https://www.ft.com/content/6a655117-09e1-41ae-9b16-fe266bf8a440
Why the Federal Reserve is split on the future of interest rates
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/09/26/why-the-federal-reserve-is-split-on-the-future-of-interest-rates
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4701798-the-fed-needs-to-set-a-higher-target-for-long-term-interest-rates/
Confusion
surrounding the future path of short-term policy rates (partly a result
of Fed’s data-dependent approach) has contributed to recent
fluctuations in market rates. Additionally, the failure of the Fed to
recognize and highlight underlying structural shifts in the
post-pandemic era is causing persistent market mispricing of equilibrium
rates and term premia.
Deglobalization and trade
fragmentation, explosive growth in public debt, demographic shifts
highlighted by a rapidly aging population, revival of labor’s bargaining
power, expensive green transition to deal with climate change, and the
AI-led investment spike are all factors that are likely to generate
persistently higher neutral interest rates.