Kirkland and Costco’s Bargaining Power

How Costco’s Kirkland Signature Brand Became a Powerhouse
https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/how-costcos-kirkland-signature-brand-became-a-powerhouse-29a8132d
Now a third of Costco’s annual sales, store brand Kirkland is a draw for shoppers and a negotiating tool with suppliers. 

Early Signs of a Consumer Pullback

Americans are spending less as they brace for new tariffs
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/americans-spending-less-brace-tariffs-120504861.html
Americans are tapping the brakes on spending - pulling back on dining out, hotel stays and other expenses, as they boost their savings ahead of new tariffs and continued economic uncertainty. 

Science Funding and Long-Term Growth

Trump’s Science Policies Pose Long-Term Risk, Economists Warn
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/31/business/economy/trump-research-cutbacks-economy.html
Since World War II, U.S. research funding has led to discoveries that fueled economic gains. Now cutbacks are seen as putting that legacy in jeopardy.  

Momentum Trading

This Investing Trend Is Your Friend—Until It Isn’t
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/this-investing-trend-is-your-frienduntil-it-isnt-70d156b6
Momentum, an oddly successful investment strategy, might be nearing the danger zone. 

Wall Street closes out bruising quarter as outlook remains murky
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/wall-street-closes-out-bruising-quarter-outlook-remains-murky-2025-03-31/

The Fiscal Rules Debate in UK

Labour’s tax illusion
https://www.newstatesman.com/new-statesman-view/2025/03/labours-tax-illusion
The world has changed, and policy must change with it.
 
Rachel Reeves is hurtling towards disaster. She must change course
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/03/30/rachel-reeves-hurtling-towards-disaster-must-change-course/
 
Trump’s relentless trade war will leave Britain broke
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/03/30/rachel-reeves-is-a-helpless-pawn-donald-trump-tariff-war/ 

Tariffs and Goods Inflation

The Era of Cheap Stuff Was Already Ending. Now Comes the Tariff Threat.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/the-era-of-cheap-stuff-was-already-ending-now-comes-the-tariff-threat-e9ba23df
President Trump’s tariffs, many of which haven’t landed yet, are starting to amplify price inflation on everyday core goods.
 
Related:
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trump-tariffs-steel-metal-products-80b5f289 

The Use of Algorithms in Society

Sunstein, C.R. The Use of Algorithms in Society. Review of Austrian Economics, 37, 399–420 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11138-023-00625-z
Abstract
The judgments of human beings can be biased; they can also be noisy. Across a wide range of settings, use of algorithms is likely to improve accuracy, because algorithms will reduce both bias and noise. Indeed, algorithms can help identify the role of human biases; they might even identify biases that have not been named before. As compared to algorithms, for example, human judges, deciding whether to give bail to criminal defendants, show Current Offense Bias and Mugshot Bias; as compared to algorithms, human doctors, deciding whether to test people for heart attacks, show Current Symptom Bias and Demographic Bias. These are cases in which large data sets are able to associate certain inputs with specific outcomes. But in important cases, algorithms struggle to make accurate predictions, not because they are algorithms but because they do not have enough data to answer the question at hand. Those cases often, though not always, involve complex systems. (1) Algorithms might not be able to foresee the effects of social interactions, which can depend on a large number of random or serendipitous factors, and which can lead in unanticipated and unpredictable directions. (2) Algorithms might not be able to foresee the effects of context, timing, or mood. (3) Algorithms might not be able to identify people’s preferences, which might be concealed or falsified, and which might be revealed at an unexpected time. (4) Algorithms might not be able to anticipate sudden or unprecedented leaps or shocks (a technological breakthrough, a successful terrorist attack, a pandemic, a black swan). (5) Algorithms might not have “local knowledge,” or private information, which human beings might have. Predictions about romantic attraction, about the success of cultural products, and about coming revolutions are cases in point. The limitations of algorithms are analogous to the limitations of planners, emphasized by Hayek in his famous critique of central planning. It is an unresolved question whether and to what extent some of the limitations of algorithms might be reduced or overcome over time, with more data or various improvements; calculations are improving in extraordinary ways, but some of the relevant challenges cannot be solved with ex ante calculations. 

Economic Reforms in SE Asia

Southeast Asia’s Economies Can Gain Most by Packaging Ambitious Reforms
https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2025/03/25/southeast-asias-economies-can-gain-most-by-packaging-ambitious-reforms
Combining overhauls in areas including business and external regulation, governance, and human development can boost output levels by 3 percent over four years. 

America's Stock Market Wealth

Greenwald & Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2025. "How the Wealth Was Won: Factor Shares as Market Fundamentals," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 133(4), pages 1083-1132.
 
How the Wealth Was Won: Factor Shares as Market Fundamentals
https://doi.org/10.1086/734089
Abstract
Why does the stock market rise and fall? From 1989 to 2017, the real per capita value of corporate equity increased at a 7.2% annual rate. We estimate that 40% of this increase was attributable to a reallocation of rewards to shareholders in a decelerating economy, primarily at the expense of labor compensation. Economic growth accounted for just 25% of the increase, followed by a lower risk price (21%) and lower interest rates (14%). The period 1952–88 experienced only one-third as much growth in market equity, but economic growth accounted for more than 100% of it. 

Wealth Effect and US Consumption

The Richest Americans Kept the Economy Booming. What Happens When They Stop Spending?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-24/rich-americans-cutting-spending-could-hurt-the-us-economy
The stock market slide threatens a wealth effect that’s been a key driver of the post-pandemic expansion.
 
