The Migrant Crisis Facing the Europe and the US

Suella Braverman speaks for ordinary people – and that’s why Leftist elites detest her
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2022/11/02/suella-braverman-speaks-ordinary-people-why-leftist-elites/
 
The migration system is broken and too few are honest enough to admit it
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/11/01/migration-system-broken-honest-enough-admit/

The invisible migration crisis on von der Leyen’s doorstep
https://www.politico.eu/article/migration-crisis-ursula-von-der-leyens-european-commission-brussels/
 
Central America’s Turbulent Northern Triangle
https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/central-americas-turbulent-northern-triangle

Migrants from three countries are driving the spike in encounters at the southern border, swamping a backlogged immigration system
https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/07/us/migrant-asylum-immigration-backlog

America’s Failure to Reform its Immigration System is Now Hurting Skilled Migration:

U.S. Immigration Has Become an Elaborate Bait and Switch
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/27/us-immigration-green-cards-biden-congress-reform-midterm-elections-india-china-canada/

Affirmative Action and Campus Diversity Debate

Affirmative Action Is Wrong. There’s a Better Way to Make Campuses Diverse.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/30/opinion/affirmative-action-harvard-unc-supreme-court.html 

Renu Mukherjee, policy analyst at the Manhattan Institute, notes:
“Racial preferences in college admissions are wrong, and not just because they make it more difficult for certain racial groups over others to gain admission. Race-conscious admissions programs are wrong also because they promote the view that certain types of diversity matter more than others, that certain stories are more worth telling than others.
This is obviously misguided. On a university campus, true diversity should encompass all aspects of a student’s personhood that could contribute to the educational environment, like whether the student is a spelling bee champion, grew up in a single-parent household, or worked in a New York pizza parlor”. 

Why the architecture of affirmative action was always destined to collapse
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/11/01/supreme-court-affirmative-action-demographic-change-tensions/

Universities want to protect the status quo, because it’s easy for them.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/10/supreme-court-harvard-affirmative-action-legacy-admissions-equity/671869/
 
Duke economics professor's analysis to be used in Supreme Court's affirmative action case decision
https://www.dukechronicle.com/article/2022/01/harvard-unc-affirmative-action-case-race-admissions-peter-arcidiacano-david-card-expert-witness-duke-university
Related:
https://www.newsweek.com/affirmative-action-racistagainst-asians-its-time-scotus-overturn-it-opinion-1753623

Elite Colleges’ Quiet Fight to Favor Alumni Children
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/13/us/legacy-admissions-colleges-universities.html
Colleges like Yale and Harvard give a boost to legacy applicants. But with affirmative action under attack, that tradition may become harder to defend. 

Global Inflation Pressures Remain Elevated

Eurozone Inflation Reaches 10.7 Percent as Economies Slow Down
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/31/business/economy/eurozone-inflation-gdp.html

What is the UK inflation rate and why is the cost of living rising?
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-12196322

Wages Are Soaring in US Cities with the Highest Inflation

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-28/wages-are-soaring-in-us-inflation-hotspots-from-miami-to-phoenix
 
U.S. Wages Rose Rapidly in Third Quarter, Keeping Pressure on Inflation
https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-inflation-wages-employment-cost-index-q3-2022-11666925660 

Brazil's Close Elections

Lula defeats Bolsonaro to win third term as Brazil’s president
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/30/lula-wins-brazil-election/
Brazil Ejects Bolsonaro and Brings Back Leftist Former Leader Lula
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/30/world/americas/lula-election-results-brazil-bolsonaro.html
Bolsonaro remains silent after election defeat to Lula as key allies accept result
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/31/brazil-election-bolsonaro-concede-reaction
 
Related:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/31/opinion/brazil-election-lula-bolsonaro.html 

The Return of Industrial Policy

Joe Biden attempts the biggest overhaul of America’s economy in decades
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2022/10/27/joe-biden-attempts-the-biggest-overhaul-of-americas-economy-in-decades

‘Industrial Policy’ Is Back: The West Dusts Off Old Idea to Counter China
https://www.wsj.com/articles/subsidies-chips-china-state-aid-biden-11627565906 

The Return of the Policy That Shall Not Be Named: Principles of Industrial Policy
https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WP/2019/WPIEA2019074.ashx
 
Many countries are seeing a revival of industrial policy
https://www.economist.com/special-report/2022/01/10/many-countries-are-seeing-a-revival-of-industrial-policy
 
Industrial Policy’s Comeback
https://bostonreview.net/forum/industrial-policys-comeback/ 

Escaping Scientific Stagnation

How to escape scientific stagnation
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/10/26/how-to-escape-scientific-stagnation 

Is Britain a Melting Pot?

