Gender imbalances and China's marriage market
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-09-29/why-marriage-costs-in-china-are-out-of-control
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-09-29/why-marriage-costs-in-china-are-out-of-control
Sunday, September 30, 2018
Saturday, September 29, 2018
Thought-Provoking Reads
Why America Has a Two-Track Economy
www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-09-27/why-america-has-a-two-track-economy
Should public companies do more than maximize profits?
http://review.chicagobooth.edu/finance/2018/article/should-public-companies-do-more-maximize-profits
Profit Sharing Now
Should public companies do more than maximize profits?
http://review.chicagobooth.edu/finance/2018/article/should-public-companies-do-more-maximize-profits
Profit Sharing Now
The Most Important Least-Noticed Economic Event of the Decade
Friday, September 28, 2018
Asia's Tech Industry
China’s Tech Entrepreneurs - 35-Year-Old Unknown Creates the World’s Most Valuable Startup
Colliers latest report: TOP LOCATIONS IN ASIA – TECHNOLOGY SECTOR
#1: Bangalore, India
#2: Singapore
#3: Shenzhen, China
Thursday, September 27, 2018
Automation and Jobs - The Case of Emerging Markets
Ethiopia to Mauritius: how will Africa match jobs to its population boom?
“Inside a warehouse the size of seven football fields, hundreds of robots pack roughly 200,000 boxes each day and ship them to customers across China. Four humans babysit.”
Machines Are Coming for India’s Unwanted Factory Jobs
Machines Are Coming for India’s Unwanted Factory Jobs
Market Inflection Point?
Forget Tantrums, Emerging Markets Are the Haven Now
Do Spectacular Earnings Justify Spectacular US Stock Prices?
Wednesday, September 26, 2018
A Laughable Foreign Policy Agenda
Trump’s foreign policy is indeed worth a
laugh
Monday, September 24, 2018
Climate Change and Migration
Is it time to rethink internal migration trends in the US?
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/sep/24/americas-era-of-climate-mass-migration-is-here
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/sep/24/americas-era-of-climate-mass-migration-is-here
“Millions of
Americans will confront similarly hard choices as climate change conjures up
brutal storms, flooding rains, receding coastlines and punishing heat. Many are
already opting to shift to less perilous areas of the same city, or to havens
in other states. Whole towns from Alaska to Louisiana are looking to relocate,
in their entirety, to safer ground”.
The World's Most Scenic Airport
Sikkim (India) has one of the world's most beautiful airports
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-45624436
--
Interestingly, Sikkim has also switched to organic farming and become something of a tourist attraction
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-45624436
--
Interestingly, Sikkim has also switched to organic farming and become something of a tourist attraction
Organic Farming in Sikkim
Sunday, September 23, 2018
The Continuing Relevance of Adam Smith
Adam Smith: Father of Economics by Jesse Norman
Reviews:
A Few Notable Quotes from Adam Smith:
“It is the maxim of every prudent master of a family never to attempt to make at home what it will cost him more to make than to buy. What is prudence in the conduct of every private family can scarce be folly in that of a great kingdom. If a foreign country can supply us with a commodity cheaper than we ourselves can make it, better buy it of them with some part of the produce of our own industry, employed in a way in which we have some advantage.” -- Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations
“How selfish soever man may be supposed, there are evidently some principles in his nature, which interest him in the fortune of others, and render their happiness necessary to him, though he derives nothing from it except the pleasure of seeing it.” -- Adam Smith, The Theory of Moral Sentiments
"Our merchants and master-manufacturers complain much of the bad effects of high wages in raising the price, and thereby lessening the sale of their goods both at home and abroad. They say nothing concerning the bad effects of high profits. They are silent with regard to the pernicious effects of their own gains. They complain only of those of other people." -- Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations
"The rate of profit... is naturally low in rich and high in poor countries, and it is always highest in the countries which are going fastest to ruin." -- Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations
---
The Problem with Inequality, According to Adam Smith by DENNIS C. RASMUSSEN
“Smith also believed that the tendency to sympathize with the rich more easily than the poor makes people less happy. As I am reminded every year by my students, those who encounter Smith’s writings for the first time are usually quite surprised to learn that he associated happiness with tranquility—a lack of internal discord—and insisted not only that money can’t buy happiness but also that the pursuit of riches generally detracts from one’s happiness. He speaks, for instance, of “all that leisure, all that ease, all that careless security, which are forfeited forever” when one attains great wealth, and of “all that toil, all that anxiety, all those mortifications which must be undergone” in the pursuit of it. Happiness consists largely of tranquility, and there is little tranquility to be found in a life of toiling and striving to keep up with the Joneses.”