Americans Feel Bad About the Economy. Whether They Act on It Is What Really Matters.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/trump-economy-consumer-business-sentiment-fbfb1db5
When consumers and businesses are feeling down, the effects can ripple through the economy—sometimes.
 
Slumping Stocks Threaten a Pillar of the Economy: Spending by the Wealthy
https://www.wsj.com/economy/slumping-stocks-threaten-a-pillar-of-the-economy-spending-by-the-wealthy-c23cabd4
Consumer spending is highly dependent on the affluent, who are highly dependent on the stock market.
 
The U.S. Economy Depends More Than Ever on Rich People
https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/us-economy-strength-rich-spending-2c34a571
The highest-earning 10% of Americans account for almost 50% of all consumer spending.  

Related:

Consumer Angst Is Striking All Income Levels
https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/consumer-angst-is-striking-all-income-levels-ab32d5d5
Signs of weakness are showing up in spending on everything from basics to luxuries.
 
Consumers Keep Bailing Out the Economy. Now They Might Be Maxed Out.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/consumer-credit-debt-economy-impact-634eda8d
Recession fears rekindle concerns that Americans are overstretched on debt. 

Kerala - India's Best State?

How Kerala got rich
https://aeon.co/essays/how-did-kerala-go-from-poor-to-prosperous-among-indias-states
Fifty years ago it was one of India’s poorest states, now it is now one of the richest. How did Kerala do it? 

San Pedro's Crypto Dreams

The Town That Went Crazy for Crypto
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/28/business/rainbowex-crypto-ponzi-scheme.html
In San Pedro, Argentina, 16,000 people, a fifth of the population, signed up for a cryptocurrency exchange where everyone won. Until they didn’t. 

The New Gilded Age

The Six-Figure Nannies and Housekeepers of Palm Beach
https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/the-six-figure-nannies-and-housekeepers-of-palm-beach
An influx of ultra-high-net-worth newcomers has increased demand for experienced—and discreet—household staff. 

The Wrong Choice?

Aid’s grim counter-revolution will prove self-defeating
https://www.ft.com/content/25190d08-d156-48f5-b0bd-d7a4be17c11e
Arguments for slashing overseas development assistance in favor of defense fail on their own terms. 

Fed’s Balance Sheet

The Federal Reserve Owes America an Explanation
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-federal-reserve-owes-america-an-explanation-0a4e0482
Not on the Powell-Trump dust-ups, but on the bigger economic news lurking on the bank’s balance sheet. 

Americans are Worried About the Economy

Labor market pessimism hits highest since 2009 as Americans sour on economic outlook
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/labor-market-pessimism-hits-highest-since-2009-as-americans-sour-on-economic-outlook-142411222.html 

Migration and Modern Societies

‘We’re being taken for fools’: How soaring migration came back to bite Ireland’s political elite
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/03/30/soaring-migration-ireland-conor-mcgregor-elon-musk/
With finite housing and overstretched public services, the government’s ‘cack-handed’ border policies have triggered a wave of public anger.

Sweden Has a Big Problem by LYDIA POLGREEN
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/28/opinion/sweden-migration-policy.html
Lydia Polgreen:
As wealthy countries across the globe turn against migration and ascendant right-wing parties push harsh restrictions, Sweden stands out as a country that has gone hard and fast to keep migrants out — first under a center-left government and then a more right-leaning one. It is a case study of backlash, where the fantasy of draconian border restrictions has been enacted. The story, on its face, may seem a simple one: After being overwhelmed by an influx of asylum seekers from Syria and other war-tossed Middle Eastern countries in 2015, the country sought to assert control over its borders and its population.
Yet when I traveled to the country earlier this year, I found something much more complicated. There is certainly antipathy toward migrants: In a survey last month, 73 percent of Swedish respondents said migration levels over the past decade were too high. But that’s of a piece with a society ill at ease with itself. Beset by metastasizing gang violence, stubborn unemployment and strain on its vaunted social welfare system, the country is rife with discontent — a distemper shared by foreign- and native-born alike. The problem with Sweden, it seems, is not migrants. It’s Sweden itself. 

I Went to Dubai, and Caught a Glimpse of the Future by LYDIA POLGREEN
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/11/opinion/dubai-migration-trump.html
In our current age of vituperative anti-immigration politics, Western leaders seem to assume that the best and brightest people from poorer countries will always want to build their lives in the West, no matter how many hoops they need to jump through to be allowed in or how unwelcome they are made to feel on arrival.
But this attitude fails to understand the experiences of people like Fredah, who 15 years ago joined a relatively new tide of educated, middle- and upper middle-class people from Africa, Latin America, Asia and the wider Middle East who have flocked to the Gulf in search of opportunity.
 
Something Extraordinary Is Happening All Over the World by LYDIA POLGREEN
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/31/opinion/trump-migration-world.html
The countries that malign migrants are, whether they recognize it or not, in quite serious need of new people. Country after country in the wealthy world is facing a top-heavy future, with millions of retirees and far too few workers to keep their economies and societies afloat. In the not-so-distant future, many countries will have too few people to sustain their current standard of living.
The right’s response to this problem is fantastical: expel the migrants and reproduce the natives. Any short-term economic pain, they contend, must be borne for the sake of safeguarding national identity in the face of the oncoming horde — a version of the racist “great replacement” theory that was once beyond the pale but has become commonplace. But we can see how this approach is playing out, in a laboratory favored by Trump and his ilk.