HIGHLY RECOMMENDED: 

Ignore the cynics – Britain has become the greatest melting pot in the world
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/29/ignore-cynics-britain-has-become-greatest-melting-pot-world/

The Sunak premiership matters because it highlights how those of Indian descent are starting to look like the most successful immigrant group since the Huguenots. Rather than talk about British Asians as set-upon or discriminated against, it might be better to ask what they have been doing right – and what can be learned. If brown skin is not, in and of itself, a barrier to advancing in Britain, then a new conversation can start about what factors really are at play. And whether geographical location, social class or other factors are driving the growing and indefensible divides.

Related:

Rishi Sunak Shows the Growing Influence of Indian Talent in the West

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/rishi-sunak-shows-the-growing-influence-of-indian-talent-in-the-west/2022/10/27/eb7b6000-5670-11ed-ac8b-08bbfab1c5a5_story.html

India is by far the world’s most significant source of undiscovered and undervalued skills. 

Corruption and Government Welfare Programs

Mississippi Shows What’s Wrong with Welfare in America
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/10/mississippi-welfare-tanf-fraud/671922/
Public officials plundered a system built on contempt for poor people. 

India's Talent Pool

Rishi Sunak Shows the Growing Influence of Indian Talent in the West
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-10-28/rishi-sunak-shows-growing-influence-of-indian-talent-in-west
India is by far the world’s most significant source of undiscovered and undervalued skills. 

Still Elevated Inflation Keeps Pressure on Fed

Wages Are Soaring in US Cities with the Highest Inflation
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-28/wages-are-soaring-in-us-inflation-hotspots-from-miami-to-phoenix
 
U.S. Wages Rose Rapidly in Third Quarter, Keeping Pressure on Inflation
https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-inflation-wages-employment-cost-index-q3-2022-11666925660 

The Pandemic-Era Tech Boom is Over

Silicon Valley’s Unbridled Euphoria Runs into Economic Reality
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/29/technology/silicon-valley-economic-reality.html
 
The Big Tech boom is over and Wall Street knows it
https://www.vox.com/recode/2022/10/29/23429085/big-tech-boom-over-wall-street-stock-meta-amazon-google-alphabet-apple
Meta and the rest aren’t going away, but now they’re big boring companies. Maybe that’s not a terrible thing.

Tech Boom Ends as Companies from Amazon to Meta Adjust to Turbulent Times
https://www.wsj.com/articles/tech-boom-ends-as-companies-from-amazon-to-meta-adjust-to-turbulent-times-11666957789
 
Tech’s Biggest Companies Are Sending Worrying Signals About the Economy
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/26/technology/economy-facebook-google.html
 
Big Tech’s reign looks shaky as Facebook, Amazon disappoint investors
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/10/27/amazon-stock-plummets/
 
The biggest tech stocks have lost $3 trillion in market cap over the last year
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/27/the-biggest-tech-stocks-have-lost-3-trillion-in-market-cap-the-last-one-year.html
 
Chip Makers, Once in High Demand, Confront Sudden Challenges
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/27/technology/chip-makers-challenges.html 

Choice of College Major and Earnings

College majors affect more than just average earnings
https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/college-majors-affect-more-just-average-earnings
 
The Returns to College Major Choice: Average and Distributional Effects, Career Trajectories, and Earnings Variability
https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w30331/w30331.pdf
There is a growing body of research examining the labor market returns to college major, motivated by the large returns to skill in the labor market. Prior research has focused almost exclusively on mean effects and has paid little attention to the role of earnings growth and variability. Using linked administrative data from Texas on public K-12 students followed through college into the labor market, we find that the focus on mean differences mask four important features of the returns to college majors. First, majors are associated with varying earnings growth, which makes the returns sensitive to the experience distribution of the sample analyzed. Second, average earnings effects vary across workers; quantile treatment effect estimates show that mean effects mask considerable effect heterogeneity. Third, major choice affects earnings variability within workers over time. College major effects on earnings and variability are negatively correlated; high return majors also have more stable earnings. Finally, there is substantial variation in returns across specific majors within aggregate major groups and across institutions. This variation suggests that estimate of returns to college major are sensitive to how majors are aggregated and the composition of institutions in the sample.

US Wealth Boom Comes to an End

Once-in-a-Generation Wealth Boom Ends for America’s Middle Class
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-us-midterms-middle-class-wealth/ 

US Real GDP 2022-Q3 – Advance Estimate

How to make sense of the positive GDP report
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/10/27/23426848/gdp-report-economy-third-quarter

BEA – 2022 Q3 GDP Advance Estimate
https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2022-10/gdp3q22_adv.pdf
 
U.S. Economy Returned to Growth in Third Quarter
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/27/business/economy/us-economy-gdp.html
 
Housing Slump Takes Deepest Cut from US GDP Since End of 2007
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-27/rate-driven-slump-in-us-homebuilding-takes-deep-cut-from-gdp

International Trade and Europe

Europe racks up record trade deficit. Can it bounce back?
https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-trade-deficit-manufacturing-energy-prices/
It’s not just Europe’s energy balance that has plunged into the red. Its manufacturing trade surplus has nearly halved.
 