Related:
The Equalizing Hand: Why Adam Smith Thought the Market Should Produce Wealth Without Steep InequalityLobbying and Legalization of Corruption in the US
In the rest of the world, the following would be considered corrupt practices. In America, lobbying/campaign contributions has essentially legalized political corruption.
Billionaire Donor Sheldon Adelson and US Middle East Policies
THE ECONOMIST - Bob Murray, the coal baron with the president’s ear
Lobbying and Special Interests
Saturday, September 22, 2018
Friday, September 21, 2018
US-China Trade War - Winners and Losers
Why the US Would Lose A Trade War with China
Trade Barriers Will Not Stop China’s Rise
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/protectionism-can-no-longer-stop-china-by-adair-turner-2018-07
Is China’s International Joint Venture Policy Effective in Diffusing Technology?
https://promarket.org/chinas-international-joint-venture-policy-effective-diffusing-technology/
Is China’s International Joint Venture Policy Effective in Diffusing Technology?
https://promarket.org/chinas-international-joint-venture-policy-effective-diffusing-technology/
The Trade Slowdown Has Already Begun
Who Will Win the Trade War?
China’s Options:
Thursday, September 20, 2018
Population Growth and Economic Development
Africa’s high birth rate is keeping the
continent poor – The Economist
Dangers of Demographic Denial
On a positive note,
The Future Is in Africa, and China Knows It
Emerging Markets - Inequality and Development
Challenges in Measuring Inequality – The Case
of Brazil
India’s Inequality Challenge
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-09-19/crazy-rich-asians-are-so-yesterday-in-china-s-e-commerce
China’s Dynamic Middle Class
China’s Dynamic Middle Class
The Currency Manipulation Debate - China versus Switzerland
Trump’s Currency Confusion Continues
Harvard economist Jeffrey Frankel notes:
“China does not meet the three criteria that Congress has set for determining currency manipulation. It has not been persistently intervening in foreign-exchange markets (at least not to push down its currency), and it is not running an overall current-account surplus greater than or equal to 3% of GDP”
Swiss Paradox: Booming Economy, Negative Interest Rates
It is worth noting that Switzerland’s current account surplus in 2017 was around 9.8% of its GDP, while China’s current account surplus in 2017 was about 1.3%-1.4% of its GDP (according to IMF data).
Wednesday, September 19, 2018
US-Canada - Trade Ties
An in-depth look at US-Canada Trade Ties
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/business/us-canada-trade-balance
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/business/us-canada-trade-balance
Market Inflection Point
America First Won’t Last Much Longer in
Stocks, JPMorgan Warns
“This is the latest
warning from JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Marko Kolanovic, who
say to cut holdings in U.S. equities and add money in emerging markets. As the
benefits from President Donald Trump’s tax cuts dissipate, the world’s largest
economy is set to lose its edge in growth, they said.
“The large U.S.
fiscal boost this year, as well as the delayed positive impact of weak USD and
low rates from last year created a ‘sugar high’ for U.S. assets this year,” the
strategists wrote in a note to clients. “We expect convergence of macro
fundamentals between U.S. and international markets in the coming quarters;
with equity markets tending to price forward fundamentals by six to 12 months,
the time for the rotation may be now.”
Update:
Dollar Traders See the Fed’s Next Rate Hike as a Big Sell Signal
Monday, September 17, 2018
Real Estate Investment
A thought-provoking read: Why Canadians put so much faith
in the housing market
End of the Post-WWII International Order
The Global Trade System Could Break Down
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-attacks-on-world-trade-organization-by-anne-krueger-2018-09
The Economist on Trump’s foreign policy approach:
The Economist on Trump’s foreign policy approach:
President Trump’s tariffs have united his opponents at home and abroad
China’s Economic Competitiveness
A Twist in the U.S. Tariff Battle: ‘It’s
Helping China Be More Competitive’
China’s brain drain to the US is ending
China Is Overtaking the U.S. in Scientific Research
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-09-12/chinese-researchers-are-outperforming-americans-in-science
Misunderstanding China - Trump’s Trade War Is Just Fine with Xi Jinping
Michael Schuman notes:
“Of the many misperceptions driving Donald Trump’s trade policy, this may be the most dangerous: China isn’t desperate to maintain its interdependent relationship with the U.S. Rather, it’s a national objective to become more economically independent. That’s a quite different China than the one in Trump’s imagination. …
In real life, Trump’s tariffs are unlikely to inflict enough pain on China to compel Xi to make concessions. Its huge domestic market is becoming more important to Chinese growth. But beyond even that, Beijing’s entire economic strategy is designed to replace critical foreign technology and products with homegrown alternatives it can control. Simply, the Communist Party prefers Chinese to buy Xiaomi phones and Geely cars, not iPhones and Buicks.”
