Attention Economy


Tuesday, March 1, 2022

Weaponization of Finance - The Big Picture View

My take: The weaponization of finance threatens the future of the dollar standard
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/596116-the-weaponization-of-finance-may-threaten-the-future-of-the-dollar-standard
Powerful countries that bully weaker ones and target non-combatants are bound to invite a strong response. In the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine, any direct Western military action can essentially be ruled out (the Cold War concept of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) is still in play if it involves a direct conflict with Russia). This has led many to call for wide-ranging financial sanctions and restrictions to be imposed on Russia.
The decision to remove several Russian banks from the SWIFT financial messaging system and sanction the country’s central bank has been popular among the general public but has raised concerns on Wall Street. Further sanctions on Russian commodity exports might roil the global market and further fuel the inflationary dynamics that have caused food and energy prices to skyrocket in recent weeks and months. Potentially destabilizing consequences for the emerging and developing world cannot be ruled out.
Given the heated global political environment, it is necessary to inject a note of caution into ongoing debates centered on the weaponization of dollar-based global finance. If we take a step back and calmly evaluate the potential long-term strategic and economic threats facing the U.S., one in particular stands out. ...
Recent moves by the West to weaponize dollar-based global finance may yet provide the necessary spur for China to speed up measures to reduce its reliance on the U.S. dollar and create an alternate global financial payments system. Furthermore, given China’s increasingly aggressive stance towards Taiwan, a future flare-up with the U.S. cannot be ruled out.
If, for instance, the U.S. were to abandon its stance of “strategic ambiguity” in regards to defending Taiwan, China is likely to respond militarily. Having observed the West’s reaction to Russian aggression, China will rationally conclude that any significant exposure to the SWIFT network and the dollar-based global financial system will curtail its options.

The West’s Plan to Isolate Putin: Undermine the Ruble

As Sanctions Batter Economy, Russians Face the Anxieties of a Costly War
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/world/europe/russia-economy-sanctions-ukraine.html

U.S., European allies freeze ‘Putin’s war chest’ as Russia careens toward economic crisis
https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/02/28/white-house-europe-russia-ukraine-sanctions/ 

U.S. Prods Exchanges to Thwart Crypto Use by Sanctioned Russians

Putin's War Shows West Must Clean Up Dirty Money
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-01/putin-s-war-shows-west-must-clean-up-dirty-money
 
Boris Johnson promises UK property register to expose kleptocrat money
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/feb/28/boris-johnson-promises-uk-property-register-to-expose-kleptocrat-money


Economic Historian Adam Tooze on the Russia-West conflict: