BLS on Data Revisions:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 62,000, from +227,000 to +165,000, and the change for September was revised down by 39,000, from +336,000 to +297,000. With these revisions, employment in August and September combined is 101,000 lower than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-03/us-unemployment-rise-on-verge-of-triggering-sahm-recession-rule
My note from July 2023:
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4121540-traditional-recession-indicators-have-misfired-are-we-in-for-a-sneaky-recession/
The Sahm Rule, another widely-followed recession indicator, is based on the empirical regularity that a recession usually occurs when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises half a point above its 12-month low. But in recent quarters, despite signs of economic softening, firms have tended to hoard labor, potentially distorting labor market signals.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 62,000, from +227,000 to +165,000, and the change for September was revised down by 39,000, from +336,000 to +297,000. With these revisions, employment in August and September combined is 101,000 lower than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)
Sharp U.S. Hiring Slowdown Signals Cooling Economy
Ahead
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/what-to-watch-in-fridays-jobs-report-how-long-can-labor-market-keep-booming-344f5a1a
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/what-to-watch-in-fridays-jobs-report-how-long-can-labor-market-keep-booming-344f5a1a
The Improbably Strong Economy
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/the-improbably-strong-economy-a5c6bc38
A lot had to go right for the U.S. to avoid a recession. So far, it has.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/the-improbably-strong-economy-a5c6bc38
A lot had to go right for the U.S. to avoid a recession. So far, it has.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-03/us-unemployment-rise-on-verge-of-triggering-sahm-recession-rule
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4121540-traditional-recession-indicators-have-misfired-are-we-in-for-a-sneaky-recession/
The Sahm Rule, another widely-followed recession indicator, is based on the empirical regularity that a recession usually occurs when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises half a point above its 12-month low. But in recent quarters, despite signs of economic softening, firms have tended to hoard labor, potentially distorting labor market signals.