Hitch Your Wagon to R-Star
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/25/opinion/natural-interest-rate-r-star.html
Investors see a high-spending new normal keeping
interest rates and inflation elevated.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-24/bond-market-flashes-warning-as-us-budget-deficit-surges
My take from May 25, 2022:
Where are interest rates headed?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3500474-where-are-interest-rates-headed/
The Fed’s consensus estimate for the neutral rate (of around 2.5 percent) may turn out to be incorrect if de-globalization, demographic and labor supply shifts and other structural changes fundamentally alter the U.S. economy. The long-run neutral rate is determined by the supply and demand for savings, and they in turn are dependent on factors such as productivity growth, international capital flows and demographics.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/25/opinion/natural-interest-rate-r-star.html
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-24/bond-market-flashes-warning-as-us-budget-deficit-surges
Where are interest rates headed?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3500474-where-are-interest-rates-headed/
The Fed’s consensus estimate for the neutral rate (of around 2.5 percent) may turn out to be incorrect if de-globalization, demographic and labor supply shifts and other structural changes fundamentally alter the U.S. economy. The long-run neutral rate is determined by the supply and demand for savings, and they in turn are dependent on factors such as productivity growth, international capital flows and demographics.