Ukraine Crisis: Does the West Have an Endgame?

The War in Ukraine May Be Impossible to Stop. And the U.S. Deserves Much of the Blame.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/31/opinion/us-ukraine-putin-war.html

The War Is Getting More Dangerous for America, and Biden Knows It
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/06/opinion/biden-ukraine-leaks.html

A Message to the Biden Team on Ukraine: Talk Less
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/03/opinion/biden-ukraine.html
Tom Friedman notes:
“And let’s be careful not to raise Ukrainian expectations too high. Small countries that suddenly get the backing of big powers can get intoxicated. Many things have changed about Ukraine since the end of the Cold War — except one: its geography. It is still, and it will always be, a relatively small nation on Russia’s border. It is going to have to make some hard compromises before this conflict is over. Let’s not make it even harder for it by adding unrealistic goals”.

US Higher Education System – In Need of Reform

How to Really Fix Higher Ed
Ben Sasse, a former university president and the United States senator from Nebraska, notes:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/student-loans-forgiveness-higher-ed/639438/
Higher-education leaders want greater flexibility to experiment and grow. Much of the monotony in higher education is a result of the accreditation process. Accreditation should protect students from snake-oil salesmen, but unfortunately it has become its own racket. Existing schools try to lock out potential competitors. Timidity, ideological homogeneity, and red tape are all structurally encouraged by the accreditation processes. We must demand radical reform—or even the full breakup of the system. Regional agencies, private associations, and approaches unburdened by red tape can measure quality and protect student interests—so long as radical transparency is required. 

Corporate Profits - Uncertain Outlook

After a Bumper 2021, Companies Might Struggle to Increase Profits
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/31/business/stock-market-company-profits.html
 
Workers’ Share of Economic Pie Isn’t Growing
https://www.wsj.com/articles/workers-share-of-economic-pie-isnt-growing-11653825601 

Stagflationary Concerns

Eurozone inflation hits its highest level since the creation of the euro in 1999.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/31/business/eurozone-inflation.html
 
U.S. policymakers misjudged inflation threat until it was too late
https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/05/31/inflation-economy-timeline/
 
Can anything save the U.S. economy from a recession?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/05/31/can-us-economy-avoid-recession-amid-inflation/
 
Consumers are shifting their spending from goods to services
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/05/27/consumer-spending-goods-services/ 

State Capacity and Industrial Policy

What America Needs Is a Liberalism That Builds
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/29/opinion/biden-liberalism-infrastructure-building.html
 
State capacity: what is it, how we lost it, and how to get it back
https://www.niskanencenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/brinkpaper.pdf 

Albert Camus – The Human Crisis

The philosopher who resisted despair
https://www.vox.com/features/22989761/vox-conversations-albert-camus-the-philosophers
Albert Camus and the search for solace in a cruel age.
 
The Human Crisis by Albert Camus
https://youtu.be/aaFZJ_ymueA 

The Future of Cities

Can America’s Cities Make a Post-Pandemic Comeback?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/big-cities-will-suffer-if-workers-stay-home-remote-labor-young-old-finance-college-11653664888
America’s leading economist of urban life says a return to the workplace is crucial, especially for the young. 

Related:

Times Square at Its Overcrowded, Dizzying Worst Is Exactly What N.Y.C. Needs
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/28/business/times-square-new-york-pandemic.html

Liverpool's Luis Díaz

The Liverpool Star Who Came Out of Nowhere
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/27/sports/soccer/luis-diaz-liverpool-champions-league.html
Luis Díaz has become a hero in only five months in England. But his story resonates not because he made it, but because so many others like him never get the chance. 

Resilient Consumers

Epic goods-buying spree wanes, as consumers ramp up services spending
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/05/27/consumer-spending-goods-services/
 
Did US Consumer Spending Just Hit Its Peak?
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-27/did-us-consumer-spending-just-hit-its-peak
 
Americans Keep Spending Even as Inflation Erodes Buying Power
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/27/business/economy/pce-inflation-april.html
 
Shoppers Are Fretting. Stores Are Listening.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/shoppers-are-fretting-stores-are-listening-11653710450
 
Households Boosted Spending in April but Drew Heavily on Savings
https://www.wsj.com/articles/consumer-spending-personal-income-april-2022-11653597309 

Has the US Housing Market Peaked?

The housing market just slid into a full-blown correction, says top economist Mark Zandi
https://fortune.com/2022/05/27/housing-market-correction-peak-mark-zandi-moodys-home-prices-outlook/
The housing market boom has at least another year to run, Zillow economists predict
https://fortune.com/2022/05/24/housing-market-how-long-will-boom-last-home-prices-projection-zillow/
The odds of a home price correction just spiked—this interactive chart shows if your local housing market is at risk
https://fortune.com/2022/05/20/these-regional-housing-markets-could-soon-see-home-prices-drop/

US Home Sellers Cutting Prices Hits Highest Level Since 2019
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-26/more-us-home-sellers-cutting-prices-than-any-time-since-2019
The U.S. Housing Market Has Peaked
https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/05/housing-market-slowing-down-recession/629901/
Wall Street’s housing grab continues
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/05/25/wall-streets-housing-grab-continues 

Pandemic Housing Boom Hits a Wall with US Buyers Priced Out

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-24/housing-market-shows-cooling-signs-after-interest-rate-hike
Home values in the Sun Belt boomtowns spiked, but now rising mortgage rates, inflation, and recession fears are starting to pinch. 

