Attention Economy


Sunday, October 13, 2019

Stock and Bond Market Signals and Business Cycle Turning Points

Trump Has Real Reasons to Fixate Over the Stock Market: Study finds a measurable tie between share returns and voting
“While no cycle is the same, past patterns in relation to a widely followed recession signal -- a curve inversion where two-year Treasury yields sit above 10-year, may point to a market peak and an economic downturn close to next year’s election.
Since 1956, such bond market warnings preceded a S&P 500 top by seven months and a recession by 15 months, on average, data compiled by Bank of America showed. Yields inverted in August for the first time in more than a decade. Should a similar path be followed, stocks may face some trouble starting in March 2020 and a recession in November.”

Is the World Economy Sliding into First Recession Since 2009?