Attention Economy


Wednesday, January 9, 2019

Reconsidering Political Risk in the US and UK

Should investors continue to assume that the US and UK are politically low risk economies?

Is the Federal Reserve an Independent Central Bank?
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-01-09/fed-can-trump-fire-powell-only-custom-stands-in-the-way

Trump Has Likely Done Lasting Damage to the Fed
University of Oregon economist Tim Duy notes:
“The President is both setting in motion a crisis while undermining the institution that needs to respond to that crisis.”

The Ghost of Trump Chaos Future
Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman notes:
“Put an unstable, ignorant, belligerent man in the Oval Office, and he will eventually do crazy things.”

Have We Had Enough of the Imperial Presidency Yet?

Fitch warns an extended shutdown could hurt the U.S. credit rating

A Shut Down Government Actually Costs More Than an Open One

Brexit Is Coming Down to a Game of Brinkmanship

Like Greece, Brexit negotiations leave the UK a rule taker from the EU

A very British farce
From the New Statesman:
“This absurd spectacle is absorbing the energy and funding that should be devoted to Britain’s genuine problems: a chaotic new welfare system (Universal Credit), an understaffed health service (there are 100,000 vacancies in the NHS), an over-centralised state, a lack of adequately paid jobs (a record number of working families are in poverty), crumbling infrastructure and a disturbing rise in rough sleeping (which has increased by 169 per cent since 2010). The profound social and economic discontent that underlay the 2016 Leave vote is being carelessly neglected.”

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Related:
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2018/12/08/why-investors-in-emerging-market-bonds-are-so-attuned-to-political-risk
https://www.economist.com/business/2016/09/15/risky-business