Evolution of Shenzhen
Shenzhen – Transformation of a fishing village in to the skyscraper capital of China
International Tax Competition
The Free-Market Case Against Tax Competition
How the Triple Tax Exemption on Puerto
Rico’s Bonds Financed Its Territorial Status—and Helped Spark Its Debt Crisis
Saturday, September 15, 2018
Yikes!! – Category 6 Hurricanes Possible in the Future
Will we soon see category 6 hurricanes?
“Lin and Emanuel
said their research showed that not only were grey swan hurricanes now likely
to occur, one such devastating hurricane would almost certainly hit the Persian
Gulf region – a place where tropical cyclones have never even been seen in history.
They identified a “potentially large risk in the Persian Gulf, where tropical
cyclones have never been recorded, and larger-than-expected threats in Cairns,
Australia, and Tampa, Florida”.
Emanuel and Lin
showed that the risk of such extreme grey swan hurricanes in Tampa, Cairns, and
the Persian Gulf increased by up to a factor of 14 over time as Earth’s climate
changed”.
Canada – A Blockchain Tech Hub
Canada emerges as a hub for blockchain
technology
Importance of Blockchain Technology
How the blockchain is changing money and business
Importance of Blockchain Technology
How the blockchain is changing money and business
Technology and Political Disruption
Harvard Historian Jill Lepore notes:
“Political and
technological disruption have fed off each other since the nation’s founding.
Now they are dangerously out of whack.”
Jill Lepore on the Destructive Power of Tech
- PODCAST
https://www.talkingpoliticspodcast.com/blog/2020/276-jill-lepore-on-the-destructive-power-of-tech
https://www.talkingpoliticspodcast.com/blog/2020/276-jill-lepore-on-the-destructive-power-of-tech
Friday, September 14, 2018
Ten Years Later - Developments Since the Collapse of Lehman Brothers
The Global Economy Is Still Feeling the
Lehman Fallout 10 Years Later
The Next Financial Calamity Is Coming.
Here’s What to Watch
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/09/12/business/the-next-recession-financial-crisis.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/09/12/business/the-next-recession-financial-crisis.html
A Decade after the Crisis – Lessons Learned
Thursday, September 13, 2018
When will the Current Economic Cycle Turn?
The Makings of a 2020 Recession and Financial Crisis
Related:
Wednesday, September 12, 2018
Fiscal Stimulus and the Current US Economic Boom
What’s Going On with the Economy? It’s the
Stimulus, Stupid
Related:
Global University Rankings – Based on Employability
Graduate Employability Rankings 2019
BBC piece on the new ranking:
Which universities will really impress the
boss?
Tuesday, September 11, 2018
Profile - Zuckerberg and Facebook
Interesting read:
Related:
Future of Privacy
Can Mark Zuckerberg Fix Facebook Before It Breaks Democracy?
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/09/17/can-mark-zuckerberg-fix-facebook-before-it-breaks-democracyRelated:
Future of Privacy
China and ASEAN
ASEAN AND THE ART OF LIVING WITH CHINA
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/2141235/asean-and-art-living-chinaMalaysia’s Complicated Ties with China
Monday, September 10, 2018
Emerging Market Currencies – Short-Term Volatility Creates Policy Challenges
RUPEE IS ASIA’S WORST PERFORMING CURRENCY
... BUT IS IT SO BLEAK FOR INDIA?
The Rupee Is Falling and India Should Let It
Argentina - the crisis in six charts
Decoding Currency Crises
Testing Time for Emerging Market Resilience
--
Long-Term EM Strength:
India's Strong Economy Continues to Lead Global Growth
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2018/08/07/NA080818-India-Strong-Economy-Continues-to-Lead-Global-Growth
As EM stocks reach bear territory, here is some interesting investment advice:
The Contrarian Case for Emerging Markets
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2018/08/18/the-contrarian-case-for-emerging-marketsAs EM stocks reach bear territory, here is some interesting investment advice:
Present versus the Future
Robert Samuelson’s must-read column: Why we don’t prepare for the future
“It’s hard to inflict present pain for uncertain future gain. Our political system makes us vulnerable to distant crises, because we don’t try to anticipate and defuse them. Just what kind of crisis is hard to know. A financial crisis — not unlike the 2008-2009 financial collapse — seems plausible. Other possibilities: war, pandemics and cyberattacks, to mention a few. There is one common denominator: We lose some control over our future.”