South Florida Leads Ranking of Most Overvalued Rental Markets

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-09/south-florida-leads-ranking-of-most-overvalued-rental-markets 

Fed Searches for the Magic Number to Cool a Red-Hot U.S. Housing Market
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fed-searches-for-the-magic-number-to-cool-a-red-hot-u-s-housing-market-11653402996

Housing Defies Fed’s Campaign to Control Inflation
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-14/housing-defies-fed-s-campaign-to-control-inflation 

Wages Can’t Keep Up with Spike in Housing Prices
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/05/realestate/housing-prices-affordability.html

How Do Higher Interest Rates Bring Down Inflation?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/14/business/inflation-interest-rates.html

My take: Is the US housing market headed for a price correction?

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3466071-is-the-us-housing-market-headed-for-a-price-correction/ 

Related:

When the Best Available Home Is the One You Already Have

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/27/upshot/housing-market-slow-moving.html
The housing market has altered the math of moving for nearly everyone. 

Recession Indicators

 

My Take: Where Are Interest Rates Headed?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3500474-where-are-interest-rates-headed/

MY TAKE: Is a recession coming in the next 12 to 18 months?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3484631-is-a-recession-coming-in-the-next-12-to-18-months/ 

U.S. may be barreling toward recession in next year, more experts say
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/05/19/recession-economy-markets/

Where do we go from here: Inflation or recession?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/05/29/fed-weighs-inflation-recession-volcker-way/

A top Morgan Stanley strategist thinks the risk of a recession has gone up ‘materially’ and stocks could fall another 15%
https://fortune.com/2022/05/16/how-low-will-stocks-go-recession-risk-outlook-morgan-stanley-bear-market/

While the Fed’s inflation fight could throw the economy into reverse, a mild slowdown now might help avoid a deeper downturn later.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-12/a-recession-won-t-be-as-scary-as-it-sounds

The Crypto Crash Is Just the Start
https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/05/worrying-signs-economy-inflation-crypto/629848/
Is the U.S. destined to have a recession in 2022?

Crypto Endorsers - Conflict of Interest

How Influencers Hype Crypto, Without Disclosing Their Financial Ties
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/27/technology/crypto-influencers.html
Logan Paul, Paul Pierce and other celebrities have promoted risky and obscure digital currencies, sometimes failing to mention their conflicts of interest.

The Rise and Fall of Cathie Wood

The Rise and Fall of Wall Street’s Most Controversial Investor
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/05/the-rise-and-fall-of-cathie-wood.html

A piece from August 2021:

God, Money, YOLO: How Cathie Wood Found Her Flock
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/22/business/cathie-wood-ark-stocks.html
“She may also be a victim of her own success. Ark has far more money to invest than it did just 18 months ago, and spending it poses a challenge. The kind of technology stocks the company has traditionally favored are small and lightly traded, so big bets can move their prices sharply. Ark risks bidding the price up when it buys, then taking a big hit when it sells because such stocks often have few buyers.
Also, many of the stocks that Ms. Wood buys appear highly correlated — they go up together — which worked out well last year. But they also go down together, exposing her to crushing losses when market conditions turn against her”. 

China and the West

China is trying to protect its economy from Western pressure
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2022/05/26/china-is-trying-to-protect-its-economy-from-western-pressure
 
How economic interdependence fosters alliances and democracy
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/05/25/how-economic-interdependence-fosters-alliances-and-democracy 

Western Historians Continue to Distort Asian/Indian History

The Truth About Aurangzeb: Was the Mughal emperor a fanatic?
https://openthemagazine.com/essay/the-truth-about-aurangzeb/ 

Women’s Tennis Gets a Likable New Star

Iga Swiatek
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/05/25/iga-swiatek-french-open-favorite/
Swiatek (pronounced SCHVON-tek) burst to prominence by winning the 2020 French Open as an unseeded teen without conceding a set, toppling then No. 1 Simona Halep en route. She is also an avid reader (currently consumed with Yuval Noah Harari’s “21 Lessons for the 21st Century”); owner of a cat named Grappa; a fan of AC/DC, Pink Floyd and nearly all classic rock; a dabbler on the ukulele, a gift from the sports psychologist who travels with her; and a curious young woman who believes the richness of life lies beyond the bounds of a tennis court.
 