The DOGE Playbook

The DOGE Playbook Targeting Federal Agencies
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/03/27/us/politics/doge-playbook-musk-cuts.html
The cost-cutting strategy of the so-called Department of Government Efficiency has played out at more than 30 agencies so far. 

The Cost of Policy Uncertainty

The unpredictability of Trump’s tariffs will increase the pain
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/03/27/the-unpredictability-of-trumps-tariffs-will-increase-the-pain
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/03/25/trumps-tariff-pain-the-growing-evidence
 
How Trump’s Tariffs Are Hitting Big Car Producers, in Charts
https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/how-trumps-tariffs-are-hitting-the-worlds-biggest-auto-exporters-17b2dd12
Major auto-exporting nations are in crisis mode after President Trump announced new 25% tariffs on imported cars and auto parts, starting April 3. 

With Car Tariffs, Trump Puts His Unorthodox Trade Theory to the Test
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/27/us/politics/trump-car-tariffs-trade-strategy.html
With sweeping auto levies, President Trump is putting his beliefs about tariffs into practice on the global economy. Economists aren’t optimistic.

Lessons from Hispaniola

One island, two worlds
https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2025/03/27/one-island-two-worlds
The vast difference between Haiti and the Dominican Republic. 

Medicaid Waste

Taxpayers Spent Billions Covering the Same Medicaid Patients Twice
https://www.wsj.com/health/healthcare/medicaid-double-payments-insurers-states-1c091b41
When recipients signed up in two states at once, insurers often got paid by both. “It definitely is wasteful,” said one former state Medicaid director. 

India’s Bright Future

India wants to offer a third way for global tech
https://www.ft.com/content/10ac3203-c694-409e-b053-73c418fca827
Europeans keen to escape the dark clouds of concern over the continent’s security may benefit from a trip to India, where optimism prevails. While some schadenfreude at the waning influence of former colonial powers is understandable (India’s foreign minister, S Jaishankar, recently told this newspaper that the virtues of the old world order were “exaggerated”) the prevailing sense of opportunity comes from within. Indians are optimistic not just because of the emergence of a multipolar world but also because of the country’s economic growth and technological advances. 

India Is on a Hiring Binge That Trump’s Tariffs Can’t Stop
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/26/business/india-jobs-global-capability-center.html
An abundance of motivated young professionals is luring American businesses to base their global operations in Indian cities. 

South Korea's Attempts to Boost Birth Rates

Even a $14,000 Government Handout Can’t Get South Korea’s Singles to Marry
https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/relationships/singles-dating-marriage-fertility-birthrate-south-korea-bdb40c7b
State-sponsored dating has become a phenomenon in a country with rock-bottom fertility rates; ‘I don’t want my parents to find out’. 

Rising Electricity Usage

Economic Growth Now Depends on Electricity, Not Oil
https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/economic-growth-now-depends-on-electricity-not-oil-40250941
Surging demand for electricity presents huge new investment needs and regulatory challenges. 

Are Governments Addicted to Debt?

Why governments are ‘addicted’ to debt | FT Film
https://youtu.be/n1jhoU9Mp_U
 
America’s Growing Debt Problem
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2024/12/americas-growing-debt-burden.html 

Shifting Sentiments

Corporate America’s Euphoria Over Trump’s ‘Golden Age’ Is Giving Way to Distress
https://www.wsj.com/economy/wall-street-trump-golden-age-distress-28a1dfcc
CEOs and investors are fretting over what they see as whipsaw policy changes and complacency about the risks of recession. 

Trumponomics is putting lipstick on a policy pig
https://www.ft.com/content/81a226ce-0a93-4d0f-8fb8-c31817955f9e
How do technocrats expect the needed macroeconomic adjustments to occur?

Gen Z and the 2024 Elections

This Is Why Young People Really Voted for Trump
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/26/opinion/young-maga-trump-vote.html 

Unpopular Governments

Why Everyone Thinks Their Government Has Failed
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/why-everyone-thinks-their-government-has-failed/ar-AA1BC74S
People all over the world—with all kinds of leaders—seem to think their incumbent is the problem.
 
The State Capacity Crisis
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5188510
Abstract
Crumbling infrastructure, inadequate housing supply, failing schools, growing public disorder-few government services seem to work as they should. For a decade, a nascent scholarly movement has been warning that America faces a crisis of state capacity. But while the major figures in this "state capacity movement" have identified the right problem, they concentrate almost exclusively on the federal government. That yields a misdiagnosis of why the American government lacks capacity and to solutions that are unlikely to accomplish much. In the United States, it is state and local governments that do most of what "the state" does, and they suffer from different pathologies from the federal government. First, voters know next to nothing about their state and local representatives, and instead base their votes on national political affiliation. That dulls public accountability for good government performance. Second, state administrative law is as strict, and often stricter, than federal administrative law, especially when it comes to rules around public participation. That privileges interest groups that have the organizational wherewithal to exploit the procedural opportunities that administrative law affords. Third, states have limited fiscal capacity relative to the federal government. When a recession depletes tax revenue, states have few choices except to increase taxes or reduce spending, right when public services are needed most. These three factors are the primary drivers of a dearth of American state capacity, and they are all getting worse. Yet they are basically invisible in the state capacity literature. To improve the quality of American governance, we must examine the right governments and ask the right questions.

