Attention Economy


Sunday, September 15, 2024

Economic Concerns and the Fed Rate Cut Debate

Fed Prepares to Lower Rates, With Size of First Cut in Doubt
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-interest-rate-cut-size-79a238ca
The central bank usually prefers to move in increments of a quarter point. This time, it’s complicated.

Fed Enters Tricky Terrain: Rate Cuts in a Decent Economy
https://www.wsj.com/economy/fed-interest-rate-cut-affect-economy-6f7f3335
 
The Fed Is Still Banking on a Labor Market Miracle
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/16/business/economy/fed-interest-rates-labor.html
The Federal Reserve is poised to lower interest rates this week. Recent jobs data have been a reminder that a soft landing is not yet assured.
 
The Fed Should Go Big Now. I Think It Will.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-09-16/the-fed-should-cut-50-basis-points-now-and-i-think-it-will


Interest Rates Are Too High. The Fed Should Cut by a Half Point.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/interest-rates-are-too-high-the-fed-should-cut-by-a-half-point-e7855ea8
With rates so far from ‘neutral’ and the labor market cooling, it’s better to start big.

The Fed’s Rate-Cut Dilemma: Start Big or Small?
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-interest-rate-cut-size-861c9600  
That the Fed will cut rates at its meeting next week is all but settled. But how much is shaping up to be a close call. 

Wall Street Turns Skittish on Eve of Rate Cuts
https://www.wsj.com/finance/wall-street-turns-skittish-on-eve-of-rate-cuts-5e97c19c
Bond investors are suddenly bracing for a downturn, while equity investors appear more sanguine.

A Recession Signal Is Flashing Red. Or Is It?
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/a-recession-signal-is-flashing-red-or-is-it-da02b509
When the yield curve turns positive, the country is usually about to plunge into recession. Hope this time relies on a few historical exceptions. 

Layoffs Are Few. So Why Are Jobs Harder to Find?
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/12/business/economy/layoffs-jobs-economy.html
Past economic cycles show that unemployment starts to tick up ahead of a recession, with wide-scale layoffs coming only later.

Why a Fed Rate Cut Won’t Solve the Housing Wealth Gap
https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/interest-rate-cut-housing-mortgage-prices-8c12464b
With home prices near record highs and cost of home insurance and property taxes rising, affordability remains an issue.