The BEA typically publishes three estimates of GDP for a given quarter. For instance, here is the time line for 2019Q1 GDP:
Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2019 (advance estimate) April 26
Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2019 (second estimate) May 30
Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2019 (third estimate) June 27
Invariably, the advance estimate figures are revised in the following months. So, placing too much emphasis on advance estimate figures is not recommended.
Here is a 2015 piece from The Economist on data revisions:
When is a 3.2% growth rate not necessarily a solid growth rate?
America’s strong growth this year surprises economists: But look more closely at the latest GDP figures, and they are not so rosy
From Bloomberg:
“But underlying demand was weaker than the headline number indicated. Consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy, rose a slightly-above-forecast 1.2 percent, while business investment cooled. …
Friday’s report showed net exports added 1.03 percentage point to growth while rising private inventories added 0.65 point. The combined boost of 1.68 point was the biggest in six years.”
Looking under the hood: Deciphering underlying growth trends
Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers Suggests a Slowdown
Another useful measure is Final Sales of Domestic Product:
The difference between GDP and Final Sales of Domestic Product is that the final sales figure leaves out private inventory changes. The underlying logic for ignoring changes in the pace of inventory accumulation is that they are often volatile and frequently exhibit erratic behavior. Hence, the final sales measure might act as a better gauge of final demand.
For instance, 2018Q4 and 2019Q1 inventory accumulation data was affected by fears that the Trump administration would impose further tariffs on Chinese products (which may have led businesses to preemptively accumulate inventories to limit potential trade war related costs).
Useful Definitions from the BEA:
Gross domestic purchases is the market value of goods and services purchased by U.S. residents, regardless of where those goods and services were produced. It is equal to GDP minus net exports.
Final sales of domestic product is equal to GDP less change in private inventories.
Final sales to domestic purchasers is equal to gross domestic purchases less change in private inventories.
Final sales to private domestic purchasers is equal to final sales to domestic purchasers less government consumption expenditures and gross investment.
