Trump’s tariffs aim to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. So what—besides magic—would it take to make iPhones here?

Trump's trade war has taken a $700 billion bite out of Apple as people wake up to the reality of how expensive an iPhone will be under the new tariffs
https://fortune.com/2025/04/09/trumps-trade-war-iphone-apple-stock-rout/
 
iPhone could triple in price to $3,500 if they’re made in the US
https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/09/tech/apple-iphones-cost-tariffs-impact-intl-hnk/index.html 

Tariffs versus Income Taxes

Trump Floats Improbable Income-Tax Cut Tied to Tariffs
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/tariffs-income-taxes-revenue-8b647e6b
President suggests eliminating income taxes on most households, but math doesn’t add up. 

The Case for Currency Hedging

Unhedged and Burned, Stock Investors Brace for More Dollar Pain
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-27/foreign-investors-face-bigger-s-p-500-nasdaq-losses-as-dollar-slides
For years, it was the money-minting trade for the investor set in London and Paris and Tokyo: Buy dollars and plow the proceeds into S&P 500 and Nasdaq stocks. Not only were US equity returns far superior to those generated at home, but they were magnified by the steady rise in the value of the dollar.
So when both parts of the trade suddenly blew up after President Donald Trump launched his global trade war, the pain mounted quickly. A 6% decline in the S&P 500 this year ballooned into a 14% wipeout for investors who measure their returns in euros and yen.  

Threats to Dollar's Pre-Eminent Reserve Currency Status

Dollar collapse: The crisis is no longer just theoretical by VIVEKANAND JAYAKUMAR, The Hill - 04/28/25

https://thehill.com/opinion/5270094-trump-tariffs-dollar-decline/

The Downfall of King Dollar
https://www.newstatesman.com/business/economics/2025/04/the-downfall-of-king-dollar
In the era of Trump’s tariff war, the sources of American economic hegemony will also contain its undoing.

What the US stands to lose from a dented dollar
https://www.ft.com/content/8742b522-eee2-4a04-9409-3e2d41933591

Does changing the trade regime change the dollar regime? To Mar-a-Lago and beyond
https://www.piie.com/events/2025/does-changing-trade-regime-change-dollar-regime-mar-lago-and-beyond

The real lessons from the Plaza and Louvre accords
https://www.ft.com/content/78b42ffc-5be1-4b38-8711-0cce728c8516
 
Navigating a fractured horizon: risks and policy options in a fragmenting world
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2025/html/ecb.sp250429~5c32473955.en.html
Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB:
“If the EU upholds its status as a reliable partner that defends trade openness, investor protection, the rule of law and central bank independence, the euro has the potential to play the role of a global public good. This requires a deep, trusted market for internationally accepted euro debt securities. That is why policy efforts to integrate and deepen European capital markets must go hand in hand with efforts to issue European safe assets.”

The World Is Finding a Plausible Alternative to Treasuries
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-08/the-world-suddenly-has-a-plausible-alternative-to-us-treasuries

Treasury Market's 'New World Order' Brings Fear of Long Bond
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/treasury-market-s--new-world-order--brings-fear-of-long-bond-82285.html  

The Dollar’s Weakness Creates an Opportunity for the Euro. Can It Last?
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/28/business/us-dollar-euro-trade-trump.html
European officials see the concern over the “safe haven” reputation of U.S. financial assets as a chance to attract investors.
 
King Dollar’s Shaky Crown
https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/us-dollar-on-edge-by-maurice-obstfeld-2025-04
 
The spectre of dollar doomsday still looms
https://www.ft.com/content/4dfdcac7-2a7d-459f-bfe7-90df82e3dda5 

Kenneth Rogoff | Podcast | In Good Company | Norges Bank Investment Management

https://youtu.be/zAkj8tOq3kQ

Deciphering US Consumer Behavior

Consumer confidence sinks to lowest level since May 2020
https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/29/economy/us-consumer-confidence-april/index.html
Related: https://www.reuters.com/business/us-consumer-confidence-plunges-april-2025-04-29/

Americans Are Downbeat on the Economy. They Keep Spending Anyway.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/us-economic-sentiment-spending-23d95f36
People are still buying things at a steady clip, keeping the economy humming—for now.
 