Iga Swiatek on meeting Rafael Nadal & being a role model
https://www.bbc.com/sport/tennis/60094123 

Islamic Rule Returns to Afghanistan

Taliban morality police tighten their grip on Afghan women
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/26/afghanistan-women-taliban-vice-virtue/ 

Is America Politically Broken?

The basic rules of American democracy provide a veto over national policy to a minority of the states.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2022/05/senate-state-bias-filibuster-blocking-gun-control-legislation/638425/

The Stupefying Tally of American Gun Violence
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/25/us/american-gun-violence.html

Americans Have More Guns Than Anywhere Else in the World and They Keep Buying More

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-25/how-many-guns-in-the-us-buying-spree-bolsters-lead-as-most-armed-country
US has 120.5 firearms per 100 residents, report finds

----

New York struggles with a sharp rise in violent crime amid COVID-19
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/new-york-struggles-with-a-sharp-rise-in-violent-crime-amid-covid-19
Related:
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-05-03/killings-in-la-on-pace-to-top-last-years-high
 
How the crime rate is preventing some US cities from the 'return to normal'
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2022/05/05/american-crime-rate-impact-pandemic-recovery/9591580002/

---- 

Why many experts say our immigration system is broken and what is being done to fix it
https://youtu.be/IJl2cM2y9a4 

Democratic states are extending welfare benefits to the undocumented
https://www.economist.com/united-states/2022/05/19/democratic-states-are-extending-welfare-benefits-to-the-undocumented
 

Illegal Immigration debate - Bush-Reagan 1980 primary debate (nothing much has changed in over 40-plus years):

https://youtu.be/6gYHMwEdvIk

Rate Hikes, Market Volatility and Recession Fears

My Take: Where Are Interest Rates Headed?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3500474-where-are-interest-rates-headed/
 
What Is the Fall in the Stock Market Telling Us?
https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/what-is-the-fall-in-the-stock-market-telling-us

Fed Saw Aggressive Hikes Providing Flexibility Later This Year
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-25/fed-saw-aggressive-hikes-providing-flexibility-later-this-year

Nations move to tackle inflation, increasing risk to global economy
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/05/13/federal-reserve-global-economy/

Jerome Powell’s Volcker Deficit
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/jerome-powell-paul-volcker-inflation-interest-rate-contrast-by-stephen-s-roach-2022-05

Measuring Inflation

Why Has the Inflation Calculation Changed Over Time?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/24/technology/inflation-measure-cpi-accuracy.html 

Related:
Ambrose, Brent W. and Coulson, N. Edward and Yoshida, Jiro, Housing Rents and Inflation Rates (January 31, 2022). Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2787193 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2787193

Evolution of the Bicycle

Harvard historian Jill Lepore’s latest New Yorker piece:
Bicycles Have Evolved. Have We?
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/05/30/bicycles-have-evolved-have-we-jody-rosen-two-wheels-good 

Technology, Productivity, and Long-Run Growth and Development

Why the Age of American Progress Ended
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2023/01/science-technology-vaccine-invention-history/672227/

Wealth of nations: Why some are rich, others are poor

https://theconversation.com/wealth-of-nations-why-some-are-rich-others-are-poor-and-what-it-means-for-future-prosperity-185116
Do we need a better understanding of 'progress'?
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20220615-do-we-need-a-better-understanding-of-progress
About 200 years ago, the world started getting rich. Why?
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/6/1/23138463/how-the-world-became-rich-industrial-revolution-koyama-rubin
Why Isn’t New Technology Making Us More Productive?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/24/business/technology-productivity-economy.html
The Highs and Lows of Productivity Growth
https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2020/august/highs-and-lows-productivity-growth/el2020-21.pdf
Science Is Getting Less Bang for Its Buck
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/11/diminishing-returns-science/575665/
Is the Rate of Scientific Progress Slowing Down?
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3822691
Can Silicon Valley still dominate global innovation? | The Economist
https://www.economist.com/business/can-silicon-valley-still-dominate-global-innovation/21808708

Stagnant Scientific Productivity Holding Back Growth
https://www.wsj.com/articles/stagnant-scientific-productivity-holding-back-growth-11668700829

How to escape scientific stagnation | The Economist
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/10/26/how-to-escape-scientific-stagnation
Has the ideas machine broken down? | The Economist
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2013/01/12/has-the-ideas-machine-broken-down

 
Here are posts on the same topic from years past:
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2012/09/the-long-run-growth-controversy.html
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2014/06/tech-progress-and-long-term-economic.html
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2016/01/robert-gordons-rise-and-fall-of.html
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2017/09/us-and-other-advanced-economies-slow.html
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2018/02/planet-money-on-productivity-paradox.html
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2019/08/pace-of-tech-progress-and-long-term.html 

End of Strategic Ambiguity on Taiwan

Biden’s Taiwan defense pledge inflames U.S.-China relations
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/23/bidens-taiwan-defense-pledge-inflames-u-s-china-relations-00034588 

Billionaires and Politics

The Perils of Plutocratic Pettiness
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/opinion/elon-musk-jeff-bezos-social-media.html 

Hong Kong’s Complex History

Dispossession and defiance: how Hong Kong’s struggle explains our world
https://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/2022/05/how-hong-kong-explains-our-world
Capitalism, like empire, has its core and peripheries, metropole and colonies. It thrives on inequality and strives to maintain an uneven structure. In a hilly city like Hong Kong, as Cheung points out, the class hierarchy can be literal: “the higher the altitude, the more expensive the apartments”. Both Lim and Cheung struggled with finding affordable housing in the city. The real issue is not how much land there is in Hong Kong but who owns it: the city’s real estate, as well as key sectors such as transportation and telecommunications, are controlled by a handful of family-owned conglomerates. The oligarchical system originated under British rule. Now Beijing relies on the tycoons to advance its agendas, and in turn provides policy conditions favourable to their businesses. As Hong Kong has transitioned from being a manufacturing-based economy, its government revenue has come to depend on selling and leasing land. The property market has become “too big to fail”. 

Data Nationalism

The Era of Borderless Data Is Ending
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/technology/data-privacy-laws.html
Nations are accelerating efforts to control data produced within their perimeters, disrupting the flow of what has become a kind of digital currency. 

The 1970s – The Bright Side

The 1970s Had a Big Bright Side, Too
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-23/from-intel-to-ben-jerry-s-the-1970s-had-a-big-bright-side-too 

America’s Broken Healthcare System

CBS 60 Minutes Report:
Life-saving generic drugs with low profit margins getting harder to procure
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/generic-drugs-pharmaceutical-companies-60-minutes-video-2022-05-22/ 

Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Challenges

WSJ Piece (MAY 22, 2022): Higher Rates Raise Risk of Future Fed Losses
https://www.wsj.com/articles/higher-rates-raise-risk-of-future-fed-losses-11653222600
Rising interest rates could one day lead the central bank to pay out more in interest than it earns, creating a political headache
 
My take (published in The Hill on April 19, 2022):
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3272668-is-4-percent-inflation-the-new-normal/
A second challenge facing the Fed involves its $9 trillion balance sheet. Unlike simplistic textbook narratives, the central bank no longer has the luxury of undertaking open market operations to shift its target for the federal funds rate (FFR). Instead, in the current ample reserves regime, the Fed utilizes two rate instruments – the interest on reserves (IOR) and the overnight reverse repurchase agreement rate (ONRRP) – to adjust its target policy rate. Essentially, raising the FFR target requires the Fed to also raise IOR and ONRRP.
If the yield curve were to invert, the Fed may encounter a balance sheet problem as it may be forced to pay out higher rates on bank reserves to large financial institutions even as it receives lower rates on its substantial holdings of long-dated U.S. Treasuries. This is certain to generate political backlash in Washington, D.C. 

Future Threats and Conflicts

A Whole Age of Warfare Sank with the Moskva
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/ukraine-russia-moskva-military-marine-corps/629930/
A fierce debate is raging within the U.S. Marine Corps about what comes next.
 
A Fight Over Taiwan Could Go Nuclear
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2022-05-20/fight-over-taiwan-could-go-nuclear
 
Forgetting the apocalypse: why our nuclear fears faded – and why that’s dangerous
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/12/forgetting-the-apocalypse-why-our-nuclear-fears-faded-and-why-thats-dangerous 

The second coming of Nato: The alliance has been revived – but it can’t save the West.
https://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/geopolitics/2022/05/the-second-coming-of-nato
Adam Tooze notes:
If the war drags on, with America providing substantial aid, but Russia proving able to stop Ukraine’s counteroffensives, does Europe want the equivalent of another Afghanistan on its doorstep – a decades-long conflict with a devastating humanitarian fallout? That might suit Washington, but can Europe live with it? The dialogues between Olaf Scholz, Macron and Moscow in recent weeks suggest that Paris and Berlin are still looking to offer Putin a way out. If the Ukraine crisis extends into the distant future, what will be the impact on the front-line states, above all Poland? If Afghanistan is the analogy, we should be concerned that eastern Europe does not suffer the fate of Pakistan, where America’s anti-Soviet campaign helped to strengthen the deep state and stoke popular radicalisation.

Good News: India’s TFR Drops Below Replacement Rate

India's fertility rate dips below replacement level: What does it mean?
https://www.business-standard.com/podcast/current-affairs/india-s-fertility-rate-dips-below-replacement-level-what-does-it-mean-122051800062_1.html 

US-China Trade War - Winners and Losers

Who Won the U.S.-China Trade War?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/who-won-the-u-s-china-trade-war-11653059611
Neither country got the concessions it sought, and both damaged their economies. The real beneficiaries? Vietnam and others who stepped into the breach. 

