Attention Economy


Monday, March 22, 2021

Central Banks and Market Interest Rates

What Drives Interest Rates? Old Question Is Key to New Economics
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-22/at-the-heart-of-the-new-economics-lies-a-centuries-old-mystery
For years, estimates of future borrowing costs have tended to be too high –- leading to projections of bigger debts, and helping deter public spending. Some worry the opposite could happen now: politicians will grow complacent about low interest rates, borrow and spend too much, then get a nasty surprise when they spike.
But there’s a school of economic thought says that governments and central banks play a bigger role in shaping interest rates than the mainstream acknowledges. Translated into practical terms, that means countries can turn their own borrowing costs into a policy choice, instead of a price that gets discovered in the marketplace.
It’s not a new idea, says Paul McCulley, the former chief economist at Pimco. “The central bank has always had more power over long rates than the consensus had thought,” he says. “They just weren’t exercising it”. 


The Fed chair, Jerome Powell, has become a popular Main Street champion. Here’s a history of the advocacy that made this possible.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/23/opinion/powell-federal-reserve-inflation.html