Inflation Fear Is Making Some People Spend More—and Others Less
https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/inflation-fear-is-making-some-people-spend-moreand-others-less-4ba9f519
Fear of rising prices can make upfront purchases rational for some groups, but not all.
 
Related:
America Inc. Slashes Spending as Tariff Uncertainty Swirls
https://www.wsj.com/business/tariffs-companies-spending-2025-0c84b037
CEOs pause travel, delay construction projects and slow hiring in response to tariffs and cloudy economic forecasts. 

Florida is a Republican Stronghold

Florida, once considered a swing state, is firmly Republican – a social anthropologist explains what caused this shift
https://theconversation.com/florida-once-considered-a-swing-state-is-firmly-republican-a-social-anthropologist-explains-what-caused-this-shift-253905 

Fed’s Mission Creep

The High Cost of the Fed’s Mission Creep
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-high-cost-of-the-feds-mission-creep-role-responsibility-monetary-policy-economy-20a352f8
The more central bankers wander from their core mission, the more they put their independence at risk. 

The Humanities in the Age of AI

Will the Humanities Survive Artificial Intelligence?
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/the-weekend-essay/will-the-humanities-survive-artificial-intelligence
D. Graham Burnett (He teaches history of science at Princeton):
Within five years, it will make little sense for scholars of history to keep producing monographs in the traditional mold—nobody will read them, and systems such as these will be able to generate them, endlessly, at the push of a button.
But factory-style scholarly productivity was never the essence of the humanities. The real project was always us: the work of understanding, and not the accumulation of facts. Not “knowledge,” in the sense of yet another sandwich of true statements about the world. That stuff is great—and where science and engineering are concerned it’s pretty much the whole point. But no amount of peer-reviewed scholarship, no data set, can resolve the central questions that confront every human being: How to live? What to do? How to face death?
The answers to those questions aren’t out there in the world, waiting to be discovered. They aren’t resolved by “knowledge production.” They are the work of being, not knowing—and knowing alone is utterly unequal to the task. 

What's next for AI at DeepMind, Google's artificial intelligence lab
https://youtu.be/1XF-NG_35NE

Threats to America's Dominance in the Scientific Arena

Fareed’s Take: Trump is gutting what made American science great

White House Tech Bros Are Killing What Made Them (and America) Wealthy
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/28/opinion/venture-capital-musk-investments.html

Why is America Funding an Islamic Terrorist State?

Trump’s $397 Million Exception for Pakistan
https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/04/25/trump-us-pakistan-funding-foreign-aid/
 
Exposing Pakistan's Double Game on Terrorism after Kashmir Attack
https://youtu.be/OJLIb4yYFQc 

Pakistan Can’t Stop the Cycle of Discontent
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/02/16/pakistan-elections-military-imran-khan-pti-discontent-economy/
Husain Haqqani:
Pakistan also needs a comprehensive strategy to deal with jihadi groups, which are now responsible for terrorist attacks inside the country but were once encouraged or tolerated as part of unconventional warfare against India and a way to secure influence in Afghanistan. Populist narratives blaming India, Israel, and the United States for holding back Pakistan’s progress hinder action against extremists, who portray themselves as Islamist heroes. Meanwhile, peace with India, relations with the West, and ties to economic benefactors in the Arab world are now held hostage to Pakistan’s internal divisions: Those holding office at any given time are often accused by their opponents of selling out Pakistan’s interests. 

How Pakistan’s military is taking over its economy
https://www.ft.com/content/f3dae073-c158-43e2-a8c6-628acc46a868
The country’s armed forces have become intimately involved in everything from canal projects to energy contracts. Investors are increasingly nervous. 

World's Best Airports

This is the world’s best airport for 2025, according to Skytrax
https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/09/travel/skytrax-world-best-airports-2025/index.html
The world’s top airports for 2025
1. Singapore Changi Airport
2. Hamad International Airport
3. Tokyo Haneda Airport
4. Incheon International Airport
5. Narita International Airport
6. Hong Kong International Airport
7. Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport
8. Rome Fiumicino Airport
9. Munich Airport
10. Zurich Airport
11. Dubai International Airport
12. Helsinki-Vantaa Airport
13. Vancouver International Airport
14. Istanbul Airport
15. Vienna International Airport
16. Melbourne Airport
17. Chubu Centrair International Airport
18. Copenhagen Airport
19. Amsterdam Schiphol Airport
20. Bahrain International Airport 

Are these the world’s most beautiful airports?
https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/03/13/are-these-the-worlds-most-beautiful-airports
What spectacular new terminals reveal about a country. 