Olaf Scholz won’t dump China. Will Europe ever learn?
https://www.politico.eu/article/olaf-scholz-wont-dump-china-will-europe-ever-learn/
As Xi Jinping embarks on another five-year term, fears grow that Germany is repeating the mistake it made by getting too close to Russia. 

Germany allows China's Cosco to take 24.9% stake in largest port
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Germany-allows-China-s-Cosco-to-take-24.9-stake-in-largest-port 

Tech Sector Cools

Billion-dollar tech start-ups plummet as funding dries up
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/10/26/end-of-tech-unicorn-start-ups/
As interest rates spike and concerns over a global recession send shudders through the economy, tech companies big and small are slowing hiring and cutting new investments. 

Measuring the Inflation Rate

What’s the Inflation Rate? It’s a Surprisingly Hard Question to Answer
https://www.wsj.com/articles/whats-the-inflation-rate-its-a-surprisingly-hard-question-to-answer-11666789201 

Yield Curve Inversion and Recession Risk

Another Closely Watched Recession Alarm Is Ringing
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/26/business/yield-curve-inversion-recession.html
A so-called inverted yield curve between three-month and 10-year interest rates is considered by Wall Street as a reliable sign of an impending economic slump.

Fed’s Yield-Curve Barometer Starts Flashing Recession Risk
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-26/fed-s-yield-curve-barometer-starts-flashing-recession-risk

 
My take from July 25, 2022 - Is a Recession Inevitable?:
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3572084-is-a-recession-inevitable/
A few recession indicators with a strong historical track record are worth monitoring for incipient signs of a downturn. The 2-10-year segment of the U.S. Treasury yield curve has already inverted, and the 3m-10y segment of the yield curve is expected to invert in the not-too-distant future as the Federal Reserve continues its accelerated rate-hike cycle. 

Lags and Monetary Policy Transmission

Higher Interest Rates Can Take a Long Time to Bring Down Inflation
https://www.wsj.com/articles/higher-interest-rates-can-take-a-long-time-to-bring-down-inflation-11666517405
Tom Fairless notes:
They have raised interest rates this year at the fastest pace in decades. But those hikes work with what economists call “long and variable” lags so central banks might not know for years if they have tightened too much, or not enough.
Why the lag? Interest-rate changes filter through to inflation in a series of steps. The short-term lending rates controlled by central banks steer other borrowing costs in the economy, including deposit and lending rates for households and businesses, with a delay because loan contracts take time to change.
Higher borrowing costs and lower asset prices deter households and businesses from borrowing and investing, which weakens sales and the ability of companies to raise prices and workers to win raises. But it takes time to cancel projects or shed workers. Some consumers will follow through with long-planned purchases, such as a new car or kitchen. Businesses might not reduce their workforce until they feel sure that the outlook has changed. 

Cell Biology

Siddhartha Mukherjee Finds Medical Mystery — and Metaphor — in the Tiny Cell
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/24/books/review/the-song-of-the-cell-siddhartha-mukherjee.html 

‘The Song of the Cell’ Review: Fantastic Voyage Within
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-song-of-the-cell-book-review-fantastic-voyage-within-11666971992

Rishi Sunak - UK Finally Gets a Well-Qualified Prime Minister

UK Tories Are Finally ‘Ready for Rishi.’ Is It Too Late?

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-10-24/rishi-sunak-to-become-uk-prime-minister-is-it-too-late-for-the-tories
In Sunak, the country is getting a set of qualities it badly needs in a leader: competence, experience, credibility, integrity. These haven’t come as a package deal in a very long time.

Rishi Sunak to become first British PM of colour and also first Hindu at No 10
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/24/rishi-sunak-becomes-first-british-pm-of-colour-and-also-first-hindu-at-no-10
 
Rishi Sunak - Background (2020 piece):
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2020/03/crisis-chancellor-trying-save-britain-economic-cataclysm
“At Lincoln College, Oxford, he avoided student politics, preferring the investment society. Understanding how the economy works, understanding how businesses work, how to support them, how to help them grow – that intellectually I find incredibly fulfilling,” he has said. Having earned a First in politics, philosophy and economics, he spent three years as a junior analyst with the investment bank Goldman Sachs. He then obtained an MBA as a Fulbright Scholar at California’s Stanford University, joined a leading hedge fund called TCI, and left with several colleagues in 2009 to form another hedge fund firm, Theleme Partners, which was set up with an initial £700m in funding”.

