Attention Economy


Friday, November 29, 2024

Wealth Taxation: Has Norway Gone Too Far?

 How Taxing Unrealized Gains Has Caused an Entrepreneurial Exodus
https://paragraph.xyz/@hagaetc/norway-shrugged  

UK’s Landmark Decision – Passage of Assisted Dying Bill

The power behind the vote for assisted dying? Ordinary people
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/nov/29/the-power-behind-the-vote-for-assisted-dying-ordinary-people
 
The assisted dying bill has passed. At last: a decent life can end in a decent death
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/29/assisted-dying-bill-life-death-mps 

British Lawmakers Vote to Legalize Assisted Dying in Landmark Decision
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/29/world/europe/uk-assisted-dying-bill-vote.html
After an emotional debate, Parliament voted on Friday in favor of allowing assisted suicide for some terminally ill people in England and Wales.

The Case for Cash

The move from physical money to digital transactions may be leaving nations exposed to Russian cyber-attacks
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/29/going-cashless-threatens-play-straight-putin-hands/ 

The Cost of Going Cashless
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/13/opinion/cashless-pay-problem.html
PAMELA PAUL correctly notes:
Consumers also pay in terms of privacy. Do you want your payment app or credit card company to share exactly how many beers or Big Macs you’ve bought in the past week with its data partners, or to know every item you picked up at the pharmacy? And while a cash system is subject to crime, like employee theft and robbery, digital payments aren’t without their own risks, including double charges and identity theft.
But the most significant objection to a cashless system is whom it shuts out. Whereas cash enables everyone, no matter their age, credit history, immigration status or income, to pay directly for goods or services rather than use an intermediary, credit cards generally require a bank account. 

Risks Associated with Running the Economy Hot

How Democrats Blew It on Inflation
https://www.wsj.com/economy/inflation-joe-biden-mistakes-aa77b9cf
In avoiding the missteps that followed the 2008-09 financial crisis, officials made new mistakes that led to political defeat.
 
How Inflation Killed Bidenomics
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/how-inflation-killed-bidenomics-hewlett-foundation-government-spending-94f11352
The California-based Hewlett Foundation pushed the idea of a federal spend-a-thon.
 
My warning from early 2021:
The pros and cons of running the economy hot by Vivekanand Jayakumar, The Hill - 02/01/21
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/536691-the-pros-and-cons-of-running-the-economy-hot 

The Downside of Identity Politics

Democrats and the Case of Mistaken Identity Politics

Democrats need less identity politics, more practical economics
https://thehill.com/opinion/5004793-democrats-focus-working-class/

Does the Fed Need Greater Oversight?

Trump Should Challenge the Fed’s Policies
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-is-right-to-put-the-screws-on-the-fed-interest-rates-inflation-4709d07a
An independent agency of government shouldn’t have such enormous power to skew financial outcomes. 

My take from 2020:

Rise of China's Auto Sector

Thursday, November 28, 2024

Populist Backlash Against Neo-Liberalism and Globalization

This Maverick Thinker Is the Karl Marx of Our Time
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/28/opinion/wolfgang-streeck-populism.html
A uniform set of laws also requires a single international norm. Which norm? That’s another problem, as Mr. Streeck sees it: The global regime we have is a reliable copy of the American one. This brings order and efficiency but also tilts the playing field in favor of American corporations, banks and investors.
Perhaps that is what blighted the West’s relations with Russia, where the transition to global capitalism “was tightly controlled by American government agencies, foundations and N.G.O.s,” Mr. Streeck says, and the oligarchs who emerged to run the government in the 1990s were “received with open arms by American corporations and, not least, the London real estate market.” To an Indian or a Chinese person, “free markets” established on these terms might carry the threat of imperial highhandedness and lost self-determination. 

