Attention Economy


Monday, January 14, 2019

Short-Run Impact of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)

Historical Perspective on 'Laffer Curve':
Gwynn Guilford notes:
“Laffer’s supply-side logic served as the intellectual cornerstone for Reagan’s tax cuts, marking a turning point in conservative ideology. Up until this point, Republican orthodoxy was mostly focused on avoiding fiscal deficits. The GOP was even fine with raising taxes as long as the government covered its expenses. Economists and liberal politicians saw tax cuts as a way to tuck some extra cash into workers’ pockets, encouraging them to consume—which, in turn, boosted growth. But many old-school Republicans scoffed at Laffer’s trickle-down theories. The most famous example of this came during the GOP primary, when George H.W. Bush dubbed Reagan’s supply-side ideology “voodoo economics.””

Tax Cut Is Better (for Companies) and Worse (for Everyone Else)

Now We Know How Much the Tax Bill Really Cost

One Year Later, Benefits from Corporate Tax Cut Seem Muted

Fiscal Stimulus Effects Fading Fast

Paul Krugman makes an interesting point:
“But, you may say, isn’t it politically important for Democrats to present themselves as the party of fiscal responsibility? I’m highly skeptical.
Consider budget history over the past generation. The story is very clear: When in power, Democrats make big efforts to balance the budget; when Republicans come in, they promptly blow the money on tax cuts for the wealthy. Yet polling consistently shows the G.O.P. with an edge on the question of which party is better at dealing with deficits.”

Harvard economist Ken Rogoff notes:
With policy interest rates near zero in most advanced economies (and just above 2% even in the fast-growing US), there is little room for monetary policy to maneuver in a recession without considerable creativity. But those who think fiscal policy alone will save the day are stupefyingly naive.”