Xi Jinping's Chinese Takeover

China’s Xi Jinping, Secure in Power, Faces Deepening Economic Challenges
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-xi-jinping-secure-in-power-faces-deepening-economic-challenges-11666622999

Xi Tightens His Grip on China at a Difficult Economic Moment
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/23/business/china-gdp-economy.html

China Has Entered ‘Maximum Xi’
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/24/china-maximum-xi-jinping-party-congress/

China’s Communist Party hands Xi an endless rule for flexing power
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/23/xi-jinping-leader-china-congress/  
 
Related:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/23/world/asia/xi-propaganda.html 

Inflation, Price Elasticity of Demand, and Corporate Profits

Companies Take Different Strategies to Navigate High Inflation
https://www.wsj.com/articles/companies-take-different-strategies-to-navigate-high-inflation-11666519382
Early earnings reports for the September quarter show that profit margins are feeling the squeeze as costs are rising and consumer appetite for some products has waned.
 
Finance Chiefs Switch Jobs, Retire as Companies Face Uncertainties
https://www.wsj.com/articles/finance-chiefs-switch-jobs-retire-as-companies-face-uncertainties-11666530002
 
Have profits peaked at American businesses?
https://www.economist.com/business/2022/10/09/have-profits-peaked-at-american-businesses
 
American consumers are becoming more price-sensitive again
https://www.economist.com/business/2022/10/13/american-consumers-are-becoming-more-price-sensitive-again
 
WSJ on price elasticity of demand:

Geopolitical Shocks and the World Economy

How Cold War II Could Turn into World War III by Niall Ferguson
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-10-23/cold-war-2-with-china-and-russia-is-becoming-ww3-niall-ferguson
History shows that nothing causes fiscal and monetary instability quite like multiple big, long conflicts. 

Government and the Macroeconomy

The Big Idea: Do governments really control their economies?
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/oct/17/the-big-idea-do-governments-really-control-their-economies

Federal Reserve - Risk of Overtightening?

The Fed, Staring Down Two Big Choices, Charts an Aggressive Path
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/18/business/economy/federal-reserve-inflation-november-meeting.html 

Related:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-set-to-raise-rates-by-0-75-point-and-debate-size-of-future-hikes-11666356757

Bond Market Sees No End to Worst Turbulence Since Credit Crash
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-22/bond-market-sees-no-end-to-worst-turbulence-since-credit-crash

Greg Mankiw’s take:
http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2022/10/why-i-fear-fed-may-be-overdoing-it.html

My take:

Will financial stability concerns derail the Fed’s inflation fight?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3691022-will-financial-stability-concerns-derail-the-feds-inflation-fight/

Impact of the Strong Dollar

Transatlantic travel soars as Americans make most of strong dollar
https://www.ft.com/content/47faa133-974b-4d83-953b-95fd637a4bb9

The World’s Oil Buyers Are Being Crushed by a Surging Dollar
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-22/the-world-s-oil-buyers-are-being-crushed-by-a-surging-dollar
 
Related:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/dangers-strong-dollar-countries-should-diversify-reserve-currencies 

India's Big Bet on Green Energy

Will India become a green superpower?
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2022/10/20/will-india-become-a-green-superpower 

A tale of two climate policies: India’s UN commitments aim low, but its national policies are ambitious – here’s why that matters
https://theconversation.com/a-tale-of-two-climate-policies-indias-un-commitments-aim-low-but-its-national-policies-are-ambitious-heres-why-that-matters-188865 

Related:

India, a Dairy Titan, Studies How to Keep Milk Flowing in a Hotter World
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/24/world/asia/india-climate-change-milk-prices.html
As rising prices draw headlines, Indian scientists are getting creative in an effort to help producers, and animals, adapt. 

The Florida Boom - Past and Present

Why so many people have moved to Florida – and into harm’s way

https://theconversation.com/why-so-many-people-have-moved-to-florida-and-into-harms-way-191733 

Florida (Un)Chained
https://www.nber.org/papers/w30914

Bubble in the Sun: The Florida Boom of the 1920s and How It Brought on the Great Depression

Review: Florida in the 1920s: Fun, sun and a looming financial disaster

Economics of the US Lottery System

What We’ve Lost Playing the Lottery
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/10/24/what-weve-lost-playing-the-lottery
The games are a bonanza for the companies that states hire to administer them. But what about the rest of us? 

Preparing for the Next Recession

What do you want for the holidays? How about a recession, CEOs say
https://fortune.com/2022/10/16/recession-forecast-america-ceo-survey-economy-holidays/

Economists Now Expect a Recession, Job Losses by Next Year

https://www.wsj.com/articles/economists-now-expect-a-recession-job-losses-by-next-year-11665859869

Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/forecast-for-us-recession-within-year-hits-100-in-blow-to-biden

As recession fears rise, Washington begins to weigh how to respond
https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/10/20/recession-inflation-white-house-fed/

After U.K. Market Blowout, American Officials Ask: Could It Happen Here?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/19/business/economy/uk-united-states-markets.html

Janet Yellen’s Learning Curve
https://www.wsj.com/articles/janet-yellens-learning-curve-11666364190
Looking beyond her rocky start, the Treasury Secretary reflects on inflation and the cognitive biases that affect policy makers and markets.

