Why these reliable recession indicators are
faltering
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-why-these-reliable-recession-indicators-are-faltering/
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-why-these-reliable-recession-indicators-are-faltering/
How Were So Many Economists So Wrong About the
Recession?
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-12-26/what-recession-how-so-many-economists-got-it-so-wrong
Fears of a recession are fading fast, but the debate over the flaws of economic forecasting is just beginning.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-12-26/what-recession-how-so-many-economists-got-it-so-wrong
Fears of a recession are fading fast, but the debate over the flaws of economic forecasting is just beginning.
Tyler Cowen:
There is a reason that so many economists had been
predicting a recession — and it is not because they are out of touch, or
repeating talking points from Donald Trump’s presidential campaign. They
predicted a recession because that is what experts such as Yellen, Krugman,
Romer and many others had been teaching for decades. I do not myself presume to
have any immunity from the general confusion here, as all along I thought there
was a reasonable chance of a recession.
Lawrence Summers turned out to be wrong in predicting that disinflation would have huge costs in terms of employment and output, and now he is catching grief for this on social media. Yet at least he was drawing upon a consistent model. The problem is that the real world is not as consistent as model builders might like.
The solution here is not to sweep past doctrine under the rug; it’s to be more forthright. Macroeconomists very often don’t know what is going on, and that holds true for all the different styles and flavors of macro.
Lawrence Summers turned out to be wrong in predicting that disinflation would have huge costs in terms of employment and output, and now he is catching grief for this on social media. Yet at least he was drawing upon a consistent model. The problem is that the real world is not as consistent as model builders might like.
The solution here is not to sweep past doctrine under the rug; it’s to be more forthright. Macroeconomists very often don’t know what is going on, and that holds true for all the different styles and flavors of macro.
Economists had a dreadful 2023
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/12/20/economists-had-a-dreadful-2023
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/12/20/economists-had-a-dreadful-2023
Wall St. Loves to Guess, but Nobody Knows What the Market Will Do in 2024
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/23/business/wall-st-loves-to-guess-but-nobody-knows-what-the-market-will-do-in-2024.html
So-called stock forecasts don’t deserve the name, our columnist says. Wall Street’s track record is horrendous.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/23/business/wall-st-loves-to-guess-but-nobody-knows-what-the-market-will-do-in-2024.html
So-called stock forecasts don’t deserve the name, our columnist says. Wall Street’s track record is horrendous.