The top tax rate has been cut six times since 1980 — usually with Democrats’ help
www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2019/02/27/top-tax-rate-has-been-cut-six-times-since-usually-with-democrats-help/Thursday, February 28, 2019
Wednesday, February 27, 2019
Technology, Jobs and Societal Changes
RICHARD BALDWIN on TECHNOLOGY AND THE FUTURE OF WORK
Job Market Polarization
Job Market Polarization
Are Robots Competing for Your Job?
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/03/04/are-robots-competing-for-your-job
Generation Z is stressed, depressed and exam-obsessed
Efficacy of Regulations
Why less regulation isn’t necessarily better
http://review.chicagobooth.edu/public-policy/2019/article/why-less-regulation-isn-t-necessarily-better
http://review.chicagobooth.edu/public-policy/2019/article/why-less-regulation-isn-t-necessarily-better
Is regulation to blame for the decline in
American entrepreneurship?
Profile of economist Alex Tabarrok
Emerging Markets - Interesting Items
China’s Role in Sustaining Global Growth
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/02/27/why-a-global-manufacturing-slump-is-a-recurring-threat
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/02/27/why-a-global-manufacturing-slump-is-a-recurring-threat
China Opens to Foreign Credit Raters to
Boost Bond Credibility
Public Policy and Inequality
Interesting new research:
https://promarket.org/governments-responsibility-rising-inequality-tools-reduce-it/
https://promarket.org/governments-responsibility-rising-inequality-tools-reduce-it/
A new study tracks the influence of public policy on
inequality and argues that the main rise in inequality has been a result of the
decline in public sectors in the OECD countries.
Tuesday, February 26, 2019
Monday, February 25, 2019
Sunday, February 24, 2019
Why do Americans Work More than Citizens of Other Rich Economies?
Why Americans and Britons work such long
hours
Derek Thompson argues: For the college-educated elite,
work has morphed into a religious identity—promising identity, transcendence,
and community, but failing to deliver.
“No large country
in the world as productive as the United States averages more hours of work a
year. And the gap between the U.S. and other countries is growing. Between 1950
and 2012, annual hours worked per employee fell by about 40 percent in Germany
and the Netherlands—but by only 10 percent in the United States. Americans
“work longer hours, have shorter vacations, get less in unemployment, disability,
and retirement benefits, and retire later, than people in comparably rich
societies,” wrote Samuel P. Huntington in his 2005 book Who Are We?: The
Challenges to America’s National Identity.
One group has led
the widening of the workist gap: rich men.
In 1980, the
highest-earning men actually worked fewer hours per week than middle-class and
low-income men, according to a survey by the Minneapolis Fed. But that’s
changed. By 2005, the richest 10 percent of married men had the longest average
workweek. In that same time, college-educated men reduced their leisure time
more than any other group.”
Economics of Helicopter Parenting
Northwestern economist Matthias Doepke and Yale economist
Fabrizio Zilibotti note:
The greater a country’s income inequality,
the likelier parents are to push their kids to work hard
"Many people who
grew up in America in the 1970s remember a low-pressure childhood with a lot
more freedom and independence than today’s kids enjoy. Data backs up those
impressions. In 1969, 41 percent of American children biked or walked to
school, a figure that had dropped to about 18 percent by 2014. In 2017,
according to the American Time Use Survey, a typical American parent spent
close to twice as much time each week interacting with their children as
parents did in the late 1970s (almost 28 hours for both parents in 2017, up
from 14 hours in 1976). And education-oriented activities grew the fastest.
These changes put a significant burden on parents. The numbers are even more striking when you consider that, in 1976, mothers were far less likely to be in the workforce than in 2017, which means that parents today are working more and doing more hands-on parenting.”
These changes put a significant burden on parents. The numbers are even more striking when you consider that, in 1976, mothers were far less likely to be in the workforce than in 2017, which means that parents today are working more and doing more hands-on parenting.”
Related:
Why Swedes Are Chiller Parents Than Americans
Collapse of Civilizations – History Lesson
Research on the demise of historic civilizations
List of civilizations and how long they lasted
List of civilizations and how long they lasted
US-China Negotiations - Relative Bargaining Power
Yale economist and former Morgan Stanley Chief Economist
Stephen Roach observes:
“With the Chinese economy slowing, the US believes
that China is hurting and desperate for a deal to end the bilateral trade war
before it resumes after March 1, when the current 90-day truce expires. But the
two economies’ longer-term fundamentals compel a very different verdict on
relative strength.”