My earlier take:

Is a recession coming in the next 12 to 18 months? BY VIVEKANAND JAYAKUMAR | The Hill, 05/11/22
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3484631-is-a-recession-coming-in-the-next-12-to-18-months/
Is a recession inevitable? BY VIVEKANAND JAYAKUMAR | The Hill, 07/25/22
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3572084-is-a-recession-inevitable/ 

BOJ and Yen Weakness

Why Japan Stands Virtually Alone in Keeping Interest Rates Ultralow
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/21/business/japan-interest-rates.html
 
Time to Believe Japan Is Accepting a Weak Yen
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/time-to-believe-japan-is-accepting-a-weak-yen/2022/10/20/d2c440dc-50d4-11ed-ada8-04e6e6bf8b19_story.html 

The Rise and Fall of Liz Truss

After a Storm, Britain’s Economy Finds Itself Rudderless
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/21/business/uk-economy-liz-truss.html

Truss implosion shows big change in financial climate
https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/10/20/financial-markets-united-kingdom-interest-rates/

Liz Truss joins ranks of shortest-serving world leaders
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/20/liz-truss-joins-ranks-of-shortest-serving-world-leaders
Liz Truss's fall was brutal – but inevitable
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/20/liz-trusss-fall-brutal-inevitable/
Liz Truss Believed in Markets, but the Markets Did Not Believe in Her
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/19/opinion/liz-truss-kwasi-kwarteng-uk.html
 
 
Will the UK’s economic gamble pay off? BY VIVEKANAND JAYAKUMAR | The Hill, 09/28/22
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3664758-will-the-uks-economic-gamble-pay-off/
Initial reaction from the bond and currency markets was dramatic and demonstrated a stunning lack of confidence in the fiscal agenda of Prime Minister Liz Truss. Investors are rightly concerned about the impact of the fiscal largess on the country’s public finances.
Unfunded tax cuts and substantial energy subsidies will also act to boost aggregate demand even as the Bank of England is attempting to curtail spending to ease inflationary pressures. The disconnect between fiscal and monetary policy is likely to add to already heightened levels of economic uncertainty and complicate the ongoing battle against high inflation. …
Since 2008, rising income/wealth inequality, economic and policy uncertainty, and subdued expectations regarding future aggregate demand growth have all contributed to low levels of actual and desired investment. This has contributed to chronically low productivity, which in turn has limited the actual and potential growth rate of the UK economy.
Instead of relying on tax cuts, the UK economy would be better served if the Liz Truss-led government undertook structural reforms that were aimed at boosting productivity and enhancing the potential growth rate of the British economy. 

Macro Concerns

After U.K. Market Blowout, American Officials Ask: Could It Happen Here?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/19/business/economy/market-meltdown-uk-united-states.html
 
Bread Prices Skyrocket as Inflation Grips Europe
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/19/business/europe-food-prices-inflation.html

Germany got rich on exports and cheap Russian gas. Now, it’s in trouble.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/14/germany-economy-recession-energy-exports/

Are Prices Too High? Consumers Are Starting to Think So
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/are-prices-too-high-consumers-are-starting-to-think-so/2022/10/18/64b0c4d8-4ed8-11ed-ada8-04e6e6bf8b19_story.html
 
The Fed Is Giving Americans a Harsh Lesson in Lag Time
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/the-fed-is-giving-americans-aharsh-lesson-in-lag-time/2022/10/18/21b42eb2-4ed4-11ed-ada8-04e6e6bf8b19_story.html 

My take:

Will financial stability concerns derail the Fed’s inflation fight?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3691022-will-financial-stability-concerns-derail-the-feds-inflation-fight/

Will the UK's Economic Gamble Pay Off?

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3664758-will-the-uks-economic-gamble-pay-off/

Potential Output and Monetary Policy

Three Hidden Words from Fed Insiders Point to Much Higher Rates
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-19/fed-staff-rethinks-economy-s-speed-limit-portending-more-hikes
Craig Torres notes:
Tucked within 12 dense pages describing the Fed’s September policy meeting last week was a statement concerning a seemingly innocuous yet vital estimate that the staff use as a building block for internal economic forecasts.
Their gauge of US potential output was “revised down significantly,” the minutes showed, due to disappointing productivity growth and slow gains in labor force participation.
Potential gross domestic product is essentially an estimate of how fast the economy can run without breaking a sweat in the form of tightening resources and higher inflation. The new estimate was not disclosed -- nor was the prior one.
Even so, “the policy implication is significant,” said Anna Wong, Bloomberg chief US economist. “Lower potential growth means the economy has been more overheated last year and this year than realized, and it will take more rate hikes or a longer period of below-trend growth to close the output gap,” said Wong, a former Fed economist.
 