Saturday, September 8, 2018
What Should Intelligent People Read?
Some advice from economist Scott Sumner
“Read material on both
sides of the ideological spectrum, indeed on many different sides. I subscribe to three magazines, which
represent three different ideological perspectives. (NYR of Books, The Economist, Reason.) I also spend a lot of time reading the NYT,
WSJ, FT, WaPo, National Review, Bloomberg, South China Morning Post, Yahoo and
lots of other outlets—mostly online.
Don’t let your ideological bias affect how you view a news outlet.”
Thursday, September 6, 2018
EM Currency Woes – Crisis of Confidence
Why Argentine orthodoxy has worked no better than Turkish iconoclasm
Contagion Effect and Confidence Crisis
“… while the asset class may offer value over the long haul, investors will sell relatively safe holdings to cover losses in more vulnerable markets or, worse, treat all emerging markets the same and sell indiscriminately. A herd mentality has taken over, meaning no matter what the individual risks are in some countries, investors who choose to buy run the risk of being trampled”.
Foreign Debt Holdings and Currency Market Volatility
www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-09-06/why-russia-should-buy-back-its-debt
Contrarian Perspective:
Harness the Power of Emerging Markets
Wednesday, September 5, 2018
Crazy Rich Asians
New York eclipsed as city with most extremely wealthy people
“Hong Kong is now home to more extremely rich people than any other city in the world, surpassing New York City as the rapidly growing Chinese economy mints a new class of financial elites in the east, according to a new report.”
Related:
NYT’s Tom Friedman notes:
“Rich Asia has gotten really rich — not because it doesn’t have political, tribal, ethnic and religious differences like other regions, but because in more places on more days it learned to set those differences aside and focus on building the real foundations of sustainable wealth: education, trade, infrastructure, human capital and, in the most successful places, the rule of law. Most of Asia became prosperous not by discovering natural resources but by tapping its human resources — men and women — and giving them the tools to realize their potential.”
Monday, September 3, 2018
James Mirrlees – A Great Economic Theorist
Remembering Nobel Prize winning tax theorist
James Mirrlees
Real Wage Growth in the US
Where did our raises go? To health care.
Related:
Real (Inflation-Adjusted) Wages versus Nominal Wages
US Real Wages – Historical Trends
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/08/07/for-most-us-workers-real-wages-have-barely-budged-for-decades/
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/08/07/for-most-us-workers-real-wages-have-barely-budged-for-decades/
Sunday, September 2, 2018
Chinese Investment in Africa
An interesting piece from Foreign Policy:
Chinese Aid and Investment Are Good for Africa
“The Djibouti example aside, though, Chinese loans are neither inherently good nor bad—they will be whatever the African nations choose to make of them. Increased competition for African real estate and resources should, in theory, enhance the bargaining power of African governments, which is inarguably a good thing. The question, however, is whether African leaders will rise to the occasion or whether they will settle for deals that may deliver short-term gains but at significant long-term costs.
Update:
Update:
China pledges $60 billion in aid and loans
to Africa, no ‘political conditions attached’
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/china-pledges-60-billion-in-aid-and-loans-to-africa-no-strings-attached/2018/09/03/a446af2a-af88-11e8-a810-4d6b627c3d5d_story.html
Related:
To Counter China, U.S. Looks to Invest Billions More Overseas
Skim Reading and Cognitive Impatience
Skim reading is the new normal. The effect on society is profound
Maryanne Wolf notes:
“Increasing reports from educators and from researchers in psychology and the humanities bear this out. English literature scholar and teacher Mark Edmundson describes how many college students actively avoid the classic literature of the 19th and 20th centuries because they no longer have the patience to read longer, denser, more difficult texts. We should be less concerned with students’ “cognitive impatience,” however, than by what may underlie it: the potential inability of large numbers of students to read with a level of critical analysis sufficient to comprehend the complexity of thought and argument found in more demanding texts, whether in literature and science in college, or in wills, contracts and the deliberately confusing public referendum questions citizens encounter in the voting booth.”
Losing Allies: Rising Toll from America's Erratic Foreign Policy
Bullies Don’t Win at Diplomacy
Justin Trudeau Can’t Take Any More Humiliation
Erratic US Foreign Policy affects US-India ties
““The White House approach to every country now is that we want you to cave on these random issues we have chosen, which are prioritized by nothing more than presidential whim,” said Michael Green, a top Asia adviser to President George W. Bush. “And you have to visibly lose on them. There are no win-wins.””
Europe's Quest for Financial Independence
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