Are US Equities Fairly Priced?

A Reckoning for the Magnificent Seven Tests the Market
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/magnificent-seven-stocks-2025-losses-352b356e
Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla are collectively off to their worst start since the 2022 slide, worrying investors.
 
Another excellent piece from FT’s Tej Parikh
The S&P 500 is still significantly overpriced
https://www.ft.com/content/4aa1d7d7-4162-4e25-a6d6-a174a9626681

Bracing for a Slow-Moving, Self-Inflicted Economic Storm
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/25/business/tariffs-trump-economy-markets.html
The markets face a baffling prospect: continual disruptions from the White House with potentially severe consequences.

As Markets Swooned, Pros Sold—and Individuals Pounced
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/market-chaos-professional-investors-sold-stocks-individuals-bought-d1c325c6
Hedge funds have sold a net $1 trillion of shares this year, while 97% of Vanguard 401(k) investors avoided trading in early April.
 
US stocks underperform rest of world by widest margin since 1993
https://www.ft.com/content/f3a7d677-bdf1-4a85-8ae3-aaea668d8c07 

Long-Term Issues:

The Mistake You’re Making in Today’s Stock Market—Without Even Knowing It
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/the-mistake-youre-making-in-todays-stock-marketwithout-even-knowing-it-8549894e
Your memories of what the market has done before can deceive you in dangerous ways.
 
Stocks for the Long Run? Sometimes Yes, Sometimes No
https://doi.org/10.1080/0015198X.2023.2268556
Abstract
When Jeremy Siegel published his “Stocks for the Long Run” thesis, little was known about 19th-century stock and bond returns. Digital archives have made it possible to compute real total return on US stock and bond indexes from 1792. The new historical record shows that over multi-decade periods, sometimes stocks outperformed bonds, sometimes bonds outperformed stocks and sometimes they performed about the same. New international data confirm this pattern. Asset returns in the US in the 20th century do not generalize. Regimes of asset outperformance come and go; sometimes there is an equity premium, sometimes not. 

Volatility:

Public Debt and the Interest Rate Burden

The Tax Bill and the Coming Debt Crisis
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/make-the-next-tax-bill-big-and-beautiful-for-wall-street-policy-reform-f0ad1e67
Congress and the president should keep in mind that ultralow interest rates almost certainly aren’t coming back. 

THE NEW IVIES

THE NEW IVIES
https://www.forbes.com/sites/emmawhitford/2025/03/26/the-new-ivies-2025-20-great-colleges-employers-love/
Related:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/university-massachusetts-just-named-ivy-151625357.html
 
Forbes' 10 public 'new Ivy' colleges
·      Georgia Institute of Technology
·      Purdue University
·      The University of Texas at Austin
·      United States Military Academy
·      University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
·      University of Michigan-Ann Arbor
·      University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
·      University of Pittsburgh
·      University of Virginia
·      William & Mary
 
Forbes' 10 private 'new Ivy' colleges
·      Carnegie Mellon University
·      Emory University
·      Georgetown University
·      Johns Hopkins University
·      Northwestern University
·      Rice University
·      Tufts University
·      University of Notre Dame
·      Vanderbilt University
·      Washington University in St. Louis 

A Golden Opportunity for India

India’s new chip fab rises from the dust
https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/05/01/indias-new-chip-fab-rises-from-the-dust
The country is making it first big bet on semiconductors.

Apple aims to source all US iPhones from India in pivot away from China
https://www.ft.com/content/c2be45b8-cfad-4cbb-9a1a-bfd0626be372
Related:
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/apr/25/apple-source-us-iphones-india-china-trump-trade-war
 
India Has a Golden Opportunity to Capture U.S. Business from China
https://www.wsj.com/world/india/india-us-trade-china-tariff-war-602e5b83
The world’s most populous nation has long trailed not just China but also smaller countries with nimbler governments. 

JD Vance’s India Visit Highlights Closer U.S. Relations
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/jd-vances-india-visit-highlights-closer-u-s-relations-84dc8bad
Economic growth, fear of China and concern over Islamist terrorism brought the countries together. 