EARLY WARNING: 
The Fed’s risky quest for maximum employment by VIVEKANAND JAYAKUMAR | The Hill, 08/17/21
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/568134-the-feds-risky-quest-for-maximum-employment/
In their quest for a full labor market recovery that includes a boost in labor force participation of marginalized groups, central bankers are well-advised to be cognizant of potential challenges in determining full-employment levels in an economy that is undergoing significant structural shifts, many of which were instigated by the pandemic shock. There are two related questions confronting Fed officials at present. How much labor market slack still remains? Are pre-pandemic levels for key labor market metrics attainable without creating significant inflationary pressures?...
The extent of labor market slack may therefore be overstated. Many of the existing labor market frictions are going to take some time to play out. Consequently, the Fed faces the risk of making a serious error on the inflation front by continuing to stick with ultra-accommodative monetary policies. Upward pricing pressures are persisting as underlying demand remains robust even in the face of widespread supply constraints.
The Fed’s quest for maximum employment may prove to be quixotic if it sticks to the unrealistic goal of returning the labor market to a state prevalent just prior to the pandemic shock. 

Are We Done with Covid-19?

 Immune-evading omicron variants are popping up all over the world
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/10/18/covid-variants-xbb-bq1-bq11/

Globalization and US Food Production

Financial Stability versus Price Stability

MY TAKE:
Will financial stability concerns derail the Fed’s inflation fight?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3691022-will-financial-stability-concerns-derail-the-feds-inflation-fight/
Should the Fed stay the course and prioritize the battle against unacceptably high inflation? Or should it heed the calls for a policy recalibration in light of growing fears that something might break and push us into a deep recession?

The Fed, Staring Down Two Big Choices, Charts an Aggressive Path
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/18/business/economy/federal-reserve-inflation-november-meeting.html

Recession Ahead

Economists Now Expect a Recession, Job Losses by Next Year

https://www.wsj.com/articles/economists-now-expect-a-recession-job-losses-by-next-year-11665859869

Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/forecast-for-us-recession-within-year-hits-100-in-blow-to-biden

 
My earlier take:
Is a recession coming in the next 12 to 18 months? BY VIVEKANAND JAYAKUMAR | The Hill, 05/11/22
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3484631-is-a-recession-coming-in-the-next-12-to-18-months/
Is a recession inevitable? BY VIVEKANAND JAYAKUMAR | The Hill, 07/25/22
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3572084-is-a-recession-inevitable/ 

Philosophy and the Midlife Crisis

Trade Wars and Geopolitical Rivalries

Biden’s ‘Made in America’ Policies Anger Key Allies
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/14/us/politics/biden-trade-policy-asia-europe.html
 
When Trade Becomes a Weapon – Paul Krugman
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/13/opinion/china-tech-trade-biden.html
 
Weaponized Interdependence: How Global Economic Networks Shape State Coercion
https://www.lawfareblog.com/introducing-new-paper-weaponized-interdependence
 
Is the current era of globalization coming to an end? BY VIVEKANAND JAYAKUMAR | The Hill - 04/11/22
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3263766-is-the-current-era-of-globalization-coming-to-an-end/ 

Labor Substituting Technology

Meet the Army of Robots Coming to Fill in for Scarce Workers
https://www.wsj.com/articles/meet-the-army-of-robots-coming-to-fill-in-for-scarce-workers-11665806451
Robots are spreading at a record pace, from their traditional strongholds like making automobiles into nearly every other human endeavor 

Getting into Oxbridge

The schools that won the highest number of Oxbridge (Oxford and Cambridge) offers
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education-and-careers/schools-colleges-top-10-oxford-cambridge-oxbridge-university-students/ 

Growing Backlash Against Rental Inflation

The Rent Revolution Is Coming
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/15/business/economy/rent-tenant-activism.html
For the 44 million households who rent a home or apartment in the U.S., inflation keeps pushing costs higher and higher. Anger is rising too. It could be a breaking point. 

Market Manipulation in the Age of DeFi

DeFi Discovers New Market Manipulations
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-10-12/defi-discovers-new-market-manipulations 

Florida Real Estate After Hurricane Ian

Why Ian May Push Florida Real Estate Out of Reach for All but the Super Rich
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/13/climate/florida-real-estate-hurricane-ian.html
 
After Hurricane Ian, Build Back Different
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-10-11/after-hurricane-ian-build-back-different 

Care Work

Care work is in crisis. That’s a disaster for the rest of the economy.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/10/13/child-care-elder-care-economy/ 

Interest Payments on Government Debt

With rising rates and rising debt, the taxpayer bill is finally coming due
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/10/13/debt-interest-rates/

UK in Turmoil

Liz Truss’s Britain Is a Morbid Symptom of the World’s New Era
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/07/liz-trusss-britain-economic-disaster-global-crisis/

