Attention Economy


Friday, November 8, 2024

Be Wary of US Fiscal Situation

George Soros’ 1980s US debt warning echoes today
https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/george-soros-1980s-us-debt-warning-echoes-today-2024-11-08/
Felix Martin:
Finally, there is the U.S. method of navigating the fiscal trilemma: increase public spending, cut taxes, and hope that financial stability will take care of itself. Leaving aside the small matter of a 20% hike in the price level over the past four years, that formula has worked nicely of late. Entranced by the United States’ still unrivalled geopolitical and financial supremacy, investors have thus far been willing to overlook the country’s equally supreme deficits and debt.
Yet even that spell won’t hold forever. At some point, U.S. bond holders will revolt too. With the yield on the 30-year Treasuries up about 70 basis points since the Federal Reserve’s mid-September rate cut, the reckoning may be closer than many realise.

Trump is in danger of falling into the Truss trap
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/09/trump-is-in-danger-of-falling-into-the-truss-trap-us-debt/
If there is any domestic risk in the US that could tip over into a full-blown crisis, it’s debt