Attention Economy


Wednesday, October 27, 2021

Reading the Bond Market Tea Leaves

The Bond Market Says Inflation Will Last. You Should Be Listening.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/26/business/inflation-interest-rates-treasury-bonds.html
 
Hedge Fund Superstars Can’t Master Yield Curves
Billionaire Chris Rokos’s $14.5 billion macro fund lost 11% this month as rates fluctuated wildly. And he’s probably not alone
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-10-27/hedge-fund-superstars-like-chris-rokos-can-t-master-yield-curves
 
My piece from July 30:
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/565660-is-the-recent-dip-in-treasury-yields-a-cause-for-concern
It is hard to justify today’s ultra-low yields on long-dated Treasuries based on fundamentals unless we are headed for a period of dramatically weaker growth that is accompanied by extremely low inflation, an outcome that appears unlikely. Rationally, we should expect yields to rise going forward”.