One tiny company is wrecking the American solar industry – why?
https://www.dw.com/en/one-tiny-company-is-wrecking-the-american-solar-industry-why/a-61846726
A small US solar panels manufacturer is pushing for high tariffs on imports. This threatens the Biden administration's climate goals and the industry as a whole.

Finding the Stock Market Bottom

Stock Market Bottom Remains Elusive Despite Deepening Decline
https://www.wsj.com/articles/stock-market-bottom-remains-elusive-despite-deepening-decline-11653141699 

Asian Foreign Policy Challenges

The Clash of Asia’s Titans
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-india-standoff-himalayan-border-strategic-mistake-by-brahma-chellaney-2022-05
Chinese President Xi Jinping has picked a border fight that he cannot win, and transformed a previously conciliatory India into a long-term foe. This amounts to an even bigger miscalculation than Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s failure to see it coming.

China's own hotheadedness reinforces Quad's strategic importance
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-s-own-hotheadedness-reinforces-Quad-s-strategic-importance

The Quad Needs a Harder Edge
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2022-05-19/quad-needs-harder-edge
 
What Biden’s approach to Asia misses
https://www.vox.com/23130583/biden-asia-china-foreign-policy 

How America Never Really Understood India
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/joe-biden-narendra-modi-us-india/629823/
Related:
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-19/how-india-can-end-dependence-on-russian-weapons
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-04/europe-is-growing-closer-to-india-despite-ukraine-war

Food and Energy Crisis

A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2022/05/19/a-world-grain-shortage-puts-tens-of-millions-at-risk 

Why Do We Swallow What Big Oil and the Green Movement Tell Us?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/17/opinion/russian-oil-green-energy.html 

Demise of Lehman Brothers

The Last of Lehman Brothers
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2022-lehman-brothers-collapse-plan-repay-after-bankruptcy/ 

Economics of College Football

The NCAA Goes After College Athletes’ NIL Money—Here are the Antitrust Implications for Workers and Consumers
https://www.promarket.org/2022/05/20/ncaa-goes-after-college-athletes-nil-antitrust/

The best part of college sports’ new world of player profits: Seeing which coaches hate each other
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/05/19/nick-saban-jimbo-fisher-nil/ 

Euro-Dollar Parity

A Weak Euro Heads to an Uncomfortable Milestone: Parity with the Dollar
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/20/business/economy/euro-dollar-usd.html 

History and International Affairs

America, China, Russia and the Avalanche of History
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-20/niall-ferguson-america-china-russia-and-the-avalanche-of-history

The Echoes of America’s Hypocrisy Abroad
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/20/philippines-marcos-election-us-support-dictators/

Global institutions have long relegated much of the world to second-class status.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/19/russia-ukraine-war-un-international-condemnation/

A Freudian Slip

Environmental Crisis in Australia

How climate is making Australia more unlivable
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-61432462 

Related:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/19/opinion/australia-election-scott-morrison-climate.html

Canada’s Housing Market Cools

One of the World’s Frothiest Housing Markets Turned into a Seller’s Headache Overnight
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-19/one-of-the-world-s-frothiest-housing-markets-turned-into-a-seller-s-headache-overnight 

Economics and Public Policy

The War on Economics
Many progressives view the dismal science as their adversary. Yet it has often proved to be a singularly powerful ally.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/05/23/the-war-on-economics-elizabeth-popp-berman-thinking-like-an-economist
Idrees Kahloon notes:
Economists aren’t oracles; all theories have to undergo refinement and reinvention. Measurements and modelling have their limits. But the tools of economics are what built the social-welfare state in the first place; we’ll need them if we want to build it back better. 

The Global Economic Consequences of Prolonging the Ukrainian Conflict

Economic Headwinds Mount as Leaders Weigh Costs of Confronting Russia
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/18/us/politics/russia-finance-ministers-economy.html

Poor Countries Face a Mounting Catastrophe Fueled by Inflation and Debt
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/17/business/inflation-developing-economies.html 

Inflation not Asia's only worry as growth risks intensify
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Inflation-not-Asia-s-only-worry-as-growth-risks-intensify

Social Unrest is Rising, Adding to Risks for Global Economy
https://blogs.imf.org/2022/05/20/social-unrest-is-rising-adding-to-risks-for-global-economy/

Rise and Fall of Venezuela

Things Are Never So Bad That They Can't Get Worse: Inside the Collapse of Venezuela
https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/book-review-things-are-never-so-bad-that-they-cant-get-worse/ 

Profit Margins Under Pressure

Target Plummets Most Since 1987 as Inflation Saps Retail Margins
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-18/target-cuts-profit-outlook-on-hit-from-unexpectedly-high-costs
 
Target Stock Dives After Earnings Miss by a Mile. What Went Wrong
https://www.barrons.com/articles/target-stock-price-earnings-inflation-51652801435 

America's Dysfunctional Politics

The Rotten Core of Our Political System
https://www.theatlantic.com/books/archive/2022/05/this-will-not-pass-book-review-democrats-republican-political-power/629895/ 

Global Economy - Long-Term Shifts

It’s Africa’s Century—for Better or Worse
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/13/africa-century-economic-growth/
Economic historian Adam Tooze notes:
In the coming decades, we face a revolutionary shift in the balance of world affairs—and it is likely not the one you are thinking of.
Since the 1990s, the idea that we might be entering an “Asian century” has preoccupied and disorientated the West. However, once we take in view the long sweep of history, the return of China and India to the center stage of world affairs is less a revolution than a restoration.
For most of the last 2,000 years, the great Chinese and Indian empires were the center of world trade and home to the most sophisticated civilizations. Their growing influence in the world today is the rectification of the anomaly that arose in the 1700s as a result of the yawning divergence in per capita income between “the West” and “the rest.” Successive industrial revolutions and waves of colonial conquest created a world in which economic and military power was radically misaligned with population. 

Remote Work and College Towns

Remote Working Boom Is Huge for College Towns Like Knoxville
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-18/remote-working-boom-is-huge-for-college-towns-like-knoxville 

Housing Demand and Remote Work
https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w30041/w30041.pdf

Geopolitics in Asia

Why China Is Paranoid About the Quad
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/17/india-china-quad-summit-modi-xi-biden/
Beijing has long lived with U.S. alliances in Asia, but a realigned India would change the game.
 
Across South Asia, U.S. and India Push Back Against China
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/06/us-india-china-sri-lanka-south-asia-geopolitics/
 
Trump and Biden Let Afghanistan Collapse
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/18/taliban-afghanistan-takeover-us-sigar-report/
The Taliban didn’t have to take over. But Washington made sure they would. 

Crypto Boosters in Trouble

How a Trash-Talking Crypto Bro Caused a $40 Billion Crash
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/18/technology/terra-luna-cryptocurrency-do-kwon.html

Related:

https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/crypto/terras-luna-crypto-crash-how-ust-broke-and-whats-next/

All Those Celebrities Pushing Crypto Are Not So Vocal Now
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/17/business/media/crypto-gwyneth-paltrow-matt-damon-reese-witherspoon.html 

How Gen Z is hooked on cryptocurrency and NFTs
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60566575
 
Crypto Meltdown Exposes Hollowness of its Libertarian Promise
https://www.wsj.com/articles/crypto-meltdown-exposes-hollowness-of-its-libertarian-promise-11652875201
Unable to displace the dollar, crypto became just another asset without traditional asset markets’ guardrails

What is the point of crypto?
https://www.vox.com/the-goods/23071245/bitcoin-price-crypto-ethereum-nfts-defi-stablecoin

Return of Business Travel

Business Travel Resumes, Though Not at Its Former Pace
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/15/business/business-travel.html
 
Business Travel Rebounds as Execs Choose (Real) Face Time Over Zoom
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-08/business-travel-up-as-people-skip-zoom-for-in-person-meetings 

Gun Violence - An Uniquely American Problem

America’s Gun Plague
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/buffalo-shooting-great-replacement-ideology/629870/
Hatred alone is not an American phenomenon—easy access to deadly weapons is. 

Stressed Drivers, Lots of Guns: An Explosion in Road Rage Shootings
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/12/us/road-rage-shootings-guns-texas.html
Dozens have been reported in Texas alone amid a pandemic surge in gun purchases and a country increasingly on edge. 

Modern Asian History – Readings

Underground Asia: Global Revolutionaries and the Assault on Empire by Tim Harper.
Review:
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/lsereviewofbooks/2022/01/04/book-review-underground-asia-global-revolutionaries-and-the-assault-on-empire-by-tim-harper/
 
Spies in Arabia: The Great War and the Cultural Foundations of Britain's Covert Empire in the Middle East
Review:
https://muse.jhu.edu/article/265085
 
Planning Democracy by Nikhil Menon
Review:
https://lifestyle.livemint.com/news/big-story/why-nehruvian-planning-failed-in-the-long-term-111651764186426.html 

Margins and Commodities Trading

How the war caused a commodity cash-call crunch
https://www.politico.eu/article/war-cause-commodity-cash-call-crunch-financial-regulation/
Clearinghouses are demanding higher margins as prices move against positions. 

The Legacy of 'Hillbilly Elegy'

How Hollywood and the Media Fueled the Political Rise of J.D. Vance
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/15/business/jd-vance-trump-hollywood.html
 
An Appalachian writer says Hillbilly Elegy played to bogus notions on the left and right about the impoverished region. The only thing that benefited was Vance’s political career.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/05/06/jd-vance-book-dangerous-00030374

Related:

The Multiverse Swallows Everything — Including Politics
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/05/13/multiverse-politics-00032277
The omnipresent sci-fi concept reflects a serious lack of real-life imagination.