Saturday, February 23, 2019
The Darkside of Financial Globalization
The Cost of Dirty Money
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-dirty-money
Related:
Related:
kleptocracy, money laundering and global corruption:
HISTORY LESSON: American Politics – Not Much Has Changed
The Bitter Origins of the Fight Over Big
Government: What the battle between Herbert Hoover and FDR can teach us
Demographic Shifts and the Future of Mankind
Global population boom may now be turning to
population bust. The consequences, for better or worse, will shape our future.
Book Recommendation:
Thanks to education, global fertility could
fall faster than expected
Two Cheers for Population Decline
Book Recommendation:
Research: Quality versus Quantity
Australia's chief scientist Alan Finkel notes:
“... institutions
must heed growing calls to abandon paper counting and similar metrics for
evaluating researchers. One alternative approach, the Rule of Five,
demonstrates a clear commitment to quality: candidates present their best five
papers over the past five years, accompanied by a description of the research,
its impact and their individual contribution. The exact numbers are immaterial:
what matters is the focus on quality.”
Friday, February 22, 2019
Macro Stability, Resource Curse and Economic Development
Bolivia's Problem Is Macroeconomics, Not Socialism
Related:
Thursday, February 21, 2019
The Office Space Revolution
WeWorks - The co-working giant’s real product isn’t office space — it’s a new kind of “corporate culture “
Wednesday, February 20, 2019
The Currency Manipulation Debate
The Currency Manipulation Debate
Scott Sumner on the currency manipulation debate:
Tuesday, February 19, 2019
Tax Policy, Deficits and Debt [UPDATED]
How America Learned to Stop Worrying and
Love Deficits and Debt
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/23/upshot/how-america-learned-to-stop-worrying-and-love-deficits-and-debt.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/23/upshot/how-america-learned-to-stop-worrying-and-love-deficits-and-debt.html
Budget Deficits Still Matter
Justin Fox notes:
“They don’t tax wealth much, their income taxes are high but not very progressive, and they rely a lot on consumption taxes.”
Taxes and Economic Performance
Amazon paid no federal taxes on $11.2
billion in profits last year
How Can We Tax Footloose Multinationals?
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/corporate-tax-avoidance-end-transfer-pricing-by-joseph-e-stiglitz-2019-02
Bill Gates on the US Tax Policy Debate
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-17/gates-says-capital-gain-taxes-best-way-to-tap-big-fortunes
Bill Gates on the US Tax Policy Debate
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-17/gates-says-capital-gain-taxes-best-way-to-tap-big-fortunes
Sunday, February 17, 2019
Brexit and London’s Status as a Financial Center
For Wall Street Banks in London, It’s Moving Time
Related:
Wednesday, February 13, 2019
Depreciation, Tax Breaks and Automation
A $300 billion business tax break meant to raise wages is instead helping companies replace workers with machines
WSJ piece notes:
Federal tax revenue declined 0.4% in 2018, the first full calendar year under the new tax law, despite robust economic growth and the lowest unemployment rate in nearly five decades.
Related:
Early Indicators of Financial Stress
Auto-Loan Delinquencies Are the Highest Since 2012
Household debt inches higher as auto loans rev up while mortgage originations fall
Euro Area - Economic Slowdown
Weakness in the Eurozone
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-13/europe-is-the-real-weak-link-for-global-economy-eyeing-trade-war
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-13/europe-is-the-real-weak-link-for-global-economy-eyeing-trade-war
It is time to worry about Germany’s economy
Tuesday, February 12, 2019
AI and Future of Work - Will Women Have the Edge?
The robot-proof skills that give women an edge in the age of AI
https://www.ft.com/content/06afd24a-2dfb-11e9-ba00-0251022932c8
https://www.ft.com/content/06afd24a-2dfb-11e9-ba00-0251022932c8
The "end of men" and rise of women in the high-skilled labor market
Labor’s Share– Speech by Andy Haldane
Monday, February 11, 2019
What Drives Populism?
It’s not xenophobia that links the ‘new
populists.’ It’s hypocrisy.