Trade Conflicts

Trade War Explodes Across World at Pace Not Seen in Decades
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trade-war-explodes-across-world-at-pace-not-seen-in-decades-0b6d6513
Proliferating tariffs engulfing the U.S., China and their partners draw parallels to the protectionist spiral of the 1930s.
 
Canadians Are Boycotting American Vacations
https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/travel/trump-canada-vacation-travel-plans-1428d574
Infuriated by annexation talk, neighbors to the north are keeping their vacations local. That is bad news for popular U.S. destinations. 

Tariff Man Doubles Down
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-tariff-agenda-means-trouble-for-american-and-global-economies-by-anne-o-krueger-2025-03
Some of US President Donald Trump’s defenders insist that his tariff threats are intended merely to wring concessions from other countries. But his policies so far suggest that he is fully committed to a protectionist agenda, with grave – and possibly irreversible – implications for the US and global economies.

The West is losing the tech race and Musk knows it
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/03/23/china-is-winning-the-tech-race-with-america-elon-musk-knows/
Trump’s heavy tariffs may slow down competition temporarily – but Western companies can’t hide forever.

Let's stop the trade deficit blame game
https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2025/lets-stop-trade-deficit-blame-game

Trump’s $16 Trillion Trade Blind Spot
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-tariff-war-misses-the-bigger-battle-by-ricardo-hausmann-2025-03

AI and the Future of White-Collar Jobs and Knowledge Work

Has the Decline of Knowledge Work Begun?
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/25/business/economy/white-collar-layoffs.html
The unemployment rate for college graduates has risen faster than for other workers over the past few years. How worried should they be?
 
A white-collar world without juniors?
https://www.ft.com/content/8e730692-fd9c-45b1-84dc-7ea16429c5c6
Professional business models may need to change if novices lose the opportunities to learn and progress when AI takes over their work

How AI will divide the best from the rest
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/02/13/how-ai-will-divide-the-best-from-the-rest
Optimists hope the technology will be a great equaliser. Instead, it looks likely to widen social divides.

 
My take from Feb 2025:
https://thehill.com/opinion/5151848-generative-ai-economic-concerns/
Looking ahead, the rise of generative artificial intelligence poses a much bigger challenge for policymakers. Generative AI appears to truly upend prior assumptions regarding the stability of high-skill positions as it can easily and rapidly perform many cognitive and non-routine tasks. Suddenly, white-collar jobs appear vulnerable. Entry-level positions in information technology, law, finance, accounting, marketing and other professional services are already experiencing cutbacks.
Ever since the Luddites smashed textile machinery in early 19th-century England, concerns surrounding technological unemployment have resurfaced with each new wave of disruptive innovation. Technophobes often fall prey to the “lump of labor” fallacy. Thus far, such concerns have proven to be largely unfounded. Neo-luddites often failed to recognize the fact that while new technologies may act as a substitute for certain types of human labor, they also augment the skillset of many workers in ways that enable the creation of new products and services or even entire new industries (which in turn generate vast new array of jobs).
Until now, while some sectors and professions inevitably faced obsolescence (and some workers suffered from labor market displacements) due to technological shifts, there were usually net job gains associated with tech innovations. However, given the nature and scope of generative AI, it is not unreasonable to wonder if this time might indeed be different. While some profess optimism about AI’s potential to help the middle-class, many fear that AI will do to white-collar jobs what automation/globalization did to blue-collar ones. 

Related:

Humans are being tricked into engineering their own demise
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/03/24/britain-blind-trust-chatbots-plays-into-russia-hands/
By rushing out artificial intelligence, we are making ourselves more vulnerable than ever. 

Seeking Clarity in an Uncertain Era

Data-Hungry Investors Dive Deep for Economic Clues
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/us-investors-new-data-economic-indicators-3ec7ec80
Nervous about the economy, some seek clarity in job listings and jewelry sales. 

Investment Themes: US Exceptionalism versus International Diversification

How the Reversal of the ‘American Exceptionalism’ Trade Is Rippling Around the Globe
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/us-stocks-financial-market-global-impact-6ed646b9
Outsize U.S. bets delivered foreign investors years of windfall profits but leave them exposed to this year’s selloff.

The great European disentanglement from US stocks has only just started
https://www.ft.com/content/d7dd7b87-5abc-4ebf-b931-948c314a7e64

Corporate America’s Euphoria Over Trump’s ‘Golden Age’ Is Giving Way to Distress
https://www.wsj.com/economy/wall-street-trump-golden-age-distress-28a1dfcc
CEOs and investors are fretting over what they see as whipsaw policy changes and complacency about the risks of recession. 

The end of American exceptionalism goes way beyond Trump  
https://www.ft.com/content/dd751b97-7485-4457-aaae-c632062f0976

America’s Economic Exceptionalism Is on Thin Ice
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/21/opinion/trump-economy-us-exceptional.html

Investors who were all in on U.S. stocks are starting to look elsewhere

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/investors-who-were-all-in-on-u-s-stocks-are-starting-to-look-elsewhere-ddacd1e8
American exceptionalism was this year’s big trade. Now some are hedging their bets.

The world’s markets have turned upside down but it’s still possible to make money
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/03/20/how-to-make-money-with-worlds-markets-turned-upside-down/
Diversification will be even more important as tech stocks fall back to earth.

Europe still needs to earn the confidence of investors
https://www.ft.com/content/4594970a-443d-4810-a27b-7ae6083cacc9

Is this the start of a period of European exceptionalism in markets?
https://www.ft.com/content/012a0231-27ba-4b68-b0d4-38c6eacd7192

The Trump slump has handed China a golden opportunity https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/03/24/trump-slump-has-handed-china-a-golden-opportunity/ 

Western investors are looking beyond the US as the Maga playbook rattles stock markets.

