Is Jerome Powell’s Fed Pulling Off a Soft Landing?
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/14/business/economy/jerome-powell-soft-landing.html
It’s too soon to declare victory, but the economic outlook seems sunnier than it did a year ago, and many economists are predicting a surprising win.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/14/business/economy/jerome-powell-soft-landing.html
It’s too soon to declare victory, but the economic outlook seems sunnier than it did a year ago, and many economists are predicting a surprising win.
Conditions Look Right for a Soft Landing. Here’s
Why It Will Be Difficult.
https://www.wsj.com/video/series/news-explainers/conditions-look-right-for-a-soft-landing-heres-why-it-will-be-difficult/3326515F-9323-468E-B6EC-34A3B885E2E5
The Fed Underwrites the Recovery
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/the-fed-underwrites-the-recovery-0573826c
Central bank’s focus is now on preventing a recession, not just beating inflation. The market’s rally will help.
https://www.wsj.com/video/series/news-explainers/conditions-look-right-for-a-soft-landing-heres-why-it-will-be-difficult/3326515F-9323-468E-B6EC-34A3B885E2E5
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/the-fed-underwrites-the-recovery-0573826c
Central bank’s focus is now on preventing a recession, not just beating inflation. The market’s rally will help.
The Markets Are Getting Ahead of the Fed
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/14/business/economy/markets-federal-reserve-stocks-bonds.html
Stock and bond markets have been rallying in anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts. But don’t get swept away just yet, our columnist says.
Goldman Revises Fed Call, Seeing ‘Earlier and Faster’ Cuts
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-14/goldman-revises-fed-call-now-seeing-earlier-and-faster-cuts
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/14/business/economy/markets-federal-reserve-stocks-bonds.html
Stock and bond markets have been rallying in anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts. But don’t get swept away just yet, our columnist says.
Goldman Revises Fed Call, Seeing ‘Earlier and Faster’ Cuts
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-14/goldman-revises-fed-call-now-seeing-earlier-and-faster-cuts
The Fed’s Yield-Curve Problem
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/the-feds-yield-curve-problem-4f93ebf7
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/the-feds-yield-curve-problem-4f93ebf7
Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged and Signals Three Cuts Next Year
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/13/business/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rates.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/13/business/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rates.html
FOMC Statement – December 2023:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20231213a1.pdf
Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has slowed from its strong pace in the third quarter. Job gains have moderated since earlier in the year but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.
The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. The Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of any additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20231213a1.pdf
Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has slowed from its strong pace in the third quarter. Job gains have moderated since earlier in the year but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.
The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. The Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of any additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