Acquiring Wealth in America

The Rich Are Not Who We Think They Are. And Happiness Is Not What We Think It Is, Either.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/14/opinion/sunday/rich-happiness-big-data.html 

US Stock Market Enters a New Era

The Stock Market, After Soaring for Years, Returns to Earth
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/13/business/stock-market.html
The market has been producing double-digit returns for investors, even at moments of great national strife. But the party has ended and it may be a long time before it begins again. 

Investors Face a World Where Stocks No Longer Reign
https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-face-a-world-where-stocks-no-longer-reign-11652434225
The age-old mantra of ‘there is no alternative’ to stocks gets a stiff test as market losses mount, inflation accelerates and interest rates rise

NATO – A History Lesson

How Putin’s invasion returned Nato to the centre stage
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/may/05/nato-returns-to-centre-stage-ukraine-invasion-russia-putin 

The World Economy is in Trouble

European scramble for energy comes at Asia's expense
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/European-scramble-for-energy-comes-at-Asia-s-expense
EU moves to wean itself off Russian oil and gas is creating a self-defeating trap
 
Beware a Global Economy with Little Fires Everywhere
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ukraine-war-economic-consequences-for-developing-countries-by-mohamed-a-el-erian-2022-05
 
Protectionism Is a Mounting Threat to Global Growth
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-11/down-with-post-globalization-free-trade-can-and-must-survive-covid-19 

Poor Countries Face a Mounting Catastrophe Fueled by Inflation and Debt
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/17/business/inflation-developing-economies.html

Higher Education: Unmotivated Students and Declining Rigor

Late Assignments, Failed Tests, Sleeping in Class: My College Students are Not OK
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/13/opinion/college-university-remote-pandemic.html
Jonathan Malesic notes:
The pandemic certainly made college more challenging for students, and over the past two years, compassionate faculty members have loosened course structures in response: They have introduced recorded lectures, flexible attendance and deadline policies, and lenient grading. In light of the widely reported mental health crisis on campuses, some students and faculty members are calling for those looser standards and remote options to persist indefinitely, even as vaccines and Covid therapies have made it relatively safe to return to prepandemic norms.
I also feel compassion for my students, but the learning breakdown has convinced me that continuing to relax standards would be a mistake. Looser standards are contributing to the problem, because they make it too easy for students to disengage from classes.
Student disengagement is a problem for everyone, because everyone depends on well-educated people. College prepares students for socially essential careers — including as engineers and nurses — and to be citizens who bring high-level intellectual habits to bear on big societal problems, from climate change to the next political crisis. On a more fundamental level it also prepares many students to be responsible adults: to set goals and figure out what help they need to attain them. 

After the pandemic disrupted their high school educations, students are arriving at college unprepared
https://hechingerreport.org/after-the-pandemic-disrupted-their-high-school-educations-students-are-arriving-at-college-unprepared/

"Now, after two years of cobbled-together pandemic learning, many college students not only are less prepared than they should be, they’ve forgotten how to be students…
Uri Treisman, is nationally known for his techniques and philosophies for teaching calculus. He said the fall 2021 semester of first-year calculus was the most difficult he’s had in his 50-year career.
His students were making basic errors in algebra and trigonometry from the beginning. Despite Treisman doing all he could to help them succeed, about 25 percent of his students failed in the fall — compared to 5 percent in an ordinary year. …
And during the 2020-21 academic year, UT adopted a policy allowing students to designate up to three of their courses to be graded as pass/fail, rather than with letter grades, Patterson said. The standard policy, pre-pandemic, wouldn’t allow students to take advantage of pass/fail grading until they had completed at least 30 credits, which typically excludes first-year students. The emergency policy allowed students to “pass” these classes with a grade as low as a D minus, so students who earned a D grade in a prerequisite course could move on without necessarily having mastered the material".

Related:

Disadvantaged kids hurt by keeping pandemic’s relaxed teaching style
https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2022/05/15/pandemic-easy-teaching-hurting-students/
A veteran teacher sees students being robbed of a chance of learning to handle stress.

India and the World Economy

The Indian economy is being rewired. The opportunity is immense
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/05/13/the-indian-economy-is-being-rewired-the-opportunity-is-immense
 
India is likely to be the world’s fastest-growing big economy this year
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2022/05/14/india-is-likely-to-be-the-worlds-fastest-growing-big-economy-this-year
 
The world needs a new economic motor. Could India fit the bill?
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/05/14/the-world-needs-a-new-economic-motor-could-india-fit-the-bill 

Grade Inflation in UK

First-class degrees double in a decade as warnings mount over Covid grade inflation
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/05/12/covid-cannot-excuse-grade-inflation-watchdog-says-first-class/
The Office for Students warns that handing out unmerited degrees ‘damages the reputation of English higher education’
 
Universities must not allow a ‘decade of grade inflation to be baked into the system’
https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/news-blog-and-events/press-and-media/universities-must-not-allow-a-decade-of-grade-inflation-to-be-baked-into-the-system/
Related:
https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/news-blog-and-events/blog/degrees-of-inflation-ensuring-the-credibility-and-reliability-of-higher-education-qualifications/
 
There's a simple solution to the problem of grade inflation
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/05/simple-solution-problem-grade-inflation/
Some universities already rank students - putting it on the degree certificate would immediately help employers
 
My Take:
Is the US higher education bubble about to burst?
https://thehill.com/opinion/education/590971-will-the-us-higher-education-bubble-finally-burst 

Central Bank Appointments

Swati Dhingra to join Bank of England’s monetary policy committee
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/may/12/swati-dhingra-to-join-bank-of-england-monetary-policy-committee 

PhD in Economics – University of Wisconsin, Madison.