Could Emerging-Markets Stocks Outperform US Stocks?

https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/could-emerging-markets-stocks-outperform-us-stocks

Your Retirement Portfolio Is Like Kindling. Trump Just Lit a Match.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/24/opinion/stock-market-trump-retirement.html

Related:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-21/wall-street-s-bear-market-in-diversification-is-finally-easing 

My take:
Cracks are Emerging in the Idea of America’s Economic Exceptionalism by Vivekanand Jayakumar, The Hill, March 11, 2025

https://thehill.com/opinion/5186839-us-economy-stocks-reversal/ 

AI Revolution - Downside Risks

Humans are being tricked into engineering their own demise
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/03/24/britain-blind-trust-chatbots-plays-into-russia-hands/
By rushing out artificial intelligence, we are making ourselves more vulnerable than ever. 

History Lesson: The State and the Economy

Government Built Silicon Valley
https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/03/24/government-built-silicon-valley/
From the internet to electric vehicles, a marriage between Washington and the tech industry helped make America great. 

Erdogran's Autocracy

Authoritarianism Is Turkey’s Biggest Economic Risk
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/turkey-protests-against-erdogan-about-more-than-imamoglu-arrest-by-sebnem-kalemli-ozcan-2025-03

Turkey Is Now a Full-Blown Autocracy
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/turkey/turkey-now-full-blown-autocracy
Why Erdogan May Come to Regret His Latest Power Grab. 

Ekrem Imamoglu: the meatball mayor who could bring down Erdogan
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/03/24/ekrem-imamoglu-man-take-down-turkish-president-erdogan/
The opposition leader’s arrest has ignited Turkey’s largest protests in over a decade.

Crony Capitalism

The Oil Oligarch Who Wants to Take Us Back to the 1990s
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/24/opinion/trump-gas-solar-energy.html 

Risk and Reward

The Dumbest Investment in the World Was Better Than Owning Safe Treasurys
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/the-dumbest-investment-in-the-world-was-better-than-owning-safe-treasurys-e2046748
Argentina’s century bond defaulted but ended up a winner, an important lesson for investors. 

Luck and Success in Sports

Is March Madness All Luck?
https://www.newyorker.com/sports/sporting-scene/is-march-madness-all-luck  
As a Purdue Boilermakers fan, I’ve experienced plenty of heartbreak during the N.C.A.A. tournament. Was it a matter of skill, or of chance? 

Trump and the Indian Diaspora

Trump and the Indian Diaspora
https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/03/20/why-the-indian-diaspora-has-not-yet-embraced-donald-trump 

Welcome to America - A Troubled Emerging Market

America Looks Like a Troubled Emerging-Market Economy
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-america-looks-like-emerging-economy-in-trouble-by-desmond-lachman-2025-03 

The State Capacity Crisis
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5188510
Abstract
Crumbling infrastructure, inadequate housing supply, failing schools, growing public disorder-few government services seem to work as they should. For a decade, a nascent scholarly movement has been warning that America faces a crisis of state capacity. But while the major figures in this "state capacity movement" have identified the right problem, they concentrate almost exclusively on the federal government. That yields a misdiagnosis of why the American government lacks capacity and to solutions that are unlikely to accomplish much. In the United States, it is state and local governments that do most of what "the state" does, and they suffer from different pathologies from the federal government. First, voters know next to nothing about their state and local representatives, and instead base their votes on national political affiliation. That dulls public accountability for good government performance. Second, state administrative law is as strict, and often stricter, than federal administrative law, especially when it comes to rules around public participation. That privileges interest groups that have the organizational wherewithal to exploit the procedural opportunities that administrative law affords. Third, states have limited fiscal capacity relative to the federal government. When a recession depletes tax revenue, states have few choices except to increase taxes or reduce spending, right when public services are needed most. These three factors are the primary drivers of a dearth of American state capacity, and they are all getting worse. Yet they are basically invisible in the state capacity literature. To improve the quality of American governance, we must examine the right governments and ask the right questions.

Market Forecasts are Invariably Wrong

‘It’s Kind of Amusing How Terrible Forecasts Are’
https://www.morningstar.com/markets/its-kind-amusing-how-terrible-forecasts-are 

The Era of Golden Passports

The Appeal of Golden Passports
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/the-appeal-of-golden-passports-81797.html
 
Americans Are Buying an Escape Plan
https://www.msn.com/en-my/news/editorpicks/americans-are-buying-an-escape-plan/ar-AA1BrHat
Thousands of Americans a year are applying to visa programs abroad, primarily in Europe—Portugal in particular—and the Caribbean, where island nations offer citizenship outright, sometimes upon purchase of property. An American doctor or dentist considering a second home in storm-addled Florida might now buy a $325,000 condo in St. Kitts and Nevis instead and, in the bargain, qualify for the island nation’s citizenship in as little as three months. A nature lover might look to Costa Rica, which grants residence (and a fast track to citizenship) for $150,000. Vanuatu will effectively sell you a passport for $130,000; Dominica’s costs $200,000. 

Risks Facing the Dollar Standard

Can the dollar remain king of currencies?
https://www.ft.com/content/8a71dceb-806f-4681-80f9-416aa4c366ca
The greenback’s dominance was forged on trade, alliances and institutions — now that era is at risk of drawing to a close. 