Joe Stiglitz:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/nov/28/the-message-to-democrats-is-clear-you-must-dump-neoliberal-economics
Americans, it seems, have lost trust in their institutions and the belief that government will deliver for them. It is the predictable result of 45 years of Republican (and neoliberal Democratic) campaigning, starting with Ronald Reagan’s famous quip that “the nine most terrifying words in the English language are: ‘I’m from the government, and I’m here to help.’”
The culture wars also played a big role in Trump’s victory. His campaign successfully pushed the message that Democrats are obsessed with gender, race and other social issues at a time when most Americans are just trying to get by. Many voters concluded that Trump would reverse or at least slow the pace of disorienting changes that have challenged long-established social hierarchies and roles.


How American Institutions Went from Trust to Bust
https://www.wsj.com/articles/american-institutions-went-from-trust-to-bust-media-schools-business-promises-43c8d18
Leaders betrayed and disdained the people, and partisanship and social media didn’t help.

Europe’s Populist Surge Isn’t Only About Immigration, It Is About Fading Trust
Antiestablishment populism is on the rise in Europe, fueled not just by migration and economic and security fears, but by a deeper trend: Eroding confidence in governments’ ability to overcome those challenges.
 
Why German Angst Is a Worry for the World
If the economy doesn’t grow, battles about immigration, fairness and spending will only get worse.

Insights for Thoughtful Investors

Do investors really think the US election dealt them a Trump card?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/12/03/do-investors-really-think-us-election-dealt-a-trump-card/
Traders are worried the president-elect is tooling up for a trade war, but they are still piling into US equities

The mother of all bubbles
Talk of bubbles in tech or AI, or in investment strategies focused on growth and momentum, obscures the mother of all bubbles in US markets. Thoroughly dominating the mind space of global investors, America is over-owned, overvalued and overhyped to a degree never seen before. As with all bubbles, it is hard to know when this one will deflate, or what will trigger its decline.

Stand by for financial instability
https://www.ft.com/content/3963b783-00da-44df-a45b-39b54b9f7c78
The combination of huge public debt issuance and Trump’s notorious unpredictability is a toxic mix for markets.

Will the Markets Check Trump’s Power?
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/29/business/stock-market-trump-tariffs-immigration.html
The president-elect cares about financial markets, our columnist says. That gives investors a restraint on his decisions, even if it’s a tenuous one.


AI stocks: what if this time it really is different?
https://www.ft.com/content/6e893618-d75e-4e67-9876-249540a27d13
Some investors worry we’re in bubble territory, but others think a new paradigm has arrived.
 
Nvidia and the AI boom face a scaling problem
https://www.ft.com/content/f24ba8d5-4c33-47ef-a91e-8f76340b08c4
The idea that putting more data into a bigger model will deliver smarter systems is starting to break down.
 
America’s Trump market boom won’t overlook the little firms
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/28/americas-trump-market-boom-wont-overlook-the-little-firms/
As Goldman Sachs and others have pointed out, this matters. The expected return from shares is inversely correlated to these valuation measures at the time an investment is made. When you buy at a high valuation, your expected returns are low – and vice versa. This is true always and everywhere over the medium to long term even if over shorter periods valuation is a poor predictor of where markets are heading.
Most investors don’t want to believe that the very agreeable bull market of the past two years is hitting the limits of sustainability. Wishful thinking is a powerful force in financial markets and it is currently evident in the glass-half-full narrative surrounding the president-elect. Everyone sees the growth side of the tax cuts and tariffs coin, but no one wants to look at the inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates when it’s flipped over.
 
Related: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/21/miserable-markets-today-mask-the-innovations-of-the-future/ 

Data Issues in Economic Development

Why Is Growth in Developing Countries So Hard to Measure?
https://www.jstor.org/stable/27041222
 
How Much Should We Trust Developing Country GDP?
https://www.global-developments.org/p/how-much-should-we-trust-developing
 
Statistical Capacity Indicators
https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/statistical-performance-indicators
 
National Sample Survey: How India taught the world the art of collecting data
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-61870699 

The Problem with HR

A shadow HR empire runs Britain – and it’s getting bigger
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/12/02/shadow-hr-empire-runs-britain-its-getting-bigger/
Far from fixing our problems, the sector’s creeping influence has found us more miserable and unproductive than ever.