Liz Truss sacks Kwasi Kwarteng ahead of corporation tax U-turn
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/14/liz-truss-press-conference-u-turn-corporation-tax-kwasi-kwarteng
 
The shattered Tories may yet face a fate even worse than political death
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/13/shattered-tories-may-yet-face-fate-even-worse-political-death/
 
Andrew Bailey, the Bank of England chief, is trying to calm markets, wrestle inflation and maintain the bank’s credibility amid Britain’s financial storm.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/13/business/bank-of-england-andrew-bailey.html

 
The British economy is sick and declining, but the PM’s medicine only made the patient worse
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/14/british-economy-sick-declining-pms-medicine-made-patient-worse/

MY TAKE: Will the UK's Economic Gamble Pay Off?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3664758-will-the-uks-economic-gamble-pay-off/

US Inflation Remains Stubbornly High

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – SEPTEMBER 2022
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
 
Core US Inflation Rises to 40-Year High, Securing Big Fed Hike
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-13/core-us-inflation-rises-to-40-year-high-securing-big-fed-hike

Why the Fed must double down against inflation
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/10/13/federal-reserve-tightening-fights-inflation/

Related:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/10/13/fed-inflation-september-cpi/ 

American Universities are Losing Their Edge

U.S. Slips in Global Ranking
https://www.insidehighered.com/views/2022/10/12/us-slips-global-ranking-opinion
 
World University Rankings 2023
https://www.timeshighereducation.com/world-university-rankings/2023/world-ranking
 
Has Higher Education in the United States Lost Its Way?
https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/has-higher-education-in-the-united-states-lost-its-way/
Wendy Fischman and Howard Gardner note:
“We also see other challenges for students, mainly the preoccupation with achieving “external measures of success” (grades, acceptances, jobs) over learning. In other words, students feel it is more important to get an A or to build their resume to get a particular job than it is to be exposed to new, different, or challenging content material — or even to do their own work (cheating is rampant on the college campus and by all accounts has intensified post-COVID because of online tests and exams).
This “uber transactionality” has been instilled in students early on their education. Therefore, some of the biggest challenges colleges face is not with just college itself, but also with the high schools and parents where these students come from.
In terms of the institution, challenges include: misalignment between faculty and administrators and the “customer,” prioritizing the mission of higher education (and not the fancy buildings or athletic departments on campus), and justifying the value of higher education to students and their parents who worry about their “return on investment” (the number of college students is declining, as is the number of male students)”. 

My take (from Jan 2022): Is the US higher education bubble about to burst?
https://thehill.com/opinion/education/590971-will-the-us-higher-education-bubble-finally-burst/ 

The Meaning of Work

Why We Work - A review of The Story of Work: A New History of Humankind
https://www.milkenreview.org/articles/why-we-work 

Labor Hoarding and Labor Productivity

Companies Are Hoarding Workers. That Could Be Good News for the Economy.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/12/business/economy/companies-hoarding-workers.html 

Labor Market Strength Is Also a Sign of Dysfunction
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-10-10/labor-market-strength-is-also-a-sign-of-dysfunction
Job-hopping and rapid expansion has burdened businesses with high turnover and a poorly trained, overstressed workforce, which is holding back productivity. 

Related:

Why Are Companies Still Hiring When GDP Is Shrinking?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/labor-market-layoffs-inflation-recession-11664462809
The puzzling disconnect between production and employment
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3650164-the-puzzling-disconnect-between-production-and-employment/ 

Bernanke's Term at the Fed

Ben Bernanke Wins a Nobel, in Theory
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ben-bernanke-wins-a-nobel-in-theory-11665442267
An old joke has it that economists like to grouse that something may work in practice but does it work in theory? That comes to mind with the news that former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is sharing this year’s Nobel prize in economics for his research into financial crises. His insights worked in theory but not in practice. 

Even as a Nobel Laureate, Ben Bernanke Still Divides Economists
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-11/ben-bernanke-s-nobel-prize-win-divides-economists

Related:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-10-11/nobel-winner-bernanke-and-dimon-command-attention-as-crisis-fears-build-again

Food Inflation

 

Why food keeps getting more expensive
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/10/13/23402361/inflation-food-cpi-prices 

Consequences of Fed's Policy Errors

The Federal Reserve Owes the World a Mea Culpa
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-10-10/the-federal-reserve-owes-the-world-a-mea-culpa
The US central bank can’t ease the international repercussions of its rapid monetary tightening, but it can and should own up to its mistakes.
 
If You Think US Pensions Are Safe, Just Wait
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-10-10/will-us-pensions-follow-the-uk-into-market-turmoil
The US economy has been built around low interest rates. As rates rise, so will the fallout. 

Biden should act now on the wrecking-ball dollar
https://www.ft.com/content/38ca6bdd-068e-4fe2-a684-484a5725ad8d
Though Fed policies are pushing up the dollar, it is now seriously overvalued, fuelled by high speculative positions, and co-ordinated intervention, which would be led by the US Treasury, would come as a shock.