Trump seems set on dethroning King Dollar
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/03/21/trump-dollar-reserve-currency-strength-trade-deficit-plan/

Is Trump Engineering the Decline and Fall of the Dollar?
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/mar-a-lago-accord-would-spell-the-end-of-dollar-dominance-by-jeffrey-frankel-2025-03

Will anybody buy a ‘Mar-a-Lago accord’?
https://www.ft.com/content/9fa4a76d-60bb-45cd-aba0-744973f98dea
The US president wants both to protect domestic manufacturing and hold the dollar as the reserve currency.

Impact of Tariffs on Small and Midsize Business

Tariffs Are a Risk for Midsize Businesses, and Their Lenders
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/tariffs-are-a-risk-for-midsize-businesses-and-their-lenders-f54e6264
Loans to middle-market firms bear watching as policy shifts play out.
 
Small Businesses Are Running Out of Moves in Trump’s Trade War
https://www.wsj.com/business/entrepreneurship/small-businesses-are-running-out-of-moves-in-trumps-trade-war-7e060db4
Lacking large cash cushions or leverage with suppliers, small-business entrepreneurs say they are cutting costs and putting expansion plans on hold. 

Does it Make Financial Sense for Foreign Students to Get a US College Degree?

Fearing ‘Auto-Reject,' Foreign U.S. College Grads Weigh Going Home
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/fearing--auto-reject---foreign-u-s--college-grads-weigh-going-home-81804.html
Transitioning from a student visa to a work authorization is often complicated. Graduates from American universities are allowed to work in the country for three years if their degree qualifies as science, technology, engineering or math, and one year otherwise. During that period, they can try to transition to a visa like the H-1B, but that involves a costly sponsorship process that many companies refuse to go through.
Even when they do, it subjects them to a lottery that currently has a one-in-four success rate. Nearly a third of international students leave the US within a year of getting their degree, and fewer than 60% are still in the country five years after graduation, according to workforce intelligence firm Revelio Labs.

Gated Version:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-21/work-visa-sponsorship-h1-b-foreign-students-struggle-to-find-jobs-in-trump-era
 
Debate over H-1B visas shines spotlight on US tech worker shortages
https://theconversation.com/debate-over-h-1b-visas-shines-spotlight-on-us-tech-worker-shortages-248711 

Rethinking Marriage

American Women Are Giving Up on Marriage
https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/relationships/american-women-are-giving-up-on-marriage-54840971
Major demographic shifts have put men and women on divergent paths. That’s left more women resigned to being single. ‘The numbers aren’t netting out.’  

Education in the Age of AI

In the Age of AI, Is Education Just an Illusion?
https://www.chronicle.com/article/in-the-age-of-ai-is-education-just-an-illusion
We are in the midst of a crisis of purpose. 

Ivory Coast - A Success Story?

The success of Ivory Coast is Africa’s best-kept secret
https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2025/03/20/the-success-of-ivory-coast-is-africas-best-kept-secret
How has it managed to outshine its peers? 

Building in America – Easier Said than Done

The Warship That Shows Why the U.S. Navy Is Falling Behind China
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/warship-shows-why-u-s-navy-is-falling-behind-china-94cb9a87
A blizzard of design changes put production of the USS Constellation years behind schedule and millions over budget. Labor shortages, old equipment and rising steel costs aren’t helping. 

Trump and the Business Community

Why did businesspeople back Trump? 
https://www.ft.com/content/ace79979-e35e-47e7-8e76-03d99cb04834
 
Silicon Valley Has Gone From ‘Think Different’ to ‘Yes, Sir’
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/21/opinion/silicon-valley-musk-trump.html 

Market Uncertainty and Policy Risks

The Trump administration is playing a dangerous stockmarket game
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/03/19/the-trump-administration-is-playing-a-dangerous-stockmarket-game
American investors are extremely exposed to a sell-off—and so is the economy.
 
Even the Trumpiest stocks are suffering
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/03/20/even-the-trumpiest-stocks-are-suffering
Investors may have misjudged which firms would thrive under the new administration.
 
Beneath investors’ feet, the ground is shifting
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/03/19/beneath-investors-feet-the-ground-is-shifting
More remarkable than slumping share prices are the forces behind them.
 
Related:
Will Trump’s tariffs turbocharge foreign investment in America?
https://www.economist.com/business/2025/03/17/will-trumps-tariffs-turbocharge-foreign-investment-in-america
Companies from Asahi to TSMC are expanding production in the country—for now. 

CRE - Market Bottom?

Signs of an Office Market Bottom: ‘The Worst Is Probably Over’
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/20/business/office-market-bottom-remote-work.html
Sales of office buildings jumped nearly 21 percent last year, and leasing activity is up, too. Companies are looking for more space as work-from-home policies peter out. 

A History Lesson on Tariffs

Trump Needs a History Lesson About Tariffs
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-financial-page/even-donald-trumps-historical-role-model-had-second-thoughts-about-tariffs

Trump loves to cite his historical role model President William McKinley, who was a steadfast protectionist—until a depression and a G.O.P. wipeout. 

Misunderstanding McKinley
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/misunderstanding-mckinley
Why the Gilded Age Tariff Model Won’t Work for Trump.
 
The Incoherent Case for Tariffs
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/incoherent-case-tariffs
Trump’s Fixation on Economic Coercion Will Subvert His Economic Goals.
 