A Warning from Europe: The Worst Is Yet to Come
Anne Applebaum notes:
“Polarization. Conspiracy theories. Attacks on the
free press. An obsession with loyalty. Recent events in the United States
follow a pattern Europeans know all too well.”
What Populists Do to Democracies
Roger Cohen on Crowd Psychology:
“People are weak. They are susceptible. They are
easily manipulated through their fears. They long to prostrate themselves. They
can be led by the nose into the gutter. The angels of their better natures, if
they’ve ever given a moment’s thought to them, are a lot less powerful than the
devils of their diabolical urges.
They lie, they exploit, they seek distraction at any
price from the monotony of existence. The life of humankind, as Hobbes famously
put it, is “solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short.” Especially short: You
no sooner begin to get the hang of it, learn a few useful tricks like lowered
expectations, than it’s over. Poof!
This is the basic setup. Society is an exercise in
trying to offset horrors through law and convention.”
BREXIT uncertainty finally hits UK Economy
GDP contracts by 0.4% in December in weakest year for growth since 2012
Rising Government Debt and Cost of Social Programs
Steven Rattner notes:
“It’s irresponsible to pretend that America can add splashy new social programs without finding a way to pay for them.”
My own perspective on the issue:
https://www.ut.edu/uploadedFiles/Academics/Business/Economics/TBEFall2018.pdf
For a left-of-center perspective, see:
The real reason conservatives are suddenly freaking out about ‘socialism’
Income versus Wealth – Flow versus Stock Variable
A flow variable (e.g. income) is measured for a given period of time whereas a stock variable (e.g. wealth) is measured at a given point in time.
Washington Post piece notes:
Wealth concentration returning to ‘levels last seen during the Roaring Twenties,’ according to new research
“For illustrative purposes, consider a person who owns a $250,000 house with $200,000 in outstanding mortgage debt. She also has $5,000 in her bank account and $25,000 in a 401(k). That person has a net worth of $80,000, a figure derived from the sum of all her assets ($250,000 + $5,000 + $25,000) minus the sum of all her debts ($200,000). That $80,000 puts her close to the national median of household net worth, according to previous research by Edward N. Wolff of New York University.”
The tax code treats all 1 percenters the same. It wasn’t always this way.
Sunday, February 10, 2019
Reexamining the College Wage Premium
Is College Still Worth It? It’s Complicated
Highest Paying Jobs with a Bachelor’s Degree
Interesting new research:
Yes, College Is ‘Worth It,’ One Researcher Says. It’s Just Worth More if You’re Rich.
Bartik, Timothy J., and Brad Hershbein. 2018. "Degrees of Poverty: The Relationship between Family Income Background and the Returns to Education." Upjohn Institute Working Paper 18-284.
ABSTRACT
Drawing on the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we document a startling empirical pattern: the career earnings premium from a four-year college degree (relative to a high school diploma) for persons from low-income backgrounds is considerably less than it is for those from higher-income backgrounds. For individuals whose family income in high school was above 1.85 times the poverty level, we estimate that career earnings for bachelor’s graduates are 136 percent higher than earnings for those whose education stopped at high school. However, for individuals whose family income during high school was below 1.85 times the poverty level, the career earnings of bachelor’s graduates are only 71 percent higher than those of high school graduates. This lower premium amounts to $300,000 less in career earnings in present discounted value. We establish the prevalence and robustness of these differential returns to education across race and gender, finding that they are driven by whites and men and by differential access to the right tail of the earnings distribution.
