Are Americans ready to give up on Ukraine?
By Robert Kagan
As the war in Ukraine continues to drag on with no
obvious good end in sight for Ukrainians, folks who are not Ukrainian have
begun talking about and yearning for a negotiated settlement. As National
Security Council spokesman John Kirby recently put it, “A negotiated end is the
most likely outcome here.” And we know what that means for Ukraine. As Czech
President Petr Pavel, a longtime supporter of Kyiv, bluntly put it: Ukrainians
“will have to be realistic” and understand that “the most probable outcome of
the war will be that a part of Ukrainian territory will be under Russian
occupation, temporarily.”
Why should Putin negotiate? By Sergey Radchenko
Four scenarios for the end of the war in Ukraine
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/10/four-scenarios-end-war-ukraine/determinants-peace
There are four possible outcomes for Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine: ‘long war’, ‘frozen conflict’, ‘victory for Ukraine’ and ‘defeat for Ukraine’. Regardless of which scenario emerges, the far-reaching and traumatic sociological, economic and political impacts of the war will be inescapable.
The main strategic challenge that will confront Ukraine when martial law is lifted is whether the country will be able to maintain sufficient unity and resolve to strengthen its institutions and economy to allow it to recover and defend itself against future attack. The end of martial law will bring further uncertainty in the shape of parliamentary and presidential elections that are required by the country’s constitution. New political players, including military veterans and representatives of the civil volunteer movement, seeking to uproot Ukraine’s system of crony capitalism will compete for power against established interests determined to protect their positions.
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/10/four-scenarios-end-war-ukraine/determinants-peace
There are four possible outcomes for Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine: ‘long war’, ‘frozen conflict’, ‘victory for Ukraine’ and ‘defeat for Ukraine’. Regardless of which scenario emerges, the far-reaching and traumatic sociological, economic and political impacts of the war will be inescapable.
The main strategic challenge that will confront Ukraine when martial law is lifted is whether the country will be able to maintain sufficient unity and resolve to strengthen its institutions and economy to allow it to recover and defend itself against future attack. The end of martial law will bring further uncertainty in the shape of parliamentary and presidential elections that are required by the country’s constitution. New political players, including military veterans and representatives of the civil volunteer movement, seeking to uproot Ukraine’s system of crony capitalism will compete for power against established interests determined to protect their positions.
Finland warns of increasing Ukraine fatigue among
distracted west
Western states are tiring in their support for Ukraine
and increasingly hoping for some form of conflict resolution, Finland’s foreign
minister has warned, as she urged her colleagues in western states to redouble
their efforts to help Kyiv.
Context: Russia launched its full-scale invasion of
Ukraine in February 2022 and President Vladimir Putin has vowed to maintain the
war of attrition in the country’s east. Some western officials have begun
privately discussing ways to reach a ceasefire despite Putin’s troops occupying
about a fifth of Ukraine’s territory.
“It’s real,” Elina Valtonen said of western fatigue.
“And increasingly so.”
https://www.newstatesman.com/international-content/2024/10/putin-stares-down-the-west
With Russia’s war economy roaring, the balance of power is shifting in the Kremlin’s favour.
Making Sense of Russia’s War Economy
https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/russia-war-economy-short-term-strength-mortgaging-the-future-by-konstantin-sonin-2024-10
Despite the apparent resilience of Russia's economy, Vladimir Putin’s full-scale war against Ukraine comes at a high economic cost. Not only does it require today’s Russians to live a worse life than they otherwise would have done; it also condemns future generations to the same.