Tariffs are not going to solve America’s ills
https://www.ft.com/content/ae84d7fc-5eac-4c97-b213-eab985db827a
Punitive import duties will neither reduce the US trade deficit nor boost employment in manufacturing.

Related:

PODCAST: Paul Krugman talks trade, industrial policy, and Trump
https://tradetalkspodcast.com/podcast/206-paul-krugman-talks-trade-industrial-policy-and-trump/

German Politics: What Does AfD Stand For?

What Does the AfD Stand For?
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/what-does-the-afd-stand-for-germany-politics-europe-50c2816d
German journalists refuse to interview the party’s Beatrix von Storch, but I went to see her in Berlin. 

The Fed and the Markets Try to Adapt to Trump 2.0 Era

SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS - March 2025:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20250319.pdf

Fed Extends Pause on Rates, Dims Economic Outlook
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/interest-rates-decision-federal-reserve-ed172223
Officials project higher inflation and unemployment this year, reflecting potential impacts of tariffs.

Fed Projections See an Economy Dramatically Reset by Trump’s Election
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-forecast-inflation-tariffs-trump-economy-5a5098a1
Not long ago, Federal Reserve officials presumed that 2025 would simply be about getting to the soft landing
 
What the Fed’s Rate Policy Means for Your Finances
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/19/business/economy/interest-rates-consumers-savings-loans.html
Here’s how the central bank’s interest rate stance influences car loans, credit cards, mortgages, savings and student loans.

 
Does the Fed Share the Stock Market’s Worry About the Economy?
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/19/business/federal-reserve-economy-projections.html
 
Trump’s Tariffs Have Sown Uncertainty. That Might Be the Point.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/19/business/trump-tariffs-economy.html
President Trump’s economic advisers have used a hodgepodge of messages to justify starting trade wars that are spooking markets.
 
As Debt Ceiling Looms, the Fed Tweaks Its Portfolio Runoff
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-bond-portfolio-balance-sheet-debt-ceiling-75fc61eb
Process of shedding assets and draining bank reserves could collide with dynamics related to raising the federal debt limit. 

No Gain without Pain?

Trump Says a Recession Might Be Worth the Cost. Economists Disagree.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/18/business/economy/trump-recession-tariffs-inflation.html
President Trump and his advisers say his policies may cause short-term pain but will produce big gains over time. Many economists are skeptical.
 
Ending America’s addiction to high debt, big government was never going to be easy
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/comment/2025/03/17/america-debt-government-trump-musk/
Stock markets may be panicking. But Trump and Musk are honest enough to admit that there’s no gain without some pain.
 
Powell Contends with Double Threat of Economic Chaos and Political Hostility
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/jerome-powell-federal-reserve-trump-administration-723069d1
Federal Reserve is navigating the fog of a trade war from an administration ready to blame officials for any economic slowdown. 

Trump Policies are Certainly Having an Impact

Trump’s Hard-Line Tactics Are Driving Down Migration
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/16/world/americas/mexico-trump-migration.html
 
Nervous about Trump, international tourists scrap their U.S. travel plans
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/03/16/international-tourism-travel-trump-canada/
https://www.msn.com/en-ie/travel/news/angry-with-trump-international-tourists-scrap-their-u-s-travel-plans/ar-AA1B0VsN
The Trump administration’s hard stance on tariffs and other international policies has some travelers rethinking where they vacation. 

Crypto Reserve - A Dumb Idea

Cliff Asness: The New ‘Crypto Fort Knox’ Is as Dumb as It Sounds
https://www.thefp.com/p/trumps-crypto-fort-knox
To create a sovereign wealth fund dedicated to something five times or more as volatile as straight-up stocks is an awful idea. 

Investors are Getting Nervous About US Equities

The Days of Set-and-Forget Investing Just Ended for Many Americans
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/investing-stocks-risk-strategies-trump-policies-c4a5d3d9
President Trump’s economic policies are sending investors out of U.S. stocks and into cash, bonds, gold and European defense stocks.
 
Ride Out the Market Turmoil? Not These Investors.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/16/business/stock-market-investments-retirement.html
Some people are shifting their investment strategies as the stock market sours on President Trump, despite advice to maintain their savings and wait out the angst.

Slumping Stocks Threaten a Pillar of the Economy: Spending by the Wealthy
https://www.wsj.com/economy/slumping-stocks-threaten-a-pillar-of-the-economy-spending-by-the-wealthy-c23cabd4
Consumer spending is highly dependent on the affluent, who are highly dependent on the stock market.

 
Trump’s Moves Are Boosting Stocks … Overseas
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/16/business/trump-sp-500-stocks-europe-china.html
For years, the S&P 500 soared above the stock indexes of other countries. But since Trump’s inauguration, it has fallen 6 percent and is now trailing major markets in Europe and China. 

Physics and Quantum Computing

The Man Behind Microsoft’s Decadeslong Quest to Build a Quantum Computer
https://www.wsj.com/tech/microsoft-quantum-computing-chetan-nayak-84ad1c98
Chetan Nayak recently made a breakthrough after devoting his career to a new type of supercomputer. 

A Wider Travel Ban?

Draft List for New Travel Ban Proposes Trump Target 43 Countries
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/us/politics/trump-travel-ban.html
A draft circulating inside the administration lists three tiers of countries whose citizens may face restrictions on entering the United States. 