Lisa Cook is confirmed as a new Fed governor.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/10/business/lisa-cook-confirmed-fed-governor.html
Ms. Cook has a doctorate in economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
 
The Senate confirms Philip Jefferson as a Fed governor.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/11/business/philip-jefferson-fed-governor.html
Mr. Jefferson holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Virginia.
 
Lorie K. Logan Named President and CEO of Dallas Fed
https://www.dallasfed.org/news/releases/2022/nr220511logan
She is a native of Versailles, Kentucky, and holds a bachelor's degree in political science from Davidson College and a master's degree in public administration from Columbia University.

The Economy's Speed Limit

The Fed Is Driving the Economy Without Knowing Its Speed Limit
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fed-is-driving-the-economy-without-knowing-its-speed-limit-11652353381 

The Latest Crypto Crash

The Crash of Crypto’s Perpetual Wealth Machine
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/05/the-crash-of-cryptos-perpetual-motion-machine.html

Bitcoin Is Increasingly Acting Like Just Another Tech Stock
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/11/technology/bitcoin-price-crashing-stocks.html

Cryptocurrencies Melt Down in a ‘Perfect Storm’ of Fear and Panic
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/12/technology/cryptocurrencies-crash-bitcoin.html  

Turmoil and panic in crypto market as ‘stablecoin’ slump prompts wider collapse

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/may/12/stablecoin-tether-breaks-dollar-peg-cryptocurrencies

Crypto’s plummet tests the durability of a hype-driven industry

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/05/12/crypto-crash-terra-national-bitcoin/

NFT scams, toxic ‘mines’ and lost life savings: the cryptocurrency dream is fading fast
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/12/nft-scams-mines-cryptocurrency-crypto-con
 
More Than $200 Billion Wiped Off Cryptocurrency Market in a Day
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-12/more-than-200-bilion-wiped-off-cryptocurrency-market-in-a-day

My take from May 2021:

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/554998-is-bitcoin-the-future-of-money
“If not the future of money, can we make a case for Bitcoin as digital gold? Proponents argue that since Bitcoin, by design, is limited to a maximum of 21 million units, it can act as a stable store of value. Given its short history and its intangible nature, it is unclear that Bitcoin offers a true alternative to traditional gold. Gold has a long history as a medium of exchange, and the yellow metal has impressive physical properties that have caused humans to value it highly for thousands of years. Even today, many societies widely use gold for jewelry and ceremonial purposes. Additionally, from a financial standpoint, Bitcoin is currently too correlated with risky assets to act as an effective inflation hedge”. 

Related: 

Have misguided policies led to recent asset bubbles and boom-bust cycles?

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/538921-have-misguided-policies-led-to-recent-asset-bubbles-and-boom-bust-cycles  

Downside of Protectionism

What’s Behind America’s Shocking Baby-Formula Shortage?
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/baby-formula-shortage-abbott-recall/629828/
“Conservative populists and even liberals who are skeptical of globalization sometimes argue that if the U.S. made everything within our borders, our economy would be more resilient. But the baby-formula shortage suggests that things don’t always work out that way. Instead, we’re seeing what happens when we reduce trade with other countries for an essential good: We’re more vulnerable to emergencies like a bacteria-infested plant in Michigan”. 

The Importance of Social Trust

Trusting societies are overall happier – a happiness expert explains why
https://theconversation.com/trusting-societies-are-overall-happier-a-happiness-expert-explains-why-177803
 
Related:
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2021/11/trust-society-and-social-fabric.html 

Gen X – The Forgotten Generation

Gen X mocks viral tweet saying millennials and Gen Z will succeed boomers in running the country
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gen-x-mocks-viral-tweet-saying-millennials-and-gen-z-will-succeed-boomers-in-running-the-country-11652285649 

Tech Progress and Economic Growth

The Forgotten Stage of Human Progress
https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/05/human-progress-invention-eureka-myth/629811/
Invention is easily overrated, and implementation is often underrated.

Why long-term economic growth often disappoints
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/05/07/why-long-term-economic-growth-often-disappoints 

Have we been thinking about economic growth all wrong?
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23048981/economic-growth-productivity-philippon 

How does progress happen?
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22652782/roots-of-progress-jason-crawford
 
Related:
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2019/08/pace-of-tech-progress-and-long-term.html