Sunday, December 1, 2024

An Important Lesson for Climate Change (and Economic) Modelers

A surprise solar boom reveals a fatal flaw in our climate change projections
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/388506/solar-energy-power-projections-climate-change-pakistan
History has shown that cheap energy creates its own demand. When steam engines got more efficient in 19th century Britain, coal consumption grew. When oil got cheap and plentiful after World War II, humans didn’t enjoy the savings. They built more cars. More recently, in 2000, when estimating an industrializing China’s electricity demand for 2005, the Energy Information Administration’s projections were off by 25 percent.
Modelers try to project how much energy will be demanded years into the future. But those projects often fail to distinguish between how much energy is needed and how much is wanted.

A Chinese Perspective:
In a world of tariff threats, China opts to share green tech dividends
https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3288259/world-tariff-threats-china-opts-share-green-tech-dividends
China’s ‘new trio’ of EVs, lithium-ion batteries and solar panels represents the trickling down of tech dividends to people across the world