Trade War Impact

Trump has two weeks to save America from empty shelves
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/04/25/trump-has-two-weeks-to-save-america-from-empty-shelves/
As imports from China dwindle, US retailers face a difficult choice: pay the tariffs or suffer shortages.
 
Corporate Giants Shred Outlooks Over Tariff Uncertainty
https://www.wsj.com/business/company-earnings-tariffs-outlooks-2025-2ff68cd7
CEOs warn big-ticket items will cost more, as travel becomes early trade-war casualty.

Europe Rethinks its Global Role

A Certain Idea of Europe
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/europe-after-trumps-abandonment-by-joschka-fischer-2025-04
With Donald Trump destroying America’s role in the world, Europe must fashion itself into a self-sufficient real-world power – and fast. That means embracing a shared conception of “Europe” and taking the steps necessary to embody a singular, supranational political will.
 
Europe and China Must Unite Against Trump’s Trade Assault
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/european-countries-must-push-back-against-trump-tariffs-by-marcel-fratzscher-2025-04
Europeans’ refusal to push back hard against US President Donald Trump’s tariffs has played into the US administration’s hands. EU leaders urgently need to devise a new strategy to isolate Trump, deter American aggression, and defend the multilateral system. 

Africa and Global Demographics

Africans need jobs. The rest of the world needs workers
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/04/24/africans-need-jobs-the-rest-of-the-world-needs-workers
Migration from Africa is a mega-trend that transcends today’s populist surge.
 
Emigration from Africa will change the world
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2025/04/24/emigration-from-africa-will-change-the-world
As other countries age, they will need African youth. 

My take from 2024:

Are we worried about the wrong demographic problem? By Vivekanand Jayakumar
https://thehill.com/opinion/4954154-falling-birth-rates-global-economy/ 

Risk of Stagflation

Stagflation for the Ages
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-tariffs-attacks-on-fed-could-lead-to-stagflation-global-recession-by-stephen-s-roach-2025-04
The supply-chain disruptions during the pandemic look almost quaint compared to the fundamental reordering of global trade currently underway. This fracturing, when coupled with US President Donald Trump’s attacks on central-bank independence and preference for a weaker dollar, threatens a prolonged period of stagflation.
 
Is a US recession on the horizon amid Trump’s tariffs?
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/apr/24/us-recession-trump-tariffs-us-fed-interest-rates 

Why Trump Blinked

On Major Economic Decisions, Trump Blinks, and Then Blinks Again
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/23/us/politics/trump-tariffs-economy.html
President Trump has said his punishing tariffs would force companies to build factories in the United States. But it is far from clear that they will have the effects he predicted.

Trump discovers the US is no longer indispensable
https://www.ft.com/content/c2ebc194-790f-4b9c-a1d9-3e0840f0ee38
In the global game of trade poker, Trump inherited a weakening hand and is playing it extremely badly. Bessent and his other officials are in a precarious position. The US does not have the aid, the technology or the market access to exert control over global trade the way it once did, and Trump’s erratic behaviour is rapidly increasing the probability that it never will.

 
Xi Is Ratcheting Up China’s Pain Threshold for a Long Fight with Trump
https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-xi-trump-tariff-fight-79aca79c
Censorship and surveillance have helped keep the Communist Party in control, and they are getting better.
 
Trump Meets His Match: The Markets
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-meets-his-match-the-markets-d011254c
President softens his economic and trade stances in the midst of market turmoil.
 
Markets Think They Hold All the Cards Over Trump
https://www.wsj.com/finance/markets-think-they-hold-all-the-cards-over-trump-978e68ce
The plunge in stocks, bonds and the dollar matter to Trump. But there’s no assurance that he will be ruled by them. 

The Job Market Facing the Class of 2025

The Class of 2025 Tries to Crack a Chilly Job Market for College Grads
https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/the-class-of-2025-tries-to-crack-a-chilly-job-market-for-college-grads-0589c4af
Economic jitters and government cuts are pushing companies to pare back earlier hiring projections. 

Trump’s Tariff Chaos

Trump’s Tariff Chaos Could Reverse 80 Years of Economic Progress
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/international-community-must-unite-against-american-protectionism-by-anne-o-krueger-2025-04
US President Donald Trump’s trade policies are undermining the rules-based system established after World War II. Without a coordinated international response, growing uncertainty could lead to a fragmented global economy marked by slower growth and chronic instability.
 