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The Hard Part of Computer Science? Getting into Class
Electricity and Economic Development
Satellite Images of Nighttime Electricity Usage and Economic Development
Night-time satellite imagery can measure electricity provision
Accelerating Africa’s Energy Transition
Africa might leapfrog straight to cheap renewable electricity and minigrids
Saturday, February 9, 2019
Stocks and Bonds - Recent Developments
As German Bund Yields Head to Zero, They Still Beat U.S. Treasuries
Impact of Universal Basic Income
In Finland, Money Can Buy You Happiness
Tiny Indian state proposes world’s biggest experiment with guaranteed income
Battling Eight Giants with Basic Income
Friday, February 8, 2019
Technological Progress – Historical Perspective
If we look at technology over very long
timescales, our definition of what it is transforms
Kleptocracy, Money Laundering and Global Corruption [MUST READ]
FRANKLIN FOER on kleptocracy, money laundering and global
corruption:
Weekend Readings - Interesting Items
Economic Geography:
Rust Belt Cities Should Try Embracing the Suburbs
Why Germany has no gilet jaunes protesters
https://www.economist.com/europe/2019/02/09/why-germany-has-no-gilet-jaunes-protesters
https://www.economist.com/europe/2019/02/09/why-germany-has-no-gilet-jaunes-protesters
Federal Reserve chair calls income
inequality the biggest challenge in next 10 years
Why Power in the Senate Is Increasingly
Imbalanced
Thursday, February 7, 2019
Economics of Climate Change
The Economist cover story - ExxonMobil gambles on growth
A bold new plan to tackle climate change ignores economic orthodoxy
An Economist's Guide to Climate Change Science
A Better Version of Capitalism
Seven Fixes for American Capitalism
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-02-07/seven-fixes-for-american-capitalism
Terminology Matters
Paul Krugman notes:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/07/opinion/trump-socialism-state-of-the-union.html
“What Americans who support “socialism” actually want is what the rest of the world calls social democracy: A market economy, but with extreme hardship limited by a strong social safety net and extreme inequality limited by progressive taxation. They want us to look like Denmark or Norway, not Venezuela.”
“What Americans who support “socialism” actually want is what the rest of the world calls social democracy: A market economy, but with extreme hardship limited by a strong social safety net and extreme inequality limited by progressive taxation. They want us to look like Denmark or Norway, not Venezuela.”
Cass Sunstein observes:
“… most of the Americans who approve of socialism are likely to be thinking of something like Scandinavian-style social democracy, rather than something out of Karl Marx. But words matter, especially when they refer to systems of governance”.
Wednesday, February 6, 2019
Size and Role of Government – Charts and Analysis
Eight charts show it’s not entirely clear
which direction Washington is going.
Related:
WHAT IF WE CAN’T MAKE GOVERNMENT SMALLER? BY
WILL WILKINSON
Interesting Investment Advice
Where to Invest $10,000 Right Now
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/how-to-invest-10k/
--
Washington Post article notes:
--
Washington Post article notes:
“JPMorgan Chase, the nation’s largest bank, is paying 0.01 percent interest on a basic saving account, the equivalent of a dime a year for someone holding $1,000 at the bank. Bank of America is offering 0.03 percent interest and Wells Fargo is paying 0.01 percent, according to Bankrate.com…
The interest rate that the Fed sets — known officially as the Federal funds rate — is the one that banks charge each other. Banks can turn around and set whatever rates they want for customers. Typically, banks raise the interest rates they pay savers when they want to attract deposits and win new customers. But right now analysts say large banks are flush with deposits and see little need to pay higher rates.”
Interest Rate Economics
How Much Could Negative Rates Have Helped
the Recovery?
https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2019/february/how-much-could-negative-rates-have-helped-recovery/el2019-04.pdf
From LIBOR to SOFR
Setting Fed Funds Rate
Tuesday, February 5, 2019
India’s Long-Term Growth Potential
Excellent piece from FT’s Martin Wolf:
India will rise, regardless of its politics
World Bank Report:
India’s Growth Story
Technology and Inequality
Tech Is Splitting the U.S. Work Force in Two
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/04/business/economy/productivity-inequality-wages.html
Eduardo Porter notes:
“Automation is splitting the American labor force into two worlds. There is a small island of highly educated professionals making good wages at corporations like Intel or Boeing, which reap hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit per employee. That island sits in the middle of a sea of less educated workers who are stuck at businesses like hotels, restaurants and nursing homes that generate much smaller profits per employee and stay viable primarily by keeping wages low.”
Monday, February 4, 2019
Scientific Research Making News
A Study on Driverless-Car Ethics Offers a
Troubling Look into Our Values
The Moral Machine Experiment
America colonization ‘cooled Earth's climate’
American colonization contributed to the
Little Ice Age: Epidemics killed so many indigenous Americans that it changed
the climate
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379118307261
Milky Way is warped and twisted, not flat
Milky Way is warped and twisted, not flat
Scientists in
Australia and China create 3D map revealing the true shape of the galaxy
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-018-0686-7Sunday, February 3, 2019
Global Population Trends
Thanks to education, global fertility could fall faster than expected
Two Cheers for Population Decline
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