HR Britain: how human resources captured the nation
https://www.newstatesman.com/business/2024/11/hr-britain-how-human-resources-captured-the-nation
Is HR the force holding back our economy? 

Thomas Mann's The Magic Mountain - Still Relevant?

Why The Magic Mountain is still relevant a century later
https://www.ft.com/content/16bbd874-0931-42ac-83e4-8598fdc22603
Thomas Mann might have published his literary masterpiece 100 years ago — but it still speaks with modern clarity


Thomas Mann and the European disease of nihilism
https://www.newstatesman.com/ideas/2024/11/thomas-mann-and-the-european-disease-of-nihilism
Tanjil Rashid notes:
When I visited Davos, I had gone in search of the enduring relevance of The Magic Mountain. Little did I know that the novel’s centre of gravity had mysteriously migrated. Its dialectical questions are now more alive in Asia than Europe. Today’s Settembrinis, its Naphtas, fight it out there in the manically modernising countries of the east, where the bourgeois nation-state is still making its case against the seductions of theocracy and tribalism. For us children of Asia, it feels absurd now to read of Europe as the continent of “transforming action” and Asia as that of “inertia”. It is Asia that today actively transforms itself – while Europe lies inert. History has, with its mesmeric wand, performed a magic trick on The Magic Mountain; it reversed its poles… But the spark, one hundred years on, is still undiminished. 

You’re All Paying Attention to the Wrong Davos
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-01-19/davos-2024-why-go-to-world-economic-forum-when-you-could-read-thomas-mann
There’s no point in going to the World Economic Forum when you could be reading Thomas Mann’s The Magic Mountain.

Real Wage Growth

China and Russia Lead Wage Recovery While Rich Economies Lag Behind, U.N. Says
https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/china-and-russia-lead-wage-recovery-while-rich-economies-lag-behind-un-says-5d23ca68
Real wages remain below their prepandemic levels in many parts of the world


Pay languishes below 2008 levels as Britain lags behind rich world
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/28/pay-below-2008-levels-britain-lags-behind-rich-world/ 

Techno Realism

The Techno-Realist Manifesto
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/techno-realist-manifesto-how-to-think-about-progress-by-nicholas-agar-and-stuart-whatley-2024-11
Amid a confounding mix of hype and genuinely valuable innovation, today’s entrepreneurs, scientists, and other experts betray an abiding belief that technological progress will make us healthier, wealthier, and wiser. But there are strong reasons why we should not bet everything on future world-changing breakthroughs. 

The productivity paradox redux
https://www.newstatesman.com/spotlight/tech-regulation/public-sector-tech/2024/11/nhs-civil-service-public-sector-productivity-paradox-redux
From Whitehall to the town hall, technology continues to frustrate.

Banking Lessons from the Great Depression

Quincy, Sarah. 2024. "Loans for the "Little Fellow": Credit, Crisis, and Recovery in the Great Depression." American Economic Review, 114 (12): 3905–43.
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20211523
Abstract
This paper identifies how bank branching benefited local economies during the Great Depression. Using archival data and narrative evidence, I show how Bank of America's branch network in 1930s California created an internal capital market that diversified away local liquidity shortfalls, allowing the bank to maintain 49 percent higher credit growth from 1929 to 1933 than competing banks. The bank's presence mitigated cites' property value contractions and strengthened their recovery through 1940. Linked individual data show that the bank's proximity to workers hastened the transition from agricultural employment to human-capital–intensive sectors in the 1930s, generating structural change and higher wages. 