Trump is destroying the dollar. He’s playing a dangerous game
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/04/23/trump-destroying-the-dollar-is-a-dangerous-game/
President’s pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates risks undermining confidence. 

Men versus Women in America

Eight Charts Show Men Are Falling Behind, From Classrooms to Careers
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-04-21/data-reveals-how-men-are-falling-behind-in-school-and-work
The data on how men and boys have fallen behind and on the work opportunities they’re missing. 

Trump Upends Canadian Politics

The unbelievable luck of Mark Carney
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/04/22/the-unbelievable-luck-of-mark-carney/
Canadian PM and former Bank of England governor has been blessed with good timing. 

Wealth Concentration: Rise of the Superrich

$1 Trillion of Wealth Was Created for the 19 Richest U.S. Households Last Year
https://www.wsj.com/economy/1-trillion-richest-families-wealth-increase-bc13874a 

'The Great Migration' Series

Mexico Is Becoming a Beacon by LYDIA POLGREEN
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/23/opinion/mexico-united-states-migration.html 

Sweden Has a Big Problem by LYDIA POLGREEN
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/28/opinion/sweden-migration-policy.html

I Went to Dubai, and Caught a Glimpse of the Future by LYDIA POLGREEN

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/11/opinion/dubai-migration-trump.html
 
Something Extraordinary Is Happening All Over the World by LYDIA POLGREEN
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/31/opinion/trump-migration-world.html

Race and Politics in America

‘Economic Affirmative Action’ Won’t Work
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/economic-affirmative-action-wont-work-class-ahead-of-merit-legally-defensible-but-counterproductive-b7622630
Jason Riley: 
History suggests that ending racial favoritism won’t doom black advancement, because black advancement has never been contingent on racial favoritism. In 1940 nearly 90% of black families lived in poverty. By 1960 the share had fallen to less than half. Census data show that during this period blacks increased their years of schooling at a faster pace than whites, that the share of blacks attending college doubled, and that the proportion of blacks entering skilled professions more than doubled. None of this progress can be attributed to Great Society interventions or race preferences for blacks, because those things didn’t yet exist.
Liberals largely ignore this history of blacks lifting themselves out of poverty and instead push a narrative that attributes black progress to affirmative action and other forms of government benevolence. Racial preferences have resulted in other people taking credit for black achievement. Although these policies have done little if anything to help the black poor, they’ve done a great deal to help Democrats secure the black vote—which is one reason liberals are eager for new forms of racial favoritism. 

The Decline in the College Wage Premium

Demand for College Labor in the 21st Century

https://www.clevelandfed.org/-/media/project/clevelandfedtenant/clevelandfedsite/publications/economic-commentary/2025/ec-202504-college-labor-demand-21st-century/ec-202504.pdf

Tracing the evolution of labor demand in the United States, this Economic Commentary reveals that the disproportionate rise in relative productivity of college-educated labor that shaped the latter half of the 20th century has plateaued since 2000. Our analysis suggests that technical change in the 21st century may no longer favor college graduates, in which case further growth in the employment share of college-educated workers would likely lower the premium that college-educated workers receive compared with non-college-educated workers.

Why US Men Think College Isn’t Worth It Anymore
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-04-21/why-american-men-think-it-s-not-worth-going-to-college-anymore
Rising tuition, the spread of more traditional ideas of masculinity on social media and a desire for an immediate income are working together to set boys on a different path.

Is College Still Worth It Economically?

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2025-college-degree-value-worth-it/

 

Falling College Wage Premiums by Race and Ethnicity

https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/el2023-22.pdf
Workers with a college degree typically earn substantially more than workers with less education. This so-called college wage premium increased for several decades, but it has been flat to down in recent years and declined notably since the pandemic. Analysis indicates that this reflects an acceleration of wage gains for high school graduates rather than a slowdown for college graduates. This pattern is most evident for workers in racial and ethnic groups other than White, possibly reflecting an unusually tight labor market that may have altered their college attendance decisions.

UK: White-collar graduates earning thousands less amid ‘brain waste’ crisis
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/01/01/white-collar-graduates-earn-thousands-less-amid-overqualifi/
Graduates’ salary premium is being eroded by inflation and a soaring minimum wage. 
 
Related:
https://thehill.com/opinion/education/590971-will-the-us-higher-education-bubble-finally-burst/