Do investors really think the US election dealt them a Trump card?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/12/03/do-investors-really-think-us-election-dealt-a-trump-card/
Traders are worried the president-elect is tooling up for a trade war, but they are still piling into US equities
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/12/03/do-investors-really-think-us-election-dealt-a-trump-card/
Traders are worried the president-elect is tooling up for a trade war, but they are still piling into US equities
The mother of all bubbles
Talk of bubbles in tech or AI, or in investment strategies focused on growth and momentum, obscures the mother of all bubbles in US markets. Thoroughly dominating the mind space of global investors, America is over-owned, overvalued and overhyped to a degree never seen before. As with all bubbles, it is hard to know when this one will deflate, or what will trigger its decline.
Stand by for financial instability
https://www.ft.com/content/3963b783-00da-44df-a45b-39b54b9f7c78
The combination of huge public debt issuance and Trump’s notorious unpredictability is a toxic mix for markets.
https://www.ft.com/content/3963b783-00da-44df-a45b-39b54b9f7c78
The combination of huge public debt issuance and Trump’s notorious unpredictability is a toxic mix for markets.
Will the Markets Check Trump’s Power?
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/29/business/stock-market-trump-tariffs-immigration.html
The president-elect cares about financial markets, our columnist says. That gives investors a restraint on his decisions, even if it’s a tenuous one.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/29/business/stock-market-trump-tariffs-immigration.html
The president-elect cares about financial markets, our columnist says. That gives investors a restraint on his decisions, even if it’s a tenuous one.
AI stocks: what if this time it really is different?
https://www.ft.com/content/6e893618-d75e-4e67-9876-249540a27d13
Some investors worry we’re in bubble territory, but others think a new paradigm has arrived.
Nvidia and the AI boom face a scaling problem
https://www.ft.com/content/f24ba8d5-4c33-47ef-a91e-8f76340b08c4
The idea that putting more data into a bigger model will deliver smarter systems is starting to break down.
America’s Trump market boom won’t overlook the little firms
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/28/americas-trump-market-boom-wont-overlook-the-little-firms/
As Goldman Sachs and others have pointed out, this matters. The expected return from shares is inversely correlated to these valuation measures at the time an investment is made. When you buy at a high valuation, your expected returns are low – and vice versa. This is true always and everywhere over the medium to long term even if over shorter periods valuation is a poor predictor of where markets are heading.
Most investors don’t want to believe that the very agreeable bull market of the past two years is hitting the limits of sustainability. Wishful thinking is a powerful force in financial markets and it is currently evident in the glass-half-full narrative surrounding the president-elect. Everyone sees the growth side of the tax cuts and tariffs coin, but no one wants to look at the inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates when it’s flipped over.
Related: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/21/miserable-markets-today-mask-the-innovations-of-the-future/
https://www.ft.com/content/6e893618-d75e-4e67-9876-249540a27d13
Some investors worry we’re in bubble territory, but others think a new paradigm has arrived.
Nvidia and the AI boom face a scaling problem
https://www.ft.com/content/f24ba8d5-4c33-47ef-a91e-8f76340b08c4
The idea that putting more data into a bigger model will deliver smarter systems is starting to break down.
America’s Trump market boom won’t overlook the little firms
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/28/americas-trump-market-boom-wont-overlook-the-little-firms/
As Goldman Sachs and others have pointed out, this matters. The expected return from shares is inversely correlated to these valuation measures at the time an investment is made. When you buy at a high valuation, your expected returns are low – and vice versa. This is true always and everywhere over the medium to long term even if over shorter periods valuation is a poor predictor of where markets are heading.
Most investors don’t want to believe that the very agreeable bull market of the past two years is hitting the limits of sustainability. Wishful thinking is a powerful force in financial markets and it is currently evident in the glass-half-full narrative surrounding the president-elect. Everyone sees the growth side of the tax cuts and tariffs coin, but no one wants to look at the inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates when it’s flipped over.
Related: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/21/miserable-markets-today-mask-the-innovations-of-the-future/