High Cost of US Healthcare - Bad Incentives and Poorly Designed Policies

How a Hospital Chain Used a Poor Neighborhood to Turn Huge Profits.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/24/health/bon-secours-mercy-health-profit-poor-neighborhood.html
The secret to its success lies with a federal program that allows clinics in impoverished neighborhoods to buy prescription drugs at steep discounts, charge insurers full price and pocket the difference.

‘The Cash Monster Was Insatiable’: Insurers Made Billions from Medicare
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/08/upshot/medicare-advantage-fraud-allegations.html 

2022 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2022 was awarded to Ben S. Bernanke, Douglas W. Diamond, and Philip H. Dybvig "for research on banks and financial crises".

Banking crisis breakthroughs win Nobel economics prize for Bernanke, Diamond, Dybvig
https://www.reuters.com/world/nobel-prize-economics-goes-bernanke-diamond-dybvig-research-financial-crises-2022-10-10/
Related:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-10/bernanke-shares-nobel-prize-in-economics-with-diamond-dybvig

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2022
https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2022/10/press-economicsciencesprize2022.pdf
Popular science background: The laureates explained the central role of banks in financial crises
https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2022/10/popular-economicsciencesprize2022.pdf
Scientific Background: Financial intermediation and the economy
https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2022/10/advanced-economicsciencesprize2022.pdf 

Hurricane Ian’s High Death Toll

Hurricane Ian’s exceptional death toll, explained
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/23389508/hurricane-ian-death-toll-storm-florida-landfall-climate 

Skilled versus Unskilled: The Case for Selective Immigration Policies

Why Skills-Based Immigration Is the Best Option for America
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/09/18/why-skills-based-immigration-is-the-best-option-for-america/
Reihan Salam, President of the Manhattan Institute, notes:
Given that Abramitzky and Boustan acknowledge that “open borders” is a political nonstarter, a more selective, skills-based immigration system would—by their own logic—prove at least as beneficial as a skills-blind approach, if not considerably more so, and over a much shorter time horizon. In an age of economic volatility and intense political dissension over migration, that is no small thing. Virtually all of the world’s market democracies have moved toward points-based systems that select migrants on the basis of language proficiency, educational credentials, employment offers, and other characteristics that predict labor market success and rapid integration, and there is a reason for that.
Destination countries that most closely adhere to this script, most notably Canada and Australia, where it was pioneered, have admitted significantly larger immigrant inflows relative to their smaller populations than the United States while eliciting significantly less backlash, a lesson that American immigration partisans would do well to heed. 

Biden’s generous immigration policies could turn out to backfire

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/biden-wants-to-reform-immigration-trumps-legacy-is-in-the-way/2021/03/11/ded049ac-82a9-11eb-81db-b02f0398f49a_story.html 

Refugees Shouldn't Monopolize the Immigration Debate
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-12-26/refugees-shouldn-t-monopolize-biden-s-immigration-policy 

College-Educated Immigrants Bolster U.S. Productivity
https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_brief/2021/eb_21-08
“The United States is the largest destination in the world for college-educated immigrants, but their path to employment in this country has become increasingly difficult during the past decade, a condition that can hinder productivity growth. This brief discusses the main contributions that college-educated immigrants make to U.S. productivity growth, such as providing scarce skills that supplement and complement those of native workers, contributing disproportionately to innovation and promoting job creation in the United States by foreign-based multinational corporations”.
 
Unauthorized Immigration: Evaluating the Effects and Policy Responses
https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/richmondfedorg/publications/research/economic_brief/2018/pdf/eb_18-01.pdf
Immigration has been the subject of intense debate recently in the United States and in Europe. Economists have studied unauthorized immigration to better understand what motivates immigrants to move and what effects they have on domestic workers and the domestic economy. Incorporating this research into a model suggests that centralized enforcement of immigration policies may be more effective than a decentralized approach.

The Surprising Economics of Latino Immigration

http://www.milkenreview.org/articles/the-surprising-economics-of-latino-immigration

RELATED:
Talented Immigrants Make the U.S. Richer, Not Poorer

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-01-23/u-s-immigration-screens-for-education-talent-and-ambition

Why Are Some Immigrant Groups More Successful than Others?

https://www.nber.org/papers/w23548

Give Me Your Tired, Your Poor, Your High-Skilled Labor: H-1B Lottery Outcomes and Entrepreneurial Success

https://www.nber.org/papers/w26392

High-skilled immigration and the growing concentration of US innovation

https://voxeu.org/article/high-skilled-immigration-and-growing-concentration-us-innovation

Skilled Immigrants and Innovation

https://theconversation.com/hiring-highly-educated-immigrants-leads-to-more-innovation-and-better-products-100087