Wednesday, November 27, 2024

Ireland: Economics and Politics

Ireland Is Rich. That Doesn’t Mean It’s Happy.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/27/opinion/ireland-election-simon-harris.html
Fintan O’Toole:
For U.S. multinationals looking for a base in the European Union, Ireland’s low corporate tax rate, highly educated work force and stable politics, combined with the familiarity of the English language, a common law system and close historical and cultural ties, have exerted a magnetic attraction.
Think of an American multinational — Apple, Pfizer, Meta, Microsoft, Intel, Boston Scientific — and the chances are that it is one of the thousand or so U.S. companies with an Irish operation. These companies spend more than $40 billion a year in a country with a population of just over five million. To put that in context, the stock of U.S. foreign direct investment in Ireland in 2022 stood at $574 billion, roughly triple the total in China and India put together.
As well as paying a lot of wages, these companies give the Irish treasury a windfall of corporate taxes — the full-year total could reach a new high of about 30 billion euros this year. With this much money coming in, the government has been able to live every politician’s dream: cutting income taxes while increasing public spending and reducing debt.  

The Irish Government Is Unbelievably Rich. It’s Largely Thanks to Uncle Sam.
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/the-irish-government-is-unbelievably-rich-its-largely-thanks-to-uncle-sam-92494310
A clampdown on global corporate tax dodging turned Ireland into the nouveau riche man of Europe. 

Tuesday, November 26, 2024

Smart Robots

A Revolution in How Robots Learn
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2024/12/02/a-revolution-in-how-robots-learn
A future generation of robots will not be programmed to complete specific tasks. Instead, they will use A.I. to teach themselves. 


How AI is powering a robotics revolution
https://ig.ft.com/ai-robots/

Robots Struggle to Match Warehouse Workers on ‘Really Hard’ Jobs
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/19/business/robots-warehouses-amazon.html
The machines can load and unload trucks, move goods and do other repetitive tasks but are stymied by some, like picking items from a pile. 

Global Talent Wars

China Is Bombarding Tech Talent with Job Offers. The West Is Freaking Out.
https://www.wsj.com/world/china-tech-poaching-job-offer-pay-raise-f8ceac5b
Chinese firms offer to triple engineers’ pay in a bid to catch up with Silicon Valley

Why are top scientists leaving the West for China?
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3288447/why-are-top-scientists-leaving-west-china
A growing number of leading academics are being tempted away from Western countries as they make the move to Chinese institutions


Germany aims to draw 90,000 skilled Indians annually to fill jobs
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Immigration/Germany-aims-to-draw-90-000-skilled-Indians-annually-to-fill-jobs
STEM professionals from India earn highest wages in Europe's biggest economy 

Is Ignorance Bliss?

The Surprising Allure of Ignorance
Professor Mark Lilla:
Aristotle taught that all human beings want to know. Our own experience teaches us that all human beings also want not to know, sometimes fiercely so. This has always been true, but there are certain historical periods when the denial of evident truths seems to be gaining the upper hand, as if some psychological virus were spreading by unknown means, the antidote suddenly powerless. This is one of those periods.
Increasing numbers of people today reject reasoning as a fool’s game that only cloaks the machinations of power. Others think instead that they have a special access to truth that exempts them from questioning, like a draft deferment. Mesmerized crowds follow preposterous prophets, irrational rumors trigger fanatical acts and magical thinking crowds out common sense and expertise. And to top it off we have elite prophets of ignorance, those learned despisers of learning who idealize “the people” and encourage them to resist doubt and build ramparts around their fixed beliefs.
 
Ignorance and Bliss: On Wanting Not to Know by Mark Lilla review – the enduring power of stupidity
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2024/nov/24/ignorance-and-bliss-on-wanting-not-to-know-by-mark-lilla-review-the-enduring-power-of-stupidity
John Banville:
The central premise of the book is simply stated: “How is it that we are creatures who want to know and not to know?” Lilla, professor of humanities at Columbia University, New York, and the author of a handful of masterly studies of the terrain where political and intellectual sensibilities collide, is an acute observer of the vagaries of human behaviour and thought in general, and of our tendency to self-delusion in particular.




Ignorance is not always bliss — and not always bad — a new book argues
https://www.washingtonpost.com/books/2023/02/10/ignorance-book-peter-burke/