Listen to the Bond Market, Because It’s Flashing a Warning
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/29/opinion/trump-inflation-bonds-debt-yield.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/29/opinion/trump-inflation-bonds-debt-yield.html
Is Now the Time to Buy Bonds? Watch the White House, Not the Fed.
Back to the future? The new interest rate normal might look a lot like the pre-crash era
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4299865-back-to-the-future-the-new-interest-rate-normal-might-look-a-lot-like-the-pre-crash-era/
Economic theory suggests that the 10-year T-note yield reflects expectations about the future path of short-term interest rates, which in turn reflect current expectations regarding inflation and economic growth. The term premium that goes with longer-term debt captures the risk compensation associated with the uncertainty surrounding future inflation and economic outlook, as well as the uncertainty surrounding interest rate changes that may occur over the life of the bond. After remaining persistently negative for several years, the term premium has finally turned positive.