Starlink to Enter India

Elon Musk’s Starlink Pushes Its Way into India
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/13/business/starlink-india-musk.html 

RIP Ed Leamer

Edward Leamer, Economist Who Said Economists Were Doing It Wrong, Dies at 80
https://www.wsj.com/economy/edward-leamer-economist-dead-0b57e9c6
Preaching humility, he inspired new levels of transparency in economics and other fields. 

The Legal Profession

The Competition to Get into Law School Is Brutal This Year
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/education/law-school-application-increase-job-market-623bb314
Applications are surging as students seek stability in a difficult job market.
 
The young lawyers shunning £180,000 salaries for an easier life
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/03/15/young-lawyers-shunning-180000-salaries-easier-life/
Gen Z and millennial solicitors are forgoing big pay packets to prioritize work-life balance. 

Germany - Start of a New Era?

The End of Germany’s Economic Delusions?
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/germany-breaking-taboos-on-debt-and-monetary-financing-of-investment-by-katharina-pistor-2025-03
It took a pandemic and the threat of war to get Germany to dispense with the two taboos – against debt and monetary financing of budgets – that have strangled its governments for decades. Now, it must join the rest of Europe in offering a positive vision of self-sufficiency and an “anti-fascist economic policy.” 

Related:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-faces-debt-deal-cliffhanger-merz-strives-greens-backing-2025-03-14/
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/what-germanys-planned-spending-spree-could-mean-economy-2025-03-05/

Are Humans Becoming Less Intelligent?

Data across countries and ages reveal a growing struggle to concentrate, and declining verbal and numerical reasoning
https://www.ft.com/content/a8016c64-63b7-458b-a371-e0e1c54a13fc 

India's Take on the Changing World Order

FT’s Alec Russell Interviews India’s Foreign Minister - 
S. Jaishankar: ‘The virtues of the old world order are exaggerated’
https://www.ft.com/content/2877a710-8090-4104-b9c3-42a6b2d3a98f 

Energy Independence - The Long View

Trump’s oil triumphalism will end in American tears
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/03/14/trumps-oil-triumphalism-will-end-in-american-tears/
The US is taking a big risk by doubling down on fossils and combustion cars. It may find in the 2030s that it has achieved the worst of all words: left on the sidelines of the global electro-tech economy, while at the same dependent again on imported oil and gas. 

US Economy - Disruption versus Recession

How Wall Street and Business Got Trump Wrong
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/how-wall-street-and-business-got-trump-wrong-c0c00ea4
They thought his second term would be like the first, giving priority to economic growth and the stock market. Trump had other ideas.
 
Gillian Tett Discusses Donald Trump and the Economy
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-gillian-tett.html
 
Here’s Where to Look for Early Signs of a Recession
https://www.wsj.com/economy/recession-risk-economic-slowdown-signs-0b9d50c2
We already know what the jobs report tells us. But what about other indicators— like sales of mini liquor bottles?
 
This Stock Market Index Is Flashing a Clear Warning About the Economy
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/business/russell-2000-bear-market.html
The Russell 2000, which includes small companies that are more sensitive to downdrafts in the economy than those in the S&P 500, appears likely to enter a bear market.
 
Related:
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/business/sp-500-stock-market-trump.html 

The New Economics of Migration

The new economics of immigration
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/03/13/the-new-economics-of-immigration
A fresh critique of migration is gaining ground. Liberals must take it seriously.
 
Your guide to the new anti-immigration argument
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/03/13/your-guide-to-the-new-anti-immigration-argument
Nativists say that migrants raise house prices, cost money and undermine economic growth. Do they have a point? 

Misused Terminology

Why “labor shortages” don’t really exist
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/03/13/why-labour-shortages-dont-really-exist 

India's Beautiful Airport Terminals

Are these the world’s most beautiful airports?
https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/03/13/are-these-the-worlds-most-beautiful-airports
What spectacular new terminals reveal about a country. 

Pandemic School Closures - Lingering Effects

Would Schools Close in a Future Pandemic?
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/13/us/school-closures-future-pandemic.html
There is widespread agreement that pandemic school closures were devastating for children. Would that make a difference in a future health crisis?
 
Related:
https://www.nytimes.com/video/us/100000010028030/students-still-struggle-after-covid.html   

Latecomers to the Bitcoin Party

Cryptoverse: Bitcoin's bear market hits newcomers hardest
https://www.reuters.com/technology/cryptoverse-bitcoins-bear-market-hits-newcomers-hardest-2025-03-13/ 

Trump versus the Stock Market

An ‘Untradable’ Market: Trump Sows Profound Uncertainty for Stocks
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/13/business/trump-stock-market.html
The administration’s whipsawing moves are leaving investors guessing. The risk is that this uncertainty comes at a real cost to the economy.
 
Ignore the Trump slump – the market will recover
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/03/13/ignore-the-trump-slump-the-market-will-recover/
Investors must take volatility in their stride if they are to reap long-term gains.

Wall Street Fears Trump Will Wreck the Soft Landing

https://www.wsj.com/economy/trump-team-recession-hard-landing-c8f23d5d 
The economy’s pilot has a new message: Fasten your seat belts.

Investors Thought They Had Trump Figured Out. They Were Wrong.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/11/business/economy/trump-stock-market-economy.html
On Tuesday, President Trump sent markets into another tailspin by announcing additional tariffs on Canada, suggesting a falling stock market is no longer the bulwark investors had hoped.

 
Trade Deficits Are Capital Surpluses
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trade-deficits-are-capital-surpluses-why-tariffs-are-driving-us-stock-market-down-80f70799
Why tariffs are driving the U.S. stock market down.