A Different Take on the U.S. Economy: Maybe It
Isn’t Really Shrinking
https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-different-take-on-the-u-s-economy-maybe-it-isnt-really-shrinking-11661696041
https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-different-take-on-the-u-s-economy-maybe-it-isnt-really-shrinking-11661696041
Key US Growth Measures Diverge, Complicating
Recession Debate
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-25/key-us-growth-measures-diverge-complicating-recession-debate
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-25/key-us-growth-measures-diverge-complicating-recession-debate
Is a Recession Inevitable? BY VIVEKANAND
JAYAKUMAR | The Hill, 07/25/22
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3572084-is-a-recession-inevitable/
[Preliminary data] indicates that the US experienced two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth during the first half of 2022. However, it is worth noting that two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, while often a useful rule-of-thumb, is not the official definition of a recession in the US.
[At present, there is a] larger-than-normal gap between GDP and GDI data for 2022Q1 – GDI was +1.8% while GDP was -1.6% (on an annualized basis). GDI is often assumed to be a better real-time indicator of economic conditions, and, in the past, the statistical discrepancy between the two has typically been resolved with GDP getting revised to match GDI. Labor market strength in early 2022 also lends credence to the notion that GDI better reflects underlying economic conditions.
[Preliminary data] indicates that the US experienced two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth during the first half of 2022. However, it is worth noting that two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, while often a useful rule-of-thumb, is not the official definition of a recession in the US.
[At present, there is a] larger-than-normal gap between GDP and GDI data for 2022Q1 – GDI was +1.8% while GDP was -1.6% (on an annualized basis). GDI is often assumed to be a better real-time indicator of economic conditions, and, in the past, the statistical discrepancy between the two has typically been resolved with GDP getting revised to match GDI. Labor market strength in early 2022 also lends credence to the notion that GDI better reflects underlying economic conditions.
Job Market Stronger Than Previously Reported, Data Show
https://www.wsj.com/articles/job-market-stronger-than-previously-reported-data-show-11661364957
https://www.wsj.com/articles/job-market-stronger-than-previously-reported-data-show-11661364957
